Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The Tyler Colvin-Ian Stewart Trade

The Cubs traded Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu to the Rockies for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers.

I have a write up on DJ LeMahieu already, and noted that his college statistics weren't impressive and thought it was interesting the Cubs drafted him in the first round anyway. He struggled in the small sample size in the Majors, and had just a .328 OBP in 58 AAA games.

Colvin has really struggled in 221 Major League games with a -.5 WAR, .274 OBP, and 84 OPS +. There are some positive things though, he has only had a .250 BABIP, one expects that to improve, has a decent Secondary Average of .294, and a very nice ISO of .207. While he doesn't really walk, he hits more extra base hits than average. One concerning thing is his lack of line drives, but his .447 Offensive Winning percentage and 4 Runs Created Per Game could improve. His defense has been spotty, he was good in 2011, but horrible in 2010.

Stewart had a terrible 2011 with a -1.2 WAR, but had a 1.3 WAR in 2010. Defensively, he has played under replacement level for the past 3 years. Offensively, it makes a lot of sense to throw out his 2011 season, as he just had 136 PAs, and a BABIP of .224. This is a pretty corrupted statistical sample. So what about 2010? He had a .338 OBP, 97 OPS +, and .308 BABIP. This was a much more reliable sample size (441 PA), and he had a .560 Offensive Winning Percentage and 5.2 Runs Created per Game. His Secondary Average and ISO are both solid, and he is an above average home run hitter and walker. Many don't like him because he strikes out a bunch, but I think strikeouts for hitters can be overrated.

Weathers is a minor league pitcher who hasn't pitched above AA. But in his minor league career, he has a -3.72 PE, all as a reliever. He looks to be far away, but he gets nearly 12 strikeouts per 9 innings. He does walk a whole lot of batters (he has a .190 BAA but has a WHIP of over 1.4), so in that sense he is sort of a Marmol type. He doesn't give up many HR/9IP, and he is a possible future closer option. I like this trade for the Cubs because I like Stewart over Colvin and Weathers over LeMahieu.

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