Can Wladimir Balentien Successfully Return to the Majors?

Wladimir Balentien has become one of the biggest baseball stories around the world as he shattered the NPB home run record despite missing the first couple weeks of the season, doing it in a less hitter friendly run environment than the previous record holders of Oh, Cabrera, and Rhodes (league average home run rate in the NPB Central League is 2.195 % this season, Wladimir Balentien is hitting home runs 11.3 % of his plate appearances, or a HR % + of 516. That puts, relative to league, Barry Bonds' 2001 of 371 HR % + and Chris Davis' 2013 of 264 HR % + to shame, though it isn't quite as impressive as Babe Ruth's 1927, where he had a 951 HR% +). However, Wladimir isn't just hitting home runs. The hitter that was once considered undisciplined and struck out in 26.7 % of Major League at-bats (though he showed some plate discipline at AAA, walking 9.75 % of the time and striking out less than 19 % of the time) has walked nearly exactly as many times as he struck out in the NPB this year. No doubt some of this is a function of being pitched around, but even when you take out his intentional walks, he is still walking 17.8 % of the time, or about 9.25 % better than league average. Tony Blanco, second in league slugging, is walking 11 % of the time, while the best native NPB power hitter, Shinnosuke Abe, has walked 15.8 % of the time, so even compared to the best power hitters in the league, Balentien is walking a lot.

It was an adjustment fellow former-MLB/AAAA power hitter Wily Mo Pena never made. Pena burst onto the NPB scene with long home runs to start the 2011 season, but slowed down significantly, only hitting 21 homers and walking just 6.9 % of the time. This year, he has been nothing short of a disaster, spending a lot of time in the Ni-Gun (the Japanese minor leagues) and just hitting his first Ichi-gun home run in the last couple of weeks. Pena's AAA power numbers were significantly better than Wladimir's as well (though he didn't have the K/BB of Balentien). Despite the time wasted on articles about a "juiced" ball in the NPB, Wladimir's season is nothing short of special statistically, with a 215 SLG + and 182 OPS + relative to 2013 averages. This is an improvement over his 2011 and 2012 seasons, where he had a SLG + of 138 and 169 respectively.

Reports of whether or not Wladimir is interested in coming back to the Majors, are as always, mixed. Sources say that he wants to come back, while Wladimir is still under contract for the next few seasons, and insists that he wants to not only stay a Yakult Swallow until the contract runs out, but play for the team until he retires. If a MLB team does make a serious run at Wladimir, and he is interested, then the actual mechanics of him coming back to the MLB might be a little complicated, with some kind of buyout needing to take place. The point is, if a MLB team does acquire Wladimir Balentien, it won't be for cheap. He is making real guaranteed money in Japan, and not only would the MLB team have to dish out the money for him to be interested, they are probably going to have to pay the Swallows as well. Considering that Balentien slugged .374 in 559 big league plate appearances, hitting at a below replacement level, scouts and executives are going to need to see the tangible evidence that he has changed as a hitter, and isn't just a hitter whose game translated to Japan better than expected. That is, figuring out which hitters will translate from Japan to the Majors, or vise versa, is hard work (pitchers, as fickle as they are, are obviously easier, as both MLB and NPB teams successfully acquire quality "foreign" pitchers much more often than hitters). Balentien obviously translated from somewhat of a AAAA player to a great NPB hitter. The question for MLB teams watching Balentien put together one of the best power hitting seasons ever seen is this: Is he still the hitter that struggled to have his raw power come out in games in 2008 or 2009, or has his time in Japan allowed him to become a different and objectively better hitter that would succeed against MLB pitching if given another chance? Notice I am not asking: "Is Wladimir Balentien's home run title legitimate?" or "Is the power Wladimir has shown this year "real"?" The answer to those questions is yes, of course. The statistics don't lie. Wladimir went to one of the best leagues in the world and has outhit players that actually had success in the Majors, such as Casey McGehee, Lastings Milledge, and Andruw Jones. We aren't asking if he is statistically interesting as a "MLB prospect". He is. This post is just an attempt at doing the work to see, from a somewhat advanced scouting perspective, whether or not the incredible statistics would translate to the Major Leagues.

First, I thought it might be helpful to take a look at his swing, comparing his current swing with the Yakult Swallows to the swing he used while in the Majors. By doing so, perhaps we can spot any major mechanical differences that may be helping him, if they exist. So with the caveat that I think trying to find little things in swing mechanics often come with confirmation biases (my favorite example is Ike Davis. When he is struggling, everyone talks about where his hands are, despite the fact that he has had quite a bit of MLB success with his hands in the same spot), let's take a look at a few GIFs.

Here is Wladimir pulling a home run for the Seattle Mariners:

Here is Wladimir's last MLB home run, a pulled shot with the Reds:

The swing looks the same in both of the MLB GIFs to me. It is a hard violent rip with a violent twisting of the body to pull the ball and almost sling the bat along with him. The head looks fine, and he seems to be under relative control with a firm foot. It is a hard swing, and I can't speak to bat speed, but he isn't completely wild.

This groundball single from the WBC demonstrates how well he stays in I believe:

Here is his 56th homer of the year in 2013:

If anything, he seems to come out of his stance a little more, "swinging from the heels" more than he did in the above GIFs. There is more motion in his overall swing, but there seems to be a little more reach, a little more plate coverage. If you are desperately trying to prove that Balentien has improved, you could argue that his swinging motion is less binary, and that he is adjusting to balls better. Whether or not the bat seems faster is impossible for me to tell, I don't see a difference at least. So other than maybe more plate coverage, I don't think swing mechanics are very helpful in the case that Wladimir will adjust to MLB pitching better if given another chance. Looking at the data below will be much more helpful.

One of the first questions, whether rightly or wrongly, risen about hitters playing in Japan is whether or not they can handle elite fastballs, something that they don't see often in the NPB. We can look back at Wladimir's time in the Majors and see that he saw 112 pitches above 95 MPH. He swung at missed at 20 of them and made contact (balls put in play) with 9 of them. So despite only seeing a few pitches about 99 MPH and none above 100, he swing and missed at 95 MPH + fastballs like they were at least 99 MPH according to our fastball velocity breakdowns.

So it does seem like this was a problem for Wladimir, whether he was slow to recognize pitches, or his swing was long enough that he couldn't catch up to them. Of course, hitting elite fastballs isn't the only thing MLB hitters have to do to be successful, so let's take a look at his overall Pitch F/X data while he was in the Majors, starting with his average result locations:

While most MLB hitters are more likely to hit homers on balls closer to them and higher in the zone, swinging and missing at pitches lower and away, Balentien was pretty extreme. He did like faster and straighter pitches, making contact with pitches about the same velocity as the average pitch, but hitting homers on pitches more likely to be fastballs. Perhaps one of the reasons his power didn't play in the Majors was because he relied on getting pitches in zones that pitchers wouldn't throw many pitches. He would look for high and in fastballs, and pitchers knew it, so they wouldn't give it to him.

He clearly had a plan as the difference between the pitches Balentien swung at and the ones he took shows:

Though he didn't have a great walk rate, he was a pretty selective hitter. He got a lot of pitches low and away, and he didn't swing at many of them because he knew that he would just swing and miss. He would make pitchers come up in the strike zone to him. I think this helps show that he had his zone and a plan at the plate, but it was so binary that pitchers knew it and knew how to attack him.

Here are the locations and velocities of all of Wladimir's homers:

Notice that the vast majority of them are in the 85-91 MPH range. The only really good fastball he hit for a home was away, giving him more time to catch up, and he only had one homer on really slow pitch.

Of course, with him in the NPB now, we do have some version of pitch data, and for the purposes of this post, I will use the Gen's breakdown at yakyubaka.com on Balentien's strike zone and homers this season. Out of respect for one of my favorite sites to read about NPB baseball, I won't republish any of his graphs (only commenting on them in general terms) and encourage readers to read that post as well (it has more graphs and less words than this post).

Here is Balentien's heat maps as a MLBer (via Brooks Baseball). I don't love using batting average, but that is what Gen used (if you do follow the link and look at his graphs, remember that Pitch F/X graphs, such as the ones above and the one below, are from the catcher's perspective, while the Yahoo! NPB graphs Gen used are from the pitcher's perspective. So they are basically flipped), so this way we can compare them better.

Balentien couldn't do anything with balls up and in for the most part, but did really well on balls down and in. In the NPB, it appears that his best zones have been up, mainly up and away, a below average spot for him in the Majors. Down and away in the zone seems to be a weakness for Balentien in the NPB, while he was good on those pitches in the Majors. He isn't as strong on inside pitches in the NPB as well. It seems that the best way for NPB pitchers to pitch to him is to keep the ball low. Anything high or over the middle of the plate gets destroyed. He will swing and miss at fastballs high, but his real swing and miss spots are on breaking balls thrown low and away, according to the graphs on Yakyubaka. However, when breaking balls are kept in the middle of the zone, that is "hung", Wladimir takes advantage of them.

Just two of his first 50 home runs of the season came on pitches thrown middle in or up and in, so it doesn't appear that he has fixed that part of his swing, which makes his particularness in the MLB (where he wanted pitchers to throw up and in on him) a little strange. It seems that he wanted pitches up and in (more likely, up and in the middle of the plate), though he actually struggles on these kinds of pitches, especially if they have plus velocity.

