The Diamondbacks (maybe) sign Jensen Lewis

The Diamondbacks (it was originally reported that the Rangers made the signing) have signed reliever Jensen Lewis to a $675,000 deal. His last year in the big leagues, 2010, he actually had a .6 WAR which would be a nice WASP of 1125. He actually has a 2.1 WAR in 4 seasons, worth 1.575 million dollars a year. However, he spent all of 2011 in AAA, and didn't pitch all that well with a 3.43 PE and 3.49 adjusted PE. However, it was a small sample size (28.1 innings) and he had a BABIP of nearly .400. It is more helpful to look at his 5 seasons in the International AAA League, where he had a -2.36 PE in 110 innings. According to our AAA metric, this projects to be a .17 PE. For a reliever, that is not very impressive, but its not exactly horrible. In his Major League career (198 innings), he has a -.6 PE and an adjusted PE of -.02. His TR is about 8.77, further cementing his role as an average relief pitcher. He gives up a little bit too much homers at 1.05 HR/9IP, and is more of a flyball pitcher than groundball pitcher. However, he has a nice strikeout ratio, and doesn't walk very many batters. He was somewhat lucky and benefited from good defensive play in Cleveland, but he isn't a bad pitcher and with the crazy money relief pitchers are getting, this was a pretty solid pickup by the Diamondbacks or the Rangers or whoever actually picked him up.

Should the Giants trade Jonathan Sanchez?

Jonathan Sanchez made 4.8 million in 2011, and arbitration will decide how much he will make in 2012. In 2011, he had a WAR of just .1 in 101 innings. Over the past 3 years, Sanchez has a 1.63 WAR average, worth 4.89 million according to the Halladay Standard. However, according to the Giants payroll (8th in the MLB), Sanchez's production would be worth about 4.46 million. According to this metric, Sanchez will certainly be overpaid in 2012. So it certainly seems that he would be worth trading away. In his career, Sanchez has a great -1.44 PE (-1.4 Adjusted PE), but a very pedestrian 8.17 TR. When PE and TR disagree on the quality of a pitcher, I am more inclined to agree with TR because it is more encompassing, not to mention that WAR sides more with TR. He is a very good strikeout pitcher, which is why his PE is so good, but he basically cancels it out with all the free passes he gives up. His best year in 2010 was colored by a very low BABIP .252 and a FIP of almost a full run over his ERA. His career FIP is very unimpressive and very average at 4.30. He doesn't give up many home runs (about .9 per 9 innings), and gives up as many groundballs and flyballs. He just isn't very impressive and isn't worth the salary he will get in 2012 (and will be a free agent after the season) so it makes a lot of sense for the Giants to see what they can get for him.

Chris Leroux the Pirates secret weapon

So far in the Dominican Winter League, Chris Leroux leads the league in ERA, with a .60 in 15 innings as a starter. His WHIP is just .666 and his overall PE is -5.1. In the Majors, he has played with the Marlins and currently with the Pirates. 2011 was the only positive WAR year at .5 in 25 relief innings (-.4 career WAR in 3 years). He was very solid in 2011, with a -1.83 PE (his career PE is a pretty terrible 2.076). He has given up a career OPS of .765, but in 2011 it was just .599. He didn't give up a single home run in 2011 and had an incredible TR of 13.21. To show just how dominant he was in his short time, although his ERA was 2.88, but his FIP was 2.07. He accomplished what he did while giving up a .333 BABIP. One has to expect that to go down, and that will make him an incredible pitcher. It appears that he is Winter Ball to build up strength to be a starter. At 25 innings, his 2011 was certainly a small sample size, but the Pirates obviously saw something and want to try to put him in the rotation. He isn't arbitration eligible until after the 2013 season and won't become a free agent until 2017. Leroux may be a good Pirates pitcher for a large amount of time.

Free Agent Watch: Juan Gutierrez

In 4 seasons Juan Gutierrez has put up a -.4 WAR. In 2011, he had a -.6 WAR. Hasn't started a Major League game since 2007 with the Astros. In his Major League career, he has a .59 PE, high for a reliever. His TR is 7.92, pretty low, and at 28 with 4 years of Major League experience, it is hard to expect him to get any better. He also had Tommy John surgery toward the end of the season, meaning it will be at least mid-way through the season before he can return. While housing a career 4.79 ERA, his FIP is 4.28. He is a flyball pitcher who gives up too many homers, and with his health situation, I don't see why anyone would be dying to pick him up.

