Ranking the DFA'd

Yesterday was a big day in baseball, as teams had to decide which prospects they wanted to protect from the Rule 5 draft. This of course leads to players being taken off the 40 man roster to make room. According to MLBDepthCharts, 23 players were DFA'd yesterday. Here is my rankings of the players along with a paragraph on each of them:

1.Adam Moore (Royals): He played in just 4 big league games and just 72 overall in the Majors at age 28 (going to turn 29 in May). They haven't gone real well, and he has really struggled with injuries. Still, he has hit well in the minors, and is still somewhat interesting as 3rd catcher. Probably borderline on whether he is worth claiming, definite minor league contract guy.

2. Scott Cousins (Mariners): Despite having some extreme offensive and contact problems in the Majors, two teams have already thought he was worth enough to claim him (and then of course designated him). The tools make him interesting enough to teams that he will get his chance. Another borderline case, the two DFA's probably makes him a guy that you wouldn't claim. MiLB contract and invite to Spring Training makes sense. What he becomes relies on contact, but he is a possibility as a 5th outfielder (though the skill sets of Felix Pie and Darren Ford, both signed to MiLB contracts by the Pirates, are slightly more attractive).

3. Brayan Pena (Royals): long time back-up catcher, epitome of a replacement player. He is going to turn 31 years old to start the 2012 season. I can't imagine anyone claiming him unless they are just absolutely desperate for catching (he has already played for the Braves in the past, just saying). It seems like he is worth a minor league contract and invite to spring training as a AAA catcher/emergency big leaguer.

4. Derrick Robinson (Royals): Despite posting mainly good peripherals, the 25 year old has never hit very well in the minors. He plays a good centerfield according to some data and he can run really well. The 4th rounder at least has the tools to be an extra outfielder, but it just isn't something the Royals need right now.

5. Chris Volstad (Royals): A frustrating back of the rotation starter, the sinker baller has shown some potential, but doesn't miss many bats, and walks too many batters for his skill set. He has still been an above replacement pitcher and could perhaps eat up some emergency innings (a good infield would help him).

6. Cory Burns (Padres): Burns is interesting because he is 25 and put up some sparkling numbers in the PCL this year. The thing that makes him uninteresting is his well below average velocity and the fact that he is a right-handed reliever. He instead relies mainly on a changeup. It is a good changeup, and it has helped him get both lefties and righties out. We will see if it helps him get out hitters on a consistent basis in the Majors.

7. Zach Stewart (Red Sox): A product of a few different trades, Stewart has found the Majors very rough. In his 103 innings, he has a ridiculous FIP of 7.55 thanks to a low strikeout rate (but low walk rate) and over 2 home runs per 9 innings. With that said, he has a good ground-ball rate (50%), so his SIERA is 3.93, pretty solid. What Stewart actually is obviously somewhere in the middle. He has a mix of pitches  that he can throw in virtually any count (his tendencies aren't very predictable) but he has below average velocity. There is a chance he could be a back of the rotation guy, getting a lot of ground-balls and giving up a lot of contact. He is the kind of guy that could benefit from a pitcher ballpark more than others.

8. Mike McCoy (Blue Jays): McCoy cannot hit at all, but he has played in 170 big league games and has shown that he is a good fielder making him a capable utility man in the minors. He is a great example of why AAA Las Vegas numbers mean nothing, as he has clobbered the ball there, only to be one of the worse hitters in the Majors.

9. Cory Wade (Blue Jays): Wade is an interesting guy as a below average velocity reliever that has had some MLB success. A bounce back season from 2012 is likely, but he isn't a guy with high value.

10. Jim Miller (Athletics): DIPs hasn't been impressed with his short (63.1 innings) MLB career, but the veteran right-handed reliever has decent velocity and solid numbers in AAA. The question is not whether or not he can miss bats, it is whether or not he can limit walks.

11. Vin Mazzarro (Royals): Despite decent to above average velocity, Mazzaro has never really put it together. In now 286 big league innings, he has not proved much at all except that he can be an above replacement pitcher. Still just 26, he relies on basically just his fastball and slider, never really finding a 3rd pitch to get hitters out with. Perhaps a move to the bullpen would help, but it didn't work so well in 2012.