After looking at Wladimir's mechanics and the pitches he likes to swing at or struggles with, the next logical step seems to be to take a look at where the ball goes when Wladimir hits it. In Japan so far, the answer seems to be "far" or "over the fence", but we can start by looking at his spray chart as a MLBer spray chart as a MLBer (via Texas Leaguers):

There is some opposite field power there, but the vast majority of his home runs and batted balls (especially when you look at all the outs in the infield) come on pulled balls. For perspective, as a MLBer, Wladimir pulled the ball 31.1 % of the time. MLB average for right-handed batters (at least in 2013) is 26.7 %. 50.05 % of homers by right-handed batters are pulled, while 9 of Wladimir's homers (60 %) came on pulled balls. As I think you could have guessed from the GIFs above, he was a pretty heavy pull hitter.

To test if this was still the case, I watched Wladimir's first 55 home runs of the year (from Yakyubaka's video) and labelled them by what field they were hit to:
37 pulled
9 center
9 opposite

So he is still a pull hitter, and perhaps even more aggressively so. I think him being a pull hitter that doesn't handle up and in pitches well is pretty concerning from a Major League perspective. One could speculate all day on what goes on in someone else's mind and not get very far, but perhaps Wladimir feels that while a pull happy approach in the Majors didn't exactly work for him, he can pull everything in Japan, that he can just wait for the mistake with the breaking ball, or wait for the pitcher to finally throw a fastball, and pull it with authority. We know that the average fastball for a starter in Japan is about 5 MPH off the average fastball for a MLB pitcher. This makes it somewhat hard to evaluate hitters coming from Japan (or Cuba or Korea, or even AAA) to the Majors, though at least you can quantify the fastball difference. On the other hand, it is nearly impossible to quantify the breaking ball difference. Not only are breaking balls different in the NPB (some examples include more slow curves and less hard curves, sliders thrown for strikes to hitters on both sides of the plate, and less changeups and more splitters), but they are also hard to grade by quality. Are the breaking balls Wladimir is seeing in the NPB worse than the ones he would see in the MLB? And by how much? How can we even estimate it, much less know the difference?

He has gotten better on balls away, but not on balls in. There are still holes in his offensive game that you can point to and lead you to believe that he would not be a successful NPB hitter. However, to use a name I mentioned above, there are still a lot of holes in Chris Davis' game. He still strikes out nearly 30 % of the time. However, he seems to have harnessed his raw power enough to bring it into games consistently (we will see if it is something he can do over multiple seasons, but I would say that a 50 + home run season means he has done pretty well) by improving his plate discipline, getting his walk rate from below 7 % to above 10 %. So even with the apparent flaws in his game, Wladimir's extreme power with improved plate discipline, with less swings on breaking balls out of the zone leading to more walks, he could still be a potent force in any lineup in the world. Perhaps he is already there, as a Yomiuri Giants coach argues:

"His eye has improved a lot...Compared to last year, he is swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone"

The CPBL hitters better than Manny Ramirez

Despite playing games for 23 years, the Chinese Professional Baseball League probably received the most notoriety in the United States for the exploits of Manny Ramirez with the EDA Rhinos.

Ramirez had a .422 OBP and .555 SLG in his 49 games, making him not only the most notable hitter in the league, but arguably the best as well.  He would go on to play 30 games for the Rangers' AAA affiliate Round Rock, and things didn't go well, as the power evaporated (.111 ISO) and he had a 82 wRC +, similar to his 84 wRC + in 17 games with the Oakland Athletics affiliate in 2012. Of course translations don't work perfectly, or even well at times, but it probably does speak to the talent level of the CPBL that Ramirez couldn't hit in AAA, but dominated the league in his half season. For this post, I found three hitters that had similar 2013 seasons (though they played the full season instead of the first half) to get a look at a few of the best hitters in the league. Like the majority of posts on this blog, it is from an American perspective, so the goal is to see whether or not any of them are MLB prospects. All three players are 27 years old, so they could be considered in the prime of their careers.

Yi-Chuan Lin

The 2013 Home Run derby winner, Lin had the exact same HR % and OBP as Manny Ramirez. Lin also outdid him in slugging percentage by .005. These statistics nearly match 2012's exactly (.419 OBP, .573 SLG). He had more groundouts than flyouts, though the ratio is closer to 1 in 2013 than in 2012. Obviously not much of a runner as a first baseman, he provides no real positional value, though it appears he played a couple of games at 3rd base.For each individual hitter, I GIF'd one of their swings on a home run:

When pitchers throw low and in on him, he can pull the ball with quite a bit of authority. However, he doesn't always have a power swing, and his extreme contact ways are not typical when scouting first basemen. He will cut down on his swing to make sure he puts the ball in play, even going down low and slapping the ball. I don't think that elite pitching would be able to blow the ball past him, but good breaking balls can make him chase and cause him to sacrifice all his power. Perhaps he doesn't have the elite power you want in a corner infielder because he doesn't look the part. If you saw him on a baseball field without seeing his numbers compared to other CPBL hitters, you wouldn't peg him as a power hitter, and at least in this case, I think the bias is warranted. Also, if a picture of Lin was shown to the Rangers before they signed Manny Ramirez and they were told that the two of them hit for the same power in Tawain, then they might not have signed him, or at least, they could have predicted that Manny would fail in AAA. So this is what Lin has stacked against him when getting evaluated by MLB scouts. He is a first baseman that has an offensive game of a solid second baseman or shortstop. He hits for a good average by relying on contact with an occasional home run. That is a skill set that has value, but not from the most power driven position in the MLB.

If Lin (or 2013 Manny) is the best the CPBL has to offer when it comes to power then the MLB isn't going to be looking to the league for powerful position players. So if there is a MLB prospect that is a position player, they have to establish being one by doing something other than hitting for power. It is going to have to come from being a high average hitter with positional value or by great speed or defense.

Kuo Hui Lo

His OBP was .014 points smaller, but he out slugged Ramirez by .010 points. Lo was once a minor leaguer in the United States, playing in the Mariners system from 2006-2011, reaching AA and holding his own (.335 OBP and .430 SLG in pitcher friendly league), but a horrible leg injury at home plate cost him the 2012 season and ended his MLB affiliated career. However, with the season he had in 2013, perhaps he will be back on MLB radars even though he is now 27 years old. Perhaps the biggest thing for him is that he played 89 games in a season and was able to play the field.

Lo had 8 assists defensively, playing all three outfield positions, but mainly centerfield this season. In the minors, he mainly played left field with mostly positive FRAAs, with 2008 being an exception.

He was a pretty extreme flyball hitter this year:

In the minors, the only time he hit more than 10 homers or had an Isolated Slugging over .200 was in the extremely hitter friendly environment of High Desert in 2009. Just by league averages that season, he wasn't overly impressive, but was close to some fringy big leaguers like Konrad Schmidt, Efren Navarro, J.B. Shuck, and Charlie Blackmon. He clearly has some occasional power that he brings into games, and despite not having huge size (he does after all, have to play in the middle of the outfield), he is 6-2 188, certainly big enough to be a big leaguer.

I don't love the swing, and that may be an obstacle for potential MLB teams. He dips his front shoulder, not giving him a smooth or quick swing path to inside pitches. It doesn't seem to take away from his power and he still has the reach and plate coverage to hit pitches outside well, but I think elite pitching would come inside on him and have success.

Hung-Yu Lin

Listed as a catcher, but appears to be mostly a DH, as he caught just 28 of the 97 games he played. Lin has less power than the two players above, slugging just .477 (4th best out of qualified hitters, which Ramirez wasn't because of lack of at-bats), but his OBP was .431, best in the CPBL.

This year, he was a groundball hitter for the first time in his career. While it doesn't look like Lin has great bat speed, he clearly has the strength and plate coverage to hit balls on the outside part of the plate with some authority.

The decider of Hung-Yu Lin's value will be his abilities behind the plate. While I can't speak intelligently about whether or not he is a good receiver, thrower, or even game caller, the fact that it seems he has mostly been a DH suggests that he isn't a plus catcher. This really hurts any value he has with MLB teams because he doesn't hit for the power of the guys above, and doesn't have a real position.

Tony Cingrani, The One Pitch Starter?

We are introduced to players in different ways. It may or may not be the first time we see them, but it is the first time we notice them. The time I was introduced to Tony Cingrani of the Cincinnati Reds was on the 27th of June in 2012 when he was pitching in AA against the Seattle Mariners affiliate. He struck out 15 batters, facing 25 in 8 innings. He did this with what was, according to the MiLB.TV broadcast, a 88-91 MPH fastball. Since then, Cingrani has broken into the big leagues and has had some MLB success in 33 innings. Since it is obviously a small sample size and there seemed to be tension or even a contradiction between his stuff and minor league numbers, I wanted to look at his MLB Pitch F/X data so far for his career and see if we can make sense of what Cingrani is and what he will be in the Majors.

First, let's take a look at what he is throwing:

This suggests a fastball, a changeup, a curve (both a heavy spin and a non-spin one), and maybe a handful of sliders. Despite the reports of his minor league velocity above, Cingrani's fastball has the potential to flash plus, as he has thrown 35 fastballs over 95 MPH (he has thrown 625 Pitch F/X pitches). He isn't a soft tosser, and the speed and spin chart shows that he throws a lot of fastballs.

