Matt Shoemaker Scouting Report

27 year old Angels' right-handed pitcher Matt Shoemaker made his MLB debut at the end of the 2013 season, making a start against the Seattle Mariners. He went 5 innings, getting all but four batters out (2 hits and 2 walks), with five strikeouts, no runs allowed, and a wild pitch. Clearly one start is not going to give us too much insight into Shoemaker statistically, especially against the Mariners, a below average offensive team. Shoemaker making that start is most likely a product of a weak Angels' system, with very few upper level pitching prospects to be able to fill in when their starters are injured or underperforming. Shoemaker has made 64 starts in the PCL, usually a sign, especially at his age, that he is going nowhere as a prospect. The PCL, especially in parks like Salt Lake's, is a pitchers' nightmare. However, while he was slightly better on the road, he didn't have big home/road splits. I figured the best way to deal with his stats in the PCL would be to use kwERA like we use to evaluate NPB pitchers in an extreme environment the other way. Shoemaker had a 3.94 kwERA in his time in the PCL, while league average in 2013 was 4.16, suggesting that, at least by strikeouts and walks (Shoemaker was a low walk, medium strikeout pitcher with a passable but not not impressive groundball rate), Shoemaker is a better pitcher than the run of the mill average PCL pitcher. Shoemaker is slightly older as well, just turning 27, with the average pitcher being about 26.6 years old in the league.

Of course, AAA statistics are less predictive for success in the MLB than velocity and pitches, so let's start the evaluation of his Pitch F/X data by looking at his spin and speed chart from the game against the Mariners (his only outing that has Pitch F/X data for his career), which should give us an idea of what he throws:

There seems to be four clusters of pitches, fastballs up top, changeups slower than that but with the same spin, the sliders with less spin and a little slower than the change, and three curveballs.

For another look, here is his spin set in a graph along with the rotation on his pitches:

This time the spin is the vertical axis while the rotation is the horizontal axis. We still see four clusters of pitches, but this seems to show, at least slightly better than the speed/spin chart, that Shoemaker is throwing two fastballs.

MLBAM has him throwing six different pitches, and three different fastballs if you count the cutter, and here is where he located them on average according to those automated tags (entire graph is strike zone):

For the most part, Shoemaker appears to be a glove side pitcher, only keeping his sinker on the arm side. Even his changeup drifts glove side, even though he keeps it down. In the minors, he had pretty large platoon splits, worse against lefties by over a run according to both FIP and SIERA. Shoemaker has a lot of moving parts in his delivery, accompanied with a lot of stop and go motions, but I think the actual time of release gives us a good idea why he is a glove side pitcher on average, having problems keeping his changeup away from lefties:

This is extremely messy, with his right leg working against his body, and his head leaning hard to the left. You can see why he would pull the ball so drastically, and this makes his low walk rates in the minors surprising.

Here is what his release points looked like according to the traditional Pitch F/X data, and there seems to be some inconsistency, particularly horizontally:

 Brooks Baseball uses 55 feet as the measure of estimating release points, arguing that it is more accurate than the 50 feet measure. When you look at Shoemaker from that distance, there are less stray marks in his release points, but they still show that he was inconsistent throughout the game:

Inconsistencies aside, here is where his average release point was by the 50 feet measure, along with the average location of his pitches:

Shoemaker seems to have at least back of the rotation stuff, without a plus fastball, but with one that he can run up over 92 MPH and average about 90-91, just short of league average. He seems to have the secondary pitches and the confidence to throw them to be a starter, even if none of them are plus pitches. However, control is what I would be worried about with Shoemaker. He has to be able to repeat his delivery and keep the ball away from lefties (excluding the cutter) to be a successful starter, and I am not sure he is going to be able to do that with his delivery. His fastball doesn't appear to good enough for it to be something he can rely on a lot out of the bullpen, so I don't think he would be a reliever of any impact. To me, Shoemaker looks like a pitcher that is an "up and down guy", a guy who has value as a spot starter, filling in at the MLB when needed, but spending most of the year in the AAA rotation, though perhaps he could be a long/low leverage reliever, something that isn't needed by the Angels if they decide to keep Jerome Williams.

Pitch F/X data from the Netherlands WBC Team

In Spring Training, the Netherlands World Baseball Classic team played against the Seattle Mariners in their spring training park. This means we got Pitch F/X data on the pitchers, so I thought it might at least be fun to look at the pitch data and see what the Netherlands pitchers were throwing.

Tom Stuifbergen is the only one that has experience in organized baseball, and has been in the Minnesota Twins' organization since 2007. Stuifbergen is a 24 year old right-hander listed at 255 pounds. He has just one appearance in AA, so he is a little behind as a prospect, excelling when he repeated A+. He has been a low walk, mediocre strikeout, low home run pitcher in his minor league career. Here is what his stuff looks like, via a spin and speed chart:

An acceptable fastball, along with probably a change and slider. He has a pretty standard release point, but it may have been a little more inconsistent than you would want.

Here are where he threw his pitches on average in his outing, based on the MLBAM tags:

He has to get the change and slider down a little more, and his fastball was extreme arm side, and probably was too high in the zone. He needs to get on top of the ball better than he did in the outing.

David Bergman is a 31 year old pitcher that has 94 career starts in the Dutch Major Leagues. We need to get some context statistically for the league (I don't have park factors for the league). We don't really know the talent level of the league, and just using the data from baseball reference, it seems to be a league that is incredibly unbalanced. One team went 34-7, and another team went 5-37 in 2012. Only 3 of the 8 teams were under .600, but they all won less than 20% of their games. So far in 2013, one team is 2-25, another is 23-3. As a league, over the past three seasons the average ERA has been 4.11, 5.05 Runs Per Game, and 3.53 FIP (homers are very rare, lot of walks, not many strikeouts comparitively). So we will use those numbers for comparing to league average. Bergman has numbers in the league since 2007, and has a career 42 ERA -, 47 R/G -, and 68 FIP -. In 2013, he has a 28 ERA -, .42 R/G-, and 50 FIP -. In other words, he has been really dominant in the league and is still on top of his game. He has a mediocre fastball, getting it up to just over 90 a couple of times, but mainly sitting at 85 MPH:

 It also loooks like he has a changeup, slider and curveball. His release point is relatively standard, perhaps a little more out and a little lower than the average right-hander:

Using the MLBAM tags, here are his average locations:

It seems that he had problems commanding the slider, but got the curve down, with a very high fastball on average. It is hard to imagine he would have success in a more competitive league with that high of a fastball with that little of velocity.

