Showing posts with label Nick Swisher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nick Swisher. Show all posts

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Trying to establish a college metric

There are about 350 players in the Majors that played Division 1 College Baseball. As college baseball drafting has become more important in the past decade (thanks to things like Moneyball), it seems crucial to develop a metric to measure the difference between Division 1 and the Major Leagues. I used Baseball Cube for the statistics, and they did not have most college stats before 2000, which is fine (I could have found them elsewhere), because we can stick to basically a decade of college baseball. I also did not include players that had a small number of at-bats at either the Majors or College. I excluded Rickie Weeks because his crazy numbers (3.9 PPG, .94 ABPP) would have skewed the data, and if anyone puts up those kinds of stats in college, of course you draft them. Anyone else missed is due to human error.
Alex Avila: In College: 1.95 ABPP (same as PAPP except using ABs instead of PAs for convenience purposes), 1.92 PPG, and 947 OPS. In Majors: 2.2 ABPP, .96 PPG, 815 OPS.
Matt Downs: In College: 2.25 ABPP, 1.7 PPG,and 822 OPS. In Majors: 2.68 ABPP, .65 PPG, and 741 OPS.
Trevor Crowe: In College: 1.75 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1016 OPS. In Majors: 2.85 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 625 OPS
Nick Hundley: In College: 1.87 ABPP, 1.8 PPG, and 1004 OPS. In Majors: 2.71 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 734 OPS
Travis Buck: In College: 1.74 ABPP, 2.2 PPG, and 981 OPS. In Majors: 2.65 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 727 OPS.
Brooks Conrad: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 928 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .54 PPG, and 733 OPS.
Ike Davis: In College: 1.91 ABPP, 2.38 PPG, and 1015 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.19 PPG, and 817 OPS
Andre Ethier: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 1035 OPS. In Majors: 2.28 ABPP, 1.16 PPG, and 843 OPS.
Dustin Pedroia: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 2.1 PPG, and 1010 OPS. In Majors: 2.17 ABPP, 1.37 PPG, and 837 OPS
Brett Wallace: In College: 1.5 ABPP, 2.71 PPG, and 1197OPS. In Majors: 2.82 ABPP, .61 PPG, and 677 OPS.
Craig Gentry: In College: 2.09 ABPP, 1.57 PPG, and 846 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .75 PPG, and 620 OPS. 

David Murphy: In College: 1.89 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 967 OPS. In Majors: 2.37 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 786 OPS
Kelly Shoppach: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 2 PPG, and 1047 OPS. In Majors: 2.71 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 732 OPS.
Nolan Reimold: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 1.96 PPG, and 1127 OPS. In Majors: 2.322 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 779 OPS
Brent Morel: In College: 2.28 ABPP, 1.65 PPG, and 892 OPS. In Majors: 3.03 ABPP, .82 PPG, and 657 OPS.
Kurt Suzuki: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 1.88 PPG, and 1090 OPS. In Majors: 2.78 ABPP, .99 PPG, and 706 OPS
Justin Turner: In College: 2.2 ABPP, 1.65 PPG, and 823 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, .85 PPG, and 666 OPS
John Baker: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.31 PPG, and 939 OPS. In Majors: 2.4 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 757 OPS.
Brennan Boesch: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 936 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, 1.16 PPG, and 766 OPS.
Allen Craig: In College 2.11 ABPP, 1.56 PPG, and 867 OPS. In Majors: 2.34 ABPP, 1.03 PPG, and 842 OPS.
Conor Jackson: In College 1.71 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 1031 OPS. Majors: 2.38 ABPP, 1.01 PPG, and 757 OPS.
Xavier Nady: In College: 1.7 ABPP,  2.55 PPG, and 1074 OPS. Majors: 2.67 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 766 OPS
Tony Campana: In College: 1.84 ABPP, 1.97 PPG, and 784 OPS. Majors: 2.1 ABPP, .58 PPG, and 603 OPS.
