Scouting Reports on Adam Choplick and Mikey Ramirez

It is that time of the year, as baseball is now on television. The inaugural college baseball game on TV for my plan was Oklahoma and Arkansas Pine Bluff. I will (at least I should) see Oklahoma in person late in the season, but here are scouting reports on the two starters:

Adam Choplick is a gigantic freshman lefty that stands at 6 feet 8 inches. His fastball was at 89-92 MPH with a change at 77-80 MPH. He gets, a lot of glove side tail with a heavy usage of the change against right-handed batters. The break and command of it was inconsistent, but he threw some really impressive ones and they drop and tilt downward very well. When he missed, he usually missed arm side, which usually means he wasn't "finishing his delivery", which is especially for a problem for young and very tall pitchers. Overall, I thought his command was pretty good for his age and size. He has a solid to average fastball now from the left-side, with the potential to add even more velocity along with a changeup that should add a little velocity and has good movement. I liked how he was able to use an off-speed pitch, especially since it was the changeup, so often, and at the same time, have a legit fastball. Many times it seems that young pitchers either use almost all fastballs, or are very off-speed heavy because he doesn't have a good fastball (a good example of that is below). Choplick is not either of these.

Obviously he is far away from even being drafted (he was redshirted, so he should be eligible in 2014), but I like Choplick.The one thing you can complain about is a lack of a third pitch, as he didn't really show one in the game. He also is coming off what I understand was his 2nd Tommy John surgery. This is obviously concerning at such a young age. With that said, he showed decent control for his age, especially for his first start as a college pitcher, and had a good outing, albeit against inferior competition (the team is in a smaller conference and went 8-31 in 2012). To me, he is an interesting name to follow, as we will want to see if he can stay healthy, and also gain a 3rd pitch and add some velocity.

Mikey Ramirez is a 5-10 junior right-handed pitcher for Arkansas Pine-Bluff. He throws 84-86 MPH with some arm side tail along with a 73-77 MPH change that floats armside and also can get some impressive downward tilt. However, he seemed to have no idea where the pitch was going. It also was so slow at times that even when it was out of the strike zone and low it was still occasionally hit hard. Ramirez also has a curve that looks 12-6 in break that he can bury low, but it was not a frequent pitch.

His delivery with runners on base reminds me of Edgar Gonzalez for some reason. He sort of rocks, and has a lot of body movement and somewhat inconsistent landing point. Obviously, his command reflected this, and he was all over the place at times.

The lack of fastball along with the lack of height and projection basically makes him a non prospect when it comes to the draft and the Majors.

Javier Herrera Signs with the Giants: Scouting Report

The San Francisco Giants signed Javier Herrera from the Frontier League to a minor league contract. Herrera spent the year between two teams in the league and played mainly right field. Herrera is a 27 year old right-handed hitter that was originally signed out of Venezuela by the Oakland A's. He developed into a top prospect, rated as the 68th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America in 2005, and as the 74th best in 2006 and was seen as an extremely high ceiling player. However, he didn't play at all in 2006 (Tommy John Surgery) and played in just 1 game in 2009. He played just 14 games in 2010, and it was in independent ball (despite signing with the Yankees on a minor league deal). He then didn't play at all again in 2011, before getting back into independent ball in 2012 (playing in 93 games, his most since 2005). When he went on the DL with a hamstring injury in 2008, it was his 4th straight year that he went on the DL. In 2003, he was airlifted from a game after crashing into a wall. He was clearly a guy who had all the tools, but the solid numbers didn't translate from the lower levels to the upper levels and he had his career ruined by injuries.