Cingrani's average release point is 5.88 vertically and 2.65 horizontally, which is closest to Jeff Francis and Jon Lester, and is one of the farthest out left-handed starters in the Pitch F/X period. Or in graph form, this is what Cingrani's release point looks like:

Lester doesn't have much platoon splits for his career, but Francis has always had large ones. Of course, there is a big difference in fastballs between Francis and Lester. Francis is a soft tosser, while Lester has a plus fastball. Cingrani seems to fit closer to Lester, at least showing off a good fastball (not saying Cingrani is Jon Lester obviously, just that his fastball is much closer to Lester's than Francis'). However, let's see if Cingrani's strike zone against righties reveals any tendencies.

It doesn't really. He throws more pitches away, which makes some sense no matter what the pitcher or platoon, but it isn't a heavy distinction, and there doesn't seem to be any notable tendencies up or down. The heavy usage of fastballs by Cingrani is what is really interesting to me.

It is tough to tell his slowest fastballs from his harder changeups, which isn't an uncommon problem, but using the rough cutoff the MLBAM tags take, about 88 MPH (that is, what is slower is a changeup and what is harder is a fastball), we get 103 non-fastball pitches. Out of those pitches, he has 10 swinging strikes, and 14 balls put in play (including home runs). It seems that the softer the pitch, the curve, and maybe a slider, have been more effective, meaning that his change hasn't been very effective. Compare this to his 58 whiffs with his fastball in the 522 pitches he has thrown. This means he has a higher whiff percentage on his fastball than he does his off-speed and breaking pitches. This is pretty unusual. In the Pitch F/X era, the best whiff fastball for starting pitchers has a 32.12 whiff/swing percentage (13.4 whiff percentage), while the best whiff curve has a 49.62 whiff/swing percentage (20.96 whiff percentage) and the best whiff change has a 54.07 whiff/swing percentage (28.96 whiff percentage, this data according to Baseball Prospectus' Pitch F/X leaderboards). So Cingrani's successful fastball but unsuccessful off-speed pitches is a little bizarre. But is it a problem? There are two ways to approach this. To have success in the big leagues, it is common knowledge that you must "establish your fastball" and when you have a plus fastball like Cingrani, you have a chance to have real success in the Majors. However, to be a good starter and to get hitters out the third time through the order, you usually have to show MLB hitters something else. Let's look at how Cingrani is using and locating those pitches so far:

He is mostly doing a good job of keeping the ball low, but he doesn't really get in on righties or get it very far away from lefties. He also seems to be having some kind of problem finishing his delivery with these pitches, leaving a lot of them up and arm side.

Since he seems to be a strikeout pitcher (with a very high strikeout total throughout the minors and in the Majors in his small sample size), I wanted to see his breakdown of pitches with two strikes, how he tries to finish hitters. Using his spin and speed chart with two strikes:

We see that he basically goes to just his fastball with two strikes. He doesn't throw hardly any changeups, and not a significant amount of curves. He goes to his best pitch, which is his fastball. But enough about selection, let's look at location:

Here, we see he does a better job of throwing the ball towards the right-handed batters box, and (along with the pitches that appear to be armside misses) he seems to throw more intention high pitches, which isn't surprising since he throws mainly fastballs. Again, this is very unusual when looking at elite strikeout pitchers, as Justin Verlander's fastball usage drops 12%, Yu Darvish's 6%, and Matt Harvey 6% as well. We simply do not see starting pitchers start throwing even more fastballs with 2 strikes.

The heavy fastball usage makes questions about whether he can stick as a successful starting pitcher legitimate, and may prompt a move to the bullpen, where one could imagine he would become very successful. With 2 strikes, some elite strikeout relievers don't go away from their fastballs, as Papelbon throws it just 1% less, while Fernando Rodney throws it 9% more, (David Robertson throws it 9% less, and Tom Wilhelmsen 10 % less).

Chad Cordero's Pitch F/X Data

At Seattle Sports Central, I wrote about Jeremy Bonderman's spring training Pitch F/X data, a pitcher who hasn't pitched since 2010 before the outing. Chad Cordero is another pitcher who hasn't pitched since 2010, but is currently in camp with the Angels and pitched in a spring training game at Peoria, giving us some Pitch F/X data to look at.

Of course, the first thing you notice is fastball velocity. He averaged 89.4 MPH, maxing out at 90.4 MPH, obviously well below average for a bullpen pitcher. However, this is the best we have seen Cordero since 2007. Back then, he averaged over 91 MPH on his fastball. Due to some arm problems, that fastball velocity cratered to 84.41 MPH in 2008, he didn't pitch in 2009, and got back up to 88.37 MPH in 2010. Unlike with Bonderman, the years off seem to have given Cordero a better fastball that he has in quite a while.

Of course, he only threw three of the 4-seam fastballs. Even though Brooks Baseball didn't separate his 4-seamer into different fastballs when he was still pitching in the Majors, MLB AM data did when they started separating 2-seamers and 4-seamers in 2010. The MLB AM data says Cordero mainly threw the 2-seamer in his spring training outing on Friday. This pitched got nearly as high as the 4-seamer (90.3 MPH), but on average was a couple MPH slower. With that said, he did get very good movement on the pitch:

You will notice though that he didn't get much movement on the slider. In his last decent year, 2007, Cordero's slider averaged 80.93 MPH. In his spring training outing, it averaged 80.05 MPH, almost a full MPH down. His slider was about average in horizontal movement and probably a little bit below average in vertical movement (though sometimes it is hard to tell thanks to misclassifications). 2007 data is a little harder to gather, but this slider from 2007 suggests that the pitch was moving more horizontally in 2007.

He threw 5 curveballs according to Pitch F/X in 2010, but he didn't throw any before then, and didn't throw it in his outing against the Mariners either. So this was probably a mistake in the system anyway, especially since the velocity was so similar to the slider (though the movement was much different).

At 6-0, he obviously isn't releasing the ball very high. However, it seems that he is releasing the ball even lower now, as you compare a 2007 chart to his chart from Friday:

He also seems to have, although this is a bit more subtle, begun to release the ball closer to his body.

 

 This creates a somewhat bizarre picture of Cordero's delivery, as you usually don't release the ball lower if you are releasing it closer to your body (it usually works vise versa). I do think that we can see the difference in a couple pictures I found in a quick Google Search (the first is from Rant Sports, and the 2nd from Orange County Register). First, here is Cordero as a Mariner in 2010:

It hurts my elbow to see it at this angle (I think you could call this "arm drag", as the arm seems to be behind the body), but this looks like a 3/4 delivery. Here is a picture of Cordero pitching for the Angels:

This is at a different point in the delivery, but it seems that the elbow is more down, less out, and he is releasing the ball a little more over the top, which meshes with the release point data.

This is usually a good thing, especially when it comes to platoon splits, but as a guy trying to make the team as an extra reliever, this may not necessarily be a good thing. For short term relievers, big platoon splits are actually a good thing, as it gives them a niche and role to fit in on the big league club. With that said, for a guy like Cordero, who has had major arm issues for several years now, the importance lies in delivery repetition. If the new delivery puts less stress on his arm, then it is successful, even if it erodes at his platoon splits a little.

Cordero also threw a changeup that we haven't talked about yet. In 2007, this was a small but existent part of his repetition, as he threw 6% of the time. If you look at the movement chart from the spring training outing, you notice that the pitch moves a lot like his fastballs, but in the game, was about 4 MPH lower (which is about 1 MPH slower than it was in 2007, matching the rest of his pitches in the velocity drop for the most part, above where it was after 2007, but below 2007 itself). You would usually like to see a difference in not only velocity, but more importantly I think, movement in the change and fastball.

While this comparison isn't really fair, look at the difference between Felix Hernandez' changeup and fastball in movement:

Felix has one of, if not the, best changeups in baseball. Even though he throws it over 89 MPH, and sometimes over 90 MPH, a 3 or 4 MPH difference from his fastball, it is so effective because it looks like the fastball, then moves differently horizontally and vertically than his fastball, and has more vertical drop than his sinker.

Obviously Cordero isn't trying to throw a changeup as good as Felix. As a reliever, the changeup, his 3rd (his 4th if you separate his fastballs) pitch, isn't that important, so the fact that it doesn't appear to be a very good pitch isn't a big deal. It is nice to have as many good pitches as possible though, especially if you don't throw very hard, and Cordero doesn't compared to other relievers.

This is spring training, so we shouldn't put much stock in results. This is good for Cordero, because his results were not very good. He gave up a homer to the first batter he faced, defensive shortstop Brendan Ryan. He didn't get a single whiff in his 20 pitches, and threw 11 strikes, which is a little low percentage wise.

At this point, it is early in spring, but it is a little hard to see Cordero cracking the Angels bullpen, even to start the year. The Angels bullpen struggled last year, but we have to be realistic when talking to Cordero. He is right-handed, has a long injury history, doesn't throw hard or even average, and at this point, doesn't look like he has a very good breaking or off-speed pitch. It is a good story, but he will probably start in AAA. If he stays healthy, finds his slider again, and pitches well in the PCL, then it is possible you will see Cordero in the Majors this year, but as is the case in all comeback attempts, the odds are stacked against him.