Kevin Youkilis: In College: 1.19 ABPP, 3.14 PPG, and 1264 OPS. Majors: 2.07 ABPP, 1.4 PPG, and 883 OPS.
Jeff Baker: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 2.56 PPG, and 1048 OPS. In Majors: 2.63 ABPP, .78 PPG, and 758 OPS
Brett Gardner: In College: 1.64 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 963 OPS. In Majors: 2.08 ABPP, 1.14 PPG, and 721 OPS
Brian Bixler: In College: 1.65 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 1024 OPS. In Majors: 3.79 ABPP, .29 PPG, and 495 OPS.
Mark Ellis: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 914 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.05 PPG, and 728 OPS.
Matt LaPorta: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 2.25 PPG, and 1140 OPS. In Majors: 2.75 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 701 OPS
David Ross: In College: 2.05 ABPP, 1.41 PPG, and 916 OPS. In Majors: 2.44 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 768 OPS.
Stephen Drew: In College: 1.54 ABPP, 2.91 PPG, and 1177 OPS. In Majors: 2.54 ABPP, 1.09 PPG, and 773 OPS
Buster Posey: In College: 1.6 ABPP, 2.41 PPG, and 1113 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, 1.18 PPG, and 815 OPS
Casey McGehee: In College: 2.16 ABPP, 1.59 PPG, and 883 OPS. In Majors: 2.63 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 746 OPS.
Gordon Beckham: In College: 2.29 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 1048 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, .99 PPG, and 704 OPS.
Jeff Keppinger: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1074 OPS. In Majors: 2.73 ABPP, .85 PPG, and 720 OPS
Mark Teixeira: In College: 1.21 ABPP, 3.26 PPG, and 1319 OPS. In Majors: 2.10 ABPP, 1.62 PPG, and 904 OPS.
Matt Wieters: In College: 1.58 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1071 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 743 OPS.
Jason Bay: In College: 1.43 ABPP, 2.6 PPG, and 1150 OPS. In Majors: 2.06 ABPP, 1.48 PPG, and 863 OPS
Michael Bourn: In College: 1.67 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 802 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 694 OPS.
Rob Johnson: In College: 2.22 ABPP, 1.75 PPG and 868 OPS. In Majors: 3.17 ABPP, .57 PPG, and 573 OPS.
Chris Snyder: 1.68 ABPP, 2.04 PPG and 1035 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, .87 PPG, and 727 OPS.
Daniel Murphy: 1.91 ABPP, 1.64 PPG, and 917 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .93 PPG, and 784 OPS
Emmanuel Burris: 1.83 ABPP, 1.91 PPG, and 797 OPS. In Majors: 2.74 ABPP, .64 PPG, 592 OPS.
Danny Espinosa: In College: 2.32 ABPP, 1.49 PPG, and 850 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.15 PPG, and 735 OPS.
Evan Longoria: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.56 PPG and 924 OPS. In Majors: 2.13 ABPP, 1.58 PPG, and 874 OPS.
Troy Tulowitzki: In College: 2.33 ABPP, 1.58 PPG and 873 OPS. In Majors: 2.19 ABPP, 1.51 PPG, and 869 OPS
Jonathan Lucroy: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.98 PPG and 1028 OPS. In Majors: 2.83 ABPP, .83 PPG and 674 OPS
Aaron Hill: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 2.14 PPG, and 1007 OPS. In Majors: 2.74 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 737 OPS.
Dan Uggla: In College: 1.74 ABPP, 2.14 PPG, and 1041 OPS. In Majors: 2.31 ABPP, 1.43 PPG, and 824 OPS
Ryan Braun: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.75 PPG, and 1121 OPS. In Majors: 2.01 ABPP, 1.78 PPG, and 933 OPS
Jon Jay: In College: 1.66 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 996 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, .72 PPG and 773 OPS
Gaby Sanchez: In College: 2.12 ABPP, 1.94 PPG, and 881 OPS. In Majors: 2.36 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 786 OPS.
