Does Joba Chamberlain Still Have Value?

Recent reports have the Yankees trying to trade Joba Chamberlain, a one time top prospect that has had problems with both health and ineffectiveness. The Phillies were rumored to be interested, but have since reported that they are not interested. So far this season, Joba is still missing some bats (but has seen a drop), but is walking too many hitters and is having some home run problems. Not the kind of relief pitcher that is going to be extremely valuable.

I think it will be helpful to look at three different seasons for Joba. First, 2009, the only year he was used as a starter in exclusivity (he did have 1 relief appearance, but 31 starts). Then,.2010, when he first moved to the bullpen full time, and because of injuries, really the only year he has been in the bullpen for a full year. As a starter, he was okay, below average, but a quality back of the rotation piece. In 2010, he had a very mediocre year in the bullpen by ERA, but had a good year by defensive independent metrics. The third year in this post that I'll look at is so far in 2013, as we want to determine whether or not he still has present value, by comparing this year to the two previous years, where he did have value.

I'll also break it down by platoon splits, as for his career, Joba has been about equally effective against both lefties and righties, and he was in 2009 and 2010 as well. Obviously 2013 is too small of a sample size to look at splits, but breaking up the graphs by splits gives us a better idea of how he is actually pitching on the whole. First, let's look at how he has pitched lefties since 2008 (including the years we aren't looking at individually)

One thing you notice is that he doesn't change the slider location horizontally by platoon, which can be a problem. However, he does move it vertically, much more than the average pitcher based on platoon splits. He makes sure he throws it lower to lefties on average, as you can see by looking at how he is pitched right-handed batters for his career

As I mentioned before, Joba has not had big platoon splits in his career. The slider is no different, actually better against lefties on a whole (19.6 % swinging strikes against righties, 25.6 % swinging strikes against lefties). The vertical difference would seem to play a big reason for this. Here is how Joba attacked lefties in 2009, as a starter

Obviously the velocity is a tick down, which you would expect as a starter, but it isn't drastically down. He still had pretty good stuff as a starter. The locations are basically the same (the slider might be a little higher), but there is at least some kind of bias, as 2009 has the most pitches. He kept the ball extremely glove side other than the slider. Here are how Joba's results broke down against lefties in 2009

This graph shows how effective the slider was against lefties. His problems came when he threw up in the zone and slightly more glove side (inside to lefties). The velocity drop on the home runs is a little curious. Here are how his average result locations looked like against lefties in 2010:

As a reliever, he clearly threw harder on average, lower and more glove side as well. His home runs came when he went up and in, but the contact came low in the zone like the average pitches, but slower as well. The whiffs came more arm side than they were in 2009, and they were also harder. Joba seems to be the rare pitcher that is more likely to get swinging strikes the harder he throws. Joba has never been a heavy changeup user, but he has just thrown 2 so far in 2013. He threw just 1 to left-handed batters in 2010 (so basically, since he has moved to the bullpen he has ditched the pitch, which makes sense considering his slider is effective regardless of the platoon). Because in 2010 he actually located his slider out of the strike zone on average, this graph is the one where the entire graph is not the strike zone (as the strike zone itself shows) 

The fastball is located both high and low about equally in 2010, showing how he was pitching lower that season. The curve was kept either further away from lefties that season as well. Fast forward to how he is pitching lefties so far this year:

 He is locating even lower with all his pitches on average now, with some reduced overall stuff. However, his fastball has actually seen an uptick. This is why I thought Joba was so interesting. At times I have seen him pitch this year, his fastball still looks great, especially velocity wise. The curve and the slider have dropped in velocity, and he is throwing more glove side with the curve against lefties. As a whole, the curve has been his worst pitch so far this year (by wRC + according to FanGraphs). Here are what his results look like against lefties so far this season

The whiffs are still coming low in the zone and glove side, the general area of the slider. The one home run came on a good fastball, a little higher and arm side than his average pitch, the same location as his average contact given up. The average contact is actually coming on harder pitches, showing that for some reason, his fastball is less effective. I think it does have something to do with the fact that he is throwing it lower on average, even if the contact is higher than the average pitch thrown. His fastball, one of a four seam variety (with an occasional FT tag, that I converted into FF for ease), is meant to be thrown high in the zone. This is what he did when he was a starter, but he isn't doing it anymore. How about against righties? The following three graphs in a row is how he has pitched by average locations and velocity in the three selected years:

Obviously the easiest part of the distinguish the difference is the lack of changeup in 2013, which is probably the least consequential, as he never threw it much anyway. The curve also provides a big difference, as he is throwing it harder (though he is throwing the slider softer, suggesting some tag confusion) and throwing it to the complete glove side, further away than he ever has before. Horizontal curve location, as long as it isn't inside to hitters, doesn't appear to matter much, but whiffs on curves usually come away from hitters, so it would appear, even though the pitch has been awful this year, that he is locating it in a good spot. While he is throwing the fastball more glove side than ever, he is also throwing it higher and harder. He is keeping it up, away, and throwing with premium velocity (the velocity increase from lefties to righties suggest that there probably should be FT tags for Joba, he probably is throwing a moving fastball). It should be more effective than it is.

Joba is getting the whiffs in slider and curveball locations and they are on pitches that he is taking velocity off of on average. The home runs are coming when he isn't getting the ball glove side, and his contact allowed is coming on pitches that are a little higher and more glove side than his average pitch. Compared to 2009-2010, his whiffs are coming on much lower pitches on average this year, but his home runs allowed are lower, and his contact is about the same:

 

Maybe there is a sequencing problem or maybe he is doing some kind of pitch tipping or has a release point that is easy to see. Because of the current numbers, and the injury concerns, Joba doesn't have much real value when it comes to the trade market, but I think he could be an interesting buy low guy. His command doesn't look broken, at least by average locations (he can still locate both arm side and glove side depending on platoon), and his stuff is still really good. Preferably, he gets the fastball up higher on average, but he has the tools to succeed, especially if he gets away from Yankee Stadium where he has struggled.

