The Howie Kendrick extension

Howie Kendrick has signed a 4 year 33.5 million dollar extension with the Angels. Over the past 4 years, Kendrick has posted a 10.9 WAR, or 2.7 WAR per season. If Kendrick performs at the same level for the next 4 years, he will has a WASP of 3073, right around the Halladay Standard. However, in the last year of the deal, he will be 31, which is usually past the prime for a baseball player. It is not that Kendrick can't perform at a high level, or even the level he has been performing at, it is just unlikely he will be as good at age 31 as he is at 27. This makes a contract that is seemingly border-line like this one, much less attractive. Defense usually regresses quicker than offense, and Kendrick relies much more on offense than defense (just 1.7 D-WAR in his career). He is a solid defender, with a positive D-WAR every year in his career except 1. Offensively, he has a career .329 OBP and 105 OPS +. His offensive winning percentage is .495, with 4.8 Runs created per game. As those statistics point to an average offensive player, his secondary average and ISO point to something a little worse than average. He is an under average home run hitter, well below average walker, and slightly above average extra base hitter. He is an extreme groundball hitter, and sees just 3.63 Pit/PA. To me, it appears that Kendrick is really just a slightly above average player with a lot of flaws. I think the Angels overpaid a bit for him, but it is a good long term deal for Kendrick himself. If I was an Angel fan, I would really start worrying about how my team is overpaying a bunch of guys, and wonder how they are going to manage salary in a couple of years.

The Dodgers versus the Angels

The Dodgers announced that they were giving Tony Gwynn (Jr!!!) a 2 year 2 million dollar deal. He had a 1.1 WAR in 2011, and a .9 WAR average over the past 3 years. This is worth 2.7 million a year according to the Halladay Standard, so this is actually a good deal for the Dodgers. However, there was something that caught my eye:

Jim Bowden of ESPN tweeted
Dodgers will pay Harang,Capuano,Ellis, Hairston,Gwynn,Treanor,Kennedy,Rivera,Uribe more than Angels pay Pujols this year
So here are their 2011 WARs:

Harang 1.9
Capuano 1.7
Treanor -.2
Kennedy .4
Rivera -.5
Uribe -.1
Ellis .9
Hairston 1.6
Overall: 7.6 WAR (including Gwynn above)

Pujols 7.1 WAR average over the past 3 years

I wrote a few months back that Pujols was worth about 23 million dollars, and that it doesn't even make sense to invest that much money in one player. So obviously the Angels paid too much money, and giving a player 10 years is ridiculous. However, it just shows the two totally different directions the two LA teams are going.

Free Agent Watch: Russell Branyan

In 2011, Branyan played in just 68 games for the Diamondbacks and Angels and registered a -.2 WAR while making 1 million dollars. His OBP was just .295 and his OPS was just .665. While his PAPP was 2.92, his PPG was just .47. However, he walked 12.32 percent of the time, well above league average, and he homered 3.4% of his plate appearances, again well above league average. Even with his awful OBP, he still had a PPS of 95.1. After having a 1.8 WAR in 09, and a 2.4 WAR in 2010, one quickly scrambles to figure out what happened. It seems to be the usual suspect, BABIP. His BABIP was just .244 in 2011, which is mindblowingly low. His career BABIP is .296. With his career BABIP replacing the his 2011 BABIP, he would have had a .359 OBP, and even if his Slugging somehow didn't change, he would have a more acceptable .729 OPS. This makes us want to look at his career numbers. He trots this line out: .329 OBP, .814 OPS, 2.63 PAPP, and 1.03 PPG. Excluding the average OBP, these are pretty good numbers. The deeper you go, the better they get, with a 5.7 Runs Created per Game, and a .565 offensive winning percentage. Even better is his Secondary Average (.394), and Isolated Slugging (.254). He walks 11.86 percent of the time and homers 5.7% of the time. Add this to a 97.36 and you have a very good offensive player. Defensively, he isn't very good at a -.7 career D-WAR. Because of his pretty bad 2011 season, Russell Branyan will be significantly undervalued. However, it seems his 2011 season was due to his lack of Plate Appearances (just 146), and his terrible BABIP luck. He doesn't have a great OBP, but he walks like crazy and is a big time home run hitter. He is a ball crusher, who is also a pretty efficient hitter as PAPP shows. It would be absolute insanity for a team to sign Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols when there are solid 1^st Baseman like Branyan and Overbay laying around basically to be underpaid. Using Simple WAR and our adjusted OBP and OPS (but basically unrealistically not changing PPG or PAPP, we can predict at 1.56 O-WAR for 2012 (if we replace the PPG and PAPP with his career numbers for those statistics we get a 2.24 O-WAR).

