Hideaki Wakui Scouting Report

Seibu Lions 27 year old right-handed pitcher Hideaki Wakui has exercised his domestic free agent option, which allows him to sign with other interested NPB teams. The Lions are not said to be interested in bringing him back, meaning he will end up elsewhere. Wakui is an interesting pitcher because he is still in his prime, meaning he started very early in the Ichi-gun to already have his option (he made his debut in his age 19 season in 2005), which tells us, without even having to double check, that he was very highly regarded coming out of high school and quickly found a role on the Lions. While his debut season was a disaster (as far as hits and homers go, which made his ERA over 7), Wakui quickly settled in as a dependable and very good starter. From 2006-2011, Wakui threw over 170 innings each year, with an ERA under 4 each year (only even close in 2008, with an ERA of 3.9). However, the Lions moved him to the closer role in 2012, and he really wasn't that effective, with a 4.60 kwERA and 122 ERA -. In 2013, Wakui was in the rotation early on, but was moved back to the bullpen, pitching in some low leverage roles before righting the ship and pitching in higher leverage situations before the season was over. It was an improvement, with a 3.89 kwERA and 109 ERA -, but it wasn't the same Wakui as we saw in 2006-2011.

I won't spend time looking at his delivery because I already did that in my breakdown of the Lions' deliveries.While his head is straight at the time of release, it appears that there is some arm drag as his body is closer to the plate than a pitcher normally is by the time he lets go of the ball. Because of this, his posture isn't that great, which could cause him to jerk the ball. In his actual delivery, he uses a large leg kick and hesitation to get deception, and hides the ball with a very slight body twist after the pause.

Before trying to take a look at what exactly went wrong with Wakui, first let's take a look at what Wakui is currently. Below is a quick summation and look at his pitches. Each GIF, excluding the change/fork GIF, is from a pitch this season. All 2013 pitch data comes from Michael Westbay and ScoutDragon, while all data 2012 and before comes from NPB Tracker.

Wakui's slider averaged about 80.4, a full MPH tick below what it was in 2011-2012.

Like most pitchers, Wakui has two different fastballs, a 4-seam and a moving fastball. His 4-seam averaged 88.2 MPH in 2013 and he threw it about 46 % of the time.

Here is Wakui's low moving fastball, something that works like a sinker. This is used a lot less frequently, less than six percent of the time. This averages about one MPH lower, at 87.2 MPH in 2013.

His curve is a slow curve, averaging about 69.7 MPH, and thrown about 7.3 percent of the time

The data says that Wakui throws both a change and a fork, but for our purposes here, I combined them. He threw the changeup just over six percent of the time in 2013, and the forkball just over 5 percent of the time. The changeup is about three kilometers slower, at about 79 MPH.

Now that we have taken a look at what Wakui is at this point and what to expect from him, I think looking at why he regressed from dependable starter to mediocre reliever. Anecdotally, it appears that the slider has lost a lot of sharp downward movement, but things like movement from year to year can be really hard to quantify without Pitch F/X data, so I thought I would look at location. First, here is a breakdown of Wakui located all his pitches in 2011, his last full year as a starter, where he had a 99 ERA - and 4.32 kwERA (he had actually seen a drop off of strikeouts that year, signally the start of his regression). Each square is broken down by percent, and it is from the pitcher's perspective, so the far right would be the arm side part of the plate for Wakui:

If Wakui was going to throw a pitch outside of the zone, it was going to be low and glove side, like a slider. His most common location overall is glove side and middle, though if he was going to go high in the zone, it was more likely to be arm side. This isn't too unusual, as it is traditional fastball/slider locations for a right-hander. Compare this to his 2012 graph:

As a reliever, Wakui increased his fastball usage, which helps explain why there is an increase in middle to high arm side pitches. However, instead of throwing the changeup less as a reliever, he threw it more in 2012, subtracting his slider usage more, which helps explain the difference in low and glove side pitches (a disappearance almost). However, it is tough to see him increasing low arm side pitches. It appears that overall, he was working higher in the zone more across the board. How about in 2013?

Obviously there is a huge difference in pitches thrown low and glove side out of the zone, with a heavy increase. There are less pitches high and arm side as well, going for more glove side pitches in general. While he saw a slight bump in slider usage in 2013 compared to 2012, but it was still lower than it was in 2011.

Projecting KBO Pitchers Using Hyun-Jin Ryu's First MLB Season

Hyun-jin Ryu has finished his first regular season in the Majors with the Dodgers, with his last start of the year being on Tuesday night. He ends the season with a rWAR and fWAR over 3.0, pitching at an above MLB average rate, even when considering park factors.

Here is how Ryu's last two seasons breakdown:
2012 KBO: 70 ERA -, 66 FIP - (just based off league averages)
2013 MLB: 83 ERA -, 91 FIP - (FanGraphs)

This of course got me thinking of how current KBO pitchers might fare in the Majors if given a chance. Offense is up in the KBO this year, league average ERA is now 4.31, which is why I used the adjusted ERA and FIP for Ryu. A 3.02 ERA in 2013 would be considered as good as Ryu's 2012 season (a 2.84 FIP would be considered as good as Ryu's 2012 FIP). In the Majors, 130 FIP - is about replacement level. The most aggressive translation (penalizing the KBO pitchers the most) would be 25 FIP - points. So, if we used a direct translation, any pitcher with a 105 ERA/FIP - in the KBO could be considered MLB replacement level talented. This is about 4.53 ERA, or the top 20 KBO starters (11 Korean Natives). I only used starters in this post, because Ryu is a starter and to bring bullpen pitchers into the mix, we would have to adjust for reliever/starter splits. 

Out of the 9 non Korean Natives that project to be at least replacement level in the Majors, using career rWAR:
1 no MLB experience
5 under replacement
1 right at replacement
2 above replacement

It should be noted that I projected Ryu as a middle of the rotation/league average MLB starter. He clearly outperformed that projection in the first year, translating better than expected. So it is no surprise that using the way Ryu translated to the Majors, we would be projecting below replacement pitchers to perform at least replacement level. Again, translations are useful because they help us know who to look for, especially if we haven't seen all the players play enough to have the general scouting information that helps MLB teams make decisions on amateur or (in this case) foreign. But, they do not substitute that information.

So here is a list of the 11 Korean pitchers with their current ages whose ERA projects as better than replacement level in the Majors. I also put their 2013 FIPs for comparison, along with their fastball velocities, taken from Naver (except Lee Jae-Hak, who doesn't have a Naver scouting report, I just put his velocity from personal observation. Yu Heui-Kwan doesn't have a Naver scouting report, so he is a future article candidate. If a player has a link attached to their name, I have written about them in the past).