Does Francisco Rodriguez Have Trade Value?

According to recent trade rumors, the Brewers have been shopping Francisco Rodriguez and several teams are interested him. After his 2012 struggles, off the field issues, and the fact that he had to sign a MiLB contract, him having any real value is somewhat surprising. However, he has been good statistically this year, with a 69 FIP - and a 27.3 K% in 19.2 innings (20 outings).

I'll look at Rodriguez' 2013 so far, comparing it to his 2012 struggles, along with his successful 2011 season, and his 2008 season with the Angels for further reference, a season, which by fWAR, he hasn't repeated since, in order to see if Rodriguez' good start is just a small sample size, or whether the data suggests that he has returned to form and become a valuable trade chip.

First, to get a look whether or not he has "changed" as a pitcher, here are Francisco Rodriguez' release points by season.

So far this year, Rodriguez is releasing the ball higher than he ever has before. In 2008, he was releasing the ball further out than he is now, actually moving closer to the center of the rubber as he declined. While release point consistency proved to be overrated in testing, and it is nearly impossible to look at release point consistency over a full season due to the difference in how it is measured from ballpark to ballpark, we can compare Rodriguez' 2012 and 2013 and see if he is being more consistent or less consistent

There are less pitches this year obviously, but it seems hard to see any difference in consistency. What about how he is locating pitches?

While he is throwing less glove side than last year, he is still throwing glove side on average, something he didn't do in his successful years of 2011 and 2008. So which pitches are drifting more glove side for him? He is basically a 3 pitch pitcher (4 if you split his fastballs, which I don't for the post), so we will start with fastballs

The fastball was more glove side in 2012, and he has moved it closer to arm side on average in 2013 (but still not where it was in 2008 and 2011). His fastball velocity is a little weird, as he was throwing his hardest in 2008, but the 2nd hardest in 2012. His fastball velocity has regressed back to closer where it was in 2011, a successful season for him. Why he had success with it in 2011 despite the velocity must be from location, but the struggles in 2012 despite the good velocity and the success in 2013 despite the bad velocity, if you trust the MLBAM tags, could be the usage of the 2-seam fastball. In 2012, he threw a lot of 2-seamers, and it was a really unsuccessful pitch. So far in 2013, MLBAM tags have him no longer throwing this pitch. 2-seamers usually don't move glove side, so I don't know if that explains the location difference or not.

 

There is no real velocity difference from year to year, and other than his 2011 blip, he has located it glove side on average. So we don't really get any conclusive results here, so what about his changeup?

Just like the fastball, this is another pitch that has drifted glove side after originally being an arm side pitch. Just like the fastball, he is getting it more arm side this year. The velocity drop on the change has been more dramatic than the curveball, really mimicking the fastball.

By throwing less glove side this season, I do think there is some validity to Rodriguez' fast start. I do think he has some value out of the bullpen, but I don't think there is any reason to believe that he is 2008 Rodriguez, or even 2011 Rodriguez.

 

Ricky Nolasco and Pitching With Runners on Base

One of the more obvious trade candidates for the 2013 trade deadline is Ricky Nolasco of the Miami Marlins, a free agent at year's end. Nolasco has performed well this year, and has been an above average starter for his career according to defensive independent metrics, with a 3.77 career kwERA. 

Much has been written (but usually from a statistical perspective and not a Pitch F/X perspective) on Nolasco's inability to live up to his DIPS, particularly because of poor numbers while pitching with runners on base, for his career. However, this year, his ERA is actually better than his FIP. I wanted to take a pitch F/X look, using location, velocity, and pitch selection, at how he is pitching with runners on base compared to when there is not.

Since we are only really concerned about what he is now, we will only look at this season. I broke down all the pitches he threw with a runner on base (if I am using Baseball Savant right) and compared it to his pitches for the year on a whole. I am calling the FT designation a sinker, for no good reason (there were also a handful of cutters, I combined them with the fastball because there simply weren't very many of them).

So here are his average locations, broken down by MLBAM type with the average velocities in parenthesis (with the average release point and the average of all pitches for perspective) as a whole for 2013 regardless of situation (you can get a better look at the pictures by clicking on them):

Here is Nolasco with runners on base:

As far as velocity goes, both his fastballs are actually slightly harder with runners on base, no real difference, which isn't a surprise. With location, there is a difference, as nearly every pitch (the changeup is the exception) is more arm side when runners are not on base. This would suggest, though there isn't a real difference in release point, that he may have some problems finishing his pitches when out of the stretch. This doesn't seem to be entirely unusual as the Marlins on a whole for 2013 (just looking at 4-seam fastballs) keep the ball slightly more arm side with runners on base. It isn't quite as dramatic as Nolasco's (The Marlins average about .05 more arm side with runners on base, while Nolasco's is .11 on all pitches and .22 on fastballs), but it doesn't seem to be an unusual trend. The important thing I think is that the height's are virtually the same (he is actually throwing the splitter lower with runners on base), which I think rules out anything really wrong with his delivery out of the stretch, though cutting down on his effectiveness to throw to both sides of the plate could be harmful.

