Chris Marrero: Adam Laroche Insurance?

The Nationals are reportedly still in talks with Adam Laroche in an attempt to re-sign him. Of course, they don't have a deal yet, so it is not clear whether or not he will be returning. So if we played a little "what if" game and assumed that Laroche wasn't returning, what would be the Nationals options at first base? The most obvious option seems to be platooning Tyler Moore and Chad Tracy.
Another more inventive option, especially if they believe Anthony Rendon is ready, would be to move Ryan Zimmerman and his ugly throwing motion to 1st base. When you look at their minor league options from 2012 (using Baseball Reference's organizational depth chart), most of them weren't pretty. Mark DeRosa's (who was with the big league team in 2012) baseball career is probably over, Mark Teahen wasn't an option and signed elsewhere, Jason Michaels was terrible in AAA, AA first baseman Tim Pahuta is 29 years old, and Justin Bloxom is not ready for the Majors (at least not according to a cursory look at his career path/statistics). Enter an interesting 3rd option, one that the Nationals turned to, unsuccessfully, in 2011 for a short time:

Chris Marrero was a 1st round pick (15th overall) in 2006, and was even ranked as the 27th best prospect in baseball, despite playing mainly 1st base, by Baseball America in 2008. However, he struggled in 2011 (-1.1 WAA in 31 games) when he reached the Majors, and has had major injury issues. This combo caused Marrero to not reach the Majors in 2012. In fact, he played in 5 different minor league levels in 2012. He played just 53 games in all (37 in AAA) in 2012, thanks to a hamstring tear. In 2008, he broke his right fibula.

With that kind of injury history, there is not many empirical reasons to believe he will be healthy in 2013, though he was pretty healthy through 2009-2011. As a first baseman (he played the corner outfield positions before his injury in '08), he obviously lacks speed (2.0 speed score in 2011 in AAA, 2.5 in AAA in 2012), and he doesn't seem to be a good defensive 1st baseman either with bad FRAAs in 2012 and most of his career in the minors. With the bat, his 2012 was a disappointment, as he was terrible in AAA. In 2011, he was solid in AAA (129 wRC +, tied with Matt Hague), but not overwhelming for a first baseman, 6th in the International League. However, he was younger than all of the players above him. In fact, in 2012, no IL player 22 years or younger had a 129 wRC + or better (Starling Marte was 23). Dayan Viciedo was better in 2011, as was Jesus Montero and Freddie Freeman (both 20) in 2010. Obviously there are mixed results in the Majors with those players so far (Dustin Pedroia was the only player 22 years or younger with a 129 wRC + or better in the IL in either 2006 or 2007), but it does at least give the impression that Marrero was some kind of prospect before the 2012 injury. He has always been a guy with elite (or at least nearly elite) power but his reputation is of one that has struggled with breaking balls. The latter certainly played out in the Majors, as he struck out 27 times and walked just 4 times, with 0 homers and 5 doubles. His swing at the plate definitely needs a lot of work, as he keeps his hands low, and it really affects his swing path, which is not one you would expect from a power hitter. According to his swing maps, he was very aggressive (3.58 P/PA, which stabilizes very quickly), and had some serious holes in his swing.

Marrero is not really an option for 2013 for me. He should start in AAA while the Nationals exercise one of the options listed in the above paragraph (and exercise Marrero's 2nd option). In the minors, Marrero has been significantly better against lefties than he has against righties, especially when it comes to K/BB. Unfortunately, when he was in the Majors, he had to face a lot more righties than lefties. He may turn out to be just a platoon 1st baseman/pinch hitter or he could even be a AAAA hitter. He has put up legitimate numbers in the minors despite having serious holes that stop him from being a big league player. This, and the injuries that will continue to keep him off the field/diminish his skill set, really makes it hard to be a big fan of Marrero.

Trying to establish a college metric

There are about 350 players in the Majors that played Division 1 College Baseball. As college baseball drafting has become more important in the past decade (thanks to things like Moneyball), it seems crucial to develop a metric to measure the difference between Division 1 and the Major Leagues. I used Baseball Cube for the statistics, and they did not have most college stats before 2000, which is fine (I could have found them elsewhere), because we can stick to basically a decade of college baseball. I also did not include players that had a small number of at-bats at either the Majors or College. I excluded Rickie Weeks because his crazy numbers (3.9 PPG, .94 ABPP) would have skewed the data, and if anyone puts up those kinds of stats in college, of course you draft them. Anyone else missed is due to human error.
