Showing posts with label Moneyball draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Moneyball draft. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Scouting Reports on Abilene Christian and Southern Arkansas

On Sunday February 19th, we watched Southern Arkansas at Abilene Christian (we watched the first game of the double header, but didn't stay for the 2nd). Abilene's starting pitcher was Brady Rodriquez. He is a lanky 6-1 180 LBS pitcher, who didn't throw real hard and seemed to fit the bill "crafty lefty" quite well. Here is a video of him warming up (he threw harder than he did warming up, we weren't actually quite concerned when we saw him warming up):




Rodriquez had a loopy breaking ball that he could throw for strikes, but it also seemed to stay up, and that problem got worse as the game moved along. He did have problems throwing strikes at times, with two walks and a HBP. He struck out just 2, and only had 1 swinging strike (but 11 looking). Neither starting pitcher had swing and miss stuff, and it produced a ton of foul balls. Rodriquez was hit pretty hard too, giving up 3 line drives, 5 fly-balls, and just 3 grounders. He gave up 5 hits and 5 runs, with a balk in 3 and 2/3rds. Rodriguez originally went to Ball State but transfered after he was red-shirted, and was awful in his Freshman year at Abilene, giving up nearly 2 hits an inning with an ERA of 9.99.

Souther Arkansas' starting pitcher was Janson Carr, a 6-4 225 LBS Sophomore, who also plays 3rd base. He threw harder than Rodriquez, but had some kind of "shot put" like delivery. His pitches, unlike Rodriquez's, stayed up very high. He didn't strike out any one and hit 1 batter (but walked no one). Abilene was pretty patient and made pretty good contact, fouling off a bunch of pitches and hitting 4 line drives off Carr. He only got 1 swinging strike and 9 looking strikes. He got 3 ground-balls to 2 fly-balls. He end up giving up 5 runs off 6 hits in 2 and 2/3rds:



Abilene's relievers were much more impressive, beginning with Jordon Herrera a 6-3 200 LBS JR. who went to Wharton College where he had a 3.71 ERA in 2011, better than his team average of 4.52. In high school as a senior, Herrera a 1.69 ERA and was on the Houston area all-star team. Against Southern Arkansas, he gave up no fly-balls or line drives, and got 5 grounders (4 of which snuck by for hits, the defense was awful in the game as a whole, more on that later). He had nasty breaking stuff that led to 7 swinging strikes and 6 looking (it also led to 2 wild pitches). He struck out 4 batters, but let 2 inherited runs score in 1 2/3rd. No one on either team was chasing pitches out of he zone before Jordan Herrera came in and he had Southern Arkansas chasing.



Austin Palmer was brought in as a lefty specialist and faced just one batter, walking him and getting one strike looking. He had a strange deceptive delivery that tried to hide the ball. Palmer is a junior who spent 2 years at American River College. He was 6-4 but didn't seem to get a whole lot of velocity on the ball. At American River, they tried to use him as a starter, and it was a disaster, with an ERA near 7 in 2010 and a 6.74 ERA in 2011. He had exactly as many walks as strikeouts in those two years. He is certainly a LOOGY, but one that doesn't seem to over power or have much control:



Sam Malchar was another junior from Wharton College, at 6-1 and 200 LBS. He had a big stride in his delivery and had a 3.79 ERA as a Sophomore in 2011. His biggest problem was that he left his breaking ball up quite a bit. He got one ground-ball and one fly-ball, with one walk and no strikeouts (2 looking strikes):





The 9th inning man was junior Josh Stone, who was a power type pitcher that threw reasonably hard. He previously went to Richland College as a freshman, where he had a 7.88 ERA. However, as a Sophomore at Midland College, he was pretty good, striking out 7.56 per 9 innings (you would like for him to strike out more) with an ERA of 1.75 and striking out 3 times as many as he walked. He got 1 swinging strike, 4 looking strikes, and 2 strikeouts. The only contact he gave up was a fly-ball:





For Southern Arkansas, the bullpen was not impressive, as Joey Cifuentes was the first pitcher out of the bullpen, and the senior had control issues with a wild pitch and just struggled to throw strikes. He walked 1, got 2 ground-balls with 1 line drive, and 3 strikes looking. In 2/3rds of an inning, he gave up 1 hit and no runs:



Devin Avery had a violent delivery, and left his breaking ball up in the zone. This led to the ball really getting smacked around as he gave up 2 hits, 3 runs in 1/3rds of an inning. He gave up 2 line drives and hit a batter, getting 3 strikes looking but no ground-balls or swinging strikes:





Justin Parsons wasn't any better, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits in 2 innings. He had a wild pitch, but he got 3 swinging strikes with a strikeout (5 looking strikes). He gave up 2 ground-balls and 2 fly-balls.