Danny Valencia: In College: 2.19 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 864 OPS. In Majors: 2.77 ABPP, .97 PPG, 720 OPS
Jemile Weeks: In College: 1.76 ABPP, 2.15 PPG, and 1000 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 761 OPS.
Chris Getz: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 1.72 PPG, and 877 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, .86 PPG, and 622 OPS.
Michael McKenry: In College: 1.85 ABPP, 1.86 PPG, and 1016 OPS. In Majors: 3.3 ABPP, .47 PPG, and 577 OPS.
Mitch Moreland: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 955 OPS. In Majors: 2.46 ABPP, 1.03 PPG, and 758 OPS.
Craig Tatum: In College: 2.4 ABPP, 1.64 PPG, and 859 OPS. In Majors: 3.06 ABPP, .46 PPG and 554 OPS
Ian Kinsler: In College: 1.98 ABPP, 1.78 PPG, and 849 OPS. In Majors: 2.12 ABPP, 1.57 PPG, and 824 OPS
Alex Gordon: In College: 1.5 ABPP, 2.4 PPG, and 1140 OPS. In Majors: 2.38 ABPP, 1.18 PPG and 777 OPS
Chris Gimenez: In College: 2 ABPP, 1.77 PPG, and 1061 OPS. In Majors: 2.92 ABPP, .53 PPG, and 551 OPS
Brett Hayes: In College 2.1 ABPP, 1.99 PPG, and 903 OPS. In Majors: 2.95 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 701 OPS.
Dustin Ackley: In College: 1.54 ABPP, 2.45 PPG, and 1137 OPS. In Majors: 2.33 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 766 OPS.
Chris Iannetta: In College: 1.9 ABPP, 1.89 PPG, and 971 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.10 PPG, and 788 OPS.
Kyle Seager: In College: 1.91 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 968 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .77 PPG, and 691 OPS.
Nick Swisher: In College: 1.57 ABPP, 2.11 PPG, and 1064 OPS. In Majors: 2.16 ABPP, 1.3 PPG, and 826 OPS.
Jason Bartlett: In College: 2.29 ABPP, 1.54 PPG, and 776 OPS. In Majors: 2.51 ABPP, 1 PPG and 710 OPS.
Greg Dobbs: In College: 1.7 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 1145 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 713 OPS
Luke Scott: In College: 1.57 ABPP, 2.22 PPG and 1095 OPS. In Majors: 2.26 ABPP, 1.1 PPG, and 843 OPS.
Chris Coghlan: In College: 1.94 ABPP, 1.9 PPG, and 899 OPS. In Majors: 2.47 ABPP, 1.12 PPG, and 764 OPS.
Alex Presley: In College: 2.17 ABPP, 1.49 PPG, and 880 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, .89 PPG, and 784 OPS.
Seth Smith: In College: 2.02 ABPP, 1.59 PPG, and 883 OPS. In Majors: 2.29 ABPP, .92 PPG and 833 OPS.
Matt Tolbert: In College: 2.26 ABPP, 1.29 PPG, and 758 OPS. In Majors: 3.01 ABPP, .61 PPG, and 607 OPS.
Darwin Barney: In College: 2.06 ABPP, 1.73 PPG, and 803 OPS. In Majors: 3.01 ABPP, .77 PPG, and 656 OPS.
Jacoby Ellsbury: In College: 1.66 ABPP, 2.16 PPG, and 985 OPS. In Majors: 2.13 ABPP, 1.58 PPG, and 807 OPS.