Lee Jae-Hak, 22 years old, 3.49 FIP, 85-89 MPH

Yoon Sung-Hwan, 31 years old, 3.66 FIP, 83-91 MPH

Yu Heui-Kwan, 27 years old, 3.61 FIP

Woo Kyu-Min, 28 years old, 2.96 FIP, 84-89 MPH

No Kyeong-Eun, 29 years old, 3.84 FIP, 86-94 MPH

Yoon Hi-Sang, 28 years old, 4.00 FIP, 84-92 MPH

Song Seung-Jun, 33 years old, 3.82 FIP, 81-92 MPH

Jang Won-Sam, 30 years old, 4.30 FIP, 85-91 MPH

Kang Yoon-Koo, 23 years old, 3.07 FIP, 86-94 MPH

Kim Kwang-Hyun, 25 years old, 4.32 FIP, 83-93 MPH

Bae Young-Soo, 32 years old, 3.42 FIP, 86-92 MPH

Based on the simple Ryu translation, 75 ERA/FIP- in the KBO could be considered MLB average or 3rd starter type. This would be a 3.23 ERA or better. Lee is the only Korean native that has an ERA good enough this year, while Woo and Kang are the Korean natives with FIPs good enough to project as above average in the MLB. Kang also seems to have the best fastball of the group (or is tied with No), though none have as good of a fastball as Ryu (he was listed at 87-95 MPH by Naver).

Charlie Shirek: 3.40 FIP

Chris Seddon: 3.52 FIP

Radhames Liz: 3.35 FIP

Kim Kwang-Hyun Scouting Report

Kim Kwang-hyun is a left-handed Korea Baseball Organization pitcher who turned 25 last month. Once considered one of the top prospects in the KBO, the SK Wyverns pitcher, listed at 6-1 and 183 pounds, has a 1.3 ERA RAA and 5.4 FIP RAA on the season. Prorated over a full season (133 games), this is about a 9.2 FIP RAA, nearly a win over an average KBO pitcher, not exactly dominant, but pretty good.

His best year was in 2010 when he had a FIP WAA of about .6 in over 190 innings (by ERA his 2008-2010 stretch was more impressive, worth about 70 runs above average over those three seasons while current Dodgers' left-hander Ryu Hyun-Jin was worth about 55 runs above average over the period). The next two years he struggled, pitching at a well below average rate and not getting close to a hundred innings either season. He actually suffered a stroke, before having some arm problems. He has already pitched more innings in 2013 than he did in either 2011 or 2012. 

Before looking at his pitches, it may be helpful to look at his delivery from his last start through screenshots.

Here is the giant leg kick Kim uses to begin his delivery:

His glove gets tucked behind his thigh to give him some deception. But it also is an action that could be difficult to repeat, especially if he had any kind of hip or leg injury.

After the leg kick, Kim's leg still moves out as he comes forward and lowers his body angle, going from the straight up set to bending his knee as he comes forward, leading with his glove:

Here is what his release point looks like from behind, a relatively low one, without great posture, with the head somewhat tilted:

Here is what his stride looks like from the side, as he tucks his glove in and stretches pretty far:

Kim's arm angle from the side:

That is mostly an over the top motion that doesn't play that high thanks to a lowered release point. This may hurt his ability to get horizontal movement on the ball, but it also shouldn't be easy for right-handers to see.

When I saw him, he often overthrew, causing an inconsistent landing point, and with it, inconsistent command. I assumed that the Naver scouting report velocities were out of date, so I just used it to help with classifications, but took the broadcast velocities from his last start.

4-seam fastball: 87-92 MPH, Kim can bury it and it has some movement. He would go into righties with it as well, not throwing just away with it. It got down to 83-86 MPH as the game wore on into the middle innings. He lost his velocity very quickly, but at least so far this year, he has been better as the game went along. Kim did get back up to 87-88 MPH with an occasional 89-91 MPH in the 6th. It seemed that he just turned it down for a little while and ramped it back up. His changeup also moved like his fastballs did, so it was easy to confuse the two at times, especially when he lost velocity.

2-seam fastball/sinker: 86-89 MPH that still was inside to righties, not like a usual 2-seamer that stays arm side. He would occasionally throw it away from lefties. The movement showed the difference between his 4-seamer and this pitch.

Slider: 80-84 MPH, not much sweeping action, thought it has horizontal movement. It is not the baby slider you see a lot in the Far East, and not really a natural slider either. To fellow lefties, he did get it down occasionally. Clearly not a plus pitch, and he would try to throw it in to righties as well.

Fork: 74-81 MPH, more of a change, with not a lot of movement. It honestly moved a lot like the slider, but was just thrown a little slower. The pitches are somewhat hard to distinguish except by velocity, and at times, platoon.

Curve: 66-70 MPH didn't always command it, no real feel for it. He rarely used it, and there is no reason for him to use it more.

Overall, he was a low ball pitcher in the full outing I watched, and threw more glove side than arm side in the game I saw. Despite this approach and lack of a consistent fork/change, he has actually been a reverse split pitcher so far in 2013, at least by batting average. His K/BB and homers (3 to righties one to lefties) probably suggests this isn't real.

To me, Kim didn't show a plus pitch except when he was able to get the fastball up to 92 MPH with movement. As a starter, it is pretty clear that he can't do that consistently. In the KBO, he will obviously stay as a starter, and should, if he is healthy, keep throwing at about an average to slightly above average rate. However, for him to have a future in the Majors, he would have to convert to a reliever (and prove that he is healthy long term considering his long health history). He may not want to, so my bet is that he will just stay in Korea and give the Wyverns a nice domestic option in the rotation.

Why Pitchers Struggle in the First Inning

It is no secret that starting pitchers struggle in the first inning compared to the later innings of the ballgame. So far in 2013, starting pitchers have a 4.31 ERA in the first inning, with an opposing OPS of .742. In the second inning, the OPS drops to .720, with an ERA of 3.74. Part of this probably has something to do with quality of hitter, though so far this year spots 4-6 in the order have an OPS of .752, while 1-3 in the order has an OPS of .750.

So I looked at the all pitches thrown in the 1st inning of 2013, along with all the pitches thrown in the 2nd inning of 2013. I took out all the unknown pitch types. I also ignored things like pitchouts, intentional walks, and the FA tag (though these last three things weren't removed until after, so they still played in the percentages). I sorted the pitches by MLBAM pitch type and looked at their average locations and velocities, comparing all the pitches thrown in the two innings to see if there was a discernible difference.

Here is the first inning graph, showing where each individual pitch was located on average, regardless of platoon and handedness:

By contrast, the second inning:

The average vertical release point is the same in total from inning one to inning two, so there doesn't appear to be anything obvious going on with pitchers' deliveries, or at least how they end.

From the first inning to the second inning, there is a drop in four seam fastball usage of nearly four percent, and there is an increase in slider usage of two percent. Moving fastball usage drops about a percent, while sinker usage stays about the same and cutter usage is the same. Changeups see an increased usage of about a percent, while curveballs saw an increase of over a percent.