Herrera had a .920 OPS in the Frontier League in 2012. League average is .716, as the league has a slugging percentage of just .379, while the batting average is similar to MLB averages and the OBP is higher. Of course, finding the context for these statistics from Herrera will be difficult, if not impossible. Park Factors, as far as I can see, are impossible to find, platoon/ballpark splits are unavailable (not to mention he played for two different teams), and we (or I don't) simply don't know how independent league statistics translate to the minors or big leagues. There does seem to be quite a deviation though, as either there is a great competition gulf between teams or some pretty extreme park factors. In the Majors in 2012, the worst offensive team was the Astros who scored 3.60 runs per game. The Rangers were the best team, and they scored 4.99 runs per game (Colorado gave up 5.49 runs per game, while Tampa Bay gave up 3.56 runs per game). In the Frontier League, the best offensive team scored 5.95 runs per game, while the worst offensive team scored 3.40 runs per game, a bigger difference obviously. It may be safe to say that the Rockford RiverHawks (Herrera played for the Southern Illinois Miners and RiverHawks) played in an offensive friendly environment, as they scored 5.01 runs per game and gave up 6.19 runs per game. Of course, the alternative explanation would be that their pitching was horrible but they had good hitters. The pitcher that lead the team in starts (Cody Hallahan) was 24 years old and has no stats in either college (at least not a Major college that would show up on Baseball Cube) or the minors (or even any independent league stats before 2012). They simply may have just had bad pitchers (they also had Jimmy Parque on offense, who has been signed by the Cardinals I believe) or even a bad defense.

To be fair, the Frontier League website does have some advanced statistics available, and Herrera was 4th in the league in runs created, the best out of outfielders. His K/BB was unimpressive, but this was this the case in the minors as well. His ISO of .204 wasn't overly impressive either, ranked 22nd from my count. His 93 games don't sound like a lot, but teams only play 96 games a year in the Frontier League, showing that he was finally able to stay healthy. That number is more meaningful to me than any of his actual statistics in 2012.

I wanted to see if there was any change in Herrera at the plate, and videos of him in both the minors and in the Frontier League were easy to find, so I shared them below:

Swing from '07:

Swing from 2012:

The two swings seem basically the same to me, he keeps his hands up high and then dips his shoulder before driving the ball with an uppercut swing. While he shows good control with the bat, the overall mechanics are not exactly pretty.

Defensively, ROTZ data liked him in the outfield when he was in the minors, playing mostly centerfield, though FRAA wasn't much of a fan. I wouldn't trust range factor data from the independent leagues (though perhaps minor league data probably isn't much better). However, it is extremely likely that the injuries have sapped Herrera's speed and defensive skills at least somewhat. In 2008 (in AA Midland), he had a 6.2 speed score, and according to the crude speed score metric I used in the KBO WAR, he had a 5.33 speed score in 2012, not running a lot, but not getting caught a lot. This would suggest a regression, but only a slight one and he would still be an above average baserunner.

Already 27, with 5 career games in AAA (back in '05!), the corner outfielder's likelihood of impact is obviously small to non-existent just based on odds. He has never had a season of more than 14 homers at any level, which is not something you want to say for a corner outfielder, even a good defensive one. There should be place for him in AAA, but whether he provides any kind of value depends on how much his defensive/baserunning skill set has eroded.

Bobby Bramhall Signs With Nationals (Scouting Report)

The Nationals have signed Bobby Bramhall to a minor league contract. Bramhall was an 18th round pick by the Brewers in 2007 out of Rice.

A short lefty (5-11), Bramhall has gotten some starts in the minors (including 16 games in AA), but has mainly been a reliever. After a solid 2008 in Advanced A, Bramhall threw 97 innings in AA in 2009 and wasn't bad, with a 3.91 FIP (as a pitcher that was a year younger than the league. The league average ERA was 3.84 that year. Huntsville's park has been hitter friendly over the last couple of years at least). He had a decent strikeout rate, high walk rate, and a decent home run rate. However, in 2010, he threw in just 3 games (all in the Arizona Rookie League) and didn't pitch at all in 2011 after having Tommy John Surgery. In 2012, he hooked up with the Marlins organization and spent most of the league in AA (making one start). At age 27, he was obviously old for the league, but had a solid year with a good strikeout rate (and low walk rate). He didn't get many ground-balls, but didn't struggle with line drives or homers.