Alex Avila: In College: 1.95 ABPP (same as PAPP except using ABs instead of PAs for convenience purposes), 1.92 PPG, and 947 OPS. In Majors: 2.2 ABPP, .96 PPG, 815 OPS.
Matt Downs: In College: 2.25 ABPP, 1.7 PPG,and 822 OPS. In Majors: 2.68 ABPP, .65 PPG, and 741 OPS.
Trevor Crowe: In College: 1.75 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1016 OPS. In Majors: 2.85 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 625 OPS
Nick Hundley: In College: 1.87 ABPP, 1.8 PPG, and 1004 OPS. In Majors: 2.71 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 734 OPS
Travis Buck: In College: 1.74 ABPP, 2.2 PPG, and 981 OPS. In Majors: 2.65 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 727 OPS.
Brooks Conrad: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 928 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .54 PPG, and 733 OPS.
Ike Davis: In College: 1.91 ABPP, 2.38 PPG, and 1015 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.19 PPG, and 817 OPS
Andre Ethier: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 1035 OPS. In Majors: 2.28 ABPP, 1.16 PPG, and 843 OPS.
Dustin Pedroia: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 2.1 PPG, and 1010 OPS. In Majors: 2.17 ABPP, 1.37 PPG, and 837 OPS
Brett Wallace: In College: 1.5 ABPP, 2.71 PPG, and 1197OPS. In Majors: 2.82 ABPP, .61 PPG, and 677 OPS.
Craig Gentry: In College: 2.09 ABPP, 1.57 PPG, and 846 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .75 PPG, and 620 OPS. 

David Murphy: In College: 1.89 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 967 OPS. In Majors: 2.37 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 786 OPS
Kelly Shoppach: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 2 PPG, and 1047 OPS. In Majors: 2.71 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 732 OPS.
Nolan Reimold: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 1.96 PPG, and 1127 OPS. In Majors: 2.322 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 779 OPS
Brent Morel: In College: 2.28 ABPP, 1.65 PPG, and 892 OPS. In Majors: 3.03 ABPP, .82 PPG, and 657 OPS.
Kurt Suzuki: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 1.88 PPG, and 1090 OPS. In Majors: 2.78 ABPP, .99 PPG, and 706 OPS
Justin Turner: In College: 2.2 ABPP, 1.65 PPG, and 823 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, .85 PPG, and 666 OPS
John Baker: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.31 PPG, and 939 OPS. In Majors: 2.4 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 757 OPS.
Brennan Boesch: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 936 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, 1.16 PPG, and 766 OPS.
Allen Craig: In College 2.11 ABPP, 1.56 PPG, and 867 OPS. In Majors: 2.34 ABPP, 1.03 PPG, and 842 OPS.
Conor Jackson: In College 1.71 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 1031 OPS. Majors: 2.38 ABPP, 1.01 PPG, and 757 OPS.
Xavier Nady: In College: 1.7 ABPP,  2.55 PPG, and 1074 OPS. Majors: 2.67 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 766 OPS
Tony Campana: In College: 1.84 ABPP, 1.97 PPG, and 784 OPS. Majors: 2.1 ABPP, .58 PPG, and 603 OPS.
Kevin Youkilis: In College: 1.19 ABPP, 3.14 PPG, and 1264 OPS. Majors: 2.07 ABPP, 1.4 PPG, and 883 OPS.
Jeff Baker: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 2.56 PPG, and 1048 OPS. In Majors: 2.63 ABPP, .78 PPG, and 758 OPS
Brett Gardner: In College: 1.64 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 963 OPS. In Majors: 2.08 ABPP, 1.14 PPG, and 721 OPS
Brian Bixler: In College: 1.65 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 1024 OPS. In Majors: 3.79 ABPP, .29 PPG, and 495 OPS.
Mark Ellis: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 914 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.05 PPG, and 728 OPS.
Matt LaPorta: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 2.25 PPG, and 1140 OPS. In Majors: 2.75 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 701 OPS
David Ross: In College: 2.05 ABPP, 1.41 PPG, and 916 OPS. In Majors: 2.44 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 768 OPS.