Keone Kela Scouting Report

Keone Kela was ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Rangers' deep farm system by the Newburg Report. Kela was drafted by the Rangers out of Everett Community College in the 12th round in 2012. The Mariners had drafted him the previous year in the 29th round out of high school, but he didn't sign. He wasn't ranked as a great prospect out of high school (97th in the state of Washington by Max Preps and 6045th in the nation, which is basically undraftable), but matched his good high school numbers with good numbers in Community College. After being drafted and signing with the Rangers, he followed with good numbers in a small sample size in the Arizona Summer League, getting over 60% of hitters that put the ball in play to hit grounders and nearly 34 % of all batters to strikeout. Obviously, we don't have much reason to believe that college or high school pitching statistics mean anything, and the AZL league is such a small sample that it is hard to put any weight into it (and perhaps we shouldn't be looking at short-season statistics anyway, especially complex leagues).

His size,6-1 190, as a right-hander, most likely played a large role in him being underrated by some. While the Rangers are going to try him as a starter in the future according to reports, the height makes it likely he will be a reliever.
As is not usual for pitchers in the low minors/high school/college, velocity reports are somewhat inconsistent and evolving. He has been clocked at 93-97 MPH in the AZL. When he was drafted by the Mariners, it appears that his fastball was 89-91 MPH, and when he was in community college his fastball was 91-95 MPH (or 93 MPH). He then touched 100 MPH in the summer. Baseball America rated his fastball as the best in the Rangers' draft class.

From video I watched of him, his delivery did not seem very fluid and he brought a high leg kick along with a 3/4 delivery. He had the pointed foot thing where his leg and foot wasn't exactly pointed the right direction. Reportedly, his delivery is better now and nothing was overly messy for a 19 year old (will turn 20 in April) anyway. He was also used as a designated hitter in college (when you search his name, once you get past the draft stuff, you will probably see stories about him getting robbed of an homer by a great catch in the 9th inning of a game) and if the school website is correct, he also played some outfield as well. This all means that he is most likely athletic, which is always good to see in pitchers. From what I saw of him, he did seem to be athletic, but I don't really think he will grow out anymore (which most likely means he isn't "projectable", although his fastball has obviously been gaining speed)

There is definitely a lot to like about Keone Kela as a pitching prospect. He has a real fastball that could turn into an elite fastball. This alone could get him in the Majors. With a pitcher that young, especially considering his height, there are always variables that we just can't forecast. To become a starter, his breaking pitches (I hear he throws an 81 MPH slider, but not really much else) will have to develop, but we are far away from seeing Kela in the Majors anyway. For now, he is one to watch, even though he most likely won't be in full season ball until 2014.

Bryan Holaday Scouting Report

According to Michigan Live, the Detroit Tigers appear slated to use Bryan Holaday as their back up catcher. The team lost Gerald Laird to the Braves in free agency and traded away prospect (who was in AAA with them and played in the Majors with the Marlins) Rob Brantly during the season (to help land them Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez).

Holaday is a 25 year old right-handed hitting catcher that was drafted in the 6th round out of TCU. He made his Major League debut in the middle of 2012, playing in 4 games for the Tigers (he went 3 for 11). He spent the rest of the year in AAA, playing in 75 games. Holaday really struggled, with a 91 wOBA + and 77 OPS +. While his K/BB wasn't bad (better than league average at 1.95), he didn't for any power (measly .080 ISO) mostly likely driven by a high (50 %) ground-ball percentage. It is easy to blame the lack of power numbers on AAA Toledo's home park (92 park factor in 2012 and 98 park factor in 2011), but Holaday's numbers were much worse on the road. In his short professional career, Holaday has not been league average in any of his stops. This may be surprising when you look at his college statistics, but Holiday had a .917 OPS in 701 at-bats before the change in bats (which has suppressed offense at least somewhat) when the Mountain West League Average was roughly .881 in 2010. Considering that most Mountain West players do not succeed professionally (one of the best pitchers in the conference that year was Wily Kesler, who never made it to AA and is pitching in Independent Ball) , you would expect an "average minor league hitter" would probably be better than .036 better than league average (C.J. Cron had an eye popping 1.172 OPS in the MWC that has translated to above average numbers in A +. College numbers, and minor league numbers for that matter, do not always translate linearly of course, Justin Smoak being a great example, but the point stands that you have to look at the college numbers in their context, especially before the change in bats).

The bat not seeming to be there is not a huge deal for Holaday, as he was drafted mainly as a defensive first catcher. Obviously as a senior college catcher with the arm and complete confidence that he would stick behind the plate, he was taken as a high floor player (meaning he was not risky, but his upside of what he could be is not as high as most players). In the minors, his caught stealing rate is exactly the same as Rob Brantly's, and he allows less passed balls. The basic catching statistics aren't always helpful (there are a lot variables and sabermetrics and scouting has gotten much better when it comes to evaluating catcher defense), but I really liked Rob Brantly's defense when I watched him (though the advanced fielding metrics at Fangraphs and Getting Blanked rated him as negative in the small sample size).

In reading pre-draft scouting reports, it did seem that most thought he would have more power that he has shown. Again, statistically, this can be explained. He also isn't a huge guy, though his swing itself is pretty smooth and the bat looks quick. In college, he had an obvious uppercut swing, which makes his low power/high ground-ball rate 2012 make no sense (while he didn't hit for much power in AA in 2011 either, he at least didn't have a big ground-ball rate). However, when I watched the video of his few MLB at-bats, the uppercut was basically gone. There is a bit of a leg kick and a lunge in his swing, but he isn't striking out a lot, so it is not as if those things are causing him to not make contact (it just might not be particularly good contact). He doesn't really have any kind of platoon splits over the last two years in the minors, which is a good thing for a backup catcher.

While Gerald Laird doesn't exactly leave big shoes to fill, starting catcher Alex Avila was ridden hard by the Tigers in 2011 and the wear and tear showed in 2012. Avila also has developed some really nasty platoon splits, and has become completely ineffective versus left-handed pitching. This makes the Tigers backup catcher very important, as it needs to be someone who can hit lefties (Holaday is right-handed, but again he hasn't shown platoon splits in the minors) and step in capably in the case of an injury. The Tigers are a team that will be the favorite in the AL Central and will again try to compete for a World Series. Putting themselves in a situation where Holaday is their main backup option seems very unwise, as he is a 3rd option and AAA player in my mind. The Tigers should go after another backup catcher or at least have another legitimate option in mind.

Ranking the DFA'd

Yesterday was a big day in baseball, as teams had to decide which prospects they wanted to protect from the Rule 5 draft. This of course leads to players being taken off the 40 man roster to make room. According to MLBDepthCharts, 23 players were DFA'd yesterday. Here is my rankings of the players along with a paragraph on each of them:

1.Adam Moore (Royals): He played in just 4 big league games and just 72 overall in the Majors at age 28 (going to turn 29 in May). They haven't gone real well, and he has really struggled with injuries. Still, he has hit well in the minors, and is still somewhat interesting as 3rd catcher. Probably borderline on whether he is worth claiming, definite minor league contract guy.

2. Scott Cousins (Mariners): Despite having some extreme offensive and contact problems in the Majors, two teams have already thought he was worth enough to claim him (and then of course designated him). The tools make him interesting enough to teams that he will get his chance. Another borderline case, the two DFA's probably makes him a guy that you wouldn't claim. MiLB contract and invite to Spring Training makes sense. What he becomes relies on contact, but he is a possibility as a 5th outfielder (though the skill sets of Felix Pie and Darren Ford, both signed to MiLB contracts by the Pirates, are slightly more attractive).

3. Brayan Pena (Royals): long time back-up catcher, epitome of a replacement player. He is going to turn 31 years old to start the 2012 season. I can't imagine anyone claiming him unless they are just absolutely desperate for catching (he has already played for the Braves in the past, just saying). It seems like he is worth a minor league contract and invite to spring training as a AAA catcher/emergency big leaguer.

4. Derrick Robinson (Royals): Despite posting mainly good peripherals, the 25 year old has never hit very well in the minors. He plays a good centerfield according to some data and he can run really well. The 4th rounder at least has the tools to be an extra outfielder, but it just isn't something the Royals need right now.

5. Chris Volstad (Royals): A frustrating back of the rotation starter, the sinker baller has shown some potential, but doesn't miss many bats, and walks too many batters for his skill set. He has still been an above replacement pitcher and could perhaps eat up some emergency innings (a good infield would help him).

6. Cory Burns (Padres): Burns is interesting because he is 25 and put up some sparkling numbers in the PCL this year. The thing that makes him uninteresting is his well below average velocity and the fact that he is a right-handed reliever. He instead relies mainly on a changeup. It is a good changeup, and it has helped him get both lefties and righties out. We will see if it helps him get out hitters on a consistent basis in the Majors.

7. Zach Stewart (Red Sox): A product of a few different trades, Stewart has found the Majors very rough. In his 103 innings, he has a ridiculous FIP of 7.55 thanks to a low strikeout rate (but low walk rate) and over 2 home runs per 9 innings. With that said, he has a good ground-ball rate (50%), so his SIERA is 3.93, pretty solid. What Stewart actually is obviously somewhere in the middle. He has a mix of pitches  that he can throw in virtually any count (his tendencies aren't very predictable) but he has below average velocity. There is a chance he could be a back of the rotation guy, getting a lot of ground-balls and giving up a lot of contact. He is the kind of guy that could benefit from a pitcher ballpark more than others.

8. Mike McCoy (Blue Jays): McCoy cannot hit at all, but he has played in 170 big league games and has shown that he is a good fielder making him a capable utility man in the minors. He is a great example of why AAA Las Vegas numbers mean nothing, as he has clobbered the ball there, only to be one of the worse hitters in the Majors.

