Monday, December 12, 2011

The Ben Francisco trade

The Phillies traded Ben Francisco to the Blue Jays for Frank Gailey.

Francisco had a -.9 WAR in 2011, and a .2 WAR over the past 3 years, meaning he averaged less than .1 WAR a year. Despite this, he made over a million dollars in 2011. Offensively, he has a .332 OBP, 1.758 O4S, and 103 OPS +. This is with a Secondary Average of .276, and an Isolated Slugging of .171. These are average/decent numbers. It is interesting to note that there was a discrepancy between offensive WAR and offensive winning percentage. While WAR rated him as a replacement hitter (0 O-WAR), offensive winning percentage had him at .479, above replacement level of .320. Normally I would take WAR over the winning percentage statistic, but it is hard to call a .340 OBP and 93 OPS + (his 2011 numbers) replacement. He is a slightly above average home run hitter, and walks around league average (as well as seeing about as many pitches as average). There isn't much impressive about Francisco on offense, but he is about average. Defensively, he is pretty bad, with a below average range factor (although an above average fielding percentage). According to "runs saved" he cost the Phillies 11 runs on defense last season.

Frank Gailey is a 26 year old pitcher who has never pitched about AA, and he wasn't very good there with a 2.9 PE, and a 1.8 Adjusted PE as a reliever. He struggled big time with homers giving up 1.2 HR/9IP. However, he was very good at the lower levels, earning a -3.07 PE for his minor league career. Overall, he hasn't struggled with homers, and for the Phillies, they have to hope that the AA numbers were because of a small sample size (30 innings).

Not a huge trade here, the Blue Jays get an average hitter that is a poor fielder, while the Phillies get a nice minor league pitcher who is old (for the minors). For salary reasons, I give the Phillies a slight edge.

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