Sheldon O'Dell was the best Southern Arkansas pitcher, but still walked 2 and only struck out 1. He had a delivery that started slow with a pause and then fast. He got 4 looking strikes and 3 swinging. He had 2 wild pitches, with a fly-ball as his only contact given up.



The most impressive position player by far was Rodge Macy, who is listed as a catcher but played right field. He has a good build as a junior at 6-2 210, playing previously at Vernon College. In 2011, in 94 AB, he had a .362 BA and .419 OBP with 6 SB and 8 CS (0 HRs). He certainly had the best at-bats in the game, with a 6 pitch line drive, 6 pitch HBP, 5 pitch line drive, and 5 pitch HBP (he also made a pretty controversial, at least the call was, out on the base paths). If he can catch (as we will see later, the Abilene catcher was good behind the plate and that is probably why we didn't see Macy there) and hit for some more power, he could be pretty valuable. Here is Macy:

                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Abilene's 1st Baseman was Duncan Blades, an extremely small first baseman at 5-10 180 LBS. The senior made a good throw home that got a runner, but also dropped a very easy fly-ball. He had a Sac Bunt, a 2 pitch liner, a 7 pitch walk, and a 7 pitch line drive. Obviously the 3 real at-bats were good, but the size is really concerning, the roster has him listed as an infielder and not exclusively as a 1st baseman. He has hit over .300 in all 3 years in college with a .343 average in 2011 as a junior. You do need more than just 3 homers in slightly over 100 at bats though. 

Luke Mejia played in the infield, and the junior bunted for a hit, and had 2 ground-balls averaging 3.5 pitches per a plate appearance in those at bats. On defense he showed a lack of range. Here are a couple of videos of him that were already on Youtube (as you can see there is not much going on with the bat):

                
                                                              Emmett Niland was the catcher, who also pitches (but didn't pitch in the game). He showed why with a good arm, and he threw out a base runner. He bunted himself out by hitting himself with the ball outside of the batting box, had a 6 pitch ground-ball, a 6 pitch walk, and a 3 pitch ground-ball. He really is small as a catcher at 5-10 and 180 LBS, and one would imagine that lack of height doesn't help him with velocity as a pitcher. He hit .316 and .288 with 2 home runs in his 2 years in junior college. It is a shame that he doesn't really project as a hitter, because he does have a nice arm behind the plate. 

Tyler Eager played center field, but is also listed as being able to play first (although he is also small for that position, it is bizarre that Abilene seems unable to find a big 1st basemen). He is just a freshman out of a high school in Fort Worth, Texas. He hit 3 fly-balls (averaging 4 pitches per plate appearance in those at-bats) and a line drive. He may be someone to watch out for in the future:

 

Chuck Duarte was another infielder that didn't show much range, partly because he is really slow (as he showed on the base paths). He had a sac bunt, a 1 pitch line drive, and a 3 pitch ground-ball. So not impressive with the bat, but he had a .457 OBP at Western Texas College in 2011 as a Sophomore, but made 10 errors with a fielding percentage of .962. He will have to hit the cover off the ball at Abilene to really make up for lack of tools.

Ryan Luckie came in as a pinch hitter, and plays the infield. The senior had a 6 pitch strikeout and a 2 pitch fly-ball.

Travis Schuetze played some brutal 3rd base by missing a ground-ball, making an error on another easy play, and missing another line drive. He compounded this by being a pretty bad base-runner. He hit two grounders, walked and struck out. 

Mike Keegan had a nice size, at 6-2 215 as an outfielder who also catches according to the team roster. He hit a liner on a 4 pitch at bat and a grounder on a 3 pitch at bat. Last year at American River College, he did a good job of getting on base, but didn't slug much, with an OPS of .937. One would expect his size to improve his slugging, but we will have to see. 