As far as average location difference goes, the 4-seam fastball is located better in the 2nd inning, as it is closer to the center of the strike zone slightly (meaning it is thrown to both sides of the plate more on average), and slightly higher. It isn't a dramatic change, but with the large sample size, any small change is pretty significant. The cutter is located a little lower on average, while the slider is about the same, and the curve is actually thrown a little higher on average. The moving fastball is similar to the 4-seamer, in that it is located closer to the center of the plate on average and a little higher.

Dickey, the only one to throw knuckleballs in the first two innings of a ballgame this season, improved from the first to the second just like league average. The knuckle is actually a tick softer in the 2nd inning, and he locates it more arm side on average (though it is slightly higher).

Hector Santiago is the only one that throws a screwball, and he locates it, on average in the first two innings, outside of the strike zone, and that is why it doesn't show up in the graphs. He is actually a lot better than in the first inning than the second inning. In the second inning, his screwball is actually lower on average and closer to the strike zone.

To me, it seems that the biggest difference is fastball usage and fastball location. The fastball is the pitch most pitchers throw the most, but it usually isn't as effective as off-speed pitches. For example, curveballs this year have a 10.8 % swinging strike rate, and changeups have a 14.8 % swinging strike rate, both of these rates much higher than fastballs, so it would make sense that pitchers would have more success by throwing the fastball a little less and more breaking balls if they can locate them (of course, fastball velocity is still very important, and there is a point of no return, but there is no correlation between fastball usage and overall success, as qualified pitchers have a -.097 between fastball percentage and FIP -).

How Important is it for Pitchers to Add and Subtract on their Fastballs?

It is often said, or at least i hear it especially on television broadcasts, that a pitcher "adds and subtracts" from his fastball. That is, the pitcher will throw his fastball intentionally at different speeds. This is said to be a good thing, which makes some sense. One could think of situations where a hitter knows that a pitcher's fastball is usually 92 MPH, and instead of going to a different pitch, the pitcher throws an 89 MPH fastball. Or, Justin Verlander is often credited for being able to throw 100 MPH, but sitting at a lower velocity and maxing out when he needs to (at the end of his outing, or with runners on base, etc.). I have really had no idea how to treat this aspect of pitching other than just using averages, so I wanted to see if I could test whether or not "adding and subtracting" to the fastball was in fact a good thing. Perhaps, one could imagine, consistency is good, as it shows that a pitcher can maintain his velocity.

Since pitchers' average fastball velocities can fluctuate from year to year (from start to start as well, but not as much) it probably isn't wise to look at multiple seasons, so I will look at just 2013 so far for this article. This gives us small sample size problems for the season when trying to grade performance, so we will look at the swinging strike percentage of the fastball, along with the FIP - of the season.

In order to measure how much a pitcher "adds and subtracts" from their fastball, I'll use the standard deviation of all 4-seam fastballs (FF designation), which should tell us the difference on average for each fastball, which I think should give us an idea of who "adds and subtracts" the most. Of course, we are relying on MLBAM tags, so there may be some problems, as it seems that slower than usual fastballs by pitchers are usually called changeups. I don't know of a way to sidestep this problem. I looked at pitchers with a minimum of 1000 pitches thrown (regardless of classification) and at least 30% of pitches being the 4-seamer to weed out relievers and give us a look at starters with a decent sample size who use the 4-seam fastball with some regularity.

According to MLBAM, Bartolo Colon wins the award of being able to add and subtract to his fastball. Jason Hammel adds and subtracts from his fastball the least. The average standard deviation is 1.35 for the selected pitchers.

The pitchers with an average ST or higher had a whiff percentage of 6.04, the ones with a below average ST had a 5.92 whiff percentage, not a real difference. The below average ST pitchers had a 99.36 FIP - on average, with the average to above average having a FIP - of 96.75, again slightly better, but not a big difference. The top 10 do a little better when it comes to FIP -, but do worse when it comes to swinging strikes. The ten worst ST pitchers have a pretty significantly worse FIP -, with a below average whiff percentage, but one that is still better than the top 10 ST pitchers.

I think what helps show that adding and subtracting doesn't seem to be a determiner of success either way is that there are three pitchers with whiff percentages on their fastball over 10% (Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey, and Julio Teheran) and one of them have an above average ST, one below, and one about average. The thing they do have in common though is velocity, being in the elite part of starters.

Just plain velocity is a much better indicator of fastball success (though the high whiff percentages of Hisashi Iwakuma and Jose Quintana are certainly interesting) than adding and subtracting velocity, which doesn't seem to help much, but doesn't really hurt either.

Josh Collmenter: Dominant Reliever, Mediocre Starter

Since coming up to the big leagues in 2011, Josh Collmenter has been used in a variety of roles by the Diamondbacks. The right-hander known for his extreme over the top delivery has been much better as a reliever than a starter. Rather than the normal (2013 so far) split of 4.06 kwERA and 2.85 HR % as a starter and 3.84 kwERA and 2.48 HR % as a reliever (.22 kwERA and .37% difference), Collmenter has a career 3.97 kwERA and 3.3 HR % as a starter, and 3.13 kwERA and 1.48 HR % as a reliever (.84 kwERA and 1.82 HR % difference).

As a starter, Collmenter's average release point is  -.48 horizontal, 7.18 vertical and here is what his Spin and Speed Chart looks like:

He sure seems easy to classify, but the MLBAM tags have problems with the fastball and changeup differentiation so I classified his pitches myself using the chart as a guide:

average pitch 84.25 MPH
Fastball: 87.97 MPH
Change: 77.50 MPH
Spin Curve: 70.35MPH
Non-Spin Curve: 70.49 MPH

Collmenter's big platoon splits (4.36 kwERA and 2.96 HR % against lefties, 3.17 kwERA and 2.79 HR % against righties) seem weird since he throws straight over the top and throws a lot of changeups. 

Here are his average locations as a starter, broken down by pitch:

 

He doesn't work on the arm side part of the plate like most right-handed pitchers do, instead working right down the middle of the plate. The fastball is thrown in the high part of the plate, and with that velocity, it is easy to see how that would lend to some power. The high spin curve is thrown lower than the regular curve on average, and his average pitch overall is thrown right down the middle.

As a reliever, Collmenter's average release point is -.36 horizontally, and 7.23 vertically, so a little bit higher and closer to the center (though nothing real drastic). Here is what his pitches look like as a reliever:

It seems that the difference in  spin between the fastball and changeup lessens in the bullpen. That may mean nothing, or it may mean that they are tougher to distinguish for a hitter trying to guess. Here is the breakdown of his pitches:

Average Pitch: 85.1 MPH
Fastball: 88.17 MPH
Change: 77.98 MPH
Spin Curve: 71 MPH
Non-Spin Curve: 71.32 MPH

So on all pitch types, Collmenter actually has gained less velocity on average than most pitchers who move from the rotation to the bullpen (or vice versa). I think velocity doesn't have much to do with his splits from the bullpen to the rotation, as he is well below average as a starter and well below average as a bullpen pitcher. So how about location differences?:

The spin curve is thrown out of the strike zone (and is a little more rare), while the regular curve is actually thrown much higher than as a starter. His fastball is at about the same height, but actually a little glove side. Other than the change, which is a little more arm side, his pitches go a little more glove side on average.

