Friday, December 23, 2011
Jason Marquis signs with the Twins
The Twins signed Jason Marquis to a 1 year 3 million dollar deal. At the end of the trade deadline, I wrote something kind of silly. I wrote that the trade for Jason Marquis by the Diamondbacks for minor leaguer Zack Walters was a pretty obvious win for the Diamondbacks. This turned out to be quite dumb, as Marquis had a -1 WAR before getting hurt with the Diamondbacks. Walters has never played about A ball, but has a .357 OBP and .807 OPS. When looking at Marquis statistics, there has obviously been some regression in his 12 year career. In the first 3 years of his career, he had strikeout rates of 6.6, 6.8, and 6.6 K/9 IP. The last 3 years have looked like this: 4.8, 4.8, 5.2 K/9 IP. This means that looking at his career numbers would be extremely misleading and pointless. So instead, lets look at his last 3 years. In that time, he has a 1.5 WAR, or .5 WAR a season. This is only worth half of the 3 million dollars the Twins are going to give him. His PE was a terrible 3.933, but he walks less batters than average, and throws less pitches per plate appearance than average. But his FIP - has been worse than league average over the last two years, and he had an average TR of 9.09 in 2011. He does get plenty of groundballs, and is spotty with homers, but his SIERA's over the last 3 years are 4.15, 4.76, and 4.61. 3 million dollars seems to be a lot of money for Jason Marquis.