Kevin Heijstek is a 25 year old with data since 2007 in the Dutch Major Leagues. The 6-4 right-hander has a career 47 ERA -, 48 R/G -, and 76 FIP - in his career. In 2013, he has a 14 ERA - (not a typo), 19 ERA -, and 53 FIP -. His fastball didn't get up to the Bergman's, or even 90 MPH, but his average fastball might be a little bit better.

 

 He also seems to have curve, change, and slider. His release point is also further out than Bergman's, and not any higher:

 

The MLBAM tags says he throws only three different pitches:

In his outing, he did a better job of getting the fastball down than Bergman, but the change stayed up, and he located the curve like a slider.

Berry Van Driel is a 28 year old 6-6 right-hander with data since 2007 in the Dutch Major Leagues. He has worked mainly as a reliever with a career 59 ERA -, 62 R/G -, and 93 FIP -. So far in 2013, he has a 14 ERA -, 23 R/G -, and 53 FIP -. His fastball seems to be much better than Bergman or Heijstek:

His release point is very similar to Heijstek's, but was really inconsistent in his outing:

This seems to explain why his average strike zone looks pretty bad:

It sure doesn't look like he was finishing his delivery.

Johnny Balentina appears to actually be a position player in the Netherlands, at least that is the only Johnny Balentina I can find. He's a left-handed sidearmer:

He's also an extreme soft-tosser:

Really just two pitches, nothing over 83 MPH, fastball/curveball. The MLBAM tags called all his fastballs "changeups", but since he didn't throw anything harder, I just called them fastballs:

The "slider" designated by the MLBAM tags is probably a curveball. 

Here are the average locations of all pitches thrown for each of the 5 pitchers:

You can see that Berry Van Driel had his serious problems, and Stuifbergen was a little too high as well. Balentina was pretty standard for a lefty, while Hiejstek pitched low in the zone and glove side, with Bergman having a very standard right-handed pitcher location.

Times to First: Part 21

1. Jason Bay  7.79 (on a double)

2. Raul Ibanez (Mariners): 4.38

3. Tony Wolters (Indians): 4.14

4. Will Middlebrooks (Red Sox): 12.72 (on a triple)

5. Jason Bourgeois (Rays): 3.84 (on a bunt)

6. Travis Jankowski (Padres): 4.2

7. Emmanuel Burris (Reds): 4.09

8. Joey Butler (Rangers): 6.87 (2nd to home)

9. Michael McKenry (Pirates): 4.41

10. Adam Greenburg (Orioles/Free Agent): 4.15

11. Josh Harrison (Pirates): 4.19

12. Chris Coghlan (Marlins): 7.87 (on a double)

13. Felix Perez (Reds): 11.76 (on a triple)

14. Ryan Howard (Phillies): 4.59

15. Geraldo Parra (Diamondbacks): 4.19

16. Jason Kubel (Diamondbacks): 8.59 (on a double)

17. Aaron Hill (Diamondbacks): 4.16

18. Carlos Pena (Astros): 4.29

19. Lyle Overbay (Yankees): 4.71

20. Brian Goodwin (Nationals): 4.18

All the times so far:

Times to First: Part 20

The first update since December (it is kind of hard to get times when no baseball is going on). Links mean that I got the time from somewhere else, and you can follow the link to see the tweet.

1. Chad Oberacker (Athletics A +): 11.42 (on a triple)

2. Tucker Frawley (Blue Jays A-): 4.27

3. Marlon Bryd (Mets): 4.34

4. Michael Taylor (Nationals): 4.20

5. Kensuke Tanaka (Giants): 4.00

6. Mitch Maier (Red Sox): 4.32

7. Evan Gattis (Braves): 4.49

8. Joe Leonard (Braves): 4.46

9. Kyle Blanks (Padres): 4.29

10. Jose Pereza (Braves): 4.01 (on a bunt)

11. Roman Quinn (Phillies): 3.81 (on a bunt)

12. Yasiel Puig (Dodgers): 4.04

13. Joey Gallo (Rangers): 6.65 (from 2nd to home)

14. Jake Elmore (Astros): 4.23

15. Ty Wright (Cubs): 4.34

16. Angel Villalona (Giants): 5.21

17. Lance Berkman (Rangers): 4.34

18. Jim Adduci (Rangers): 10.97 (1st to home)

19. Dustin Ackley (Mariners): 4.16

20. Javier Baez (Cubs): 4.31

I uploaded all the times we have so far (399) to a spreadsheet that you can view below. I sorted by times to first (but the other times, at least for players we have just one time for, should be sorted as well as you scroll down), and the team should be the current team, but let me know if there are any errors.

Jose Flores (Indians) Scouting Report

Right-handed reliever Jose Flores has re-signed with the Indians. While it turns out Jose Flores is a common name in professional baseball, this Flores has spent his entire professional career with the Indians. Flores was taken in the Rule 5 draft by the Mariners in 2011, but was returned at the end of spring training. This was sort of a weird selection (and a predictable send back) considering that he had never made it out of A-ball at the time. He ended up spending the entire year in A + and had a good DIPs year (though his ERA was a shocking 6.02 ERA in 55.1 innings) with a 2.93 FIP, matching solid strikeout and walk ratios with an excellent home run rate. The Kinston (Cleveland's A + affiliate in 2011) ballpark had a 95 park factor in an already somewhat pitcher friendly Carolina League, but Flores' home run rate was basically equal at home and on the road. Despite this, he spent most of 2012 in A + again as a 23 year old. Not to be outdone, he didn't give up a single home run in 38 innings (and in the 6.2 innings in AA). He had a similar 2.54 FIP (in a more hitter friendly park with a 3.67 SIERA because of the no home runs) and was promoted to AA at the end of the year.

If the Mariners got nothing from Flores, we at least got 2 games of Pitch F/X from his spring training outings. The scouting report (according to Ben Badler and USS Mariner) was that he had a "decent fastball but no secondary stuff". We only have 41 pitches of data on Flores (obviously not enough to get tendencies or anything) and 33 of them are fastballs. The one changeup he threw was 83.06 MPH and the 7 sliders he threw averaged 82.22 MPH. His fastball was 91.79 MPH on average (getting up to 93.2 MPH), which is below average for a reliever.