He also threw a game in A + and in AAA (which I watched). Since I couldn't find any videos of him on YouTube, I made one:

When I saw him, he was mainly keeping the ball away with most of his pitches and showed off a good breaking ball. His delivery seems pretty standard, mainly tying to take advantage of his height, but he does pause a bit to start his delivery. His fastball was just around 86 MPH, so he is clearly going to have to pitch off his breaking ball. Bramhall's command was pretty spotty when I saw him, something you don't want to see from an older/below average stuff pitcher. He is mainly going to have to rely on his breaking ball and should mainly face lefties, both because of his stuff and his numbers (26.8 K%, 4.1 BB %, .37 HR/9IP in 2012 against lefties).

Bramhall went on the DL with a back strain in August of 2012, and injuries seem like they will be part of the package for Bramhall. This is a concern for pitchers who are somewhat small. This is why I don't get why he keeps starting games in the minors. The Nationals should keep him in the bullpen and see if he can succeed in AAA as a lefty specialist.

Scouting Reports on UT of Arlington and Stephen F. Austin

I went and saw Stephen F. Austin play at the University of Texas at Arlington on Sunday February 26th.

UTAs starter was Lance Day, who threw 86-88 MPH (I was sitting around a couple of scouts with radar guns). Day is a senior right hander who went to Midland Community College previously. As a Freshman, he had 11 bad innings, but recovered as a sophomore, and had struck out 6.54 batters per 9 innings in his two years there. His first year at UTA (2011), he had a 3.62 ERA, .279 BAA, and 5.94 K/9IP (with a 2.29 K/BB ratio). At just 6-1, you would like to see more size to generate better velocity. He gave up lots of fouls early, but he got 4 strikeouts (2 looking and 2 swinging). He could throw his breaking ball for strikes (and he loved his breaking ball), but it seemed like he liked the strike zone a little too much considering his stuff. He had lots of short at bats. He could get some swing and misses, and kept the ball away consistently. He had a great two batter sequence in the 4th against two righties by keeping the ball away. He lost control in the 8th, and even though he had decent control most of the game, but when he hung the breaking ball it would be crushed by power hitters. Defensively, he didn't have a great route to the ball but made a good throw, and covered first well. He really reaches back in his delivery, as you can see here:

While he was able to get some hitters to chase off the plate, his low strikeout total was pretty consistent with his career averages, and the ball was really being hit hard. He left a lot of runners on base, and threw a wild pitch with runners on. His fastball did get high, and with his velocity, it seems unlikely he can live up there.

Cameron Gann was the starter for Stephen F. Austin, and the small freshman was throwing 84-86 MPH. He didn't get any of the first 3 hitters to swing and miss, but hothing was hit hard either. His plan was to go low and away to lefties, but it didn't always work. Overall, he kept the ball pretty low, but had a ball crushed for a ground rule double (the hardest hit ball of the game). His wild breaking ball wasn't fooling a lot of people, and it couldn't throw it for strikes consistently. His fastball was high and mostly unimpressive (as the velocity shows, it didn't look like he was throwing hard either). One scout really liked his potential, but he had control problems through out. He wasn't helped by a little zone from the umpire for the most part, but he couldn't make the ball go where he wanted. He did have a good pickoff move, and fielded the ball back to him perfectly (even though it was soft off the bat). Like Day, he was clearly a contact pitcher, and he end up having a high LOB %. Here is some video of Gann:

It was a low scoring game, and as I wasn't really impressed with either starter, I wasn't impressed with the hitting either for the most part.
Preston Beck was one of the more impressive hitters, as the 6-2 190 RF had long at-bats that I really liked. The Junior had a really long at-bat before grounding out, a decent-length at-bat that lead to a fly-out, a walk, and another reasonable long at-bat that ended in an infield fly-ball. Beck had a team leading 31 walks in 2011, and lead the team in hits in 2010 as a freshman. He is a legitimate prospect with that bat of his, and you can watch him here:

Brent Bollinger was another guy I liked, as the junior 3rd baseman made 2 great plays at 3rd, one on a spike then a great throw. He was hitting the ball harder than anyone else, and smacked a ground rule double after one long at-bat. He had a good eye, and wasn't falling for the breaking ball. He did strikeout on a pretty nasty pitch, probably Gann's best pitch of the game, but he creamed another double as well. He also had decent speed, meaning he could do everything you can do on a baseball field pretty well. He originally went to Midland for Junior College, and amazingly had to walk on to UTA. Here is him batting:

Daniel Garcia played catcher for UTA, and he had a nice arm, and a walk and a 1 pitch ground-out before being pinch hit for. The red-shirt sophomore hit just .214 last season. Cody Dyvig was the pinch hitter, and he grounded out, seeing just 2 pitches. Dyvig was actually better in 2010 than 2011, hitting just .243 last year. Greg Mccail caught after the pinch hit, but didn't bat.
The 2nd base/shortstop combo for UTA was pretty weak defensively. Michael Guerra was the 2nd baseman. He starts open stanced but then closes it to normal as the ball approaches. He couldn't lay off the breaking pitch, and hit 3 ground-balls, 1 for a double play. Ryan Walker played short, and he had a bouncy stance at the plate, and could foul off pitches outside the zone. The sophomore is small at 6-0 155 with decent speed (he stole 11 bases in 2011). He was also tempted by the breaking ball, but had a long AB that turned into a grounder. He hit .322 as a freshman, with an OBP of .387 as a freshman. He may be a guy to watch out for next year. Jordan Vaughn played first base, and they had him trying to bunt, which probably tells you what you need to know about his bat. He did get a hit to the left side on a long at-bat for an infield single. He grounded out both to pitcher and catcher, as well as having an infield pop up.
Derek Miller usually plays in the middle infield, but played DH on the game I saw. He is listed at 6-1 175, but seemed small. He seemed to have a decent eye, but had a 1 pitch flyball out, and a pop foul out. They also had the freshman bunting. Phillip Incaviglia is the nephew of former Astro and Ranger Pete, and the senior had a fielders choice ground-ball, a ground-ball, and a nice lineout. He is a passive type hitter, and that cost him when he watched a hanging breaking ball he should have crushed. He is really small, at 5-10 170 (or so he is listed) and was picked off.
Brandon Lawrence played center field and is a little bigger at 6-0 185. He had a big arm and runs pretty well, but wasn't a very smart baserunner. He had a sac bunt, a walk, and a double:

At Blinn Junior College in 2011, Lawrence hit .444, giving you a lot of confidence in his bat to go along with his other tools.

Stephen F Austin's lineup:

Zach Benson was a junior that spent time at San Jacinto Junior College where he was pretty good as a freshman with a .373 batting average, but regressed to .287 as a sophomore (5 homers in those 2 years). He was a hacker falling for breaking balls, and had a short compact swing that robbed power but pulls the ball for medium strength liners. He got a weak grounder on a huge breaking ball, with a fly-ball out, and a ground-ball that snuck through. Hunter Dozier played shortstop, and reminded us of Hunter Pence with his build and look. He doesn't run well at all the scout near me complained, and he has a hole in his swing.

He struck out on a 5 pitch at-bat on a breaking ball, and had a 1 pitch ground-out
and flied out on a pitch down the middle. He did have a nice throwing arm, and the combo of him and the 2nd baseman turned a very good double play.