Stephen Drew: In College: 1.54 ABPP, 2.91 PPG, and 1177 OPS. In Majors: 2.54 ABPP, 1.09 PPG, and 773 OPS
Buster Posey: In College: 1.6 ABPP, 2.41 PPG, and 1113 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, 1.18 PPG, and 815 OPS
Casey McGehee: In College: 2.16 ABPP, 1.59 PPG, and 883 OPS. In Majors: 2.63 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 746 OPS.
Gordon Beckham: In College: 2.29 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 1048 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, .99 PPG, and 704 OPS.
Jeff Keppinger: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1074 OPS. In Majors: 2.73 ABPP, .85 PPG, and 720 OPS
Mark Teixeira: In College: 1.21 ABPP, 3.26 PPG, and 1319 OPS. In Majors: 2.10 ABPP, 1.62 PPG, and 904 OPS.
Matt Wieters: In College: 1.58 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1071 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 743 OPS.
Jason Bay: In College: 1.43 ABPP, 2.6 PPG, and 1150 OPS. In Majors: 2.06 ABPP, 1.48 PPG, and 863 OPS
Michael Bourn: In College: 1.67 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 802 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 694 OPS.
Rob Johnson: In College: 2.22 ABPP, 1.75 PPG and 868 OPS. In Majors: 3.17 ABPP, .57 PPG, and 573 OPS.
Chris Snyder: 1.68 ABPP, 2.04 PPG and 1035 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, .87 PPG, and 727 OPS.
Daniel Murphy: 1.91 ABPP, 1.64 PPG, and 917 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .93 PPG, and 784 OPS
Emmanuel Burris: 1.83 ABPP, 1.91 PPG, and 797 OPS. In Majors: 2.74 ABPP, .64 PPG, 592 OPS.
Danny Espinosa: In College: 2.32 ABPP, 1.49 PPG, and 850 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.15 PPG, and 735 OPS.
Evan Longoria: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.56 PPG and 924 OPS. In Majors: 2.13 ABPP, 1.58 PPG, and 874 OPS.
Troy Tulowitzki: In College: 2.33 ABPP, 1.58 PPG and 873 OPS. In Majors: 2.19 ABPP, 1.51 PPG, and 869 OPS
Jonathan Lucroy: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.98 PPG and 1028 OPS. In Majors: 2.83 ABPP, .83 PPG and 674 OPS
Aaron Hill: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 2.14 PPG, and 1007 OPS. In Majors: 2.74 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 737 OPS.
Dan Uggla: In College: 1.74 ABPP, 2.14 PPG, and 1041 OPS. In Majors: 2.31 ABPP, 1.43 PPG, and 824 OPS
Ryan Braun: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.75 PPG, and 1121 OPS. In Majors: 2.01 ABPP, 1.78 PPG, and 933 OPS
Jon Jay: In College: 1.66 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 996 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, .72 PPG and 773 OPS
Gaby Sanchez: In College: 2.12 ABPP, 1.94 PPG, and 881 OPS. In Majors: 2.36 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 786 OPS.
Danny Valencia: In College: 2.19 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 864 OPS. In Majors: 2.77 ABPP, .97 PPG, 720 OPS
Jemile Weeks: In College: 1.76 ABPP, 2.15 PPG, and 1000 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 761 OPS.
Chris Getz: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 1.72 PPG, and 877 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, .86 PPG, and 622 OPS.
Michael McKenry: In College: 1.85 ABPP, 1.86 PPG, and 1016 OPS. In Majors: 3.3 ABPP, .47 PPG, and 577 OPS.
Mitch Moreland: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 955 OPS. In Majors: 2.46 ABPP, 1.03 PPG, and 758 OPS.
Craig Tatum: In College: 2.4 ABPP, 1.64 PPG, and 859 OPS. In Majors: 3.06 ABPP, .46 PPG and 554 OPS
Ian Kinsler: In College: 1.98 ABPP, 1.78 PPG, and 849 OPS. In Majors: 2.12 ABPP, 1.57 PPG, and 824 OPS
Alex Gordon: In College: 1.5 ABPP, 2.4 PPG, and 1140 OPS. In Majors: 2.38 ABPP, 1.18 PPG and 777 OPS
Chris Gimenez: In College: 2 ABPP, 1.77 PPG, and 1061 OPS. In Majors: 2.92 ABPP, .53 PPG, and 551 OPS
Brett Hayes: In College 2.1 ABPP, 1.99 PPG, and 903 OPS. In Majors: 2.95 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 701 OPS.
