Why its time for the Rangers to trade Michael Young

Yes, you read that right, The Rangers should trade Michael Young. Despite making 16 million dollars (he will also make 16 million for 2012 and 2013) in 2011, he had a 2.4 WAR. This is a WASP of 6667, over twice as much as the Halladay Standard. This means, at least according to the Halladay Standard, his salary is over twice is much as his production is actually worth. In 2011, the Rangers had a payroll of about 92 million dollars. This means that, according to WAR calculations that I have used before on this blog, for every 1 Win above Replacement (assuming the Rangers want to make the playoffs by winning 95 games), they can pay 2.13 million dollars. This means that Young's 2.4 WAR is worth 5.11 million dollars, about a third as much as Young makes. According to his WAR average of the past 3 years, he is worth slightly more to the Rangers at 5.68 million. These simple calculations show that Young is hurting the Rangers with his gigantic salary and low production, and that it is quite obvious that the Rangers need to trade him. However, let's look at other numbers to see if they tell the same story. In 2011, some of his basic metrics looked pretty good, as he had a .380 OBP, 124 OPS +, and 1.994 O4S. He had an Offensive Winning Percentage of .666 and 6.7 Runs Created per a game. These are very good numbers, but there are a couple of concerning ones that I think shouldn't be ignored, such as Secondary Average (just .217), ISO (.136), walk percentage (6.8%), HR percentage (1.6%), and pitches per plate appearance (3.61, with a PPS of just 89.67). So many essential metrics suggest that Young was not all that great offensively. He was also 5th in the league in BABIP with a .367. This most likely means that his positive 2011 season statistics were probably very fluky. He actually has an above average BABIP at .338 for his career, but it is still a .029 difference. If that BABIP was adjusted to his career average, his OBP would have been .350, less impressive, but also exactly his career OBP. Along with that career OBP, he has a 106 OPS +, 1.851 O4S (about .100 above average), .554 Offensive Winning Percentage, 5.6 Runs Created Per Game, and .229 Secondary Average. Again, most of these are pretty good numbers. His PPS is 91.15, and this is a microcosm of Young, just above average offensively. On defense, there is a different story. In his 12 year career, he has a -7.9 D-WAR. Much is made about his ability to play several different positions, but it appears he plays none of them very well. In 2011, he had a -.9 D-WAR, despite playing 69 games at DH. At first base (a position he hadn't played before), he was very poor, with a Range Factor of 7.78 (league average is 9.24), and fielding percentage of .989 (league average is .993). He also had below average range factor at every position he played in 2011. "Runs Saved" metrics also showed that he was a well below average defender. To give you another idea of just how poor of a defender Young is, when at third, 85% of balls hit to him turned into outs (89% is league average), and at first 86% of balls hit to him were turned into outs (94% is league average for first basemen). Much is written about Young's leadership skills and team attitude (and in following the Rangers for almost all of Young's career, I can say that a lot of this is true. However, Young ran to the press to blast Ranger's management after both his move to 3rd base and 1st base/DH, and even demanded to be traded. His team attitude is probably overrated, he is, after all, making 16 million dollars), but these immeasurables are just that, immeasurable. In the face of numbers that clearly show that Young is not even close to worth his 16 million dollar salary, and the fact that he has no real position, it simply doesn't make any sense to say "he is a good leader, and therefore he is valuable". With the Rangers stupidly deciding to give a whole bunch of money to Joe Nathan, and players like Cruz, Hamilton, Feldman, and Uehara all making big money or due big money, it is obviously time for the Rangers to move on.

Is Josh Hamilton Overrated?

Over the past 3 years, including his MVP year, Josh Hamilton has a 4.03 WAR average, worth 12.1 million. He will make 13.75 million in 2012. Hamilton has a career .366 OBP. To give you an idea of how that fits in with the league, there were 29 players (that had the minimum amount of plate appearances) with equal or better than .366 OBP in 2011. This list includes the ones you might expect like Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, but also includes guys like Alberto Callaspo and Casey Kotchman. However, it is not as if Hamilton sucks at getting on base, as one assumes that each of the 30 teams have 13 hitters, Hamilton would still be in the top 8%. Hamilton was also the OPS leader in 2010, and has a career OPS of .909, which would have been 16th in the Majors in 2011. His PAPP is very solid at 2.4, and his PPG is really nice at 1.61. Known for exciting defense of plays and disregard for his own safety, he has an under average fielding percentage and slightly above average range factor. In 2011, he cost the Rangers at least 3 runs with his fielding overall, and in his career is actually worth -1 run defensively, meaning he slightly hurts his team in the field. His 2010 MVP season should have alarmed some people, as he had an absolutely unrealistic .390 BABIP. It should have been pretty obvious that he could not repeat that season in 2011. His Secondary Average and ISO are both pretty good at .336 and .234 (these two were both about the same in 2010 and 2011, perhaps showing that these statistics are more reliable and less fluky). His career Runs Created per game is impressive at 7.5, giving him an Offensive Winning Percentage of .688. Certainly everyone would like to have him in their offense. There are certainly flaws in Hamilton's offense game though, as he walks slightly less than league average and sees less pitches per plate appearance than average. This is concerning because not only do you think a dangerous power hitter should be able to walk and make a pitcher work more than normal, but it also means inconsistency. Players that are able to walk and see more pitches are almost always more consistent hitters, and for Hamilton consistency seems to be somewhat a problem. One year he is one of the leagues best, the next, he is just above average. So to answer the question, yes Josh Hamilton is a bit overrated. There is no question he is an exciting player, and that he is an above average player, but he simply does not belong in the class of Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols, and the leagues best players.