As far as pitch selection goes, the only real difference is that he throws more sinkers (or moving fastballs, FT) with runners on base, throwing less 4-seamers. This makes some sense as he may be trying to induce double plays, and he has become more of a groundball pitcher in recent years. It is hard to see which pitch is better than the other, as statistically, neither his fastball or sinker have been plus, and they have flip flopped in effectiveness. The increased sinker usage is obviously going to give him less whiffs, but more groundballs. He is a high fastball pitcher, actually pretty extreme at throwing his fastball high, and his sinker actually is more in the middle of the plate, so I do like the 4-seamer more and think, that even with his lack of velocity, he should be more willing to give up flyballs, ideally getting more strikeouts. The latest round of rumors have him pitching for the Giants or Dodgers, two parks that are friendly for fly-balls, so throwing more 4-seamers would at least seem to be a good strategy.

Mike Leake Scouting Report

With reports of the Reds re-signing Jonathan Broxton, reporter John Fay believes that it will be easy for the Reds to move Mike Leake, as this most likely signals that Aroldis Chapman is finally moving to the rotation. Fay believes that Leake still has decent trade value despite having a rough season.

When you actually look at Mike Leake's advanced metrics, he was really no different in 2012:

2010: 115 FIP -, 104 xFIP -, 4.33 SIERA

2011: 108 FIP -, 95 xFIP, 3.76 SIERA

2012: 111 FIP -, 98 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA

Along with his career ERA - of 106, it appears that Leake is a slightly below average starter. It does seem, if his xFIP and SIERA are any indications, that he has some pretty major home run issues and would benefit from a more pitcher friendly park. The Reds' park has a 107 park factor over the last 3 years, and Leake has a career 1.26 HR/9IP and 14.6 HR/FB %, certainly supporting that point. Since the HR/FB % spiked in 2012, it made his ERA worse and got him left off of the playoff roster. When Johnny Cueto injured himself in the first start of the post-season, Leake was added to the roster and started game 4. At the Great American Ballpark against the Giants, the start didn't go well, as Leake gave up a homer on the 2nd pitch of the game and gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings, striking out just one and walking 2 (2 homers in all).

Leake was drafted 10th overall by the Reds in 2009 out of Arizona State as an advanced pitcher that didn't have a high ceiling, but didn't need to pitch in the minors either (making his MLB debut before his MiLB debut, and pitching in just 2 MiLB games so far). The 25 year old right-hander's stuff is certainly below average, with an average fastball under 90 MPH, using more cutters and sinkers than 4-seam fastballs. It seems that he is relying less and less on his slider that averages a little more than 81 MPH (dropping from nearly 18% usage to 8-9% usage in 2012), along with a change and a (not slow) curve. In going back and reading old scouting reports, it seems that it was unclear as to what was his best pitch. His sinker is really similar in velocity to pitchers like David Pauley, Wandy Rodriguez, and Ian Kennedy. The horizontal movement on it is similar to those like Cliff Lee, Jarrod Washburn, and Ryan Vogelsong. Vertically, his sinker breaks a lot like the sinkers of Roy Halladay and Jerome Williams. His cutter breaks horizontally like former teammate's Travis Wood and the Houston Astros' Lucas Harrell. Vertically, it is like Matt Harrison's and Chris Carpenter's. These are some pretty good names. The curve breaks like the curves of Stephen Strasburg and A.J. Griffin (two curves I like) horizontally, and Anibal Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy, and Paul Maholm vertically. The slider's horizontal movement is similar to Zach Greinke and Jake Arrieta and vertically like Ricky Nolasco, Brandon Beachy, and Johnny Cueto. His change is also similar to Beachy horizontally, as well as Gil Meche and John Danks. Vertically, it is like Barry Zito's and Roy Oswalt's.

Just from times I have seen him, it seems that his sinker occasionally drifts up and that is why he gives up so many homers. The lack of stuff makes the occasional mistake more costly. When he throws it down and away at the bottom of the strikezone against righties, it is a really nice pitch. However, when it gets up, it is straight and pretty hittable. Because of his stuff and lack of a real 4-seamer, he really can't live high in the zone, though he sometimes does (ineffectively), which limits his ability to move the hitters eyes and makes him less dangerous when it comes to missing bats (which is one of the reasons that his strikeout totals are so low). The closest he comes to throwing a pitch high is when he throws his cutter (to right-handed hitters especially) in the somewhat middle of the plate (height-wise, it usually stays off the plate, and even though the velocity is usually a little lower, it seems like a less hittable pitch). It seems that he would rather go away from both lefties and righties, not wanting to go inside.
The slider is somewhat of a frisbee slider, almost knuckling with some pretty soft (but dramatic and sweeping) break to the left-handed batters box (it is so soft that Pitch F/X often confuses it for the curves when it dips to 80 MPH or lower). His curveball is a pretty hard curveball that drops quickly without big loop.

There is a little evidence from his overall release point chart that he has raised his release point slightly since coming into the Majors, but from looking at a bunch of individual game date, it seems he has actually just been more consistent (something you would expect to see as a pitcher matures and develops. An alternative explanation would be, something I saw in at least one report, that he used to occasionally drop his arm angle, whether unintentional or intentional. He could simply no longer be doing this, which would make the release point data pretty noisy). Because he is "just" 6 foot tall, he doesn't quite get the downward plane that most pitchers do (although he releases the ball higher than Johnny Cueto) because he lets go of the ball below 6 feet high.

Known for his pitchability, Leake doesn't discriminate when it comes to who he throws his cutter to, and still throws his change to righties about 6% of the time (just short of half the time he throws it to lefties). If he has a pitch he really likes to go to for a strikeout, it is the slider against both lefties and righties. Interestingly, he throws the curve more against lefties than he does against righties. It is the only pitch that he throws for strikes less than 60 % of the time, with the cutter being the pitch he throws for strikes the most (perhaps the reason that there isn't much variation when he throws it, throwing it somewhere around 20-24% of the time regardless of the situation). The slider, which makes sense considering that he throws it so much two strikes, is the only pitch he gets many whiffs with. He gives up more contact than league average and gets far less swings and misses than average. So his game has to be weak pop-ups (it isn't) or ground-balls (48.9 GB % in his career, very solid). This is why he throws so many sinkers and cutters (his slider also gets a lot of ground-balls). These pitches have also helped him have basically no platoon splits, about equally effective against both lefties and righties.