World Series Preview: Rangers and Cardinals

So its time for the World Series. Here is the statistical preview:

The Rangers are going to look like this in the starting rotation: Wilson (.148 WAR per start, -1.87 PE), Lewis (.061 WAR per start, .51 PE), Harrison (.13 WAR per Start, 1.17 PE), Holland (.55 PE, .081 WAR per Start),  as starting pitchers. Their  bullpen looks like this Ogando (3.4 WAR, .3 PE), Feliz (-1.8 PE, .8 WAR), Gonzalez (-.55 PE, .2 WAR) , Adams (-5.24 PE, 1.7 WAR), Uejara (1.2 WAR, -7.09 PE), Oliver (-2.01 PE, 1.2 WAR), Lowe (.3 WAR and -.56 PE) and Feldman (.98 PE, .2 WAR). Their lineup will probably look like (in no particular order): Hamilton (.03 WAR per game, 1.723 PPG, 2.42 PAPP), Cruz (.011 WAR per Game, 1.52 PPG, 2.74 PAPP), Murphy (2.74 PAPP, .966 PPG, Negative WAR), Napoli (2.13 PAPP, .045 WAR per game, 1.504 PPG), Kinsler (2.39 PAPP, 1.67 PPG, .035 WAR per Game), Andrus (.024 WAR per game, 1.32 PPG, 2.68 PAPP) Beltre (1.76 PPG, .043 WAR per game, 2.63 PAPP), Young (.015 WAR per game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.33 PPG), and with the DH Torreabla (.006 WAR per game, .75 PPG, 3.14 PAPP).

 For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Jackson (1.38 PE, .067 WAR).  Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), , Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game), and when DH Craig (2.33 PAPP, 1.19 PPG, and .039 WAR per game).

As far as starting pitching goes, The Rangers have advantage in game 1 (and in turn, gave 5), and in games 2 and 6 it is a split as Lewis has a better PE, while Lohse has a better WAR. Basically the same happens in game 3 and 7 between Harrison and Garcia. In game 4, Holland is better than Edwin Jackson, so the Rangers have the clear advantage in starting pitching. The Rangers bullpen has a much better WAR, and a much better than PE. It is not even close, the Rangers have the better bullpen. With or without the DH, the Cardinals have the better lineup according to WAR, but the Rangers have the better Production Per Game (with or without the DH). The Cardinals also have the higher Plate Appearances per Positive Play, which is bad, you want the lower number. Something similar happened in the Tampa Bay and Ranger series, as the Rangers were better at PPG and PAPP but worse at WAR. This is most likely because of defense. So the Rangers have the better offense and pitching. The Cardinals are only better at defense. So the statistics show a clear advantage for the Rangers in this series.

Playoff Preview: Brewers and Cardinals

I really have thought that the Brewers were the best team in the National League outside of the newly eliminated Phillies, and they have a complete team (outside of holes in their fielding), so I will go with them before statistics.

For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR).  Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), Jackson (1.38 PE, 3.8 WAR), Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), and Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game).

I expect the Brewers to use Gallardo (.08 WAR a start, -1.85 PE), Grienke (-3.21 PE, .056 WAR per start), Marcum (-.11 PE, .1 WAR a start), and Wolf (1.78 PE, .1 WAR a star) as the starting pitchers. Their bullpen will probably include Saito (.2 WAR, -2.23 PE), Rodriquez (-3.48 PE, 1.4 WAR), Axford (-5.22 PE, 1.8 WAR), Loe (-.62 PE, 1.2 WAR), Hawkins (1.17 PE, .7 WAR) De La Cruz (.1 WAR, -.23 PE), Narveson (1.5 WAR, 1.36 PE), and Dillard (-1.01 PE, .3 WAR). Their lineup will look something like this: (in no order) Morgan (.018 WAR per game, 2.9 PAPP, .97 PPG), Braun (2.07 PAPP, .05 WAR per game, 1.9 PPG), Hart (2.52 PAPP, .03 WAR per game, 1.33 PPG), Lucroy (.003 WAR per game, 3.066 PAPP, .84 PPG), Fielder (1.52 PPG, .03 WAR per game, 2.24 PAPP), Weeks (.025 War per game, 2.6 PAPP, 1.3 PPG), Betancourt (.007 WAR per game, .91 PPG, 3.43 PAPP), and Hairston (.6 PPG, 2.94 PAPP, and .024 WAR per game).