9. Cory Wade (Blue Jays): Wade is an interesting guy as a below average velocity reliever that has had some MLB success. A bounce back season from 2012 is likely, but he isn't a guy with high value.

10. Jim Miller (Athletics): DIPs hasn't been impressed with his short (63.1 innings) MLB career, but the veteran right-handed reliever has decent velocity and solid numbers in AAA. The question is not whether or not he can miss bats, it is whether or not he can limit walks.

11. Vin Mazzarro (Royals): Despite decent to above average velocity, Mazzaro has never really put it together. In now 286 big league innings, he has not proved much at all except that he can be an above replacement pitcher. Still just 26, he relies on basically just his fastball and slider, never really finding a 3rd pitch to get hitters out with. Perhaps a move to the bullpen would help, but it didn't work so well in 2012.

12. Bryan Lahair (Cubs): He turned out to be the AAAA hitter that Theo and company insisted didn't exist after a big start. Several Japanese teams have been looking at him, and the rumor is that he was DFA'd so he could pursue opportunities there (it appears that he has already signed with the Softbank Hawks for 950,000). The 10 % BB/30 % K MLB player seems to work over there for a few different reasons, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him have success there. He is probably better than Wily Mo Pena, as at least statistically he is an above average MLB hitter (obviously the lack of other skills get in the way).

13. Chone Figgins (Mariners): I honestly had no idea where to rank him. He has been so terrible over the last 2 seasons (and he wasn't good the year before), and the chances of him getting better at age 35 (before the start of the season) are slim to none. He doesn't quite have the speed he used to, and his defense has been pretty poor (it doesn't look he can be a traditional utility player), and his bat has absolutely disappeared. Still, he has had a really solid career and some team will bring him in on a MiLB deal and see if he can resurrect himself.

14. Sandy Rosario (Red Sox): His numbers may not be eye popping in the minors, but they aren't bad, and he has a good fastball that averages almost 95 MPH along with a slider and change that he throws quite a bit. He is already 27, and despite his short sample in the Majors, he could be a guy that eventually sticks in a MLB bullpen.

15. Fabio Martinez (Indians): Martinez has a big time fastball, but he has really struggled with command. He is still just 23, but hasn't yet reached AA. This is why he isn't worth a 40 man spot yet, as he simply isn't ready. However, there is more potential here than just about anyone on this list.

16. Clint Robinson (Royals): Somewhat of a classic AAA slugger, Robinson has put up some eye popping numbers in the minors. Despite playing in a hitter friendly park in Omaha the last two years, he has virtually no home/road splits and he has walked more than he has struck out against righties. The decent strikeout rate makes him interesting, but it is hard to tell with these sluggers sometimes. He could be a bench bat, a AAAA slugger forever, or even go to the NPB.

17. Brandon Hicks (Athletics): Once considered somewhat of a prospect, Hicks hasn't really hit since he got to AA and his time in the Majors has been a disaster. However, he still can play shortstop, and evidently a pretty good one. There is always some value there.

18. Mike McDade (Blue Jays): Despite not turning 24 until May of 2013, it is quite apparent that McDade is the traditional AAAA slugger. He provides no defensive value with that body type and the bat speed just isn't there. However, he has put up some monster numbers in AA and AAA, and at the very least can be brought in by a team to anchor the 1B/DH spot in AAA and be a bench bat in an absolute emergency.

19. David Carpenter (Red Sox): While Carpenter does have an above average fastball, it has lead to no MLB success. He gets a fair amount of strikeouts, but too many walks and not enough grounders have lead to his demise. His sample sizes in the minors are too small to really glean anything from, but he doesn't belong on a 40 man roster but does at least belong in a MLB camp (if just for the fastball).

20. Danny Valencia (Red Sox): Valencia has had some success in the Majors, he was good in 2010 and above replacement in 2011, but the value is all tied to his bat and he was a mess in 2012. He seems really reliant on BABIP, which is no way to make a living. Perhaps he has some kind of rebound (it's hard to predict BABIP, the "Bill James" Projection system likes a bounce back), but a low walk, low power, bad defense, bad baserunning skill set doesn't exactly lead to attractive players.

21. Ryan Verdugo (Royals): Verdugo's one start in the Majors was an utter disaster, and he clearly has below average stuff and velocity. In the minors, his numbers are much more impressive as a reliever than they are as a starter. We will see if a move back to the bullpen will get him back to the Majors.

22. Ivan De Jesus (Red Sox): Now 25, De Jesus is no longer a shortstop, a below average defender, and has laughable hitting numbers away from Albuquerque. Other than a minor league lifer, I don't see much here.

23. Joel Carreno (Blue Jays): Both AAA and the Majors have proved to be extremely difficult for Carreno, but he is still just 25. As a right-handed reliever without overpowering stuff, one is probably better going off with relievers that are more of a sure thing like Cory Wade or Jim Miller. Or would could go the route of pitchers with better stuff like Fabio Martinez and David Carpenter.

Times to First: Part 13

1. Francisco Cervelli (Yankees): 6.68 (from 2nd to home)

2. Adam Rosales (Athletics): 4.29

3. Hank Conger (Angels): 4.59

4. Xavier Nady (Giants): 4.68

5. Luis Cruz (Dodgers): 4.35

6. Charlie Blackmon (Rockies): 4.35

7. Tony Campana (Cubs): 3.87

8. John Buck (Marlins): 4.51

9. Greg Dobbs (Marlins): 4.42

10. Yan Gomes (Blue Jays): 4.45

11. Kyle Seager (Mariners): 10.51 (first to home)

12. Matt Wieters (Orioles): 4.60

13. Stephen Vogt (Rays): 4.24

14. Andrew Romine (Angels): 4.18

15. Brett Jackson (Cubs): 6.99 (from 2nd to home)

16. Josh Vitters (Cubs): 4.49

17. Casper Wells (Mariners): 4.16

18. Brandon Moss (Athletics): 4.28.  10.54 (from 1st to home)

19. Geovany Soto (Rangers): 4.70

20. Seth Smith (Athletics): 4.23

All of the times:

How our Japanese Projections did

So as the season in Japan and America is about to wrap up, it is time to look back at the projections I used to evaluate players coming from the NPB to the MLB and vise versa. Here is the major pitcher projection I used, and here is the major pitching projection.

As Jeff Sullivan points out, success in Japan to America isn't always linear. These projections basically assumed they were. The off-season was a long time ago, and regular readers will notice that their has been some revolution of thought on this blog. Now, instead of using the projections, I would scout more (video of most players are online) and use NPB Tracker's pitch data to evaluate pitchers. I've done this in other posts when looking at players in the two major leagues in East Asia. I just wanted to see how the projections did for fun and of course, to see if they had any predictive value.

From Japan to U.S:

Tsuyoshi Wada: After a spring where it was apparent he wasn't healthy, he had Tommy John Surgery and he didn't pitch in the regular season.

Yu Darvish:
Projection: 2.42 ERA, .995 WHIP, 192 strikeouts, ~6.5 WAR, worth 20-24 million.
Actual: 3.90 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 221 strikeouts, 4.9 WAR, 22 War Dollars (according to Fangraphs). I basically projected him to be around Cliff Lee statistically, and in FIP and FIP -, he was right around Cliff Lee.

Norichika Aoki

Projection: .388 OBP, .95 PPG, 2.97 PAPP, ~ 3.64 WAR, worth ~ 5-11 Million

Actual: .355 OBP, 3.2 rWAR, 3.1 fWAR, 13.7 WAR Dollars (according to Fangraphs)

Wei-Yin Chen
Projection:  1.162 WHIP 3.02 ERA, 6.072 K/9IP, ~5 million
Actual: 1.27 WHIP, 4.11 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 7.26 K/9IP, 9.5 WAR Dollars (according to Fangraphs)

Hisashi Iwakuma
Projection: 1.29 WHIP, 3.86 ERA, 77 strikeouts, ~5-10 million
Actual:  1.28 WHIP, 3.32 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 94 strikeouts, 2.1 WAR dollars (according to Fangraphs)


Munenori Kawasaki
Projection: .311 OBP, .61 PPG, 3.5 PAPP, and -1.15 WAR
Actual: .255 OBP, -.4 rWAR

From U.S. to Japan:

John Bowker
Projection: .316 OBP, .06 WAR
Actual: .261 OBP

Lastings Milledge
Projection: .361 OBP, .789 OPS, 1.43 PPG, 2.22 PAPP, 2.13 WAR
Actual: .379 OBP, .865 OPS

Jorge Sosa:
Projection (I didn't do a projection at the time, this is a back dated using the same transfer rate): 4.11 ERA, 1.396 WHIP, 7.69 K/9IP
Actual: 1.91 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, 7.0 K/9IP

Kam Micolio:
Projection (back dated again): 4.22 ERA, 1.525 WHIP, 13.01 K/9IP
Actual: 2.89 ERA, .964 WHIP, 8.7 K/9IP

Esteban German:
Projection (back dated): .392 OBP
Actual: .347 OBP

Wily Mo Pena:
Projection (back dated): .336 OBP
Actual: .333 OBP

(Victor Diaz did horrible in a short stint in Japan this year, but had been in the Mexican League for the past two seasons after stints in the KBO and Independent ball. He hasn't been in the Majors since 2007, so those statistics seem pretty irrelevant. Brad Penny made one bad start before hurting his elbow and coming back to the States where he has been pitching terrible for the Giants.)