One interesting thing about him statistically is his consistently high BABIPs. When he first came to the States and pitched in the Arizona Summer League in 2009, he had a .348 BABIP in 27.2 innings. In 2010, in A-ball, he had a .327 BABIP in 42 innings. In 2011, he had a BABIP of .376 and a .313 in 2012. Is this because of his batted ball rates, bad defenses in the Indians system, small sample sizes, or other variables? Over the last two years (100 innings), Flores' ground-ball rate has not been bad at all (44.3 %) and there are no absurdities in his line drive rate. The only thing you can really point to is a lack of infield fly-balls.

For defense, I decided to look at the main (most games) shortstops of the clubs he has played for since '09:

Casey Frawley A+ 2011: -13.00 FRAA, 3.34 RF/G (4.36 is average for SS RF/G)

Ronny Rodriguez A + 2012: 8.8 FRAA, 4.24 RF/G

Casey Frawley A 2010: -4.5 FRAA, 3.78 RF/G

Jose Camargo AZL 2009: 3.92 RF/G (FRAA unavailable)

It does seem that Flores hasn't had the benefit of good shortstops (but we only looked at shortstops), but we would expect a high BABIP to run through the Indians system if the culprit is bad defense. So I went to those 4 specific teams listed above, sorted by innings pitched (to get the best sample sizes), took the top 5, and counted the pitchers that had ERAs above and below their FIPs.

2012 A +: 4 had ERAs higher than their FIPs, one had a ERA lower.

2011 A +: 3 had ERAs higher than their FIPs, 2 had ERAs lower

2010 A: 2 had ERAs higher than their FIPs, 3 had ERAs lower

2009 AZL: 3 had ERAs higher than their FIPs, 2 had ERAs lower.

So it does seem that the Indians' defense in the lower minor leagues are costing their pitchers. We should also note that Flores' minor league career is not exactly a large sample size. This can be a problem when evaluating relievers in general, especially in the minor leagues. Flores has only thrown 169.2 innings since coming to the States (there isn't a real reason to include the Dominican Summer League statistics). If we were wanting to identify him as someone who gives up a naturally high BABIP, we would certainly want more innings than that. It seems that we can attribute these numbers to both bad defenses and statistical randomness over small sample sizes.

As you would expect, Flores is more effective against right-handed batters, but he hasn't given up a homer against a lefty over the last two seasons. While his K/BB is very mediocre against lefties (it is a somewhat dominant 21.5 K % to 5.2 BB % against righties), he gets stellar 55.3 GB % against them (just 38.3 %). This is either, again, small sample size, or signals a different approach to lefties. Considering he is so fastball heavy, it would seem to be the former.

Flores has a pretty bizarre delivery that really lacks any kind of fluid motion. It does not seem violent, there just seems to be a lot of moving parts. He must control it well considering his lack of walks in the minors. As we saw above, the velocity is not impressive, but the fastball does seem to get on hitters quickly, perhaps because of the release point. To give you an idea of his release point, look at this chart from Brooks Baseball:

He is 6-3, but he is really releasing the ball at about 6 feet, and he is doing it without coming "out" like you would usually see if he was dropping his release point or coming sidearm. Compare this to Max Scherzer, who basically is throwing sidearm:

Scherzer gets even lower and obviously much more "out". Compare this to the more "normal" delivery of James McDonald:

He obviously uses his height much more and releases the ball higher. However, he is more "out" that Flores, showing that Flores is basically coming straight over the top. This delivery may help Flores keep down the platoon splits as lefties don't have a real advantage (unlike with Scherzer who has huge splits) in seeing the ball sooner and from a different angle. This could explain how Flores is getting all the grounders from lefties (so perhaps it isn't just small sample size!).

His slider looks pretty unimpressive, lacking the big break (though it certainly isn't "soft" velocity wise) desired. He is mainly going to have to pitch off his fastball (some versions of Pitch F/X had him throwing a cutter and two seamer as well) and just hope to fool or surprise hitters with an occasional breaking pitch. I think he is sort of an interesting bullpen piece going forward. He may not get his shot in 2013, but he has pretty solid control and may have just enough deception to get out MLB hitters.

Times to First: Part 18

1. Angel Castillo (Angels AA): 3.82 (on a bunt)

2. Angelys Nina (Rockies AA): 4.20

3. Carlos Ramirez (Angels AA): 7.09 (2nd to home)

4. Braeden Schlehuber (Braves A +): 4.59

5. Dan Black (White Sox A +): 12.62 (on a triple)

6. Denis Phipps (Reds): 11.30 (triple)

7. Shane Peterson (Athletics AAA): 4.16

8. Brad Miller (Mariners AA): 4.24

9. Odubel Herrera (Rangers A +): 4.05

10. Cheslor Cuthbert (Royals A +): 4.47

11. Tucker Barnhart (Reds AA): 4.43

12. Dwight Smith (Blue Jays A-): 4.45

13. Jonathan Garcia (Dodgers A +): 4.31

14. Nick Franklin (Mariners AAA): 11.43 (on a triple)

15. Joe Panik (Giants A+): 4.22

16. Jaff Decker (Padres AA): 4.35

17. Kentrail Davis (Brewers AA) 11.27 (on a triple)

18. Mikie Mahtook (Rays AA): 4.26

19. Gary Brown (Giants AA): 4.12

20. B.A. Vollmuth (Athletics A +): 4.48

Times to First: Part 15

1. Matt Kata (Rangers AAA): 8.03 (on a double)

2. Yangervis Solarte (Rangers AAA): 10.95 (1st to Home)

3. Matt Angle (Dodgers AAA): 3.59 (on a bunt)

4. Osvaldo Martinez (Dodgers AAA): 4.06

5. Trent Oeltjen (Dodgers AAA): 3.74 on a bunt, 8.21 on a double.

6. Mark Reynolds (Orioles): 4.36

7. Eduardo Nunez (Yankees): 7.74 (on a double)

8. Wilkin Ramirez (Twins AAA): 4.24

9. Jose Morales (Pirates AAA): 4.56

10. Brian Dozier (Twins AAA): 7.73 (on a double)

11. Rich Thompson (Rays AAA): 3.54 (on a bunt)

12. Brandon Phillips (Reds): 5.88 (1st to 3rd)

13. Austin Jackson (Tigers): 4.00

14. Trayvon Robinson (Mariners): 11.34 (on a triple)

15. Michael Saunders (Mariners): 10.29 (1st to home)

16. Munenori Kawasaki (Mariners): 11.50 (on a triple)

17. Chone Figgins (Mariners): 11.53 (on a triple)

18. Vinnie Catricala (Mariners AAA): 12.49 (on a triple)

19. Aaron Hicks (Twins AA): 11.66 (on a triple)

20. Tim Wheeler (Rockies AAA): 11.80 (on a triple)

My own draft: Updated (1)

You may remember that after the draft, I did my own little fantasy draft. This is the first update on how they are doing (I only plan on doing this at the end of each season until whenever I quit doing it basically). The minor league statistics mean nothing, I want to see what they will do in the Majors (and compare them to other drafts), but it does give us an update and allows us to weed out the guys that didn't sign.