Eric Thames: In College: 1.78 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1030 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, 1.15 PPG, and 769 OPS
Danny Worth: In College: 2.42 ABPP, 1.39 PPG, and 803 OPS. In Majors: 3.11 ABPP, .43 PPG, and 648 OPS
Will Venable: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.96 PPG, and 906 OPS. In Majors: 2.37 ABPP, 1.08 PPG and 731 OPS
Mark Teahen: In College: 1.72 ABPP, 1.6 PPG, and 980 OPS. In Majors: 2.58 ABPP, 1 PPG, and 736 OPS
Tony Gwynn Jr. In College: 1.94 ABPP, 1.9 PPG, and 843 OPS. In Majors: 2.54 ABPP, .59 PPG, and 643 OPS
David Freese: In College: 1.71 ABPP, 2.4 PPG, and 1072 OPS. In Majors: 2.5 ABPP, 1.05 PPG, and 780 OPS.
Adam Lind: In College: 1.88 ABPP, 2.09 PPG, and 1039 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, 1.25 PPG, and 782 OPS
Steve Pearce: In College 1.82 ABPP, 2.29 PPG, and 1098 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .63 PPG, and 668 OPS
Landon Powell: In College: 1.9 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 956 OPS. In Majors: 2.95 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 612 OPS
Justin Smoak: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 2.35 PPG, and 1105 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, .94 PPG, and 701 OPS
Chris Carter: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 1.4 PPG, and 951 OPS. In Majors: 2.84 ABPP, .47 PPG, and 689 OPS
Jason Castro: In College: 2.13 ABPP, 1.5 PPG, and 857 OPS. In Majors: 3.05 ABPP, .54 PPG, 573 OPS.
Sam Fuld: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 874 OPS. In Majors: 2.45 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 685 OPS
Jed Lowrie: In College: 1.77 ABPP, 1.97 PPG, and 994 OPS. In Majors: 2.58 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 732 OPS
John Mayberry: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 1.84 PPG, and 908 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .92 PPG, and 846 OPS
Carlos Quentin: In College: 1.95 ABPP, 2.08 PPG, and 1004 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, 1.37 PPG, and 836 OPS
Chris Johnson: In College: 1.88 ABPP, 2 PPG, and 1030 OPS. In Majors: 2.91 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 725 OPS.
J.P. Arencibia: In College: 2.02 ABPP, 1.98 PPG, and 965 OPS. In Majors: 2.9 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 706 OPS.
Chase Headley: In College: 1.61 ABPP, 1.7 PPG, and 1024 OPS. In Majors: 2.42 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 735 OPS.
 Omar Quintanilla: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 915 OPS. In Majors: 3.39 ABPP, .45 PPG, and 552 OPS.
Drew Stubbs: In College: 1.76 ABPP, 2.2 PPG, and 923 OPS. In Majors: 2.3 ABPP, 1.35 PPG, and 731 OPS.
Cliff Pennington: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 1.87 PPG, and 899 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .92 PPG, and 695 OPS.
Justin Ruggiano: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.71 PPG, and 897 OPS. In Majors: 3.2 ABPP, .55 PPG, and 621 OPS.
Mitch Maier: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.54 PPG, and 1118 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, .68 PPG, and 678 OPS.
Casper Wells: In College: 1.86 ABPP, 2.1 PPG, and 1106 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .81 PPG, and 801 OPS.
Brian Bogusevic: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.72 PPG, and 896 OPS. In Majors:2.53 ABPP, .51 PPG, and 767 OPS.
Daniel Delscalso: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.63 PPG, and 932 OPS. In Majors: 2.73 ABPP, .48 PPG, and 683 OPS
Skip Schumaker: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 1.61 PPG, and 914 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .75 PPG, 724 OPS.
Ryan Spilborghs: In College: 1.78 ABPP, 2.02 PPG, and 960 OPS. In Majors: 2.4 ABPP, .83 PPG, and 768 OPS
Drew Butera: In College: 2.21 ABPP, 1.39 PPG, and 800 OPS. In Majors: 4.37 ABPP, .5 PPG, and 481 OPS
Brandon Crawford: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 1.84 PPG, and 891 OPS. In Majors: 3.06 ABPP, .71 PPG, and 584 OPS
Ben Francisco: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 903 OPS. In Majors: 2.51 ABPP, .93 PPG, and 762 OPS.