I think a big finding is that the projections really underestimated how friendly the league is for pitchers and how devastating it is for hitters (the exception is obviously Lastings Milledge, who outperformed the projection by a lot). This has really changed over the past two seasons, as I understand it, a baseball change has made the league even more pitcher friendly. Any future projection system (not that I will design one), has to take this into serious account. However, this only applies to runs, as the projections overestimated how prevelant strikeouts are in the NPB, as the ones that came to America usually had more strikeouts and the ones that went to Japan had less strikeouts than the projections said they would. Of course, none of this adjusts for parks and that makes it at least somewhat inadequate. My metric on the relation between WAR and salary is much different than Fangraphs' (it is much more conservative, as mine is about 3 million per win, while Fangrahps is about 5 million per win).

Times to first: Part 10

1. Ryan Doumit (Twins): 4.40

2. A.J. Pierzinski (White Sox): 4.63

3. Gordon Beckham (White Sox): 4.44

4. Nelson Cruz (Rangers): 4.48

5. Carlos Triunfel (Mariners): 4.12

6. Craig Gentry (Rangers): 11.05 (on a triple)

7. Josh Reddick (Athletics): 4.31

8. Daniel Descalso (Cardinals): 4.13

9. Starlin Castro (Cubs): 4.14

10. Pete Kozma (Cardinals): 4.12

11. Matt Holliday (Cardinals): 4.36

12. Chris Parmalee (Twins): 4.46

13. Curtis Granderson (Yankees): 4.16

14. Chris Davis (Orioles): 4.43

15. Jorge Alfaro (Rangers A): 4.18

16. Carlos Ruiz (Phillies): 4.66

17. Ian Desmond (Nationals): 4.27

18. Franklin Gutierrez (Mariners): 4.23

19. Kendrys Morales (Angels): 8.94 (on a double)

20. Jesus Montero (Mariners): 8.82 (on a double)

So here are the updated times:

My Own Draft

This is sort of a "fantasy" draft, I almost decided to post this at Fantasy CPR. Here I am getting my own 40 guys from the draft (I didn't get one from the Supplemental Round) in relative order (meaning I could only take 2 in one round if I skipped a round, I noted some of the rounds I skipped, but not all of them).
The big rule was that I had to have seen the player, either in person or on TV. This disqualifies almost all high school players, as I have mainly seen college games (even though I have watched video on a lot of high school prospects).
If a guy doesn't sign, I just lose him like a normal team. So here are the players' the schools they went to, their position, and who they were drafted by.

I don't know how often I will update this, but certainly I will after the signing deadline passes to denote which ones signed and which ones didn't. I'll also try to keep up with the signing bonuses to see how much my players cost compared to other teams. This post was mainly for fun, but as their career's go along, I will update how they are doing compared to other team's drafts.

Scouting Report on Neil Ramirez (Updated)

Neil Ramirez was ranked as the 5th best prospect for the Texas Rangers coming into 2012 by Baseball America. He was picked in the Supplemental First Round by the Rangers and signed for 1 million dollars. According to Baseball Cube, his best attribute is his strikeout ability, which is ranked as a 79 out of 100. He has really low control and versus power ratings.

He doesn't have crazy splits this year, with a .267 OBP against righties and .278 OBP against lefties (the SLG is .103 higher against lefties). He has a decent strike percentage of 64.68% (all numbers are not counting the start I detail below), but has really struggled keeping the ball on the ground with a 22/38 GO/AO ratio. In 25 AAA starts, he has a 4.06 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.44 K/9IP. This is really impressive once you consider that the 22 year old (will turn 23 years old later this month) pitches in the very hitter friendly AAA. According to our AAA (PCL edition) metric, this is projected to be a 3.59 ERA in the big leagues.

I watched him on Sunday May 13th 2012 against the Tacoma Rainiers (Seattle Mariners' AAA). The Rainiers have a weak PCL lineup. To give you an idea of just how weak it is, Carlos Triunfel was batting 3rd. Triunfel has been extremely disappointing as a prospect, with a .697 career MiLB OPS. On the under hand, he definitely was getting squeezed by the umpire.

His curveball was ranked the best in the organization by Baseball America in 2007. I really saw him go to it when it looked like he was in trouble early on. Most of the time his curveball didn't get as low as you would like and stayed up. When it did get down, it was clearly his best pitch. It wasn't a big looping curve, but it had good speed differential.
He can throw all his breaking pitches for strikes. Especially his changeup. He threw one changeup on a 3-1 for a swinging strike in the 2nd against Savastano. It doesn't have a lot of movement, so it is all about speed differential and just making the hitter guess. It is certainly not a Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez "here is my changeup, and you can't hit it" change, but few of them are. It is a serviceable pitch.
The breaking stuff induced a lot of weak pop-outs, 4 in 3 innings (2 in 1st, 1 each in the 2nd and 3rd). His fastball was in the low to mid 90s and he showed a lot of promise with it, commanding it on both sides of the plate and both up and down.
He definitely had some hard downward movement. His fastball had real sink when it was kept low, almost like he has a separate sinker. His velocity did show off, as a lot of hitters were late on the fastball early. He was really fastball happy, and I think to a detriment. I thought he should have thrown more curveballs. He gave up a double on a fastball down the middle and really started to have major control problems in the 3rd (and he got no help from his defense, I felt bad that the left side of his infield was Matt Kata and Tommy Mendonca. The Detroit Tigers think that is a dreadful defensive infield). With the bases loaded, he threw a fastball up and in to fastball up and in hitter Luis Jimenez, and predictably, he hit a grand slam. Whether this is simply a lack of scouting report or just awful command one can't be real sure, but it was not pretty. Overall, his fastball isn't a "put away" pitch, even though it seems he wanted it to be. He had some really wild fastballs up high, which might be a product of an inconsistent release point. He hit a batter in the 4th, and there was definitely a regression from the first time he went through the lineup to the 2nd time. However, he still got some swings and misses, which I thought was very encouraging.

Overall, he has a very simple delivery, with no real deception but no real mechanical flaws or major injury risks (although our understanding of pitching mechanics are not very good). He displayed what I thought was mid rotation stuff, but he looks really far from polished and is clearly not ready for the big leagues yet. The promise is there, which I thought was magnified when he made Johan Limonta (to be fair, a player with no big league future or potential) look really silly on his fastball/changeup combo. He threw too many pitches in the middle of the plate, and even with decent (not great) movement on his pitches, it is just not a recipe for success. Whether Ramirez lives up to his stuff or not will depend on location, like most pitchers.

Update: I saw Ramirez again in Round Rock against the Sacramento River Cats (Oakland A's AAA). Here is some poorly done video (by my brother Daniel):

 He was throwing 90-92 MPH, and had real control problems early. He got better as game went on. He was nasty when he hit the corners with the fastball and curve. He gave up a homer that was a typical PCL homer, it didn't appear to be hit hard and it just carried. Jason Cole of Lone Star Dugout told me (on the twitter machine) that he has had a really odd season, with times where he has had excellent command and then times where he has had no command. I saw both on Thursday May 24th 2012.

Some other notes from the game:
Michael Taylor of the A's is an absolute monster as far as size goes. He takes a huge hack, but the bat speed is pretty slow and he swings and misses a lot. He seems to have a decent eye (he walked when Neil Ramirez was walking everyone and then struck out when Ramirez was striking out everyone).

A.J. Griffin started for the Rivercats and he was 88-89 MPH with a 78-79 curve and then a slow curve/change that got a couple of 68 MPH readings. The stuff doesn't really match his minor league strikeout totals. He had a couple of bad luck plays in the first, followed by a good fielding play. Matt Kata of all people took him all the way to the wall later in the game.

Tyler Tufts for Round Rock has an overhand delivery with a little bit of tail on a 87-91 MPH fastball (Cole notes that he was hitting 93-95 earlier this year). He has an 80 MPH curve, and kept all 3 balls in the infield.

Pedro Figueroa is a lefty that was throwing 90-93 MPH out of the bullpen for Sacramento.

Tanner Scheppers of Round Rock was throwing 95-97 MPH, and hit 98 MPH twice. He hung the 82 MPH slider the first time he threw it and gave up a single, but then got a double play. He got a nasty swing and miss in the last at-bat on the slider, and then got a called strike 3 to the end the game.