The statistics show that the Brewers have the much better starting pitching. The bullpen is split, with the Brewers being more efficient, but the Cardinals a better WAR. The lineups are very even, all the statistics are close, the PAPP and WAR going to the Cardinals, while PPG going to the Brewers (but all by very small margins). So it is easy to call the lineups and bullpens a draw, and focus on the difference in starting pitching that favors the Brewers. So both the statistics pick and my pre-pick is the Brewers.

The new Berkman contract

The Cardinals have announced that they are giving Lance Berkman a contract for next year worth 12 million dollars. At a 8 million dollar salary this season, Berkman has a 1633 WASP. If he can put together another 4.9 WAR season next year, he will still be a 2449 WASP, still a very solid number. However, in 2010, when he battled injuries, with both the Yankees and Astros put up only a 1.2 WAR. The big question is whether last year was the outlier or this year is the outlier. Or, are they both outliers and the real result is somewhere in the middle? For his career, this year is actually pretty normal, and maybe a little under average. He has had 4 seasons of above 6 WAR, in 2008 he had a OOP of 663 and a PPG of 1.68 (compared to an OOP of 565 and a PPG 1.51 this year). He is walking at the same ratio he did last year (at about 16%), and striking out at a slightly smaller ratio. He clearly wasn't as strong last year as he is this year (he had a .166 Isolated Slugging last year, and a .255 ISOS this year).  The main issue seems to be health, and thats nearly impossible to predict injuries other than looking at the track record. Other than last year, he has been pretty healthy throughout his career. Astros' TV color guy Jim Deshaies said something I hadn't thought of, this is their insurance policy at first base in case they don't resign Albert Pujols (which I have argued the Cardinals should not resign). This deal makes sense for where the Cardinals are at right now, but it could really blow up in their face.

The obligatory Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder article

Everyone who follows baseball knows, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder will be free agents at the end of the season. In the past 4 years, Pujols has registered a 31.8 WAR, a 27.4 offensive WAR and a 3.8 defensive WAR. That means his average year (in the past 4 years) is 7.95 WAR, 6.85 O-WAR, .95 D-WAR. He is making 16 million dollars this year (with a 5.3 WAR) and has a WASP around the Halladay Standard at 3018. However, if he made 16 million in his average year, his WASP would be a solid 2013. His average year merits a 23.8 million dollar a year contract according to the Halladay Standard. Prince Fielder is a slightly different story. His WAR in the past 4 years is 15.9, 17.9 O-WAR, -2 D-WAR. He is making 15.5 million this year, (and with a WAR of 4.7) making his WASP pretty bad, at 5741 (Carlos Pena of the rival Cubs is slightly more efficient). His average WAR is 3.975, 4.475 O-WAR, -.5 D-WAR. According the Halladay Standard, his average season deserves 11.925 million dollars. Back to Pujols, since the minimum wage for Major League players is at $400,000, if he ends up making 23.850 million dollars, that would be equal to 60 minimum wage players. It would be nearly impossible to argue that Albert Pujols is worth 60 players, even minimum wage bubble players. Think about it, would you rather bring Albert Pujols to spring training, or 60 pre-arbitration major and minor league players?  The 60 players would only have to equal a .1325 WAR a piece to equal Pujol's production. Unless your a big money team with no worries about money or efficiency (especially because of injuries, can you imagine paying Pujols 23 million to sit on the DL because he tore up his knee in spring training?), it would be just goofy to sign Pujols to what he is worth.

Jason Giambi, and the big veteran pitch hitter.

Every National League team needs (and every American League team could use) someone like Jason Giambi. Giambi, 40 years old, once the top slugger in baseball (and an admitted steroid user), is no longer a player that can play 150 games a year, or hit 50 homers and drive in 100. However, he isn't making 20 million dollars a year anymore. He can still hit too, and hit it hard. In 123 At-Bats, he has 13 homers, meaning he homers every 9.5 At-Bats. Albert Pujols homers once in about every 15 At-Bats (this season). His OBP is a very respectable .368, an OPS at 1.022 (!), and he has driven in 32. This is a guy that the Rockies can bring off the bench to hit for the pitcher (or in a key situation) and expect real results. Not to mention that he gives the Rockies a formidable DH in interleague play, something many NL teams simply do not have. He has a WAR (wins above replacement player) of 1.2 and an 13 RAR (runs above replacement player). Making a million dollars, his WASP (Wins above Replacement player and Salary Per) a very nice 833. He has also shown that he can play the occasional first base, as he did last night, with a .1 WAR on defense.