12. Bryan Lahair (Cubs): He turned out to be the AAAA hitter that Theo and company insisted didn't exist after a big start. Several Japanese teams have been looking at him, and the rumor is that he was DFA'd so he could pursue opportunities there (it appears that he has already signed with the Softbank Hawks for 950,000). The 10 % BB/30 % K MLB player seems to work over there for a few different reasons, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him have success there. He is probably better than Wily Mo Pena, as at least statistically he is an above average MLB hitter (obviously the lack of other skills get in the way).

13. Chone Figgins (Mariners): I honestly had no idea where to rank him. He has been so terrible over the last 2 seasons (and he wasn't good the year before), and the chances of him getting better at age 35 (before the start of the season) are slim to none. He doesn't quite have the speed he used to, and his defense has been pretty poor (it doesn't look he can be a traditional utility player), and his bat has absolutely disappeared. Still, he has had a really solid career and some team will bring him in on a MiLB deal and see if he can resurrect himself.

14. Sandy Rosario (Red Sox): His numbers may not be eye popping in the minors, but they aren't bad, and he has a good fastball that averages almost 95 MPH along with a slider and change that he throws quite a bit. He is already 27, and despite his short sample in the Majors, he could be a guy that eventually sticks in a MLB bullpen.

15. Fabio Martinez (Indians): Martinez has a big time fastball, but he has really struggled with command. He is still just 23, but hasn't yet reached AA. This is why he isn't worth a 40 man spot yet, as he simply isn't ready. However, there is more potential here than just about anyone on this list.

16. Clint Robinson (Royals): Somewhat of a classic AAA slugger, Robinson has put up some eye popping numbers in the minors. Despite playing in a hitter friendly park in Omaha the last two years, he has virtually no home/road splits and he has walked more than he has struck out against righties. The decent strikeout rate makes him interesting, but it is hard to tell with these sluggers sometimes. He could be a bench bat, a AAAA slugger forever, or even go to the NPB.

17. Brandon Hicks (Athletics): Once considered somewhat of a prospect, Hicks hasn't really hit since he got to AA and his time in the Majors has been a disaster. However, he still can play shortstop, and evidently a pretty good one. There is always some value there.

18. Mike McDade (Blue Jays): Despite not turning 24 until May of 2013, it is quite apparent that McDade is the traditional AAAA slugger. He provides no defensive value with that body type and the bat speed just isn't there. However, he has put up some monster numbers in AA and AAA, and at the very least can be brought in by a team to anchor the 1B/DH spot in AAA and be a bench bat in an absolute emergency.

19. David Carpenter (Red Sox): While Carpenter does have an above average fastball, it has lead to no MLB success. He gets a fair amount of strikeouts, but too many walks and not enough grounders have lead to his demise. His sample sizes in the minors are too small to really glean anything from, but he doesn't belong on a 40 man roster but does at least belong in a MLB camp (if just for the fastball).

20. Danny Valencia (Red Sox): Valencia has had some success in the Majors, he was good in 2010 and above replacement in 2011, but the value is all tied to his bat and he was a mess in 2012. He seems really reliant on BABIP, which is no way to make a living. Perhaps he has some kind of rebound (it's hard to predict BABIP, the "Bill James" Projection system likes a bounce back), but a low walk, low power, bad defense, bad baserunning skill set doesn't exactly lead to attractive players.

21. Ryan Verdugo (Royals): Verdugo's one start in the Majors was an utter disaster, and he clearly has below average stuff and velocity. In the minors, his numbers are much more impressive as a reliever than they are as a starter. We will see if a move back to the bullpen will get him back to the Majors.

22. Ivan De Jesus (Red Sox): Now 25, De Jesus is no longer a shortstop, a below average defender, and has laughable hitting numbers away from Albuquerque. Other than a minor league lifer, I don't see much here.

23. Joel Carreno (Blue Jays): Both AAA and the Majors have proved to be extremely difficult for Carreno, but he is still just 25. As a right-handed reliever without overpowering stuff, one is probably better going off with relievers that are more of a sure thing like Cory Wade or Jim Miller. Or would could go the route of pitchers with better stuff like Fabio Martinez and David Carpenter.

