Sunday, September 25, 2011

Ian Kennedy and the Cy Young

I don't think pitching records matter at all. They are just decorative and fun, but Arizona Diamondback pitcher Ian Kennedy is 21-4! Kennedy's WAR is 5.5 (Clayton Kershaw is clearly more deserving for the Cy Young at 6.8 WAR). Remember that the Yankees had this guy, and traded him in that 3 team deal that sent Austin Jackson to Detroit and Curtis Granderson to New York. His career in New York was marred by several different injuries. In 3 starts in 07, he had an ERA of 1.89, WHIP of 1.158, and a WAR of .6. This is a WAR per start of .2, Cliff Lee has a .219 WAR per start. Of course for Kennedy in 07, this was a small sample size, but the statistic potential was definitely there. In 2010, his first year in Arizona, he posted a 2.7 WAR in 32 starts. This was only .084 WAR a start, but he had a 3.80 ERA with a WHIP of 1.2, nothing to sneeze at all. This doesn't even mention that he was only making 403 thousand dollars last year, giving him a great WASP of 149.3. I have heard some analysts say that no one could have seen Kennedy's season coming, and I find that quite hard to believe. Only people with their heads in the sand, or people that don't pay attention to numbers could have not saw this coming. In AAA in 09, Kennedy made 4 starts and posted a 1.59 ERA, had more strikeouts than innings pitched, and a WHIP of 1.103. There was a reason the Yankees took him in the first round. Kennedy has put it all together this year, posting a 2.88 ERA, a .17 WAR per start, a WHIP of 1.086, and 8 strikeouts per 9 innings. It has been a very special year, but it should have been expected.

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