There is always the chance that as a starter he is just a victim of his home ballpark or the home run rate is just due to regress. The locations are different, especially with the fastball versus the changeup as a reliever, and this may give him a little more deception and help him avoid power more. But, other than that, it is a little hard to see the difference in Collmenter as a reliever and as a starter, so I wonder if a lot of the difference in numbers is small sample statistical noise.

Carlos Rodon and Luke Weaver Pitch Data

On May 11th, two good college sophomore pitchers pitched against each other, left-handed Carlos Rodon for NC State and right-handed Luke Weaver for Florida State. The two are draft prospects to watch for 2014, with Rodon being a significantly higher rated prospect than Weaver in preseason rankings. The game had a broadcast gun, so I logged the velocities of each of the starting pitchers.

Carlos Rodon's Velocity, in order of pitch 1 to 133:

Fastball: 88-97 MPH, 92.52 MPH average. The closest left-handed comparison according to MLBAM tags in the Pitch F/X era seems to be Brett Anderson, who has been an ace at times when healthy.

It seemed like Rodon threw a slider and a change, though it was often hard to tell which was which. He also didn't throw a traditional curve, just like we saw with Mark Appel, which seems very odd to me. To avoid classification problems, I just combined the two pitches, and we can compare it to sliders and changes.

79-88 MPH, 83.66 MPH. His closest comparison as a left-handed change is Madison Bumgarner, and the closest comparison as a slider is Mike Minor (slower than Bumgarner's). It is slightly harder than Minor's change, but it is really close (Minor's fastball is over 2 MPH slower than the one Rodon showed). Brett Anderson's slider is softer than Rodon's off-speed pitches in total, but his change is slightly higher.

Luke Weaver for Florida State was an 19th round pick out of high school. Here is his velocity chart from the game:

Fastball: 87-95 MPH, with a 91.83 MPH average. Out of qualified starters in the Majors in the Pitch F/X era, Weaver's closest fastball comparison is Matt Cain or Kyle Davies, both pitchers who had some success in the Majors, though obviously to differing degrees. Both could also max out over 95 MPH (though Davies hasn't pitched in the Majors in a couple years, and Cain hasn't done it in a couple of years). Weaver's fastball had some two seam type movement, that he especially used to come back over the plate on the away from righties part of the plate.

He seemed to feature what looked like a soft slider/hard curve along with a changeup that didn't move very traditionally. Combined, those pitches averaged 79.16 MPH. Separating them, because of the weird movement, was a little difficult, but because the breaking ball was significantly slower than the change on average, I am calling it a curve. I have him with:

77.64 MPH curveball, closest comparison to Arrieta, Blackburn, Buchholz, and Hammel, faster than Davies and Cain

82.33 MPH change, closest comparison to Scott Baker and Roy Oswalt, slower than Davies and Cain.

Rodon is obviously the better prospect, with both a handedness advantage, a size advantage, and a better fastball. However, Weaver has a big league fastball as well, and a more traditional curveball, and has been drafted before, so he is a MLB draft prospect for the 2014 season as well.

Tony Cingrani, The One Pitch Starter?

We are introduced to players in different ways. It may or may not be the first time we see them, but it is the first time we notice them. The time I was introduced to Tony Cingrani of the Cincinnati Reds was on the 27th of June in 2012 when he was pitching in AA against the Seattle Mariners affiliate. He struck out 15 batters, facing 25 in 8 innings. He did this with what was, according to the MiLB.TV broadcast, a 88-91 MPH fastball. Since then, Cingrani has broken into the big leagues and has had some MLB success in 33 innings. Since it is obviously a small sample size and there seemed to be tension or even a contradiction between his stuff and minor league numbers, I wanted to look at his MLB Pitch F/X data so far for his career and see if we can make sense of what Cingrani is and what he will be in the Majors.

First, let's take a look at what he is throwing:

This suggests a fastball, a changeup, a curve (both a heavy spin and a non-spin one), and maybe a handful of sliders. Despite the reports of his minor league velocity above, Cingrani's fastball has the potential to flash plus, as he has thrown 35 fastballs over 95 MPH (he has thrown 625 Pitch F/X pitches). He isn't a soft tosser, and the speed and spin chart shows that he throws a lot of fastballs.

Cingrani's average release point is 5.88 vertically and 2.65 horizontally, which is closest to Jeff Francis and Jon Lester, and is one of the farthest out left-handed starters in the Pitch F/X period. Or in graph form, this is what Cingrani's release point looks like:

Lester doesn't have much platoon splits for his career, but Francis has always had large ones. Of course, there is a big difference in fastballs between Francis and Lester. Francis is a soft tosser, while Lester has a plus fastball. Cingrani seems to fit closer to Lester, at least showing off a good fastball (not saying Cingrani is Jon Lester obviously, just that his fastball is much closer to Lester's than Francis'). However, let's see if Cingrani's strike zone against righties reveals any tendencies.

It doesn't really. He throws more pitches away, which makes some sense no matter what the pitcher or platoon, but it isn't a heavy distinction, and there doesn't seem to be any notable tendencies up or down. The heavy usage of fastballs by Cingrani is what is really interesting to me.

It is tough to tell his slowest fastballs from his harder changeups, which isn't an uncommon problem, but using the rough cutoff the MLBAM tags take, about 88 MPH (that is, what is slower is a changeup and what is harder is a fastball), we get 103 non-fastball pitches. Out of those pitches, he has 10 swinging strikes, and 14 balls put in play (including home runs). It seems that the softer the pitch, the curve, and maybe a slider, have been more effective, meaning that his change hasn't been very effective. Compare this to his 58 whiffs with his fastball in the 522 pitches he has thrown. This means he has a higher whiff percentage on his fastball than he does his off-speed and breaking pitches. This is pretty unusual. In the Pitch F/X era, the best whiff fastball for starting pitchers has a 32.12 whiff/swing percentage (13.4 whiff percentage), while the best whiff curve has a 49.62 whiff/swing percentage (20.96 whiff percentage) and the best whiff change has a 54.07 whiff/swing percentage (28.96 whiff percentage, this data according to Baseball Prospectus' Pitch F/X leaderboards). So Cingrani's successful fastball but unsuccessful off-speed pitches is a little bizarre. But is it a problem? There are two ways to approach this. To have success in the big leagues, it is common knowledge that you must "establish your fastball" and when you have a plus fastball like Cingrani, you have a chance to have real success in the Majors. However, to be a good starter and to get hitters out the third time through the order, you usually have to show MLB hitters something else. Let's look at how Cingrani is using and locating those pitches so far:

He is mostly doing a good job of keeping the ball low, but he doesn't really get in on righties or get it very far away from lefties. He also seems to be having some kind of problem finishing his delivery with these pitches, leaving a lot of them up and arm side.