Finally, Abilene's DH was Kyle Conwell, and he was listed at 6-1 200 LBS, but appeared lanky. One would have to count on the junior filling out. He hit .330 with 6 homers at Western Nevada as a freshman, and had a .491 OBP at Western Nevada as a sophomore. He was drafted in the 22nd round of the draft out of high school, but obviously didn't sign. He saw 13 pitches in 3 AB, and had two grounders and a line drive. He didn't particularly stand out to us, but he has hit in JUCO, and is obviously a prospect. He evidently cannot field, as he has played DH every where he has been.

For Southern Arkansas, Rafael Thomas had 2 errant throws, and was not fast (at least as fast as he thought he was) as he was caught stealing and then thrown out at home. As a senior, he is 5-8 180 LBS. He had a 5 pitch walk, a line drive and a 2 pitch ground-ball.Here is a picture of his batting stance, I still can't figure out who it reminds me of: 



Jody Spain played 2nd base, and is a 5-11 175 LBS senior. He had a 3 pitch FB, a ground-ball and 2 strikeouts. 

Ryan Bell had problems at third, as he should of caught a foul ball and made an ugly throwing error. He had 2 ground-balls and a line drive:

 

Trey Buck played some of the worst shortstop I have ever seen. He had a bad dive on a ball up the middle that gave him no chance, had a terrible arm, and made 3 fielding errors on balls hit right to him. I thought basic baseball wisdom was that you play your best infielder at shortstop. Southern Arkansas is in some serious trouble if Buck is their best infielder. He is listed at 5-7, but that is very generous. He had 3 ground-balls (in which he say 15 pitches), and a 5 pitch walk. Unless he was a world class bat, which he's not, it wouldn't make up for his bad defense. 

Kyle Fillier had two long at bats, averaging 7.5 pitches per plate appearance, but they both ended with strikeouts, 1 looking and 1 swinging. The senior was pinch hit for by a junior: Philip Menou. Menou had one of the worst bat speeds you will ever see. He is 6-6 and listed at 220 LBS (probably a bit smaller), so good size, but he had two awful at bats where he had a 3 pitch strikeout and a check swing ground-ball. 

David Allday played 1st base, and made a nice stretch play but made a bad throw. The senior swung at low pitches, and had 2 ground-balls and 2 fly-balls averaging 3.75 pitches per plate appearance. Jason Dahl played RF with not much range, and hit 3 fly-balls and struck out. Outfielder Gavan McCauley played center and missed a ball on a dive and has a pretty weak arm. He had 2 ground-balls (averaging 4 pitches per plate appearance in those two PA), with a walk. Catcher Ryan Dardenne saw 12 pitches in 3 plate appearances with a line drive, strikeout, and a fly-ball.

Thanks again to David Withers (Big D from Football picking), who is on Twitter at @davidwithers18.

Monday, January 30, 2012

MLB Draft Talk: High Schoolers or College Players?

College and High School baseball is about to start. So even though we are several months away from the baseball draft, teams are already sending out scouts across the nation to look at prospects. So yeah, its time to start thinking about the draft. Here, I wanted to see which players are usually better choices, high school players or college players.
Since 1965:
1st overall picks (rated according to WAR):
The top 6 Players are out of high school. Only 3 out of top 10 were out of college. 19.5 WAR was "average" for each player selected first overall. Excluding 2008, 2010-2011, the 3 players drafted first overall that did not make the majors were all out of high school. Out of the 8 with negative WAR, 4 were out of college, 4 were out of high school. Out of the 27 (that's excluding the 2008, and 2010-2011 picks) "under-average" 1st overall picks, 14 were out of high school, so about split.

2nd overall
4 out of the best 5 went to college. Excluding the 2010-2011 picks, 13 players either had negative WARs or didn't play in the Majors. 8 of them were drafted straight out of high school. The 2nd overall pick averaged just 12.4 WAR. That is a big drop off from the 1st overall pick, so in 2012 there will be a big expected difference from the player the Astros get opposed to the one the Twins get at number 2 overall.

In the first round of the "Moneyball" draft of 2002, the top 4 players all came out of high school. Only 3 of the top 10 came out of college, and 2 of them were drafted by the Athletics. Only 5 out of the 14 that never made the MLB were drafted straight out of high school. Every single player, except 1, that reached the Majors and had a 0 or negative WAR was out of college. In the 2003 draft, 3 of the top 5 were out of college, while 11 of the 18 players that didn't make the Majors or had negative WARs were out of high school. However, in 2004-2006, 4 of the top 5 were college players each year.