So far, Leake has not reached 200 innings in a season, setting a career high in 2012 with a 179. To be a valuable mid-rotation starter, one needs to be a good innings eater, something Leake has not been so far. He was put on the DL in 2010 thanks to shoulder fatigue, but I am not convinced that is something to be concerned about. It also doesn't look he wears down a the end of the year, at least as far as effectiveness goes. At his age, I think his new team has to let him really eat up innings in 2013. As mentioned above, the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark has really hurt Leake, as he has an ERA of almost a full run higher at home in his career. One of the less friendly home run parks would make Leake a significantly better pitcher. Especially if the team has a good infield (which would seem to be what he had with the Reds) that would turn a lot of Leake's ground-balls into outs. I think he can be a guy in the middle of the rotation and pitch at a league average rate with a new team. He is first year arbitration eligible this off-season, and according to MLB Trade Rumors, he is projected to make 2.9 million for 2013 (not to mention two more years of control after that). That is a bargain for a middle of the rotation pitcher, especially considering what Scott Feldman got (6 million), an injured Scott Baker (5.5 million) got, and especially what Jeremy Guthrie got (3 guaranteed years for 20 million. This doesn't mention that Bartolo Colon got 3 million and he is coming off a suspension and is 39). I think Leake has quite a bit of trade value (even if he is a slightly below average pitcher because of his lack of stuff) and the Reds should get a good package for him.

The Travis Wood-Sean Marshall trade

The Cubs traded Sean Marshall to the Reds for Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes.

Marshall had a 2.5 WAR in 2011, and a 1.7 WAR average over the past 3 years. This is a bargain at a 3.1 million dollar salary for 2012, but he is a free agent afterwards. In 2011, he had a -3.75 PE, and -4.15 Adjusted PE. For his career, his PE is .33. In 2011 he pitched like a closer-type, but for his career, he has not very good reliever numbers. That is because earlier in his career, he was used many times as a starter. The Reds are probably not going to use him in this role, so it makes sense just to look at 2010 and 2011, the two years where he only pitched as a reliever. Those two years, he put up FIP - of 55 and 46, and SIERA's of 2.34 and 2.20. This is much better than their previous 9th inning man, Francisco Cordero, and is slightly better than Jonathan Papelbon and Ryan Madson.

Wood has a 1.5 WAR in 208.2 innings, which is about a full season. Fangraphs actually gives him a 3.3 WAR, as his PE is .99, but his adjusted PE is .56, virtually all as a starter. This is pretty solid. His FIP - is 94 with a SIERA of 4.22. He is a flyball pitcher, but he hasn't been bitten by the longball. He has given up a lot of line drives, but seems to be a pretty average starting pitcher that doesn't cost anything and is under club control for quite a while.

Ronald Torreyes is 19, and has never played above A ball. However, he has been pretty good, earning a .419 OBP and .935 OPS. He doesn't walk much, at just 5.3%, and he isn't a home run hitter.

Dave Sappelt has played in 38 games in MLB, so it is more helpful to look at his minor league statistics. He has 451 PA in AAA, so we should look there. There he had a .374 OBP, .838 OPS, and 3.16 Simple WAR. This translates to a .328 OBP and 1.67 Simple WAR. He is below average at Center Field however.

It appears to me that the Cubs won this trade. Even though the Reds got an under the radar elite relief pitcher, they gave up a cheap average starter, and a center fielder that is a good hitter and major league ready.

Jason Marquis signs with the Twins

The Twins signed Jason Marquis to a 1 year 3 million dollar deal. At the end of the trade deadline, I wrote something kind of silly. I wrote that the trade for Jason Marquis by the Diamondbacks for minor leaguer Zack Walters was a pretty obvious win for the Diamondbacks. This turned out to be quite dumb, as Marquis had a -1 WAR before getting hurt with the Diamondbacks. Walters has never played about A ball, but has a .357 OBP and .807 OPS. When looking at Marquis statistics, there has obviously been some regression in his 12 year career. In the first 3 years of his career, he had strikeout rates of 6.6, 6.8, and 6.6 K/9 IP. The last 3 years have looked like this: 4.8, 4.8, 5.2 K/9 IP. This means that looking at his career numbers would be extremely misleading and pointless. So instead, lets look at his last 3 years. In that time, he has a 1.5 WAR, or .5 WAR a season. This is only worth half of the 3 million dollars the Twins are going to give him. His PE was a terrible 3.933, but he walks less batters than average, and throws less pitches per plate appearance than average. But his FIP - has been worse than  league average over the last two years, and he had an average TR of 9.09 in 2011. He does get plenty of groundballs, and is spotty with homers, but his SIERA's over the last 3 years are 4.15, 4.76, and 4.61. 3 million dollars seems to be a lot of money for Jason Marquis.

Analyzing the Gio Gonzalez trade

The Athletics traded Gio Gonzalez to the Washington Nations for A.J. Cole, Brad Peacock, Derek Norris, and Tom Milone. Gio had a 5 WAR in 2011 (despite making just $420,000) and a 4.6 WAR average in his 2 full seasons. His career PE is -.86, with an adjusted PE of -.73. However, his career FIP - is average at 100, and his SIERA is 4.05, hardly impressive. His TR was similarly unimpressive at 8.74. In fact, the only really good thing you can say about Gio is that he has a very good strikeout rate for a starter. Other than that, he seems pretty average.