Since he seems to be a strikeout pitcher (with a very high strikeout total throughout the minors and in the Majors in his small sample size), I wanted to see his breakdown of pitches with two strikes, how he tries to finish hitters. Using his spin and speed chart with two strikes:

We see that he basically goes to just his fastball with two strikes. He doesn't throw hardly any changeups, and not a significant amount of curves. He goes to his best pitch, which is his fastball. But enough about selection, let's look at location:

Here, we see he does a better job of throwing the ball towards the right-handed batters box, and (along with the pitches that appear to be armside misses) he seems to throw more intention high pitches, which isn't surprising since he throws mainly fastballs. Again, this is very unusual when looking at elite strikeout pitchers, as Justin Verlander's fastball usage drops 12%, Yu Darvish's 6%, and Matt Harvey 6% as well. We simply do not see starting pitchers start throwing even more fastballs with 2 strikes.

The heavy fastball usage makes questions about whether he can stick as a successful starting pitcher legitimate, and may prompt a move to the bullpen, where one could imagine he would become very successful. With 2 strikes, some elite strikeout relievers don't go away from their fastballs, as Papelbon throws it just 1% less, while Fernando Rodney throws it 9% more, (David Robertson throws it 9% less, and Tom Wilhelmsen 10 % less).

Behind Jake Arrieta's Meltdown

Jake Arrieta had a really strange outing on Sunday, which is probably a fitting microcosm of a really strange pitcher, at least when it comes to results versus stuff. Arrieta started against the Dodgers and looked absolutely filthy, throwing a plus plus fastball right by hitters, and mixing in a very hard slider to keep them off balance. Even mainstream reporters were taken aback by his nasty stuff and how well he was pitching. Then, before the 4th inning, I actually turned from the game to watch the Mariners, and saw later in the day on highlight shows that, despite having a big lead, the wheels absolutely came off for Arrieta and he ended up blowing the lead, losing the game, and getting sent back to AAA at age 27. In this post, I wanted to breakdown his outing and see if I could find anything to help us unlock the strange puzzle that is Arrieta.

The first two innings for Arrieta were completely dominant, he got 2 strikeouts, 2 groundouts, an infield fly-out and a fly-out to center.

Average velocity on all pitches: 91.51 MPH

Fastball/Sinker Velocity: 95.76 MPH

Strike zone:

As you can see, he is throwing mainly glove side here, away from righties, in to lefties.

Release Point Consistency: Standard Deviation was .182 horizontally and .084 vertically

Release Point Averages: 6.54 vertically -2.3 horizontally 

The 3rd inning was very shaky, as he walked 3 batters, gave up a run, and struck out two swinging.

Average velocity: 92.78 MPH

Fastball/Sinker Velocity: 95.06 MPH

Strike zone:

 Here, he misses more arm-side, suggesting that he is perhaps not finishing his delivery as well. He also had a lot more pitches that were thrown up high as well.

Standard Deviation was .164 horizontally and .085 vertically

Release Point Averages: 6.43 vertically -2.36 horizontally

In the 4th, it looked like he had put it back together, with 2 strikeouts, and a groundout.

Average velocity: 90.9 MPH

Fastball/Sinker velocity: 94.21

Strike zone:

Here, he is back to working glove side, this time basically exclusively. He also got the ball down more.

Standard deviation was .142 horizontally and .085 vertically
6.43 vertically -2.29 horizontally 

In the 5th, the wheels came off. He walked a batter, plunked a batter, walked another one, then gave up a single. His day was done, with no outs recorded in the inning.

Average velocity: 89.75 MPH

Fastball/Sinker velocity: 93.78 MPH

His strike zone:

He actually continued to work more glove side, but there is a few more pitches left up.

Standard deviation was .14 horizontally and .071 vertically.

6.35 vertically and -2.46 horizontally.

So he wasn't more inconsistent with his delivery, he just dropped down as he struggled (or struggled because he dropped down). I wanted to see if this was visible by screenshots. The one on the left is not from the Dodgers game, but represents a 6.51 vertical release and -2.35 horizontal release, basically what he was doing in the first two innings (I used that instead of one from the Dodgers game because he was wearing 42 for Jackie Robinson day in this one, which helps show the difference), while the one on the right is his last pitch against the Dodgers:

Strangely, his posture is actually a little better on the right, but it clearly a more over the top delivery than his Dodgers delivery, which is why he had a higher horizontal number and lower vertical number. 

His velocity also regressed badly as the game went along, as you see. This raises a chicken or the egg question. Was his velocity regressing because his arm angle came further out? Or vise versa?

It also causes one to speculate. Is he tired? Is he hurt? Why did he "wear down" so quickly? Is his delivery simply too hard to repeat? It doesn't appear to be particularly violent, but is it really just putting too much strain on him? Is he yet another Orioles starting pitcher destined for relief? If he keeps breaking down in games like he did on Sunday, the Orioles may ask him if he can just throw 100 MPH bullets out of the pen (a bullpen that doesn't have a lot of room in it).

What is Most Predictive of a Good Start?

In this post, I will look at all the MLB starts from April 14th and April 18th and test what is most predictive of a successful start. We have already seen that fastball velocity is a great predictor of a good start, so in this post we will look at overall pitch velocity, release points and release point consistency. Here is the spreadsheet containing all of the starts (it doesn't have every starting pitcher, especially because of some rainouts, but the 5 day net gives us a look at a lot of starting pitchers):

Rather than looking at numbers, here we will look at some scatterplots to check the correlation of each number. I also put lines in each graph that represent the expected correlation, if it was perfect.

Here is the scatterplot of pitch velocity and FIP

Obviously overall pitch velocity doesn't only take in account the velocity of each individual pitch, it also takes into account pitch selection. A high overall pitch velocity says that not only do they throw hard, they threw their hard stuff a lot. Here, we don't see a lot of correlation because there were a lot of starters that threw 85-90 and didnt have good starts. The 80-85 MPH guys didn't have the best starts, but they were also less likely to have horrible starts.

In the next graphs, FIP serves as the horizontal axis. Here is the horizontal consistency (remember, the higher number means least consistent) versus FIP

Not much correlation here. There isn't a whole lot of variation overall (an obvious example being Bronson Arroyo who intentionally changes his arm angle throughout the game), and no real reason for why some of them were horrible starts and some of them were good.


What about just average horizontal release point (the higher the number means the further out)? Here, I assumed that there was no real value difference between lefties and righties, so I changed the negatives (righties) to positives.

Again, not a ton of correlation here, or at least not expected correlation. 1 to 2 feet guys could be anywhere, while the very far out guys seemed to be the best. So perhaps reverse correlation.

Does vertical consistency matter more than horizontal consistency?:

Not really. Again, there wasn't much variation (I took out Arroyo here to get a better look).