Fola Lajide is a junior outfielder who doesn't have great speed. I do wish he was bigger, but he hit the ball almost to the wall. He also struck out swing and had a hard ground-out. Max Lamantia played 1st, and it looked like he did a decent job getting to grounders. It did look like he had a hole in his swing, but struggled with breaking pitches. He struck out three times with a ground-ball. The DH Jordon Lenaburg could spoil pitches off well, and had a line drive out. He did whiff on a breaking ball, and had a good luck ground-ball. He was then pinch run for. The pinch runner was Corey Bartkowiak, a freshman outfielder. He is really small, at 5-6 150, and he walked in his at-bat. Bobby Loveless pinch hit, and was jammed and flied out to the infield.Adam Mann also pinch hit, and even though he is listed as a catcher, he played 1st base. He had an ugly check swing on a breaking ball, and the senior eventually had an ugly swinging strikeout. Rene Moreda, the 2nd baseman, had real nice speed, but is pretty small at 5-9 150. He had 2 long drive singles, and a ground-ball up the middle. Michael Ruiz was another small infielder, and was a small ball type play. He fouled off a bunt, but then finished off the sacrifice later in the at-bat. He grounded out on a hit and run, and had a shallow fly-ball out. Ricardo Sanchez is a 6 foot outfielder, at 185 pounds. He had a full count ground-ball, an unsuccessful sac bunt, a ground out back to pitcher, and a short swing line-out.

Jarid Scarafiotti was the most impressive Stephen F. Austin hitter:

He was stocky at 5-11 230 (and was probably bigger than that) and played catcher. He had a bad throw early on, but made a good one later in the game, and it appeared he had a pretty good arm. He blocked the plate well on a play at the plate, but he really wasn't able to move well enough to block pitches. In my opinion, while it would enhance his value greatly if he was, he isn't a real catcher. With the bat, he was fooled on his first pitch and had a ground out on his first at-bat. However, he pulled a single, and had a relatively deep fly-ball, and another 1 pitch fly-out. The Senior has struggled so far this year, but has hit at least .306 in the 3 previous years. He hasn't ever slugged .500, but has an OBP of around .400. He is going to have to either hit for more power, or improve his catching, but if he can do one of those things, he will be a nice prospect for the draft.

Now for the bullpen pitchers:

Cody Priest threw 87 MPHs out a sidearm. 3-5ths type of delivery (reminded me of the way Scott Feldman used to throw when he was a reliever):

It looked like he was trying to put the ball low, but it stayed pretty high. His breaking ball was for strikes, but high strikes. It seemed the ball went everywhere but low, as his major control problems led to 2 HBPs.

Alex Moshier was throwing 92 MPH, and keeps his hands high and hides the ball well:

His delivery has a slow start, as did his outing as Bollinger, the first hitter he faced, creamed the ball off of him on the first pitch. His second pitch was a nice swing and miss, but 2 of his first 3 pitches turned into hits. His breaking ball did have swing and miss stuff, his fastball just isn't as overpowering as he thinks it is.

Michael Morales:

Morales was throwing 87 MPH, and was kinda hefty and turned to hide the ball (Brian Fuentes like, but not quite as drastic):

He got a strikeout swinging, but I am afraid that delivery won't work against lefties.

Adam Westbrook was throwing a measly 83 MPH, and was brought in to face a lefty:

However, the lefty was pinch hit for and Westbrook jammed the right handed pinch hitter. He got another grounder, and had a goofy kind of curve-ball that sits inside on lefties.

Kasey Merck was throwing 90 MPH on his fastball, and 80 MPH on his breaking ball:

He has a violent delivery where he throws his whole body around, and seems to sacrifice control for velocity (and he had no control, throwing one in the dirt, and then one down the middle).

Freshman Chad Nack can hit 95 MPH, but I didn't see him pitch, plus he is a freshman, so there is no reason to focus on him yet.

Big thanks to UTA RHP Sam Hansen, who I sat next to at the game, for giving me some radar speeds and some other information. Good luck and best wishes to him on recovering from Tommy John surgery. 

Free Agent Watch: Juan Gutierrez

In 4 seasons Juan Gutierrez has put up a -.4 WAR. In 2011, he had a -.6 WAR. Hasn't started a Major League game since 2007 with the Astros. In his Major League career, he has a .59 PE, high for a reliever. His TR is 7.92, pretty low, and at 28 with 4 years of Major League experience, it is hard to expect him to get any better. He also had Tommy John surgery toward the end of the season, meaning it will be at least mid-way through the season before he can return. While housing a career 4.79 ERA, his FIP is 4.28. He is a flyball pitcher who gives up too many homers, and with his health situation, I don't see why anyone would be dying to pick him up.