Cole has never pitched above A ball, but was phenomenal there, earning a -3.16 PE as a starter. To give you an idea of just how good that was, in the league he pitched in (the South Atlantic League), the average PE was .281. Even better was his adjusted PE at -4.63. He didn't walk many batters and he didn't give up many homers either. Even better, he is just 19, when the average pitcher in the league was 22. He is certainly AA ready.

Peacock has 9 AAA starts under his belt, and earned a -2.54 PE. This projects to about an even 0 PE in the Majors, pretty good for a starter. However, his adjusted PE is a full run higher, meaning he would adjust to a 1 PE, which would be solid but nothing special. However, since it is only 9 starts, it makes sense to look at his AA numbers as well. There (mostly as a starter) he registered a -4.7 PE. Even though we don't yet have a pitcher's AA metric, we can assume that a regression for a pitcher from AA to AAA would be very similar to a hitters. According to Simple WAR, hitters put up just 67.7% of the numbers in AAA than they do in AA. This would lower Peacock's PE to -3.18, better than he actually pitched in his 9 starts in AAA. This would adjust to a -.65 Major League PE, almost as good as Gio.

Norris spent 2011 in AA, playing in 104 games. There he had a .367 OBP, .813 OPS, 2.4 PAPP, 1.48 PPG, adding up to a 3 Simple WAR. This means that already, at age 22, he projects to be a .64 O-WAR player. This is while being a catcher who throws out 40% of base runners, and an above average range factor. It is not crazy to believe that he could already step into the Majors and put up a 2 WAR if given enough playing time.

Milone spent 2011 in AAA, posting a -2.75 PE as a starter. This projects to a -.22 PE in the Majors. In 2010, he spent the year in AA, and had a PE of -2.2. This obviously doesn't project near as well.There are a couple ways to explain it, he could have improved, and his FIP is better than his ERA in both AA and AAA. For what it is worth, the Bill James projections have him earning a very nice -1.22 PE.

I think it is pretty obvious that the Athletics won this trade. Even though Gio is a decent starter with a low salary, the A's got 4 players who project to be good in the Majors.

Ryan Perry swapped for Collin Balester

The Tigers traded Ryan Perry to the Nationals for Collin Balester

Balester had a -.3 WAR in 2011, and a -.6 WAR for his career. He has a 2.22 PE for his career, with a 2.34 Adjusted PE mostly as a reliever with 22 starts mixed in earlier in his career. His FIP - is 128 with a BABIP of .295, and he has struggled massively with homers at 1.67 HR/9IP. SIERA is a little nicer to him with a 4.28 career number, and he has slightly more groundballs than flyballs. He isn't arbitration eligible yet.

Perry had a -.4 WAR in 2011, but has a .7 career WAR. He has a .76 PE, with an adjusted PE of .97, all as a reliever. He has a career FIP - of 99, and SIERA of 4.28 (mysteriously the same as Balester's). He has done a good job avoiding the long ball, with a .78 HR/9IP. He has a higher walk rate that Balester and a very similar groundball rate. He is arbitration eligible. Perry is, according to most metrics, the better pitcher. Even though his salary will probably be higher than Balester's, I think the Nationals win this trade.

The Jed Lowrie trade

The Red Sox traded Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland to the Astros for Mark Melancon.

Melancon is coming off his best year in his short career, with a 1.2 WAR. He isn't arbitration eligible, meaning he will make minimum wage for 2 more years. He threw 74.1 innings (more than all other years combined) in 2011, and had a -1.68 PE and -1.21 Adjusted PE as the Astros 9th inning man. Most "closers" (whatever the 9th inning man should be called) have much better PEs than this. He has a career SIERA of 3.26, gets lots of groundballs, and doesn't give up many homers.

Lowrie had a .3 WAR in 2011, and has a 3.8 WAR in 4 years, a .95 WAR average. He is arbitration eligible and is projected to make 1.2 million dollars according to MLB Trade Rumors. This is a very solid WASP of 1263 if Lowrie puts up his Average WAR. He is an under average fielding shortstop, and had a pretty poor fielding 2011. He has a career OBP of .324, 92 OPS +, and .267 Secondary Average. His Runs Created per game is 4.7, even though his Offensive Winning Percentage is .494. He walks above average, but homers below average. All things considered, Lowrie is a pretty average shortstop at a very reasonable salary.

Weiland has just 24.2 career major league innings. However, he had 24 AAA starts in 2011. He had a -1.71 PE and -1.57 Adjusted PE. Through the AAA metric, this translates to a .82 PE and .96 Adjusted PE. This is pretty solid for a starter. He didn't give up a bunch of homers (.7 HR/9IP), and had a reasonable walk rate.

I like this trade for the Astros. They trade away a decent cheap reliever, but they get a pitcher who should quickly be pretty good in the rotation, and a decent shortstop at a low price. This seems to be another example of late inning relievers being overvalued.

The Tyler Colvin-Ian Stewart Trade

The Cubs traded Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu to the Rockies for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers.

I have a write up on DJ LeMahieu already, and noted that his college statistics weren't impressive and thought it was interesting the Cubs drafted him in the first round anyway. He struggled in the small sample size in the Majors, and had just a .328 OBP in 58 AAA games.

Colvin has really struggled in 221 Major League games with a -.5 WAR, .274 OBP, and 84 OPS +. There are some positive things though, he has only had a .250 BABIP, one expects that to improve, has a decent Secondary Average of .294, and a very nice ISO of .207. While he doesn't really walk, he hits more extra base hits than average. One concerning thing is his lack of line drives, but his .447 Offensive Winning percentage and 4 Runs Created Per Game could improve. His defense has been spotty, he was good in 2011, but horrible in 2010.