The Tyler Colvin-Ian Stewart Trade

The Cubs traded Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu to the Rockies for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers.

I have a write up on DJ LeMahieu already, and noted that his college statistics weren't impressive and thought it was interesting the Cubs drafted him in the first round anyway. He struggled in the small sample size in the Majors, and had just a .328 OBP in 58 AAA games.

Colvin has really struggled in 221 Major League games with a -.5 WAR, .274 OBP, and 84 OPS +. There are some positive things though, he has only had a .250 BABIP, one expects that to improve, has a decent Secondary Average of .294, and a very nice ISO of .207. While he doesn't really walk, he hits more extra base hits than average. One concerning thing is his lack of line drives, but his .447 Offensive Winning percentage and 4 Runs Created Per Game could improve. His defense has been spotty, he was good in 2011, but horrible in 2010.

Stewart had a terrible 2011 with a -1.2 WAR, but had a 1.3 WAR in 2010. Defensively, he has played under replacement level for the past 3 years. Offensively, it makes a lot of sense to throw out his 2011 season, as he just had 136 PAs, and a BABIP of .224. This is a pretty corrupted statistical sample. So what about 2010? He had a .338 OBP, 97 OPS +, and .308 BABIP. This was a much more reliable sample size (441 PA), and he had a .560 Offensive Winning Percentage and 5.2 Runs Created per Game. His Secondary Average and ISO are both solid, and he is an above average home run hitter and walker. Many don't like him because he strikes out a bunch, but I think strikeouts for hitters can be overrated.

Weathers is a minor league pitcher who hasn't pitched above AA. But in his minor league career, he has a -3.72 PE, all as a reliever. He looks to be far away, but he gets nearly 12 strikeouts per 9 innings. He does walk a whole lot of batters (he has a .190 BAA but has a WHIP of over 1.4), so in that sense he is sort of a Marmol type. He doesn't give up many HR/9IP, and he is a possible future closer option. I like this trade for the Cubs because I like Stewart over Colvin and Weathers over LeMahieu.

Should the Cubs trade Randy Wells?

Randy Wells had just a .6 WAR in 2011. However, he had a 2.27 WAR average over the past 3 years (his only 3 full years in the big leagues). He is arbitration eligible, and is projected to make about 2.25 million dollars. This would be a very good 1101 WASP. 2011 was not a very good year for Wells, as he had a 3.57 PE and 3.69 adjusted PE. He did this despite only having a .275 BABIP. He had a TR of just above 6.5, and struggled with the longball at 1.53 HR/9IP. In his career, he has a PE of 2.03 and TR of 8.79. Neither of those numbers are impressive, but he is a groundball pitcher that has a mediocre SIERA of 4.33. He is probably about a 3 or 4 starter in a rotation, but, at least according to the WAR he has been putting up, he is underpaid. The Bill James protections have him putting up a 1.83 PE in 2012, which may be a little kind, as it gave him more strikeouts that usual. Wells is basically an average pitcher that isn't very impressive, but not bad at all as his ERA - (97) and FIP - (102) show. I don't see him having a lot of trade value, and with the problems the Cubs have had with pitching, I don't see the reason for them trying to move him.

Will the Cubs trade Marmol?

Rumors are now swirling that the Cubs may consider trading closer Carlos Marmol. Marmol had a .9 WAR in 2011, with a WAR average over the past 3 years of 1.8. This is worth 5.4 million, but he is scheduled to make 7 million dollars in 2012. So certainly according to WAR, it is definitely time for the Cubs to move on. As one would expect for the type of pitcher he is, he registered a very good -4.65 PE, and an adjusted PE of -5.12 in 2011. In his career, his PE is -5.33, with an adjusted PE of -4.95. In 2011, his TR was 9.54, while it is 9.48 for his career. According to his career statistics, 2011 was a pretty good window, that is what you are going to get. The Bill James Projections don't give him quite the credit, but still have him at a -4.74 PE.