Chase Utley: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 2.62 PPG, and 1039 OPS. In Majors: 2.12 ABPP, 1.55 PPG, and 882 OPS.
Lucus Duda: In College: 2.23 ABPP, 1.18 PPG, and 784 OPS. In Majors: 2.42 ABPP, .98 PPG, and 815 OPS.
Hunter Pence: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.93 PPG, and 1006 OPS. In Majors: 2.39 ABPP, 1.33 PPG, and 828 OPS
Ryan Roberts: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.41 PPG, and 1182 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 748 OPS
Scott Sizemore:  In College: 1.86 ABPP, 2.04 PPG, and 948 OPS. In Majors: 2.48 ABPP, 1 PPG, and 711 OPS.
Mark Reynolds: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 2.07 PPG, and 900 OPS. In Majors: 2.25 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 815 OPS.
Ryan Zimmerman: In College: 2.1 ABPP, 1.76 PPG, and 942 OPS. In Majors: 2.31 ABPP, 1.35 PPG, and 834 OPS.
Brent Lillibridge: In College: 1.72 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 1028 OPS. In Majors: 2.78 ABPP, .72 PPG, and 671 OPS.
Adam Rosales: In College: 1.89 ABPP, 1.75 PPG, and 875 OPS. In Majors: 2.98 ABPP, .65 PPG, and 630 OPS.
Andy Dirks: In College: 1.67 ABPP, 2.22 PPG, and 970 OPS. In Majors: 2.88 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 703 OPS.
The 117 players averaged a 1.87 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 982 OPS in College. In the Majors: 2.59 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 732 OPS. On average, players add .72 to their ABPP and lose -1.06 PPG and .250 from their OPS from Division 1 to the Majors. I will use this metric to grade current college players.






Sunday, October 9, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Nick Swisher

Mr. Moneyball himself, Nick Swisher, the first round pick by Billy Beane's A's in the 2002 draft, has an option year on his contract with the Yankees for 2012. The option is 10.25 million, with a 1 million year buyout (which means that if the Yankees decide to decline the option and allow him to be a free agent, they have to give him a million dollars). By definition, if the Yankees select to buy him out, the WAR they would get would be 0, and a 2000 WASP (ironically under the Halladay Standard). In 2011, Swisher gave the Yankees a 3.4 WAR, which would be right around the Halladay Standard under a 10.25 million dollar salary. His average WAR in the past 3 seasons has been 3.8, which would be make him below the Halladay Standard next year. Strangely, 2011 was his best defensive season, at a 1.1 WAR. It is hard to imagine he will put up that kind of season again. His offensive WAR, at 2.3, was lower than it had been in 09 and 10. Is this something that should be expected to continue? Or is it an aberration? This is the big question the Yankees have to face. Remember in the Vernon Wells and Adam Dunn article that there are not very many tells as to whether a player is losing it or not. That is, except for OBP. Nick Swisher has a career .360 OBP, a solid number, but one almost expects it to be better. In 2011, his OBP was .374, his best as a Yankee. His OPS was slightly smaller than it has been as a Yankee, at .822. His PPG was 1.27 in '11, slightly lower than his career 1.3. His PAPP was 2.49 in '11, better than his 2.56 career PAPP. So traditional numbers seem to say that Swisher is fine. What do the advanced metrics say? According to the Secondary Average, Swisher was better in 2011 than 2010 and about where he has been his whole career, and his "total average" was exactly the same as it has been his whole career. His isolated slugging is slightly discouraging, as hit was quite a bit lower than his career number. He is still seeing over 4 pitches per plate appearance, as he has his whole career. Most of his strike percentage metrics are exactly the same as they have been his whole career. He has never ran real well, but he grounded into more double plays than he has ever before. However, there really isn't much else to be concerned about in my opinion. I guess one could be concerned that his power might be waning, but he is only 30, so this seems unlikely. It seems worth it to pick up Swisher's option, and I expect the Yankees to do it, especially with their cash flow. A smaller moneyed club might want to pay the million dollars, and decline the option and see if they can get more efficiency elsewhere.