Mike Zunino: 133 PAs in A-: 161 wOBA +, 249 OPS +. 57 PAs in AA: 128 wOBA +, 173 OPS +

J.T. Chargios: 16 innings in APP ROK: 1.69 ERA, 1.39 FIP, 1.32 SIERA

Alex Yarbrough: 257 PA in A: 103 wOBA + and 106 OPS +, 18 PA in AA: 38 wOBA +, -23 OPS +

Steven Okert: 2 IP in AZL ROK: 0.00 ERA, -1.30 FIP, -.11 SIERA. 26.2 IP in NOR A-: 2.36 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.84 SIERA

Preston Beck: NOR A-: 275 PA 99 wOBA +, 98 OPS +

Jordan John: 3 innings in GCL ROK: 0.00 ERA, 1.58 FIP, .98 SIERA

Preston Tucker: 187 PAs in A-: 130 wOBA +, 168 OPS +

Josh Ludy: 126 PAs in A: 110 wOBA+, 119 OPS +

Jamodrick McGruder: 297 PAs in A-: 98 wOBA +, 85 OPS +

Joel Hutter: 268 PAs in A-: 98 wOBA +, 94 OPS +

Logan Vick: 86 PAs in A-: 86 wOBA +, 58 OPS +

Nolan Fontana: 220 PAs in A: 121 wOBA +, 124 OPS +

Devon Travis: 107 PAs in A-: .793 OPS, 137 wRC +

Austin Elkins: 295 PAs in A-: 112 wOBA +, 125 OPS +

Nate Koneski: 19.1 IP in APP ROK: 3.26 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 1.78 SIERA

Jacob House: 150 PAs in A-: 104 wOBA +, 109 OPS +

Kevin Allen: 28.1 IP in PIO ROK: 4.76 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 3.53 SIERA

Jake Davies: 78 PAs in GCL: 121 wOBA +, 143 OPS +. 134 PAs in A -: 92 wOBA +, 85 OPS +

Lucas Herbst: 151 PAs in A-: 99 wOBA +, 105 OPS +. 47 PAs in A: 67 wOBA +, 34 OPS +

Chris Capper: 43 IP in PIO ROK: 3.98 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 3.22 SIERA

Phillip Pohl: 128 PAs in AZL: 115 wOBA +, 131 OPS +. 12 PAs in A-: 108 wOBA +, 71 OPS +

Hunter Bailey: 84 PAs in GCL: 103 wOBA +, 106 OPS +

Kyle Wren: 129 PAs in ROK: 95 wOBA +, 82 OPS +. 10 PAs in A: 127 wOBA +, 155 OPS +

Austin Hall: 32.7 IP in AZL: 4.41 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 4.00 SIERA

Tyler Hanover: 17 PAs in GCL: 172 wOBA +, 281 OPS +

Eric Erickson: 9.1 IP in A-: 3.86 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 3.28 SIERA

Ken Hatcher: 20.1 IP in AZL: 6.64 FIP, 2.66 FIP, 3.66 SIERA

Pat Stover: 205 PAs in ROK: 92 wOBA +, 79 OPS +

Benny Suarez: 19.1 IP in AZL: 4.19 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 4.13 SIERA. 3.2 IP in A+: 2.45 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 5.50 SIERA

Jason Coats: Was injured as a senior (so he didn't go back to school), but I don't believe he signed. If my understanding is right, he has until next year's draft to sign with the White Sox. If he doesn't, he is a free agent. For the purposes of this, if he signs with the White Sox, I will consider him part of the group moving forward, but if he ends up signing with someone else, I will place him with the others that did not sign.

Jerad Grundy: Did not sign (stayed at Kentucky)

Michael Reynolds:Did not sign (stayed at Texas A&M)

Buck Farmer: Did not sign (stayed at Georgia Tech)

Cameron Cox: Did not sign (went to University of Texas)

Jacob Stone: Did not sign (stayed at Weatherford)

Raph Rhymes: Did not sign (stayed at LSU)

Michael Yastremski: Did not sign (stayed at Vanderbilt)

Kyle Martin: Did not sign (stayed at Texas A&M)

Rafael Pineda: Did not sign (stayed at Texas A&M)

Kyle Farmer: Did not sign (stayed at Georgia)

The big thing I noticed was that I was victimized by guys not signing. It looks like I had 11 picks that did not sign. That seems like a lot. For comaprison, the Angels had 7 guys not sign in the 2011 draft, and the Mariners had just 4 guys out of the top 35 rounds (by my count) not sign. I am interested in seeing how quick some of these guys move.

Times to first: Part 10

1. Ryan Doumit (Twins): 4.40

2. A.J. Pierzinski (White Sox): 4.63

3. Gordon Beckham (White Sox): 4.44

4. Nelson Cruz (Rangers): 4.48

5. Carlos Triunfel (Mariners): 4.12

6. Craig Gentry (Rangers): 11.05 (on a triple)

7. Josh Reddick (Athletics): 4.31

8. Daniel Descalso (Cardinals): 4.13

9. Starlin Castro (Cubs): 4.14

10. Pete Kozma (Cardinals): 4.12

11. Matt Holliday (Cardinals): 4.36

12. Chris Parmalee (Twins): 4.46

13. Curtis Granderson (Yankees): 4.16

14. Chris Davis (Orioles): 4.43

15. Jorge Alfaro (Rangers A): 4.18

16. Carlos Ruiz (Phillies): 4.66

17. Ian Desmond (Nationals): 4.27

18. Franklin Gutierrez (Mariners): 4.23

19. Kendrys Morales (Angels): 8.94 (on a double)

20. Jesus Montero (Mariners): 8.82 (on a double)

So here are the updated times:

Scouting Report on Sioux Falls Pheasants

Joe Anthonsen is a career independent ball player and is the small lead-off hitter for the Pheasants. He put a good swing on a breaking ball but doesn't seem to have much power or bat speed (mistake pitch batting average hitter). Cory Morales was the shortstop and is another career indy ball player. He botched an easy play and offensively, his swing/size doesn't give him much power. He chased a slider to strikeout. Jared Bolden was picked in the 9th round by the Texas Rangers in 2008, and even played 6 games in AAA in 2009. He played 21 games in AA last year (and 94 in A+, hitting .271/.314/.418). He had some really ugly at-bats, with a not good left-handed swing. He runs okay but is not a burner. His best tool is his arm, as it was excellent.