Stewart had a terrible 2011 with a -1.2 WAR, but had a 1.3 WAR in 2010. Defensively, he has played under replacement level for the past 3 years. Offensively, it makes a lot of sense to throw out his 2011 season, as he just had 136 PAs, and a BABIP of .224. This is a pretty corrupted statistical sample. So what about 2010? He had a .338 OBP, 97 OPS +, and .308 BABIP. This was a much more reliable sample size (441 PA), and he had a .560 Offensive Winning Percentage and 5.2 Runs Created per Game. His Secondary Average and ISO are both solid, and he is an above average home run hitter and walker. Many don't like him because he strikes out a bunch, but I think strikeouts for hitters can be overrated.

Weathers is a minor league pitcher who hasn't pitched above AA. But in his minor league career, he has a -3.72 PE, all as a reliever. He looks to be far away, but he gets nearly 12 strikeouts per 9 innings. He does walk a whole lot of batters (he has a .190 BAA but has a WHIP of over 1.4), so in that sense he is sort of a Marmol type. He doesn't give up many HR/9IP, and he is a possible future closer option. I like this trade for the Cubs because I like Stewart over Colvin and Weathers over LeMahieu.

The Casey McGehee trade

The Brewers traded Casey McGehee to the Pirates for Jose Veras.

Casey McGehee is coming off a terrible season where he had a .280 OBP and 69 OPS +. He had a -1 WAR, despite having a 3 WAR in 2011. He is projected (by MLB Trade Rumors) to make 3.1 million dollars in 2011, meaning he needs to have a WAR over 1 (or perhaps more for the low payroll Pirates). In 2011, he had a disastrous .223 BABIP, obviously a huge reason for his poor season. Overall, McGehee has a .320 OBP, 1.706 O4S, and 99 OPS +. These are pretty average, as well as his 4.5 Runs Created Per Game with a .494 Offensive Winning Percentage. His Secondary Average is .242, and his ISO is .161. These are about average numbers, the only thing that concerns me offensively is that he hit more groundballs in 2011 and less line drives. Maybe that is an anomaly, but this could partially explain the BABIP. Defensively, he isn't very good, with a -.2 D-WAR in his career, and a below average range factor and fielding percentage in 2011.

Jose Veras has been a career reliever, with a .7 WAR, with a .23 WAR average over the last 3 years, worth about $700,000. He had a PE of -2.95 in 2011, and an adjusted PE of -3.25. This is not quite with the elite relievers of the game, Veras is a very solid one. The ball is rarely hit hard off him with a career .257 BABIP, but he gives up about 1 HR/9IP and more flyballs than groundballs. He has a FIP - of 103, and a SIERA of 3.83. He is a decent reliever, but it is hard to argue that he is worth a decent position player. This is why I give the edge to the Pirates on this trade, as long as Casey McGehee bounces back in 2012.

Dana Eveland trade

The Dodgers traded Dana Eveland to the Orioles for Jarret Martin and Tyler Henson.

Eveland had a .6 WAR in 2011, but had a WAR average of -.17 over the past 3 years and a -1.1 WAR for his career (360 innings). As both a starter and a reliever, he has a PE of 4.23 for his career, with an adjusted PE of 3.09. His career SIERA is 4.79 and his TR is equally unimpressive at 7.4. His FIP - is 104, further cementing him as below average, although it is worth noting that Fangraphs has his WAR at 3.9 for his career, which I can't really figure out.

Tyler Henson has 123 games in AAA, and has a .313 OBP, .634 OPS, 3.13 PAPP, and .84 PPG. So he is a below replacement AAA player with no real defensive position.

Jarret Martin has never pitched above A ball, and has a career -.174 PE, mainly as a starter. Although this is in A ball, he has the most potential to do anything positive in the Majors out of the 3 it seems. So for this mostly inconsequential trade, I will give the Dodgers the slight edge.

Was it time for the Rockies to give up Huston Street?

The Rockies gave up Huston Street for a player to be named later from the Padres. The Padres will reportedly pick up almost all of Street's salary. This is curious because the Padres are always toward the bottom in league payroll and Street will make 7.5 million in 2012. Can the Padres afford to pay that much for a reliever? The obvious answer is no. The Padres had just 45 million dollars in payroll in 2011, meaning they can only afford just above a million dollars per WAR if they expect to make the playoffs. So Street would be expected to make a 7.5 WAR in 2012 right? It is impossible for a reliever to put up that kind of WAR, and only the elite starting pitchers accomplish this. In fact, over the past 3 years, Street has a WAR average of 1.13, worth just over a million dollars to the salary (and 3.4 million according to the Halladay Standard). There has also been some regression on Street's part as these statistics show (hattip to High Heat Stats, the order is 09/10/11):

ERA+:      154 / 129 / 117
K/9:      10.2 / 8.6 / 8.5
WHIP:    0.908 / 1.056 / 1.217
HR/9:      1.0 / 1.0 / 1.5

This is further shown by PE: in 2011, his PE was -.07 compared to a career PE

of -2.75. The latter is much closer to the elite relief pitchers, but he pitched like an 

average competent reliever in 2011. One may scream "Coors!", but that doesn't 

explain the smaller strikeout rate. He did have a SIERA of 2.76 in 2011, and in the

Padres very spacious park, there is a chance he could have an ERA of even lower 

in 2012. However, he certainly isn't worth that kind of money. 

Along with being able to dump salary, the Rockies also got Nick Schmidt as the 

player to be named later. Schmidt has never even been to AA, so it is hard to

project where he will be according to our metrics, but he has had a serviceable

.66 PE as a starter in his minor league career. He is a little old though at 26, 

but the big thing is that the Rockies got rid of that terrible contract, and that is

why they are winners in this deal. 

How much value does Maicer Izturis have?