When we look at all the pitchers drafted in the first round since '65, 51% of high school pitchers made the Majors. Those players averaged a 5.9 WAR. When you add Junior College players into this list, the same amount make the Majors, but the average WAR goes up to 6.1. When College players are added, we go up to 58% of players making the Majors. However, the average WAR for those players is 5.8. In round 2, 42% of all draftees make the Majors, and those average a 5.2 WAR. High schoolers in the 2nd round made the Majors 36% of the time, but had an average WAR of 6. Junior College players reached the Majors just 28% of the time and those players had a WAR of just 4.6 on average. So it seems that high school players have much higher ceilings, while college players are less risky, but provide less reward (and Junior College players are hit and miss).

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Rangers Prospect Michael Olt

As the Arizona Fall League has gotten underway, one of the best hitters so far has been Michael Olt, a 3rd basemen in the Texas Rangers organization. So far, Olt has walked as much as he has struck out, has an OBP of .550, an OPS of 1.750 and 18 total bases in just 4 games. This is a small sample for sure, but it catches the eye. Olt was a first round pick by the Rangers' in 2010, and played college ball at Connecticut. At UConn, he put together a .401 OBP, and 1013 OPS. This wasn't just a Billy Beane special "he gets on base in college" guy though, he had a 2.59 PPG in his time there. The production he was putting up would get him on anyone's radar. So far, he has only played in different levels of A ball in the minors. So far, he has been very very good with the bat, .386 OPS, 867 OPS, 1.6 PAPP, and 1.53 PPG. While clearly ready for the next level with the bat, he has been terrible in the field, with just a .945 fielding percentage, and 2.62 Range factor. This should be concerning, and the Rangers may think about switching his position, but so far the bat more than makes up for the terrible defense. We will more than likely get to see him at AA this year, and if that goes well, he should be in the Majors in the next couple of years.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Nick Swisher

Mr. Moneyball himself, Nick Swisher, the first round pick by Billy Beane's A's in the 2002 draft, has an option year on his contract with the Yankees for 2012. The option is 10.25 million, with a 1 million year buyout (which means that if the Yankees decide to decline the option and allow him to be a free agent, they have to give him a million dollars). By definition, if the Yankees select to buy him out, the WAR they would get would be 0, and a 2000 WASP (ironically under the Halladay Standard). In 2011, Swisher gave the Yankees a 3.4 WAR, which would be right around the Halladay Standard under a 10.25 million dollar salary. His average WAR in the past 3 seasons has been 3.8, which would be make him below the Halladay Standard next year. Strangely, 2011 was his best defensive season, at a 1.1 WAR. It is hard to imagine he will put up that kind of season again. His offensive WAR, at 2.3, was lower than it had been in 09 and 10. Is this something that should be expected to continue? Or is it an aberration? This is the big question the Yankees have to face. Remember in the Vernon Wells and Adam Dunn article that there are not very many tells as to whether a player is losing it or not. That is, except for OBP. Nick Swisher has a career .360 OBP, a solid number, but one almost expects it to be better. In 2011, his OBP was .374, his best as a Yankee. His OPS was slightly smaller than it has been as a Yankee, at .822. His PPG was 1.27 in '11, slightly lower than his career 1.3. His PAPP was 2.49 in '11, better than his 2.56 career PAPP. So traditional numbers seem to say that Swisher is fine. What do the advanced metrics say? According to the Secondary Average, Swisher was better in 2011 than 2010 and about where he has been his whole career, and his "total average" was exactly the same as it has been his whole career. His isolated slugging is slightly discouraging, as hit was quite a bit lower than his career number. He is still seeing over 4 pitches per plate appearance, as he has his whole career. Most of his strike percentage metrics are exactly the same as they have been his whole career. He has never ran real well, but he grounded into more double plays than he has ever before. However, there really isn't much else to be concerned about in my opinion. I guess one could be concerned that his power might be waning, but he is only 30, so this seems unlikely. It seems worth it to pick up Swisher's option, and I expect the Yankees to do it, especially with their cash flow. A smaller moneyed club might want to pay the million dollars, and decline the option and see if they can get more efficiency elsewhere.