Roger Abercrombie was a 23rd round pick by the Dodgers way back in 1999. He played in 180 MLB games between the Marlins and Astros from 2006-2008. In that time, he had a -.3 FWAR, with a negative UZR (and an even 0 DRS), positive baserunning rating, and wRC+ of just 61. He spent 2009 in AAA Round Rock (Rangers) and had a wOBA + of 95. He has since been in Independent ball. He has good size, but he really seems to lack some bat speed. He has an open stance but closes it before the ball gets there. He hit the ball off the end of the bat, but it looked like there is some raw power though. There was just a lot of bad swings.In centerfield, his arm is strong enough, but he made a really wild throw. He has good range in the field despite being 31.

Jake Taylor was picked in the 35th round by the Marlins in 2005, but went to college instead. After putting up some big numbers at Missouri Southern State University, he went straight to independent ball, where he has struggled. He runs okay, and it looks like he can drive the ball the other way pretty well. He chased out of the zone to strikeout though, and seems prone to do so.

Cesar Nicolas was a 5th round pick by the Diamondbacks back in 2004. He got to AA and put up decent numbers but found himself in independent ball before getting a short stint in the Tigers organization (even getting a few games in AAA, but he is obviously back in independent ball again). He has no real speed at all and the plate discipline is a question. He can pull the ball well though.

Al Quintana was picked in the 40th round in 2005, and unlike most 40th round picks, Quintana made it to AAA. He played in just 17 games at that level though. He has a good looking arm behind the plate, but he was chasing pitches out of the zone.
Cristian Guerrero was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Brewers in 1997. In a long minor league career, he spent some time with Seattle, Washington, and Angels affiliates before going into independent ball in 2008. He looked just lost at the plate. His plate discipline was awful.

Mark Michael got a relatively short run in the Pirates system as a UDFA in the mid-2000s, but has been an Indy Ball veteran since then (and not a particularly good one). The starting right-handed pitcher was sitting at just 85-86 MPH on his fastball, getting up to 87-88 MPH later, and touching 89-90 MPH once each. He threw a rare changeup at 78 MPH with no real movement and it stayed up. His curveball was 75-76 MPH when he could throw it for strikes, and 71-72 MPH when it was in the dirt. It doesn't have loopy downward break, but it was his feature pitch. He was grunting throughout the entire outing, indicating some effort in his delivery. It may account for some of the variances in his velocity, although it doesn't look like a messy delivery with the eye.

Kyle Mertins is a RHP with an interesting delivery in which it looks like his foot is already down by the time his arm comes over the top. He threw a lot of mediocre sliders that were 82-84 MPH. His fastball was 89-91, hitting 92 MPH. It is straight and stays high, but at least with his slider he works both eye levels. Command/control is an issue for him. After being an okay reliever at Cal State Fullerton, Mertins was drafted in the 28th round by the Braves in 2010. He never had a good strikeout rate, but didn't walk too many batters and kept the ball in the park, putting up decent numbers but his career with the Braves ended after spending all of 2011 in Rome (A).

Alan Deratt is a beefy right-handed reliever who made it to AA with the Rockies (17th round pick in 2008). His overall K/BB in the minors was not bad, but he really wasn't given much of a chance in AA, pitching in just 3 outings. He hit 90 MPH on his fastball, with a 80-82 MPH slider with some sharp break. He can throw it for strikes or bury it.

Scouting Reports on the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks

On Thursday August 23rd, I watched the Grand Prairie Airhogs and the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks of the American Association. Thanks to a previous rain-out I have a ticket for another Grand Prairie game, so I will just put the Fargo-Moorhead scouting report here and write the Grand Prairie one after the second game.

Eric Campbell was the Redhawks' cleanup hitter and played 3rd base. He was in the Mariners organization and played in 58 games with the AA team where he had a .713 OPS before being released. Since joining Fargo-Moorhead, he has been about as good as he was in his 2010 stop with the team (1.013 OPS in 2010, 1.039 OPS this year). When he was with Seattle, I wrote about him here and here. Defensively, he made a bad throw for an error (he really should be a first baseman, although the bat hasn't really played there in affiliated ball, it plays there in Independent ball). Offensively, he hit a ball hard, but he also weakly chopped one as he was hitting grounder softly the end of his bat (usually meaning he was being fooled by breaking balls, as he was in affiliated ball).

Carlos Cota was picked in the 33rd round by the Blue Jays way back in 2002 (he is 31 now). He was with the organization until 2007 but found the transition from A+ (where he had good numbers) to AA (where he was terrible) difficult. He has been with Fargo-Moorhead since 2008, and has a .808 OPS in that time. He has a little bit of pop, but there is too much swing and miss in his game for his size.

The catcher was 24 year old Ryan Delgado. Delgado was drafted in the 32nd round by the Braves in 2010 and put up decent numbers (especially for a catcher) in small sample sizes. He showed off a really good arm behind the plate and I thought he did an okay job blocking the plate for an extremely wild pitcher. It looks like he has some pop in his bat, and is able to go the other way and pull the ball with a little authority. He did take some really ugly swings, and plate discipline seems to be an issue. In 83 games with Fargo, he is hitting .314/.363/540. I really wouldn't be surprised to see him get another shot at affiliated ball.

25 year old Jon Gaston has a little bit of power, especially considering his size (listed at 6-0 220, that might be a little charitable). He did have one really ugly hack to strikeout. He was drafted in the 7th round by the Houston Astros in 2008, and played in 17 games for the White Sox AA this year. He was somewhat of a Lancaster mirage, with an OPS near 1.000 there, and significant regression in AA Corpus Christi (he was actually worse in AA the second year, which lead to the end of his Astro career).