Dustin Ackley: In College: 1.54 ABPP, 2.45 PPG, and 1137 OPS. In Majors: 2.33 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 766 OPS.
Chris Iannetta: In College: 1.9 ABPP, 1.89 PPG, and 971 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.10 PPG, and 788 OPS.
Kyle Seager: In College: 1.91 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 968 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .77 PPG, and 691 OPS.
Nick Swisher: In College: 1.57 ABPP, 2.11 PPG, and 1064 OPS. In Majors: 2.16 ABPP, 1.3 PPG, and 826 OPS.
Jason Bartlett: In College: 2.29 ABPP, 1.54 PPG, and 776 OPS. In Majors: 2.51 ABPP, 1 PPG and 710 OPS.
Greg Dobbs: In College: 1.7 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 1145 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 713 OPS
Luke Scott: In College: 1.57 ABPP, 2.22 PPG and 1095 OPS. In Majors: 2.26 ABPP, 1.1 PPG, and 843 OPS.
Chris Coghlan: In College: 1.94 ABPP, 1.9 PPG, and 899 OPS. In Majors: 2.47 ABPP, 1.12 PPG, and 764 OPS.
Alex Presley: In College: 2.17 ABPP, 1.49 PPG, and 880 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, .89 PPG, and 784 OPS.
Seth Smith: In College: 2.02 ABPP, 1.59 PPG, and 883 OPS. In Majors: 2.29 ABPP, .92 PPG and 833 OPS.
Matt Tolbert: In College: 2.26 ABPP, 1.29 PPG, and 758 OPS. In Majors: 3.01 ABPP, .61 PPG, and 607 OPS.
Darwin Barney: In College: 2.06 ABPP, 1.73 PPG, and 803 OPS. In Majors: 3.01 ABPP, .77 PPG, and 656 OPS.
Jacoby Ellsbury: In College: 1.66 ABPP, 2.16 PPG, and 985 OPS. In Majors: 2.13 ABPP, 1.58 PPG, and 807 OPS.
Eric Thames: In College: 1.78 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1030 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, 1.15 PPG, and 769 OPS
Danny Worth: In College: 2.42 ABPP, 1.39 PPG, and 803 OPS. In Majors: 3.11 ABPP, .43 PPG, and 648 OPS
Will Venable: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.96 PPG, and 906 OPS. In Majors: 2.37 ABPP, 1.08 PPG and 731 OPS
Mark Teahen: In College: 1.72 ABPP, 1.6 PPG, and 980 OPS. In Majors: 2.58 ABPP, 1 PPG, and 736 OPS
Tony Gwynn Jr. In College: 1.94 ABPP, 1.9 PPG, and 843 OPS. In Majors: 2.54 ABPP, .59 PPG, and 643 OPS
David Freese: In College: 1.71 ABPP, 2.4 PPG, and 1072 OPS. In Majors: 2.5 ABPP, 1.05 PPG, and 780 OPS.
Adam Lind: In College: 1.88 ABPP, 2.09 PPG, and 1039 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, 1.25 PPG, and 782 OPS
Steve Pearce: In College 1.82 ABPP, 2.29 PPG, and 1098 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .63 PPG, and 668 OPS
Landon Powell: In College: 1.9 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 956 OPS. In Majors: 2.95 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 612 OPS
Justin Smoak: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 2.35 PPG, and 1105 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, .94 PPG, and 701 OPS
Chris Carter: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 1.4 PPG, and 951 OPS. In Majors: 2.84 ABPP, .47 PPG, and 689 OPS
Jason Castro: In College: 2.13 ABPP, 1.5 PPG, and 857 OPS. In Majors: 3.05 ABPP, .54 PPG, 573 OPS.