Their are rumors that the Tigers are going to try to trade for the Angels infielder Maicer Izturis. In 2011, he had a 3.3 WAR, giving him a very good WASP of 990. Over the past 3 years, Izturis has a WAR average of 2.6, worth 7.8 million (he will make just 3.8 million in 2012). He is coming off his best year defensively at a 1.4 D-WAR. As far as I can see, D-WAR is not predictive. For example Carlos Lee went from a -2 D-WAR in 2010 to a NL leading 2.1 D-WAR in 2011 (this could be partly explained by Lee playing more first base in 2011, but that can't explain all of it).That is not to say that D-WAR is useless, I think the basic formula for runs saved is solid. It is just not predictive. He has a 2.9 WAR in his 9 year career, which is .3625 D-WAR average per year. That defense alone is worth over a million dollars. So what is his offense like? His OBP is not real impressive at .339, and his OPS + is just 95 (with an O4S of 1.745). His Secondary Average and Isolated Slugging are perhaps more disappointing at .226 and .114, but he has an offensive winning percentage just short of .500 and 4.8 Runs Created Per Game (the American League scored 4.46 runs per game in 2011, so according to that metric he is above average). He is by no means a home run hitter, and he walks about average, but he does have a decent PPS of 92.07. All around he seems to be a very average offensive player. However, once you add his good defensive play, and reasonable salary, he becomes pretty valuable. However, knowing the Angels (at least professed) emphasis on defense, it would probably take a lot to pry away Izturis from them.

Should the Cubs trade Randy Wells?

Randy Wells had just a .6 WAR in 2011. However, he had a 2.27 WAR average over the past 3 years (his only 3 full years in the big leagues). He is arbitration eligible, and is projected to make about 2.25 million dollars. This would be a very good 1101 WASP. 2011 was not a very good year for Wells, as he had a 3.57 PE and 3.69 adjusted PE. He did this despite only having a .275 BABIP. He had a TR of just above 6.5, and struggled with the longball at 1.53 HR/9IP. In his career, he has a PE of 2.03 and TR of 8.79. Neither of those numbers are impressive, but he is a groundball pitcher that has a mediocre SIERA of 4.33. He is probably about a 3 or 4 starter in a rotation, but, at least according to the WAR he has been putting up, he is underpaid. The Bill James protections have him putting up a 1.83 PE in 2012, which may be a little kind, as it gave him more strikeouts that usual. Wells is basically an average pitcher that isn't very impressive, but not bad at all as his ERA - (97) and FIP - (102) show. I don't see him having a lot of trade value, and with the problems the Cubs have had with pitching, I don't see the reason for them trying to move him.

Should the Padres trade Orlando Hudson?

The Padres, a team that doesn't spend a lot of money (this seems to be by choice rather than by ability), is reportedly thinking about moving Orlando Hudson. He is scheduled to make 5.5 million in 2012. That is quite a problem, because he had a 4000 WASP (over the Halladay Standard of 3000) with a 4 million dollar salary. Over the past 3 years, he has had a 2.23 WAR, which would be a 2466 WASP for his 2012 salary. So was he poor 2011 season (1 WAR) an aberration, or is that what we should expect from Hudson from now on? For one, he had a career worst D-WAR in 2011, at -.7. I don't find defensive statistics very predictive, but at age 33, it is very likely that his defensive skills has diminished (his Range Factor was certainly poorer). So we will assume a -.7 D-WAR for 2012 to stay on the safe side (he has a 1.6 D-WAR in his 10 year career, so we will keep the number .16 around for theoretical purposes as well). In his 10 year career, he has a 20.1 O-WAR, so an average of 2.01 O-WAR (for the record, his Simple WAR is 1.42 for his career). In 2011, his O-WAR was 1.7 (His Simple WAR was .35). At his 2012 salary, Hudson will be about 12 percent of San Diego's salary. This means that, to justify his percentage of salary (assuming the Padres are trying to win 95 games), he would have to have a WAR of 5.23 according to my (sometimes shaky) math. Of course, Hudson has never come close to this. He would actually only need 1.83 WAR to meet the Halladay Standard, and it would be doubtful he could even reach that (if we look at his career Offensive WAR and assume a -.7 D-WAR). I thought it was slight insanity that the Padres didn't move him during the season, and it would be pure insanity if they didn't move him now.

Why did the Phillies want Ty Wiggington?

The Phillies traded for Ty Wiggington from the Rockies. They only gave cash considerations or perhaps a player to be named later, but still I feel myself asking why the Phillies would do this. Wiggington is going to make 4 million dollars in 2012 (not to mention whatever amount of money the Phillies end up giving), which would necessitate a 1.3 WAR according to the Halladay Standard. The problem is that he has only done that once, in 2008, where he had a 2.4 WAR. In 2011, he had a -1.1 WAR, in fact, over the past 3 years, he has averaged a -.93 WAR. So the Phillies have decided to trade for a below replacement player and give a whole bunch of money for him. Wiggles is an awful defender, with a career -11.2 D-WAR, and below average Range Factor at every position he has ever played (and he has played nearly every position). His career offensive numbers look like this: .325 OBP, 100 OPS, 1.743 O4S, and 2.84 PAPP. These are all profoundly average numbers, and certainly not the cure to a struggling offense. His offensive winning percentage is .490, with 4.8 runs created per game. His PPS is just 87.05, and he is an below average walker at 7.3%. He is a bit of a masher at a 3.5 home run percentage and 8.9% extra base hitter, but his overall inefficiencies probably wash this out. When one wonders why the Phillies can't finish things out despite having such an amazing pitching staff, one needs to look no further than moves like this. They pay tons of money for an average hitter and horrible fielder.

The Leblanc-Baker trade

 The Marlins shipped catcher John Baker to the Padres for pitcher Wade Leblanc.