Nic Jackson was the 3 hitter and had 3 hitter type build. He has a bit of a weird stance as far as his hands go and had a big whiff on a high fastball (those two were probably not unrelated). He lacks speed and pull power. He is having a pretty good year for the Redhawks, but is already 32 and hasn't been in affiliated ball since 2007, when he was with the Mets' AA and hit just .209/.280/.396 in 100 plate appearances. He was a one time top 100 prospect according to Baseball America and was picked in the 3rd round in 2000 by the Cubs. He got to AAA but had just a .710 OPS in the hitter friendly PCL.

Zach Penprase is the 27 year old starting shortstop. He was drafted in the 13th round in 2006 by the Phillies but never made it past A ball thanks to an absolutely absent bat. He has an extremely strong arm, and as his minor league numbers suggest, he was not impressive with the bat (other than hitting a 88 MPH fastball hard). Unfortunately, he didn't show off much speed either. He has been with the Redhawks since 2008 and has a .786 OPS (which probably gives you an idea of the competition in the American Association).

The starting pitcher was Paul Burnside, a 25 year old out of the University of Auburn and former 39th round pick by the Chicago Whitesox (2009). He had an impressive stint in A-ball, but was let go earlier this year after 4 awful relief outings in A+. Since joining Fargo, he has a solid ERA but terrible K/BB ratio. As those numbers suggest, he had all kinds of problems throwing strikes and was extremely wild. He was mostly 89-91 MPH, okay for a right-handed starter, but his breaking ball didn't have sharp bite.

Joe Harris is a rather soft tossing lefty that the Redhawks used out of the pen. His breaking ball was decent and he used it often. He has been used exclusively out of the pen, even though some starters have succeeded with that stuff. He was never drafted and I can't find evidence of him playing college ball, so he seems to have appeared from nowhere. He is not small at 6-3, and has a 2.86 ERA out of the pen out of the last 2 years. He walks too many hitters for his stuff at about 3.5 per 9 innings and as expected doesn't strikeout a lot of batters.

Scouting Reports on Fort Worth Cats and Edinburg Roadrunners

On Wednesday August 8th 2012, I watched the Fort Worth Cats and Edinburg Roadrunners of the North American League. Why watch an independent game you ask? Every week in Matt Eddy's indispensable Baseball America minor league transaction report, you see several teams signing independent ball players to help fill their minor league rosters. Examples of it working include Joey Gathright playing in a few games for the Red Sox last year, and Steve Delabar for the Mariners (now the Blue Jays). Also geography plays a role. While Texas is a hot bed for College and High School baseball, it really isn't great for minor league baseball. The only two teams in relative driving distance are the Rangers' AA and AAA teams. I have already watched the whole Texas League and Pacific Coast League this year. While I would like to go scout the AZL, the GCL, or even the New York Penn League, that simply isn't an option. So without further ado:


Edinburg Roadrunners:

Matison Smith spent 4 years at Lamar College, mainly as a starter. His K rate wasn't very impressive at 5.29 K/9IP with a few too many walks at 3.11. He was undrafted but pitched in the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League with the Astros in 2010 and 2011. While looking at shortseason statistics are sometimes dangerous, he was good. His FIPs were 2.49 and 2.67 (2.51 SIERA), while he was a little old for the level. In 13 starts for Edinburg, he hasn't been all that good with a 6.8 K/9IP and 4.2 BB/9IP.
He is a guy who could get another chance in affiliated ball. The smallish (6-0) first two pitches were hard hit balls. He can throw a breaking ball for strikes and would work backwards at times. The pitch provides him with some good speed differential, even though it doesn't have big movement. It really only got hit hard once. It was best when he threw it in the dirt, that was really the only consistent time he got whiffs (and he did a much better job of locating it as the game went along). His fastball was getting hit pretty hard though. There was just too many in the middle of the plate.

Stantrel Smith is maybe the Roadrunners best position player. At age 28, he has been in Independent ball since 2008 and has been mediocre with the bat (.289/.325/.384). He was originally drafted in the 16th round by the Angels way back in 2003. He flamed out in A ball thanks to awful hitting statistics. He has always been a stolen base threat though. He is tall and skinny and noisy at the plate with a lot of wiggle. It seemed to set him up to struggle with inside fastballs and he hacked at the first breaking ball he saw. He played left field which is not where his bat profiles. He is pretty speedy looking, but is an awkward runner (I timed him at 8.09 on a double, which is not incredibly fast). He did smack a couple of line drives.

I liked centerfielder Vincent Blue better. He was drafted in the 10th round by the Tigers, but that was all the way back in 2001. He has been in independent ball since 2007 after getting all the way to AA only to really struggle. His timing at the plate was off, but he has a good contact tool. The left handed batter showed off a good eye, which isn't surprising considering his decent walk totals in the minors. He also has good speed as well, as I timed him at about 4.00 to 1st base.

Wilmer Pino originally signed with the Yankees (NDFA) in 2005. Now 26, he never made it out of A ball, and has been in Independent ball since he was 21. He has pretty good size and I really liked his defensive range at 2nd base. The arm was a problem, but other than that he was really good out there. He also squared a ball up pretty well.

Carlos Hereaud was drafted in the 9th round in 2005. From what I kind find, he never made it out of the Arizona League and he didn't even embarrass himself out there. However, it is pretty obvious that they missed on the pick. He has below average speed and had some real bat speed issues. He was late on fastballs, it is just not a quick swing. My guess is that the scouts saw him in Arizona and saw that it clearly wasn't going to work out and cut him quickly.

Osiel Flores was the catcher and he showcased a really good throwing arm. He had a quick release and some real zip on the ball. Offensively, he had problems with the breaking ball but did hit an okay line drive. After playing for a couple of small colleges in Texas, he signed with the Indians. He played just 26 games in the organization before moving to independent ball.

Tim Battle, despite good speed ratings on the Baseball Cube and Fangraphs, did not look like a good runner to me. He was originally a 3rd round pick by the Yankees but never really hit enough to make it to AA. He wasn't impressive to me at all, and he was blown away by fastballs out of the plate.