Sam Fuld: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 874 OPS. In Majors: 2.45 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 685 OPS
Jed Lowrie: In College: 1.77 ABPP, 1.97 PPG, and 994 OPS. In Majors: 2.58 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 732 OPS
John Mayberry: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 1.84 PPG, and 908 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .92 PPG, and 846 OPS
Carlos Quentin: In College: 1.95 ABPP, 2.08 PPG, and 1004 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, 1.37 PPG, and 836 OPS
Chris Johnson: In College: 1.88 ABPP, 2 PPG, and 1030 OPS. In Majors: 2.91 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 725 OPS.
J.P. Arencibia: In College: 2.02 ABPP, 1.98 PPG, and 965 OPS. In Majors: 2.9 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 706 OPS.
Chase Headley: In College: 1.61 ABPP, 1.7 PPG, and 1024 OPS. In Majors: 2.42 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 735 OPS.
 Omar Quintanilla: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 915 OPS. In Majors: 3.39 ABPP, .45 PPG, and 552 OPS.
Drew Stubbs: In College: 1.76 ABPP, 2.2 PPG, and 923 OPS. In Majors: 2.3 ABPP, 1.35 PPG, and 731 OPS.
Cliff Pennington: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 1.87 PPG, and 899 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .92 PPG, and 695 OPS.
Justin Ruggiano: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.71 PPG, and 897 OPS. In Majors: 3.2 ABPP, .55 PPG, and 621 OPS.
Mitch Maier: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.54 PPG, and 1118 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, .68 PPG, and 678 OPS.
Casper Wells: In College: 1.86 ABPP, 2.1 PPG, and 1106 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .81 PPG, and 801 OPS.
Brian Bogusevic: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.72 PPG, and 896 OPS. In Majors:2.53 ABPP, .51 PPG, and 767 OPS.
Daniel Delscalso: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.63 PPG, and 932 OPS. In Majors: 2.73 ABPP, .48 PPG, and 683 OPS
Skip Schumaker: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 1.61 PPG, and 914 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .75 PPG, 724 OPS.
Ryan Spilborghs: In College: 1.78 ABPP, 2.02 PPG, and 960 OPS. In Majors: 2.4 ABPP, .83 PPG, and 768 OPS
Drew Butera: In College: 2.21 ABPP, 1.39 PPG, and 800 OPS. In Majors: 4.37 ABPP, .5 PPG, and 481 OPS
Brandon Crawford: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 1.84 PPG, and 891 OPS. In Majors: 3.06 ABPP, .71 PPG, and 584 OPS
Ben Francisco: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 903 OPS. In Majors: 2.51 ABPP, .93 PPG, and 762 OPS.
Chase Utley: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 2.62 PPG, and 1039 OPS. In Majors: 2.12 ABPP, 1.55 PPG, and 882 OPS.
Lucus Duda: In College: 2.23 ABPP, 1.18 PPG, and 784 OPS. In Majors: 2.42 ABPP, .98 PPG, and 815 OPS.
Hunter Pence: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.93 PPG, and 1006 OPS. In Majors: 2.39 ABPP, 1.33 PPG, and 828 OPS
Ryan Roberts: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.41 PPG, and 1182 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 748 OPS
Scott Sizemore:  In College: 1.86 ABPP, 2.04 PPG, and 948 OPS. In Majors: 2.48 ABPP, 1 PPG, and 711 OPS.
Mark Reynolds: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 2.07 PPG, and 900 OPS. In Majors: 2.25 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 815 OPS.
Ryan Zimmerman: In College: 2.1 ABPP, 1.76 PPG, and 942 OPS. In Majors: 2.31 ABPP, 1.35 PPG, and 834 OPS.
Brent Lillibridge: In College: 1.72 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 1028 OPS. In Majors: 2.78 ABPP, .72 PPG, and 671 OPS.
Adam Rosales: In College: 1.89 ABPP, 1.75 PPG, and 875 OPS. In Majors: 2.98 ABPP, .65 PPG, and 630 OPS.
Andy Dirks: In College: 1.67 ABPP, 2.22 PPG, and 970 OPS. In Majors: 2.88 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 703 OPS.
The 117 players averaged a 1.87 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 982 OPS in College. In the Majors: 2.59 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 732 OPS. On average, players add .72 to their ABPP and lose -1.06 PPG and .250 from their OPS from Division 1 to the Majors. I will use this metric to grade current college players.