Friday, October 14, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Jorge Posada

Jorge Posada had a terrible 2011 at a -1 WAR. This is after averaging a 3.06 WAR in his previous 15 seasons. This means he deserved about 9.18 million in his average year. He will clearly not see that kind of money in free agency, nor should he. About $900,000 is all a -1 WAR would deserve. Posada could retire, and if that is all the money he was offered, he would probably just hang it up. This doesn't even mention that 2011 Posada hurts your team. Why would you want a guy who makes your team worse. So had Posada lost it, or can he still be productive? Despite having a great OBP of .374 for his career, he had just a .315 in 2011. His OPS was also below average at .714. His PPG was very pedestrian at .8 (career 1.24 PPG) and his PAPP wasn't great at 2.93 (career 2.49 PAPP). So why did this happen? Well, he saw less pitches in 2011 (3.77 Pit/PA to a career 3.91), at a 89.2 pitches per starter ratio (compared to a career 96.7). According to that metric though, he is still a serviceable player in the lineup (but still not really good). He suffered a career low .262 BABIP, (2010 was his previous career low, so you should have been able to smell decline), and considering the other stats, probably isn't luck. It was also a career low in slugging and secondary average. When he created just a third of the runs he usually created a year, it is hard to have any optimism for 2012. He hit more groundballs than usual, and hit less line drives. Although he struck out a little less, he walked less. Expect that to continue (if his career indeed continues) as long as he keeps hitting more groundballs and less line drives. If he wants to play, I am not entirely sure anyone will want him, I certainly wouldn't at the money he would demand.

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