Derek Perren is small and was fooled on the breaking ball. He was clearly relying on going the other way. Despite a big senior year at USC (after a poor junior year), he went straight to independent ball.
Felix Molina had what looked like a good swing and squared up on the ball well. It doesn't look like his bat speed or power is plus (or even average) but he hit a hard double. He is a little hefty for shortstop and he didn't have very good range. He was originally drafted by the Twins in the 21st round back in 2001 and made it all the way to AAA (only 3 games though). He also had a stint in the Astros' AA where he hit just .239/.310/.368 in 70 games in 2009.
The Roadrunners also had a player named Luis Zumosa. I hope I am spelling that right, as he is not listed on the roster and I can't find him anywhere else. He is not real big (compared to many 1st baseman) but he really cranked a ball just foul. It was the farthest hit ball in the game.

The first reliever for the Roadrunners (who kept Smith in the game far too long) was Robert Roth. Roth was picked in the 19th round by the Philadelphia Phillies and never made it to AA, walking over 5 batters per 9 innings in his minor league career. He seemed to be throwing pretty hard. He was just pumping fastballs by hitters and there wasn't much they could do with it. He change speeds with a decent breaking ball. His command wasn't great, but it gave him good speed differential and movement.

Paul Koss had a decent looking straight fastball he can throw low in the zone for whiffs. He was drafted by the Dodgers in the 11th round and made it to AA where he pitched well with a 3.48 FIP. He started the next year in High A anyway and was terrible, with a 5.44 FIP in 2010. He then went to independent ball, and was awful in 2011. He looked more like the good AA pitcher when I saw him. 

Fort Worth Cats:

Casey Russell had some success in St. Edwards but wasn't drafted. In 4 outings (2 starts) previous to this outing, he struck out just 2.6 batters per 9 innings and walked 3.7 per 9 innings. He is listed at 6-1 200. He was throwing hard and while he goes both high and low with the fastball but doesn't have good command of it. It seemed a little difficult to square up some of them for the hitters, as many of them looked like sinkers. They weren't fooling anyone though, and he can't miss bats. He had an occasional really slow breaking ball that he had no feel for. It was his most effective pitch when it was near the zone.

Jose Ruiz is a big first baseman from Cuba that was originally signed by the Rays for their AA team. After a .706 OPS in 23 games, he joined the Rangers organization in 2011 where he split time between AA and AAA. He hit a little better, but his OPS was still under .800, not really acceptable for a first baseman. He had some real problems with breaking balls when I saw him. He has some power though and was surprisingly good defensively, making a good scoop and then really flashing the leather on a hard liner he had to dive for.

C.J. Beatty was the Cats leadoff man, which makes sense with his build, but he also DH'ed, which made less sense. He has some pop, but was consistently getting under the ball with his upper cut swing. I don't think his power is good enough for him to continue to do that. He was a 26th round pick in 2009 by the Cardinals but was released after 2010, never reaching AA. He was really good in college with the bat but just mediocre in the minors.

R.J. Harris played center and didn't have a good arm. He showed off a good eye at the plate though. He was not drafted out of the University of Texas at Arlington (where he was terrible) and went straight to independent ball. Chuck Caufield has a plus arm and is a big guy with a RF profile (which is what he played). It looks like he has some power and really hit a ball hard. His speed is a little bit below average, but he looks decent defensively. He was picked in the 39th round by the Brewers and had a long run in the organization, getting to AAA for 4 games and 221 games in AA. He never really showed off the power in AA in the large sample size with just a .379 SLG.

2nd base for Fort Worth is anchored by recently signed indy ball veteran Antoin Gray. Gray was drafted by the White Sox in the 25th round in 2003. He reached AA quickly and was okay with a .727 OPS. Since then, he has been putting up pretty big numbers for different independent ball teams. He scorched a ball and walked twice despite being fooled bad on a breaker and whiffing bad on a fastball. He doesn't have real good speed, especially defensively.

Shelby Ford played shortstop and is pretty tall but doesn't have great range (along with below average speed, getting to 1st in 4.3-4.4 seconds). He also has some bat speed issues, with some swing and miss in his game. After being drafted in the 3rd round by the Pirates, he made it all the way to AAA, but was terrible there. I didn't like either of the former 3rd round picks in this game.

Brandon Jones was a 42nd round pick by the Seattle Mariners in 2002 but never played for the organization as far as I can tell. He played 3rd, despite being too big for it and really lacked the range and arm (the left side of the infield for Fort Worth did not have a good night). He has a weird stance where he keeps his hands low but he has some bat speed. He swung and missed a lot and was fooled badly on breaking balls. 

Out of the bullpen, Kane Holbrooks has good size and a reasonably hard fastball. He works both low and high, and despite it being straight it was getting some ground-balls. It was certainly best when he used it low. He didn't show a breaking ball and didn't appear to have swing and miss stuff. He was drafted by the Twins in the 21st round in 2009 and pitched just 1 game in AA. In 2011, he spent all of the year in advanced class A, and had a 4.45 FIP and 5.03 SIERA, both well worse than league average.

Former Major Leaguer Rick Bauer was the next reliever out of the pen. The tall right-hander had a little bit of cut and sink on his fastball. The velocity wasn't as good as Holbrooks, and the last time he pitched in the Majors (2008!) it was just 91.5 MPH. A pitch down the middle was hit pretty hard. His breaking ball is a soft sweeping slider, but his pitches were really being squared up and then he struggled to throw strikes. He then broke out what looked like a curve (something he didn't throw in 2008) that he could throw for strikes. His 2nd inning was much better.

T.J. Bozeman was undrafted out of a couple of relatively small Texas colleges and joined Fort Worth in 2011. He has a weird arm action and was throwing a lot of changeups. He comes over the top in a deceptive way and it makes his fastball looks better. While his change has good break, he doesn't quite have the fastball to offset it. He threw one change right down the middle to Hereaud that should have been a homer. Instead it was a weak popup.

Scouting Report on Neil Ramirez (Updated)

Neil Ramirez was ranked as the 5th best prospect for the Texas Rangers coming into 2012 by Baseball America. He was picked in the Supplemental First Round by the Rangers and signed for 1 million dollars. According to Baseball Cube, his best attribute is his strikeout ability, which is ranked as a 79 out of 100. He has really low control and versus power ratings.