What abut just vertical release point:

This is actually probable the best correlative set, and it isn't great either.

Certainly one could have used a different stat than FIP, but I think it tells us a little more about a start than SIERA or xFIP and I would have had to manually input all the kwERAs, which would have taken longer. Overall, I expected the consistency numbers to have a much better correlation than they did.

In conclusion, it doesn't really seem we can use any of these numbers to judge an individual start, at least from one pitcher to another. In future posts, I plan to look at some individual pitchers from start to start to see if these numbers have any correlation for individual pitchers.

Sortable Starting Pitcher Release Points

In Pitch F/X posts on pitchers, I often try to find comparisons when it comes to release points (especially when looking at prospects' first Pitch F/X game) to give us some bearing on how they are releasing the ball. The problem is, I had to do most of the work on feel and manually as, as far as I know (and nobody I asked knew of one) there is no place where you can sort by release point.

In this post, I am fixing that, sort of. I used Baseball Prospectus' Pitch F/X leaderboards that link to Brooks Baseball and inputted the fastball release points for all 450 pitchers that have thrown at least 500 pitches as a starter in the Pitch F/X era. I used the 4-seam fastball release point, unless the pitcher didn't throw one, and then I used sinker or cutter or whichever came first. Of course, I used career Pitch F/X numbers, and as pitchers do change at times, this data isn't always going to be accurate. If a pitcher lowers his release point, the career number is just going to be an average of the two distinct points, not an actual place the pitcher actually released the ball. Without manually checking per season (or just checking the ones I know have changed off hand), there wasn't a real way to fix this bug. It doesn't affect too many pitchers, but just be aware of it (and be aware that some pitchers have different release points for different pitches, especially curveballs).

The data is in the spreadsheet below, but I put it in graph form as well to give you a more visual look.
To see the interactive chart (where you should be able to hover over each bubble and get the name and data), click the chart 1 button below.


Just the picture version of the chart if you want to save that (or the link if you want to download it):



I'm sure I will get around to do relievers soon (if there is a way I can make this look better, let me know what you think).

Michael Hager Scouting Report

Michael Hager is a large Righty (6-5 230!) that pitches for Pacific College. As a sophomore, he is not eligible for the MLB Draft until 2014. Hager wasn't drafted out of high school, but was a real control specialist in 2012 as a freshman, not walking hardly anyone but not really striking anyone out either. He is already "filled out" so fastball velocity may not get much harder, which as you will see, is a little disappointing.
He has a pretty standard delivery, the leg gets pretty high, but I doubt he is really going to get deception. Here is some video of his delivery:

I saw him pitch against TCU, which certainly is not as good as the team they had last year, but is still a decent big time baseball program. Here is his pitch data:

It was really hard to differentiate fastballs and the harder off-speed based on velocity late in the game as his fastball regressed so badly. If you just sort the velocity by inning, and don't differentiate pitches, his velocity breaks down like this:

1: 86.8
2: 84.47
3: 84
4: 80.83
5: 81.71
6: 81.76
7: 82.54

As you can see, he dropped each inning for the first 4 innings and his best velocity inning was the first. He then pumped his velocity up a little bit in the 7th before he exited. Of course, this has the bias of penalizing him for throwing more breaking balls late in the game, so let's count the number of pitches under 80 MPH for each inning.

1: 3
2: 2
3: 2
4: 5
5: 5
6: 5
7: 3

This helps explain it somewhat, but let's look at max velocity for each inning:

1: 91
2: 87
3: 87
4: 87
5: 87
6: 87
7: 87

So in the first inning, he was throwing up to MLB average velocity, but didn't throw a pitch over 87 for the rest of the game. Some of the fastballs sank, so I bet if you asked him, he throws a sinker as well, but it is easier to just classify everything as just fastballs, and helps us limit some mistakes.

A lot of the slower ones in the mid 70s broke like a change, but that is a pretty slow change. He spiked a few of them, and they broke more vertically than horizontally (although at least one had good horizontal movement). The harder breaking ball in the low 80s was probably the change

His average pitch thrown was 83.53 MPH, which is closest to Shawn Chacon when looking at right-handed MLB starters in the Pitch F/X era. Chacon was below replacement level in 2007 and 2008 (his only two Pitch F/X seasons). This fits into the bottom third of MLBers.

At the risk of misclassifications, here is how I see his pitch breakdown and their comparisons:

69 fastballs (63.8 %, Phil Hughes) 85-91 MPH range, 86.9 MPH average (2007-2008 Mike Mussina)

12 changeups (11.1 %, Philip Humber) 82-84 MPH range, 83.5 MPH average (Jason Berken)
25 curves (23.1 %, Brett Myers, Philip Humber is actually close) 73-77 MPH range, 74.24 MPH average (Jeremy Guthrie)
Here were his results in 108 pitches:
43 Balls
3 Bunts
3 Fly-ball Outs, 4 Fly-ball hits
16 fouls (2 for outs)
10 GBs (7 for outs)
2 HBP
19 called strikes
8 whiffs
Obviously the whiff percentage is low (7.4 %), but isn't surprising considering what we saw last year. For a control guy, his strike percentage was pretty low (58.33 %). Both HBP came against lefties on soft breaking balls, suggesting he didn't have command of that pitch. This shows something Jason Parks pointed on in an interview, even guys that we consider to have good control in college, don't actually have good control when compared to MLB players.
Hager did get grounders with 10 of his 17 non-bunt batted balls staying on the ground (and 30% of them going through, about what you would expect).
How about results based on splits?:
Lefties:
22 Balls
2 Bunts
1 Fly-ball Out, 1 fly-ball hit
8 fouls
3 GB (all outs)
2 HBP
8 called strikes
4 whiffs
Righties:
21 Balls
1 bunt
8 fouls (2 foul outs)
3 GB hits, 4 GB outs
3 fly-ball hits,2 fly-ball outs
11 called strikes
4 whiffs
He threw strikes to lefties 56.9 % of the time, and he threw strikes to righties 63.2 % of the time, a much more acceptable rate. He was a groundball pitcher to both, and had a slightly better whiff percentage against lefties (the same amount of whiffs in 6 less pitches). Amazingly, TCU bunted twice in play with lefties, more than they did with righties.
When you look at pitch selection, his average pitch was 83.36 MPH against lefties, and 83.68 MPH against righties, not much of a difference, but predictably a little softer against lefties. He threw 13 of the below 80 MPH pitches against righties, and 12 against lefties, suggesting platoon advantage or not doesn't dictate his usage of his slowest pitch. If you look at the 82-84 MPH pitch (which is what looked like his change), he threw 9 against lefties and 3 against righties. This pitch is what was dictated by platoon advantage (like a change normally is).
Here is how he pitched to lefties (as always, no strike/no strike bias, catcher point of view): 

9	5	4
5	2	1
8	12	5

Here is how he pitched to righties:

4	5	3
3	5	2
9	20	6

Surprisingly (to me anyway), he pitched low more to righties and high more to lefties. This could be because he was throwing more sinkers to righties and wasn't exactly executing his changeup location anyway. I think he did a solid job of keeping it out of the middle of the plate, deciding to work high or low. With his velocity/stuff, he needs to keep the ball low.