The John Jaso Trade

The Rays have traded John Jaso to the Mariners for Josh Lueke and a player to be named later (or cash). Jaso had a .2 WAR in 2011, and 2.4 career WAR in 687 PA. This would be about a 2.1 WAR in 600 PA (a full season, although a catcher would probably have much less). Jaso is not even arbitration eligible and should make minimum salary. He has a -.8 D-WAR, and well below average Range Factor at 6.4. Offensively, he has a .340 OBP, 99 OPS +, and 1.725 O4S. He has done this despite having a .266 BABIP, even though he is an average line drive and flyball hitter. It is not crazy to suggest he is due for some BABIP luck or at least normalcy. His Secondary Average is pretty poor at .266, and he has an ISO of just .119. His offensive winning percentage is .466, with 4.3 Runs created per game. He is an under average home run hitter at 1.5% and hits extra base hits at a low percentage as well. He is a above average walker, at 12.2%, a very solid number along with a good PPS of 98.4. The Rays received Josh Lueke. Before we can look at Lueke's statistics, I have to provide a disclaimer. Lueke was accused of rape in 2009, it appears that is basically over and he won't be serving any kind of time for it, but it is still a question an organization must ask. Should an organization acquire players with criminal pasts? How scared should they be that the player will repeat offend? Or is it a case by case basis? I don't really know the answer to it, and this is a baseball statistics blog, so you probably don't care what my opinion is anyway. So now on to the fun stuff: what kind of pitcher is Lueke? He pitched in the Majors for the first time in 2011, appearing in 25 games and had a -.4 WAR. He had a bad PE of 2.15, but his adjusted PE was -.67, pretty solid. His TR wasn't really impressive at 8.27, but his SIERA was 3.58. For what it's worth, Bill James protections have him with a -2.8 PE next year, which would make him not quite an elite reliever, but a very good one. In his AAA career, he has pitched exclusively in the PCL, a much more hitter friendly league than the International League. There he had a -2.24 PE, or an expected PE of .29, unimpressive for a reliever. However, with the numbers being PCL, you have to argue that his expected numbers should be better than that. One could also dismiss the statistics as small sample size, as it is just under 60 innings. Either way, I think a lot of this trade is going to depend on the Player to be named later. Jaso is a player who can have a 2 WAR season on minimum salary, and as solid of a reliever as Lueke should be, it is not extremely likely he will rack up that kind of WAR. This doesn't  mention the factor of the criminal record, which I don't know how to measure (there is a reason I haven't written a Carlos Zambrano article). At least initially, I would say the edge goes to the Mariners.

Trying to establish a college metric

There are about 350 players in the Majors that played Division 1 College Baseball. As college baseball drafting has become more important in the past decade (thanks to things like Moneyball), it seems crucial to develop a metric to measure the difference between Division 1 and the Major Leagues. I used Baseball Cube for the statistics, and they did not have most college stats before 2000, which is fine (I could have found them elsewhere), because we can stick to basically a decade of college baseball. I also did not include players that had a small number of at-bats at either the Majors or College. I excluded Rickie Weeks because his crazy numbers (3.9 PPG, .94 ABPP) would have skewed the data, and if anyone puts up those kinds of stats in college, of course you draft them. Anyone else missed is due to human error.
Alex Avila: In College: 1.95 ABPP (same as PAPP except using ABs instead of PAs for convenience purposes), 1.92 PPG, and 947 OPS. In Majors: 2.2 ABPP, .96 PPG, 815 OPS.
Matt Downs: In College: 2.25 ABPP, 1.7 PPG,and 822 OPS. In Majors: 2.68 ABPP, .65 PPG, and 741 OPS.
Trevor Crowe: In College: 1.75 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1016 OPS. In Majors: 2.85 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 625 OPS
Nick Hundley: In College: 1.87 ABPP, 1.8 PPG, and 1004 OPS. In Majors: 2.71 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 734 OPS
Travis Buck: In College: 1.74 ABPP, 2.2 PPG, and 981 OPS. In Majors: 2.65 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 727 OPS.
Brooks Conrad: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 928 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .54 PPG, and 733 OPS.
Ike Davis: In College: 1.91 ABPP, 2.38 PPG, and 1015 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.19 PPG, and 817 OPS
Andre Ethier: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 1035 OPS. In Majors: 2.28 ABPP, 1.16 PPG, and 843 OPS.
Dustin Pedroia: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 2.1 PPG, and 1010 OPS. In Majors: 2.17 ABPP, 1.37 PPG, and 837 OPS
Brett Wallace: In College: 1.5 ABPP, 2.71 PPG, and 1197OPS. In Majors: 2.82 ABPP, .61 PPG, and 677 OPS.
Craig Gentry: In College: 2.09 ABPP, 1.57 PPG, and 846 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .75 PPG, and 620 OPS. 

