Tuesday, December 6, 2011
The Dodgers spend more money: Aaron Harang edition
I really thought the Dodgers were bankrupt. They seem to be the second biggest players in the Winter Meetings so far (behind the Marlins), now with a 2 year, $12 million dollar deal with starter Aaron Harang. Harang had a 1.9 WAR in the pitcher friendly Petco Park in 2011, worth 5.7 million dollars. So his 2011 season doesn't seem to be worth his 2012-2013 contract, especially when you factor in Petco Park. When looking over the past 3 years, things get worse, as he has averaged a .43 WAR (thanks to a horrible 2010 season in the very hitter friendly Cincinnati park). Of course, this is just worth 1.3 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard (and one would think even less to the "bankrupt" Dodgers). Harang had a 1.13 PE in 2011, with an adjusted PE of 1.66. These are not impressive numbers at all, and the help of Petco Park is further illuminated by his 119 FIP - and 4.25 SIERA. SIERA further highlights this as his was 4.40 in his terrible 2010 season, and his FIP - of 113. He basically pitched the same in 2010 and 2011, just different ballparks bred different results (a .338 BABIP as a Red didn't help his 2010 season). This is why Fangraphs actually gives him a higher WAR in 2010 than 2011. The Bill James Projections give him a 1.3 PE for 2012, and I think that is probably right, if not too kind. I really don't get what the Dodgers have been doing the past few weeks. Giving 12 million dollars to a barely above replacement pitcher at the down side of his career is really laughable. He is a flyball pitcher that gave up more than 1 HR/9IP with San Diego last year. That is a real problem, and the Dodgers have completely ignored it.