Overall when looking at Hager, before even looking at the advanced data, we see a guy who is big but doesn't offer much projection, doesn't miss bats, doesn't throw very hard, and is right-handed. Unfortunately, and he isn't eligible for the draft this year anyway, that isn't much of a prospect. If he throws some more strikes than what I saw him throw, and he keeps not walking many hitters like he did in 2012, than he is draftable, but not very high.

Scouting Reports on Adam Choplick and Mikey Ramirez

It is that time of the year, as baseball is now on television. The inaugural college baseball game on TV for my plan was Oklahoma and Arkansas Pine Bluff. I will (at least I should) see Oklahoma in person late in the season, but here are scouting reports on the two starters:

Adam Choplick is a gigantic freshman lefty that stands at 6 feet 8 inches. His fastball was at 89-92 MPH with a change at 77-80 MPH. He gets, a lot of glove side tail with a heavy usage of the change against right-handed batters. The break and command of it was inconsistent, but he threw some really impressive ones and they drop and tilt downward very well. When he missed, he usually missed arm side, which usually means he wasn't "finishing his delivery", which is especially for a problem for young and very tall pitchers. Overall, I thought his command was pretty good for his age and size. He has a solid to average fastball now from the left-side, with the potential to add even more velocity along with a changeup that should add a little velocity and has good movement. I liked how he was able to use an off-speed pitch, especially since it was the changeup, so often, and at the same time, have a legit fastball. Many times it seems that young pitchers either use almost all fastballs, or are very off-speed heavy because he doesn't have a good fastball (a good example of that is below). Choplick is not either of these.

Obviously he is far away from even being drafted (he was redshirted, so he should be eligible in 2014), but I like Choplick.The one thing you can complain about is a lack of a third pitch, as he didn't really show one in the game. He also is coming off what I understand was his 2nd Tommy John surgery. This is obviously concerning at such a young age. With that said, he showed decent control for his age, especially for his first start as a college pitcher, and had a good outing, albeit against inferior competition (the team is in a smaller conference and went 8-31 in 2012). To me, he is an interesting name to follow, as we will want to see if he can stay healthy, and also gain a 3rd pitch and add some velocity.

Mikey Ramirez is a 5-10 junior right-handed pitcher for Arkansas Pine-Bluff. He throws 84-86 MPH with some arm side tail along with a 73-77 MPH change that floats armside and also can get some impressive downward tilt. However, he seemed to have no idea where the pitch was going. It also was so slow at times that even when it was out of the strike zone and low it was still occasionally hit hard. Ramirez also has a curve that looks 12-6 in break that he can bury low, but it was not a frequent pitch.

His delivery with runners on base reminds me of Edgar Gonzalez for some reason. He sort of rocks, and has a lot of body movement and somewhat inconsistent landing point. Obviously, his command reflected this, and he was all over the place at times.

The lack of fastball along with the lack of height and projection basically makes him a non prospect when it comes to the draft and the Majors.

Collection of Minor League Velocity

Similar to what I have been doing with running times for position players, I wanted to start a velocity collection for pitchers in the minor leagues. I decided to use no players that have pitched in the Majors (as obviously you could just load their brooks baseball or FanGraphs page to get a more scientific view). This will not be scientific, but should be a useful and sortable list of minor league pitchers' velocity.

I wasn't sure whether or not I should include pitchers that have pitch f/x data due to spring training or AFL, but I decided to include them. I was sort of loose on RP/SP designations, but as a general rule I looked at how they have been used in the past couple of years more than their career (I mostly ignored projections of whether or not a pitcher will stick as a starter).

For pitchers that I hadn't written scouting reports myself on, I gathered data from a lot of different places, but Pirates Prospects, Orioles Nation, Red Sox Prospects, Perfect Game, and Baseball Prospect Nation were probably the biggest places. I figured that if there were 6 U.S. affiliates for each club, and if we assume every team uses 8 man bullpens (13 pitchers), then there are about 2340 minor league pitchers. Of course, we are taking out the ones that have pitched in the Majors at all, but we are probably still talking about 2000 different pitchers. I figured 500 was a good start and we will do some updates. I had to create ranges for the spreadsheet to sort right, so for pitchers I just had one velocity for, I just added and subtracted a MPH (for example, if all I have was 95, I changed it to 94-96). For pitchers' in which reports were not that specific (such as, "he throws in the low 90s"), I used this scale:
Low 90s= 90-93
Mid 90s= 94-96
Low to Mid 90s: 90-95
etc.
It is not scientific, but it should work. You should be able to download the spreadsheet by following the link (either click there or copy and paste the link below).

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B_DUd_c_mKWrd0g2Y2NYbzlub1E

Again, it should be emphasized that this is not scientific by any means, this is just to create a place where you can see some estimated velocities for many minor leaguers. The mean was 90-94, which probably sounds about right considering MLB average is 91.7 MPH. Let me know in the comments or via email or twitter if there are any mistakes.

Brewers interested in Alfredo Figaro: Scouting Report

Alfredo Figaro had reportedly signed with the Brewers, but the deal is being held up because of a contract issue with the Orix Buffaloes of the NPB. So it isn't official yet, but I decided to write a scouting report on him anyway. He has pitched the past two years for Orix with a 3.31 ERA and 3.55 FIP.

In the NPB, 2011 league average was 3.25 ERA and 3.23 FIP while 2012 league average was 3.35 ERA and 3.46 FIP. Even Figaro's K/BB/HR rates in isolation are around NPB averages. He seems to be the ideal mid-rotation (or number 3) starter in the NPB.

Figaro is a 28 year old right-handed pitcher that stands at just 6 feet tall. One would figure that because of the height bias (which has some validity in scouting, bias doesn't exactly mean wrong in this case) and the fact that he is a mid-rotation NPB pitcher, he will be a reliever in the minors or majors. He was signed by the Tigers out of the Dominican, and his whole affiliated career was with Detroit. He pitched in 31.2 innings in the Majors (in both starting and relieving roles), and projected as 4th starter as a prospect. His MLB time didn't go well, as he had a 0 fWAR and 119 FIP -.

He threw 3 pitches in the Majors according to Fangraphs: 92.2 MPH fastball, a 81.2 MPH curveball, and 80.6 MPH changeup. However, in what seems to happen to every pitcher (or at least all the ones I write about), there is a classification problem. Brooks Baseball calls the pitch a slider, and says he threw a separate curveball a handful of times. NPB Tracker tends to agree with Brooks Baseball, saying he threw mainly a slider with some curveballs (but more than Brooks said he did) mixed in. The curve averaged 78.37 MPH, while the slider averaged 81.62 MPH. The fastball averaged 92.04 MPH over the two years, and was stronger in 2012.