World Series Preview: Rangers and Cardinals

So its time for the World Series. Here is the statistical preview:

The Rangers are going to look like this in the starting rotation: Wilson (.148 WAR per start, -1.87 PE), Lewis (.061 WAR per start, .51 PE), Harrison (.13 WAR per Start, 1.17 PE), Holland (.55 PE, .081 WAR per Start),  as starting pitchers. Their  bullpen looks like this Ogando (3.4 WAR, .3 PE), Feliz (-1.8 PE, .8 WAR), Gonzalez (-.55 PE, .2 WAR) , Adams (-5.24 PE, 1.7 WAR), Uejara (1.2 WAR, -7.09 PE), Oliver (-2.01 PE, 1.2 WAR), Lowe (.3 WAR and -.56 PE) and Feldman (.98 PE, .2 WAR). Their lineup will probably look like (in no particular order): Hamilton (.03 WAR per game, 1.723 PPG, 2.42 PAPP), Cruz (.011 WAR per Game, 1.52 PPG, 2.74 PAPP), Murphy (2.74 PAPP, .966 PPG, Negative WAR), Napoli (2.13 PAPP, .045 WAR per game, 1.504 PPG), Kinsler (2.39 PAPP, 1.67 PPG, .035 WAR per Game), Andrus (.024 WAR per game, 1.32 PPG, 2.68 PAPP) Beltre (1.76 PPG, .043 WAR per game, 2.63 PAPP), Young (.015 WAR per game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.33 PPG), and with the DH Torreabla (.006 WAR per game, .75 PPG, 3.14 PAPP).

 For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Jackson (1.38 PE, .067 WAR).  Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), , Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game), and when DH Craig (2.33 PAPP, 1.19 PPG, and .039 WAR per game).

As far as starting pitching goes, The Rangers have advantage in game 1 (and in turn, gave 5), and in games 2 and 6 it is a split as Lewis has a better PE, while Lohse has a better WAR. Basically the same happens in game 3 and 7 between Harrison and Garcia. In game 4, Holland is better than Edwin Jackson, so the Rangers have the clear advantage in starting pitching. The Rangers bullpen has a much better WAR, and a much better than PE. It is not even close, the Rangers have the better bullpen. With or without the DH, the Cardinals have the better lineup according to WAR, but the Rangers have the better Production Per Game (with or without the DH). The Cardinals also have the higher Plate Appearances per Positive Play, which is bad, you want the lower number. Something similar happened in the Tampa Bay and Ranger series, as the Rangers were better at PPG and PAPP but worse at WAR. This is most likely because of defense. So the Rangers have the better offense and pitching. The Cardinals are only better at defense. So the statistics show a clear advantage for the Rangers in this series.

Looking back at the Josh Hamilton-Edinson Volquez Trade

Its always fun to look back at old trades and see which team "won" the trade. Just on the surface of it, it appears that the Rangers won this trade with the Reds. After the 07 season, the Rangers sent Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera to the Reds for Josh Hamilton. Herrera (currently a member of the Mets, after beginning the season with the Brewers) spent 3 years with Cincinnati and recorded an even 0 WAR (Wins above Replacement), meaning he was no more than a replacement player or an average backup player. He made about $1,212,500 in salary in his time as a Red, making his WASP (War and Salary Per) 2,425. Volquez (still a member of the Reds, but has been up and down between AAA and the Majors this year, after being the Game 1 starter in the ALDS last year) has posted a 4.3 WAR in his 4 seasons as a Red (for comparison, Cliff Lee has a 6.1 just this year, and Verlander has a 7.7 this year, and WAR is not an average, it can and should be added up). In that time, he has made $2,897,500 in salary. This gives him a WASP (WASP works like an average, unlike WAR) of about 673 overall, which is actually very nice (his WASP for this year is 5346 though). Since Josh Hamilton has been a Ranger, he has made $11,451,830, much more than Volquez and Herrera combined. However, he has compiled a 16.8 WAR (along with an AL MVP and MVP of the ALCS), giving him a WASP of 681 overall (almost the exact same as Volquez). So it appears with both WAR and WASP (mainly because of Herrera's failure) the Rangers won this trade.