It is always nice to have a pitcher who misses bats, but Marmol has gotten too costly. Frequent readers of the blog know where I stand on this, bullpens should be built with relatively little money, with former starters and prospects. It simply doesn't make sense to give someone 7 million dollars to pitch 60 innings.

Looking back at the Hanley Ramirez trade and should there be another one

After the 2005 season, when Theo Epstein was in that contract dispute, the Marlins and Red Sox made a huge trade. Often considered the brain child of Larry Luchino, here is how the trade has panned out.

Red Sox Got:

Mike Lowell: 12.3 WAR 55.5 million 4512 WASP
Josh Beckett: 19.3 WAR 61.2 million 3171 WASP
Guillermo Mota: Never played for Red Sox, was involved in a complicated deal to Indians

Marlins Got:
Jesus Delgado: Threw 2 innings, 0 WAR
Harvey Garcia: .1 WAR in 8 innings $390,000
Anibal Sanchez: 10.9 WAR 6.1 million 562 WASP
Hanley Ramirez: 29.3 WAR 24.7 million 843 WASP

So the Marlins (has) racked up a 40.3 WAR from the trade, while the Red Sox registered a 31.6 WAR from the players they received. To add insult to Red Sox nation, the Red Sox had to spend 116.7 for that 31.6 WAR (3693 WASP, over the Halladay Standard), while the Marlins only had to spend 31.19 million, for an amazing 774 WASP.

Now for the question the Marlins front office today: Should they trade Hanley Ramirez?

Ramirez' salary is about to go up to 15 million dollars in 2011. Over the past 3 years, he has a 3.7 WAR average including an extremely frustrating .5 WAR season in 2011. This is worth 11.1 million according to the Halladay Standard. So certainly according to WAR, it is time to cut ties with Hanley for the Marlins. Ramirez has a career .380 OBP, but in 2011 it was just .333. His Slugging was also laughably low below career average at .379 (career average of .506) and a PPG of 1.41 (1.64). However, as one would expect, he suffered from a low BABIP at .275 (when his career BABIP is .339). He certainly didn't hit the ball as hard as he previously had, as his ISO was just .136 (his career average is .200), he hit an extra base hit just 6.8% of the time, and homered just 2.6% of the time (around league average, his career average is 3.6%). Certainly there was something wrong with Hanley in 2011, he wasn't the same player that he had been. So this leads to a bunch of hard questions like: What role did his injuries play? Will he recover from these injuries? Is he now more injure-prone? Is this just the new Hanley? Won't he actually be undervalued in the trade market because of 2011, making it smarter to just hang out to him and hope for the best? I don't know the answer to these questions, but at his salary, the Marlins have to at least shop Hanley. If they don't get a good offer, they can keep him, but moving him would probably be best (they probably should have done it at the deadline).

More Cubs: D.J. LeMahieu

As Theo Epstein takes the Cubs job, he has a lot of messes to clean up. He also has to make some decisions on some prospects in his system. One of them is D.J. LeMahieu. LeMahieu is currently struggling in the Arizona Fall League, but was a 2nd round pick by the Cubs in 2009. In 28 at-bats in the AFL, he has an OBP of just .290 (.540 OPS) with a grand total of 7 total bases. Things aren't all bad though, as his PPG is 1.42 for the Mesa Solar Sox. Against right-handers, he has just a .190 OBP, and as many strikeouts as walks and hits. His 3 minor league seasons haven't been impressive, but they are better, .353 OBP, .753 OPS, 2.78 PAPP, 1.16 PPG and a .980 fielding percentage. In 2011, he was brought up to the majors for 37 games and wasn't very good, posting a -.4 WAR. He walked just once (striking out 12 times) and had an OPS of 546, a laughable Secondary average of .050, isolated slugging of .033, .19 PPG, and 3.88 PAPP. Probably no one was less ready for the big leagues than LeMahieu was. His numbers in college (LSU) were solid, but not the over-impressive dominating statistics one would expect a 2nd round pick to have, a 1.66 PPG and 875 OPS. In hindsight, it is pretty easy to question draft picks, however, this is extremely easy to question. He still has some time (just 23), but there really isn't much to be optimistic about. There is a reason the Cubs are paying all that money for Theo.