His delivery is somewhat similar to what you see a lot in Japan. He comes set and starts his windup in a dramatic way similar to what you see a lot in pitcher from the East, and then uses a leg kick that hides the ball (which is helped by him bring the ball and glove low for a split second) before delivering the ball in a fairly standard fashion. His fastball is pretty straight, and he clearly likes to throw it high. His slider isn't a great pitch, at least in movement, but it can be effective when he throws it down and away from right-handers. He uses his fastball as the putaway pitch, he just wants to blow it by people. While his velocity is good, it doesn't seem that it is overpowering enough to do that in the Majors.

Scouting Report on Hirokazu Sawamura

24 year old Hirokazu Sawamura has dominated the NPB over the last two years, with a 20.772 K %, 6.5 BB %, and .6 HR/9IP over the last two years. This is versus the league averages of 17.461 K %, and 7.578 BB %, and 5 HR/9IP. As we have previously seen, the NPB is a league that suppresses offense with the new ball (as evidenced by both the drop in homers and in runs in general), but the K/BB isn't anything dramatic and hasn't really even changed.

Here is Sawamura's NPB Tracker Data:

I watched him in the Asia Series pitch against the Lotte Giants of the KBO. This is inferior competition to what he is used to in the NPB. But on to the videos:

Mechanics:

Fastball:

Sawamura threw it as hard 92.38 to 95.48 MPH with sink, but also showed the ability to throw it high. So basically he can work both eye levels. He got some whiffs with it but gave up several baserunners. He seemed to be really fastball heavy early on and it wasn't until late in the game that he got late into the game.
The fastball moves, that is, it isn't straight. It is a MLB fastball. His average fastball may be a little under average, but he can run it up there with some authority when needed.

Slider:

 The control of this pitch was not very good, and it was his main breaking pitch:

Forkball:

Sawamura didn't throw this pitch a lot, and sometimes it was a little difficult to distinguish from the slider.

Curveball:

The curveball seemed the be the least used pitch (as evidenced by it being what is probably the worst video).


For a guy who has dominated the NPB, the outing against Lotte was not very good, as he struggled with command and control through out. However, even though it wasn't his best day, he still showed good velocity, missed some bats, and looked like a pitcher who might be able to succeed in the Majors with, possessing two decent breaking pitches.

Here is the heat map for the game he threw the most pitches in 2012 (unfortunately, NPB tracker does not have heat maps for seasons, just individual games):

As you can see, Sawamura likes to live in the high part or even in the middle of the zone. This isn't a big deal if this is with his good fastballs.

Depending on his control, I could see him being an average to slightly below average starter in the big leagues. He has the fastball to be a big league starter and has shown durability and has had success at a relatively young age. As almost always, the key to success will rely on the development of his breaking pitches (which look okay) and control.

KBO Scouting Reports: Jin Woo Kim and Kyung-Eun Noh

Here are scouting reports on two pitchers in the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO):

Kyung-Eun Noh (노경은) had a miserable 2011 if you look just at his ERA (5.17), but his FIP was alright at 3.75 (league average ERA in 2010 was 4.58. Baseball Reference doesn't have data on 2011-2012 for some odd reason).
In 2012 he was much better with nearly a strikeout an inning and a 2.53 ERA. Some of this is just DIPS correction, but it does seem he pitched better overall in 2012. There are heat maps available on KBO pitchers at this site and they suggest that Noh was avoiding the middle of the plate in 2012 more than he was in 2011.

2011:

2012:

It does seem that he did a good job of working both sides of the zone if the heat maps are accurate. Something Noh does a good job of is get a lot of grounders, as even in 2011 he had a 0.76 FO/GB (GB/FB inverted, which is what MyKBO.net uses).

The Korean Data site has a list of the pitches the KBO pitchers throw, but just gives pitch ranges, so I used the median for each pitch he throws to give sort of an average.

Noh's fastball is just about 90 MPH, here are his other pitches:

83.39 MPH slider: his most frequent breaking ball

81.22 MPH curve (so a harder curve than most curves). He doesn't use it very often according to the scouting report.

84.01 MPH Forkball. He likes to use it when he is ahead.

Also what I think is a cutter (the word translated as Kurt) at 87.73 MPH. Doesn't use it often according to the report.

Noh has a history of elbow issues that have really cut into his career, and the switch from the bullpen to the starter role (and the jump of innings) is somewhat concerning. He will turn 29 in Spring Training.

Obviously you aren't going to find many (or any) MLB pitchers with a forkball. So we will look at splitters or changes in comparisons.

Hisashi Iwakuma is sort of an interesting comparison (though it sounds racially lazy), though Noh's slider is harder, forkball is slower than Iwakuma's splitter, and his curve is much harder. Joel Peralta is pretty close, other than not having a slider. Mike Minor is really close if you imagine that the forkball and change are basically the same thing. Obviously Minor throws left-handed, which makes the comparison less believable. 2012 Tim Lincecum looks really similar on paper as far as pitch velocity and repitoire, but  Noh doesn't get the kind of movement Lincecum does (though it looks pretty nice):

You see him hit nearly 94 MPH in the video, so his fastball is plus is short spurts. This video (and the one below) gives you a nice look of his mechanics. The forkball plays a prominent role in the video, and I don't think it is a good pitch (though he seems to command it well).

Jin Woo Kim (김진우) is another RHP with the following list of pitches:

91.76 MPH fastball

88.35 MPH sinker

83.39 MPH slider

79.98 MPH change 

76.57 curve is his "main weapon"

Casey Janssen, the Blue Jays excellent reliever, seems to be similar, other than Kim doesn't have the cutter (which is obviously Janssen's repertoire). Amazingly, Kim's change is slower for the fastball that he has than most MLB pitchers. Brad Brach has a similar fastball (a tick higher) and a change that is actually slower, but he isn't very similar to Kim at all. If you just ignore the changeup, Josh Kinney is an interesting comparison as is Christian Friedrich, the Rockies pitcher. 

Kim will turn 30 in March and has had a pretty interesting career path. As you can see, he is a pretty big guy, perhaps even a little pudgy (though that doesn't really seem to matter, as guys like Sidney Ponson and C.C. Sabathia have shown that you can pitch at a big weight at obviously varying success rates). His mechanics seem pretty clean and standard. He has what looks like a long leg kick. His control in the video borders from below average to poor, but I am really hesitant to base much on that. He did walk 50 batters in 133 2/3rd innings, which isn't awful or even bad, but probably a little too high in the KBO (league average was 3.8 in 2010, so it is at least better than average).
That is a pretty nice looking curve (see 55 seconds in the video). He releases the ball from a weird hand angle (see 1:05) that gives it the good spin. The slider is sort of a baby slider that he can throw for strikes, but it has some nice spin when he doesn't hang it.