Free Agent Watch: Joel Zumaya

Despite injury in 2011, Joel Zumaya had a .8 WAR. He had a 3.4 WAR in 2006, and earned a 4.4 WAR in 5 seasons. This is an .88 WAR average, worth 2.64 million a year.  He actually made 925,000 in 2011. As a reliever, he earned -1.98 PE in 2011, and a -2.48 for his career. He also had a really nice TR of 11.78 in 2011. This is a really good reliever, however, one has to be very careful not to overpay relievers, as Zumaya's career average WAR would only be 1/49th of what is necessary (according to WAR) to make the playoffs. If a team has a 100 million dollar payroll (about the median of Major League payrolls), he is worth about 2 million dollars, not much lower than his worth according to the Halladay Standard. One thing that should concern potential suitors is that his career FIP is almost a full run over his ERA. That certainly has all the makings of a reliever who may turn out to be a disappointment. It is also unlikely he will repeat his 2006 (his first year) success, as his BABIP that year was a pretty unrealistic .246. The 4.94 ERA, 1.45 HR/9 2010 season also looms large. It is also unrealistic to expect that Zumaya will only give up home runs on only 2% of his flyballs. So one wonders if Zumaya will be a trap. I wouldn't give him more than 2 million dollars, and relievers have really been overvalued the past couple of years, so while he has been good, he can certainly be a trap for a big market team. 

Ian Kennedy and the Cy Young

I don't think pitching records matter at all. They are just decorative and fun, but Arizona Diamondback pitcher Ian Kennedy is 21-4! Kennedy's WAR is 5.5 (Clayton Kershaw is clearly more deserving for the Cy Young at 6.8 WAR). Remember that the Yankees had this guy, and traded him in that 3 team deal that sent Austin Jackson to Detroit and Curtis Granderson to New York. His career in New York was marred by several different injuries. In 3 starts in 07, he had an ERA of 1.89, WHIP of 1.158, and a WAR of .6. This is a WAR per start of .2, Cliff Lee has a .219 WAR per start. Of course for Kennedy in 07, this was a small sample size, but the statistic potential was definitely there. In 2010, his first year in Arizona, he posted a 2.7 WAR in 32 starts. This was only .084 WAR a start, but he had a 3.80 ERA with a WHIP of 1.2, nothing to sneeze at all. This doesn't even mention that he was only making 403 thousand dollars last year, giving him a great WASP of 149.3. I have heard some analysts say that no one could have seen Kennedy's season coming, and I find that quite hard to believe. Only people with their heads in the sand, or people that don't pay attention to numbers could have not saw this coming. In AAA in 09, Kennedy made 4 starts and posted a 1.59 ERA, had more strikeouts than innings pitched, and a WHIP of 1.103. There was a reason the Yankees took him in the first round. Kennedy has put it all together this year, posting a 2.88 ERA, a .17 WAR per start, a WHIP of 1.086, and 8 strikeouts per 9 innings. It has been a very special year, but it should have been expected.

Blake Davis and the old right under your nose trick

The Orioles designated Blake Davis for Assignment earlier in the week, placing him on waivers where any team in the league could claim him. No one did, so the Orioles were able to send him to Triple-A. This is curious, both that the Orioles risked this, and that no one claimed him. In the majors, he played 2nd, Short, and 3rd, and in the minors played all three of those positions, and every outfield position (he struggled with errors early on with his minor league career, with 41 in his first two years, but has since cut down on the errors). In 64 Major League plate appearances this year, he had a mediocre average (254) and OBP (323) and a decent OPS (713). In the minors, his numbers are a bit strange, he had a batting average of .280, but the same OBP. He was actually better at working walks in the Majors. He is already 27 and his WAR was in the negative (-.3, but that was because of a -.4 defensive WAR. He was slightly positive on offense) and he hasn't shown much power (only 19 minor league home runs), but he seems to be an improving developing player that can play anywhere on the field, hit a little bit, and steal an occasional base. Surely some team could have used this guy (I am talking about you Giants, Mariners, and Astros)