With Florida, Baker had a 1.7 WAR in 4 seasons and 760 PA. Adjusted for 600 PA, this would be a 1.34 WAR, worth 4 million according to the Halladay Standard. Baker made just 417,000 in 2011, but is arbitration eligible. Baker has a .356 OBP, OPS + of 99, and 04S of 1.825. His Runs Created per Game metric is 5.1, earning a .525 Offensive Winning Percentage. His Secondary Average and ISO aren't that impressive at .254 and .130 respectively. While being an under average home run hitter (1.8%), he is an average extra base hitter and a far above average walker (10.8%), with a decent PPS of 93.48.

Leblanc has a .4 WAR in 4 seasons as a starter, pitching 293.1 innings. Adjusted for 200 innings, this is a .27 WAR, worth $818,275. He should make minimum salary in 2012, which is now $480,000. However, when he first broke into the Majors in 2008, he had a -.8 WAR in 21.1 innings. Since then he has obviously had a 1.2 WAR in 272 innings, which is .88 WAR adjusted to 200 innings. He has a career PE of 2.35 (adjusted PE of 2.66), and SIERA of 4.62. It is really clear that the Padres won this trade over the Marlins.

Why its time for the Rangers to trade Michael Young

Yes, you read that right, The Rangers should trade Michael Young. Despite making 16 million dollars (he will also make 16 million for 2012 and 2013) in 2011, he had a 2.4 WAR. This is a WASP of 6667, over twice as much as the Halladay Standard. This means, at least according to the Halladay Standard, his salary is over twice is much as his production is actually worth. In 2011, the Rangers had a payroll of about 92 million dollars. This means that, according to WAR calculations that I have used before on this blog, for every 1 Win above Replacement (assuming the Rangers want to make the playoffs by winning 95 games), they can pay 2.13 million dollars. This means that Young's 2.4 WAR is worth 5.11 million dollars, about a third as much as Young makes. According to his WAR average of the past 3 years, he is worth slightly more to the Rangers at 5.68 million. These simple calculations show that Young is hurting the Rangers with his gigantic salary and low production, and that it is quite obvious that the Rangers need to trade him. However, let's look at other numbers to see if they tell the same story. In 2011, some of his basic metrics looked pretty good, as he had a .380 OBP, 124 OPS +, and 1.994 O4S. He had an Offensive Winning Percentage of .666 and 6.7 Runs Created per a game. These are very good numbers, but there are a couple of concerning ones that I think shouldn't be ignored, such as Secondary Average (just .217), ISO (.136), walk percentage (6.8%), HR percentage (1.6%), and pitches per plate appearance (3.61, with a PPS of just 89.67). So many essential metrics suggest that Young was not all that great offensively. He was also 5th in the league in BABIP with a .367. This most likely means that his positive 2011 season statistics were probably very fluky. He actually has an above average BABIP at .338 for his career, but it is still a .029 difference. If that BABIP was adjusted to his career average, his OBP would have been .350, less impressive, but also exactly his career OBP. Along with that career OBP, he has a 106 OPS +, 1.851 O4S (about .100 above average), .554 Offensive Winning Percentage, 5.6 Runs Created Per Game, and .229 Secondary Average. Again, most of these are pretty good numbers. His PPS is 91.15, and this is a microcosm of Young, just above average offensively. On defense, there is a different story. In his 12 year career, he has a -7.9 D-WAR. Much is made about his ability to play several different positions, but it appears he plays none of them very well. In 2011, he had a -.9 D-WAR, despite playing 69 games at DH. At first base (a position he hadn't played before), he was very poor, with a Range Factor of 7.78 (league average is 9.24), and fielding percentage of .989 (league average is .993). He also had below average range factor at every position he played in 2011. "Runs Saved" metrics also showed that he was a well below average defender. To give you another idea of just how poor of a defender Young is, when at third, 85% of balls hit to him turned into outs (89% is league average), and at first 86% of balls hit to him were turned into outs (94% is league average for first basemen). Much is written about Young's leadership skills and team attitude (and in following the Rangers for almost all of Young's career, I can say that a lot of this is true. However, Young ran to the press to blast Ranger's management after both his move to 3rd base and 1st base/DH, and even demanded to be traded. His team attitude is probably overrated, he is, after all, making 16 million dollars), but these immeasurables are just that, immeasurable. In the face of numbers that clearly show that Young is not even close to worth his 16 million dollar salary, and the fact that he has no real position, it simply doesn't make any sense to say "he is a good leader, and therefore he is valuable". With the Rangers stupidly deciding to give a whole bunch of money to Joe Nathan, and players like Cruz, Hamilton, Feldman, and Uehara all making big money or due big money, it is obviously time for the Rangers to move on.

Will the Cubs trade Marmol?

Rumors are now swirling that the Cubs may consider trading closer Carlos Marmol. Marmol had a .9 WAR in 2011, with a WAR average over the past 3 years of 1.8. This is worth 5.4 million, but he is scheduled to make 7 million dollars in 2012. So certainly according to WAR, it is definitely time for the Cubs to move on. As one would expect for the type of pitcher he is, he registered a very good -4.65 PE, and an adjusted PE of -5.12 in 2011. In his career, his PE is -5.33, with an adjusted PE of -4.95. In 2011, his TR was 9.54, while it is 9.48 for his career. According to his career statistics, 2011 was a pretty good window, that is what you are going to get. The Bill James Projections don't give him quite the credit, but still have him at a -4.74 PE.

It is always nice to have a pitcher who misses bats, but Marmol has gotten too costly. Frequent readers of the blog know where I stand on this, bullpens should be built with relatively little money, with former starters and prospects. It simply doesn't make sense to give someone 7 million dollars to pitch 60 innings.