David Murphy: In College: 1.89 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 967 OPS. In Majors: 2.37 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 786 OPS
Kelly Shoppach: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 2 PPG, and 1047 OPS. In Majors: 2.71 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 732 OPS.
Nolan Reimold: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 1.96 PPG, and 1127 OPS. In Majors: 2.322 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 779 OPS
Brent Morel: In College: 2.28 ABPP, 1.65 PPG, and 892 OPS. In Majors: 3.03 ABPP, .82 PPG, and 657 OPS.
Kurt Suzuki: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 1.88 PPG, and 1090 OPS. In Majors: 2.78 ABPP, .99 PPG, and 706 OPS
Justin Turner: In College: 2.2 ABPP, 1.65 PPG, and 823 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, .85 PPG, and 666 OPS
John Baker: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.31 PPG, and 939 OPS. In Majors: 2.4 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 757 OPS.
Brennan Boesch: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 936 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, 1.16 PPG, and 766 OPS.
Allen Craig: In College 2.11 ABPP, 1.56 PPG, and 867 OPS. In Majors: 2.34 ABPP, 1.03 PPG, and 842 OPS.
Conor Jackson: In College 1.71 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 1031 OPS. Majors: 2.38 ABPP, 1.01 PPG, and 757 OPS.
Xavier Nady: In College: 1.7 ABPP,  2.55 PPG, and 1074 OPS. Majors: 2.67 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 766 OPS
Tony Campana: In College: 1.84 ABPP, 1.97 PPG, and 784 OPS. Majors: 2.1 ABPP, .58 PPG, and 603 OPS.
Kevin Youkilis: In College: 1.19 ABPP, 3.14 PPG, and 1264 OPS. Majors: 2.07 ABPP, 1.4 PPG, and 883 OPS.
Jeff Baker: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 2.56 PPG, and 1048 OPS. In Majors: 2.63 ABPP, .78 PPG, and 758 OPS
Brett Gardner: In College: 1.64 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 963 OPS. In Majors: 2.08 ABPP, 1.14 PPG, and 721 OPS
Brian Bixler: In College: 1.65 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 1024 OPS. In Majors: 3.79 ABPP, .29 PPG, and 495 OPS.
Mark Ellis: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 914 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.05 PPG, and 728 OPS.
Matt LaPorta: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 2.25 PPG, and 1140 OPS. In Majors: 2.75 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 701 OPS
David Ross: In College: 2.05 ABPP, 1.41 PPG, and 916 OPS. In Majors: 2.44 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 768 OPS.
Stephen Drew: In College: 1.54 ABPP, 2.91 PPG, and 1177 OPS. In Majors: 2.54 ABPP, 1.09 PPG, and 773 OPS
Buster Posey: In College: 1.6 ABPP, 2.41 PPG, and 1113 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, 1.18 PPG, and 815 OPS
Casey McGehee: In College: 2.16 ABPP, 1.59 PPG, and 883 OPS. In Majors: 2.63 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 746 OPS.
Gordon Beckham: In College: 2.29 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 1048 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, .99 PPG, and 704 OPS.
Jeff Keppinger: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1074 OPS. In Majors: 2.73 ABPP, .85 PPG, and 720 OPS
Mark Teixeira: In College: 1.21 ABPP, 3.26 PPG, and 1319 OPS. In Majors: 2.10 ABPP, 1.62 PPG, and 904 OPS.
Matt Wieters: In College: 1.58 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1071 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 743 OPS.
Jason Bay: In College: 1.43 ABPP, 2.6 PPG, and 1150 OPS. In Majors: 2.06 ABPP, 1.48 PPG, and 863 OPS
Michael Bourn: In College: 1.67 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 802 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 694 OPS.
Rob Johnson: In College: 2.22 ABPP, 1.75 PPG and 868 OPS. In Majors: 3.17 ABPP, .57 PPG, and 573 OPS.
Chris Snyder: 1.68 ABPP, 2.04 PPG and 1035 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, .87 PPG, and 727 OPS.
Daniel Murphy: 1.91 ABPP, 1.64 PPG, and 917 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .93 PPG, and 784 OPS
Emmanuel Burris: 1.83 ABPP, 1.91 PPG, and 797 OPS. In Majors: 2.74 ABPP, .64 PPG, 592 OPS.
Danny Espinosa: In College: 2.32 ABPP, 1.49 PPG, and 850 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.15 PPG, and 735 OPS.
Evan Longoria: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.56 PPG and 924 OPS. In Majors: 2.13 ABPP, 1.58 PPG, and 874 OPS.
Troy Tulowitzki: In College: 2.33 ABPP, 1.58 PPG and 873 OPS. In Majors: 2.19 ABPP, 1.51 PPG, and 869 OPS
Jonathan Lucroy: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.98 PPG and 1028 OPS. In Majors: 2.83 ABPP, .83 PPG and 674 OPS
Aaron Hill: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 2.14 PPG, and 1007 OPS. In Majors: 2.74 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 737 OPS.
Dan Uggla: In College: 1.74 ABPP, 2.14 PPG, and 1041 OPS. In Majors: 2.31 ABPP, 1.43 PPG, and 824 OPS
Ryan Braun: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.75 PPG, and 1121 OPS. In Majors: 2.01 ABPP, 1.78 PPG, and 933 OPS
Jon Jay: In College: 1.66 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 996 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, .72 PPG and 773 OPS
Gaby Sanchez: In College: 2.12 ABPP, 1.94 PPG, and 881 OPS. In Majors: 2.36 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 786 OPS.
Danny Valencia: In College: 2.19 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 864 OPS. In Majors: 2.77 ABPP, .97 PPG, 720 OPS
Jemile Weeks: In College: 1.76 ABPP, 2.15 PPG, and 1000 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 761 OPS.
Chris Getz: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 1.72 PPG, and 877 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, .86 PPG, and 622 OPS.
Michael McKenry: In College: 1.85 ABPP, 1.86 PPG, and 1016 OPS. In Majors: 3.3 ABPP, .47 PPG, and 577 OPS.
Mitch Moreland: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 955 OPS. In Majors: 2.46 ABPP, 1.03 PPG, and 758 OPS.
Craig Tatum: In College: 2.4 ABPP, 1.64 PPG, and 859 OPS. In Majors: 3.06 ABPP, .46 PPG and 554 OPS
Ian Kinsler: In College: 1.98 ABPP, 1.78 PPG, and 849 OPS. In Majors: 2.12 ABPP, 1.57 PPG, and 824 OPS
Alex Gordon: In College: 1.5 ABPP, 2.4 PPG, and 1140 OPS. In Majors: 2.38 ABPP, 1.18 PPG and 777 OPS
Chris Gimenez: In College: 2 ABPP, 1.77 PPG, and 1061 OPS. In Majors: 2.92 ABPP, .53 PPG, and 551 OPS
Brett Hayes: In College 2.1 ABPP, 1.99 PPG, and 903 OPS. In Majors: 2.95 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 701 OPS.
Dustin Ackley: In College: 1.54 ABPP, 2.45 PPG, and 1137 OPS. In Majors: 2.33 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 766 OPS.
Chris Iannetta: In College: 1.9 ABPP, 1.89 PPG, and 971 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.10 PPG, and 788 OPS.
Kyle Seager: In College: 1.91 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 968 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .77 PPG, and 691 OPS.
Nick Swisher: In College: 1.57 ABPP, 2.11 PPG, and 1064 OPS. In Majors: 2.16 ABPP, 1.3 PPG, and 826 OPS.
Jason Bartlett: In College: 2.29 ABPP, 1.54 PPG, and 776 OPS. In Majors: 2.51 ABPP, 1 PPG and 710 OPS.
Greg Dobbs: In College: 1.7 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 1145 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 713 OPS
Luke Scott: In College: 1.57 ABPP, 2.22 PPG and 1095 OPS. In Majors: 2.26 ABPP, 1.1 PPG, and 843 OPS.
Chris Coghlan: In College: 1.94 ABPP, 1.9 PPG, and 899 OPS. In Majors: 2.47 ABPP, 1.12 PPG, and 764 OPS.
Alex Presley: In College: 2.17 ABPP, 1.49 PPG, and 880 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, .89 PPG, and 784 OPS.
Seth Smith: In College: 2.02 ABPP, 1.59 PPG, and 883 OPS. In Majors: 2.29 ABPP, .92 PPG and 833 OPS.
Matt Tolbert: In College: 2.26 ABPP, 1.29 PPG, and 758 OPS. In Majors: 3.01 ABPP, .61 PPG, and 607 OPS.
Darwin Barney: In College: 2.06 ABPP, 1.73 PPG, and 803 OPS. In Majors: 3.01 ABPP, .77 PPG, and 656 OPS.
Jacoby Ellsbury: In College: 1.66 ABPP, 2.16 PPG, and 985 OPS. In Majors: 2.13 ABPP, 1.58 PPG, and 807 OPS.
Eric Thames: In College: 1.78 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1030 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, 1.15 PPG, and 769 OPS
Danny Worth: In College: 2.42 ABPP, 1.39 PPG, and 803 OPS. In Majors: 3.11 ABPP, .43 PPG, and 648 OPS
Will Venable: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.96 PPG, and 906 OPS. In Majors: 2.37 ABPP, 1.08 PPG and 731 OPS
Mark Teahen: In College: 1.72 ABPP, 1.6 PPG, and 980 OPS. In Majors: 2.58 ABPP, 1 PPG, and 736 OPS
Tony Gwynn Jr. In College: 1.94 ABPP, 1.9 PPG, and 843 OPS. In Majors: 2.54 ABPP, .59 PPG, and 643 OPS
David Freese: In College: 1.71 ABPP, 2.4 PPG, and 1072 OPS. In Majors: 2.5 ABPP, 1.05 PPG, and 780 OPS.
Adam Lind: In College: 1.88 ABPP, 2.09 PPG, and 1039 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, 1.25 PPG, and 782 OPS
Steve Pearce: In College 1.82 ABPP, 2.29 PPG, and 1098 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .63 PPG, and 668 OPS
Landon Powell: In College: 1.9 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 956 OPS. In Majors: 2.95 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 612 OPS
Justin Smoak: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 2.35 PPG, and 1105 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, .94 PPG, and 701 OPS
Chris Carter: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 1.4 PPG, and 951 OPS. In Majors: 2.84 ABPP, .47 PPG, and 689 OPS
Jason Castro: In College: 2.13 ABPP, 1.5 PPG, and 857 OPS. In Majors: 3.05 ABPP, .54 PPG, 573 OPS.
Sam Fuld: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 874 OPS. In Majors: 2.45 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 685 OPS
Jed Lowrie: In College: 1.77 ABPP, 1.97 PPG, and 994 OPS. In Majors: 2.58 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 732 OPS
John Mayberry: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 1.84 PPG, and 908 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .92 PPG, and 846 OPS
Carlos Quentin: In College: 1.95 ABPP, 2.08 PPG, and 1004 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, 1.37 PPG, and 836 OPS
Chris Johnson: In College: 1.88 ABPP, 2 PPG, and 1030 OPS. In Majors: 2.91 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 725 OPS.
J.P. Arencibia: In College: 2.02 ABPP, 1.98 PPG, and 965 OPS. In Majors: 2.9 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 706 OPS.
Chase Headley: In College: 1.61 ABPP, 1.7 PPG, and 1024 OPS. In Majors: 2.42 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 735 OPS.
 Omar Quintanilla: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 915 OPS. In Majors: 3.39 ABPP, .45 PPG, and 552 OPS.
Drew Stubbs: In College: 1.76 ABPP, 2.2 PPG, and 923 OPS. In Majors: 2.3 ABPP, 1.35 PPG, and 731 OPS.
Cliff Pennington: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 1.87 PPG, and 899 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .92 PPG, and 695 OPS.
Justin Ruggiano: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.71 PPG, and 897 OPS. In Majors: 3.2 ABPP, .55 PPG, and 621 OPS.
Mitch Maier: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.54 PPG, and 1118 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, .68 PPG, and 678 OPS.
Casper Wells: In College: 1.86 ABPP, 2.1 PPG, and 1106 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .81 PPG, and 801 OPS.
Brian Bogusevic: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.72 PPG, and 896 OPS. In Majors:2.53 ABPP, .51 PPG, and 767 OPS.
Daniel Delscalso: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.63 PPG, and 932 OPS. In Majors: 2.73 ABPP, .48 PPG, and 683 OPS
Skip Schumaker: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 1.61 PPG, and 914 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .75 PPG, 724 OPS.
Ryan Spilborghs: In College: 1.78 ABPP, 2.02 PPG, and 960 OPS. In Majors: 2.4 ABPP, .83 PPG, and 768 OPS
Drew Butera: In College: 2.21 ABPP, 1.39 PPG, and 800 OPS. In Majors: 4.37 ABPP, .5 PPG, and 481 OPS
Brandon Crawford: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 1.84 PPG, and 891 OPS. In Majors: 3.06 ABPP, .71 PPG, and 584 OPS
Ben Francisco: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 903 OPS. In Majors: 2.51 ABPP, .93 PPG, and 762 OPS.
Chase Utley: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 2.62 PPG, and 1039 OPS. In Majors: 2.12 ABPP, 1.55 PPG, and 882 OPS.
Lucus Duda: In College: 2.23 ABPP, 1.18 PPG, and 784 OPS. In Majors: 2.42 ABPP, .98 PPG, and 815 OPS.
Hunter Pence: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.93 PPG, and 1006 OPS. In Majors: 2.39 ABPP, 1.33 PPG, and 828 OPS
Ryan Roberts: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.41 PPG, and 1182 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 748 OPS
Scott Sizemore:  In College: 1.86 ABPP, 2.04 PPG, and 948 OPS. In Majors: 2.48 ABPP, 1 PPG, and 711 OPS.
Mark Reynolds: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 2.07 PPG, and 900 OPS. In Majors: 2.25 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 815 OPS.
Ryan Zimmerman: In College: 2.1 ABPP, 1.76 PPG, and 942 OPS. In Majors: 2.31 ABPP, 1.35 PPG, and 834 OPS.
Brent Lillibridge: In College: 1.72 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 1028 OPS. In Majors: 2.78 ABPP, .72 PPG, and 671 OPS.
Adam Rosales: In College: 1.89 ABPP, 1.75 PPG, and 875 OPS. In Majors: 2.98 ABPP, .65 PPG, and 630 OPS.
Andy Dirks: In College: 1.67 ABPP, 2.22 PPG, and 970 OPS. In Majors: 2.88 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 703 OPS.
The 117 players averaged a 1.87 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 982 OPS in College. In the Majors: 2.59 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 732 OPS. On average, players add .72 to their ABPP and lose -1.06 PPG and .250 from their OPS from Division 1 to the Majors. I will use this metric to grade current college players.