Friday, October 7, 2011

So the Yankees are going to start relying on Eduardo Nunez?

It has been suggested by some baseball pundits that the Yankees believe that Eduardo Nunez will start playing a bigger role in the 2012 season. I have no way of knowing if this is true, so I just want to look at Nunez himself and look at how he might fare in the bigger role. He only sees 3.61 pitches per plate appearance in his major league career, and 3.67 in 2011. The league average is 3.82. He is a contact hitter, putting the ball in play 82% of the time. Contact hitting tends to be overrated, baseball history shows that you can strikeout a lot and still be very productive, and you can make a lot of contact, but still not get on base. His batting average on balls in play was only .286. For comparison, Corey Hart's was .333, and Mike Carp's was .343. He waked in only 6.5% of his plate appearances, well below the league average of 8.3%. His extra-base hits percentage is also below average (his is 6.9, the league average is 7.5), and only homers once every 60 at-bats. He was a big time groundball hitter in 2010, at 1.82 GB/FB ratio, but was down around league average in his 338 2011 plate appearances. His OBP is .314, well below league average, and in the minors, his OBP was never above .365, and that was in A-ball. In AAA, his OBP was just .340. His slugging and OPS are also well below league averages. He never even reached a OPS of .800 in the minors. He only had 38 runs created in 2011, and has a career .85 PPG (which is terrible) and 2.68 PAPP (not too bad, but not good). His stolen base percentage is also below 80%. This all adds up to a .4 Offensive War in 2011. His defense was even worse, at -1.1 D-WAR, adding up to a -.7 WAR. There is really nothing statistically that shows Nunez would have a breakout, or even decent, season if given more playing time. In fact, it looks like Nunez is set up to be a total disaster, both offensively and defensively.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

The Nick Swisher Trade

Before the 2008 season, Mr. Moneyball himself sent Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for Ryan Sweeney, Gio Gonzalez, and Fautino De Los Santos. Swisher spent a grand total of 1 year with the White Sox (he currently plays for the Yankees) and had just a .332 OBP with 24 bombs and 69 rbis, with a WAR of -.8 (he made 3.6 million that year). After the season, he was dealt to the Yankees (along with Kanekoa Texeira) for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez. Texeira never pitched in the big leagues for the Yankees (although he has appeared in games for the Mariners and Royals) so we will throw him out. Betemit had just 1 terrible year with the Sox, with a WAR of -.4 with a salary of 1.3 million. In Nunez and Marquez's short time with the Sox (neither are in the organization anymore) they each registered a -.1 WAR (because neither of their salaries were disclosed, we will assume it was the minimum $400,000, and we will do this again later on Santos). The four players drew $5,700,000 from the White Sox and posted a combined -1.4 WAR, giving them a combined 19380 WAR and Salary Per. The Athletics story looks much happier. Fautino De La Santos made his major league debut this year and has pitched pretty well with a 3.54 ERA and a .2 WAR (his salary is not released so we will assume $400,000). Since joining the A's in 08, Sweeney has posted a WAR of 6.7 (further salt in the wound, his WAR was negative as a member of the White Sox) and has received $2,625,000 in salary in that time. Gio Gonzalez has racked up a 6 WAR while collecting $1,635,000 from the Athletics. This gives the 3 a total of 12.9 WAR (meaning that those 3 guys alone have won 13 games for the Athletics, while the White Sox players lost games for the team). Adding their salary together and dividing it by their WAR gives them an incredible 361 WASP (they have a value similar to MVP candidate Jacoby Ellsbury). Both in overall performance and value, this was an extremely lopsided trade towards the A's. I guess there is a reason they wrote a book and made a movie about Billy Beane