Is Robinson Cano worth 14 million dollars?

The Yankees announced that they are picking up the 14 million dollar option on Robinson Cano's contract. Cano had a 4.6 WAR in 2011, worth 13.8 million. His 2010 season was worth 18.9 million with his 6.3 WAR. However, Cano has career OBP of .347, .349 in 2011, career high .381 in 2010. For a player that is heralded as one of the tops in the league, these numbers are pretty low. His Career OPS is .843, and he has walked just 5.1% in his career, far below league average (career best in 2010 at 8.2%, still slightly below league average of 8.5%. He has a Secondary Average of just .243 in his career (was slightly above .300 in both 2010 and 2011). His career BABIP is extremely high at .321 (had a .326 BABIP in 2010). He seems to have improved as a overall hitter in the past two seasons, but he seems to be profoundly overrated. I have heard comparisons to Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and dozens of other great hitters. He simply does not have those numbers. Those comparisons are completely unfounded. He is an above average power hitter, homering over 4% of the time in the last 4 years, with an ISO of .231 in 2011 (.188 in his career). He has a career number of 5.8 runs created per game, and a .579 Offensive winning percentage. These numbers are good for sure, but maybe not as good as Cano is hyped to be. His PPS is absolutely pathetic at 80.98 for his career. An offensive of too many Cano type hitters would be an offensive a pitcher could face all day. The lack of patience and walks truly is concerning, and one wonders if his BABIP will come back to earth. It may never, because he certainly hits the ball hard, but if it does, Cano is in serious trouble. I want to repeat that obviously Cano is a good player, but he is obviously overrated, and may soon be overpaid.

Pitches Against Starter Metric

It is common baseball wisdom that the earlier you get a starter out of the game, the better chance you have to win. So here I will try to establish a metric that shows how good a team or player is at accomplishing this feat. A team needs to get at least 6.67 pitches per out to get the bullpen after 6 innings (assuming the starter goes 120 pitches). So of course we have to factor pitches per plate appearance, but we also have to factor OBP. Usually the relief pitchers are not as good as the starters, except the set up man and closers for most good teams. So the goal would be to not let the starter go more than 6 innings. You can use this metric to grade players by seeing how many pitches it takes them to get out 18 times. For example, for Robinson Cano, you take his .349 OBP and multiply it by 18. This gives you 6.282, meaning in 18 plate appearances, he will reach 6.282 times. So you add that to 18 to get 24.282. Then multiply it by his pitches per plate appearance (3.34 for Cano). This is only 81.1, meaning it would only take a starting pitcher 81 pitches to get through 6 innings of a Cano only lineup (and the pitcher would clearly still be in the game). Matt Kemp would cause a pitcher to be at 99 pitches through 6 innings. This is also a way to judge the quality of lineups. For example, the Brewers lineup in game 4 of the ALCS Morgan (.357 OBP, 3.69 Pit/PA), Kotsay (.329 OBP, 3.58 Pit/PA), Braun (.397 OBP, 3.93 Pit/PA), Fielder (.415, 3.79), Weeks (.350, 3.84), Hairston (.348, 3.86), Betancourt (.271, 3.16), Kottaras (.311, 3.81), and Wolf (.177, 3.56). This gives you a 2.955 OBP and 33.22 pitches. Because it is 18 outs, multiply both numbers to get 66.44 pitches and 5.91 OBP. Because the OBP is 5.91 you multiply that by the average Pit/PA for the 9 batters (3.69) to get about 21.81. Add that number to the 66.44 pitches to get 88.25 pitches as the final number through 6 innings. So the Brewers lineup is better that Robinson Cano but not as good as Matt Kemp, according to this metric. This pitches against starter metric I really like and will keep using.

Playoff Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees

This is the final series of the first round to be previewed. Before looking at the statistics, I had the Tigers winning the series because I felt they had better starting pitching depth and the lineups are similar.

It appears that the Yankees will go with just 3 starters, using Sabathia (.203 WAR per Start, -1.98 PE), Nova (2.24 PE, .129 WAR per start), and Garcia (.13 WAR a start, 1.7 PE). Their bullpen will probably include: Rivera, Robertson, Ayala, Colon, Laffey, Valdes, Soriano, and Logan. Their stats add up to a -8.37 PE and a 9.8 WAR. Their lineup will probably include (in no particular order) Granderson, Swisher, Martin, Texiera, Cano, Jeter, Rodriquez, and Chavez. Their stats add up to a .173 WAR per game, 13.344 PPG, 23.608 PAPP. The Tigers, will use 4 starters it looks like: Verlander (-3.73 PE, .253 WAR a start), Fister (.16 PE, .26 WAR a start), Scherzer (.44 PE, .073 WAR per start), and Penny (9.87 PE, negative WAR). Detroit's lineup will probably look like this (in no order): Jackson, Young, Raburn, Cabrera, Martinez, Aviles, Ordonez, Peralta, and Inge. This adds up to a .127 WAR a game, 10.06 PPG, 25.864 PAPP. Their bullpen will include: Valverde, Coke Benoit, Porcello, Perry, Alburquerque. Schlereth, and Pauley. Their stats add up to -9.7 PE, and a 10.8 WAR.

So while the Tigers have a better bullpen, the Yankees have a better lineup and better starting pitching. That is not good news for the Tigers and so I pick the Yankees after statistics.