He doesn't have crazy splits this year, with a .267 OBP against righties and .278 OBP against lefties (the SLG is .103 higher against lefties). He has a decent strike percentage of 64.68% (all numbers are not counting the start I detail below), but has really struggled keeping the ball on the ground with a 22/38 GO/AO ratio. In 25 AAA starts, he has a 4.06 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.44 K/9IP. This is really impressive once you consider that the 22 year old (will turn 23 years old later this month) pitches in the very hitter friendly AAA. According to our AAA (PCL edition) metric, this is projected to be a 3.59 ERA in the big leagues.

I watched him on Sunday May 13th 2012 against the Tacoma Rainiers (Seattle Mariners' AAA). The Rainiers have a weak PCL lineup. To give you an idea of just how weak it is, Carlos Triunfel was batting 3rd. Triunfel has been extremely disappointing as a prospect, with a .697 career MiLB OPS. On the under hand, he definitely was getting squeezed by the umpire.

His curveball was ranked the best in the organization by Baseball America in 2007. I really saw him go to it when it looked like he was in trouble early on. Most of the time his curveball didn't get as low as you would like and stayed up. When it did get down, it was clearly his best pitch. It wasn't a big looping curve, but it had good speed differential.
He can throw all his breaking pitches for strikes. Especially his changeup. He threw one changeup on a 3-1 for a swinging strike in the 2nd against Savastano. It doesn't have a lot of movement, so it is all about speed differential and just making the hitter guess. It is certainly not a Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez "here is my changeup, and you can't hit it" change, but few of them are. It is a serviceable pitch.
The breaking stuff induced a lot of weak pop-outs, 4 in 3 innings (2 in 1st, 1 each in the 2nd and 3rd). His fastball was in the low to mid 90s and he showed a lot of promise with it, commanding it on both sides of the plate and both up and down.
He definitely had some hard downward movement. His fastball had real sink when it was kept low, almost like he has a separate sinker. His velocity did show off, as a lot of hitters were late on the fastball early. He was really fastball happy, and I think to a detriment. I thought he should have thrown more curveballs. He gave up a double on a fastball down the middle and really started to have major control problems in the 3rd (and he got no help from his defense, I felt bad that the left side of his infield was Matt Kata and Tommy Mendonca. The Detroit Tigers think that is a dreadful defensive infield). With the bases loaded, he threw a fastball up and in to fastball up and in hitter Luis Jimenez, and predictably, he hit a grand slam. Whether this is simply a lack of scouting report or just awful command one can't be real sure, but it was not pretty. Overall, his fastball isn't a "put away" pitch, even though it seems he wanted it to be. He had some really wild fastballs up high, which might be a product of an inconsistent release point. He hit a batter in the 4th, and there was definitely a regression from the first time he went through the lineup to the 2nd time. However, he still got some swings and misses, which I thought was very encouraging.

Overall, he has a very simple delivery, with no real deception but no real mechanical flaws or major injury risks (although our understanding of pitching mechanics are not very good). He displayed what I thought was mid rotation stuff, but he looks really far from polished and is clearly not ready for the big leagues yet. The promise is there, which I thought was magnified when he made Johan Limonta (to be fair, a player with no big league future or potential) look really silly on his fastball/changeup combo. He threw too many pitches in the middle of the plate, and even with decent (not great) movement on his pitches, it is just not a recipe for success. Whether Ramirez lives up to his stuff or not will depend on location, like most pitchers.

Update: I saw Ramirez again in Round Rock against the Sacramento River Cats (Oakland A's AAA). Here is some poorly done video (by my brother Daniel):

 He was throwing 90-92 MPH, and had real control problems early. He got better as game went on. He was nasty when he hit the corners with the fastball and curve. He gave up a homer that was a typical PCL homer, it didn't appear to be hit hard and it just carried. Jason Cole of Lone Star Dugout told me (on the twitter machine) that he has had a really odd season, with times where he has had excellent command and then times where he has had no command. I saw both on Thursday May 24th 2012.

Some other notes from the game:
Michael Taylor of the A's is an absolute monster as far as size goes. He takes a huge hack, but the bat speed is pretty slow and he swings and misses a lot. He seems to have a decent eye (he walked when Neil Ramirez was walking everyone and then struck out when Ramirez was striking out everyone).

A.J. Griffin started for the Rivercats and he was 88-89 MPH with a 78-79 curve and then a slow curve/change that got a couple of 68 MPH readings. The stuff doesn't really match his minor league strikeout totals. He had a couple of bad luck plays in the first, followed by a good fielding play. Matt Kata of all people took him all the way to the wall later in the game.

Tyler Tufts for Round Rock has an overhand delivery with a little bit of tail on a 87-91 MPH fastball (Cole notes that he was hitting 93-95 earlier this year). He has an 80 MPH curve, and kept all 3 balls in the infield.

Pedro Figueroa is a lefty that was throwing 90-93 MPH out of the bullpen for Sacramento.

Tanner Scheppers of Round Rock was throwing 95-97 MPH, and hit 98 MPH twice. He hung the 82 MPH slider the first time he threw it and gave up a single, but then got a double play. He got a nasty swing and miss in the last at-bat on the slider, and then got a called strike 3 to the end the game.

The Mariners sign Muneno Kawasaki

The Mariners have reportedly signed Muneno Kawasaki to a minor league contract. At age 30, in his past 5 years in the NPB, he has a .344 OBP, .721 OPS, 1.1 PPG, and 2.76 PAPP. According to the Japanese metric, this is projected to be a .311 OBP, .61 PPG, 3.5 PAPP, and a -1.15 Simple WAR. In 2011, Kawasaki was worse, with just a .310 OBP, which is just a .277 OBP once adjusted for the MLB. He is also a below average shortstop according to range factor, although it is worth noting that he is above average according to fielding percentage. He homers less than 1% of the time, and walks just 6% of the time. He did have a decent stealing rate, at about 72% success rate. You usually want a 75-80% rate for stealing to be worth it. One would expect some kind of regression in the MLB, meaning that his one decent weapon would be taken away from him. It is just a minor league contract, so its not like the Mariners lose anything, but I don't see Kawasaki having success in the Big Leagues.

The Angels sign Langerhans, Hurley, and Diaz

The Angels have singed Ryan Langerhans, Eric Hurley, and Robinson Diaz to Minor League contracts.

Langerhans had just 64 PA in 2011, so those numbers are useless. In his career he has a .333 OBP, 86 OPS +, and .301 Secondary Average. His ISO is just .146, but he has 4.5 Runs Created per a Game and .456 Offensive Winning Percentage. He walks a stunning 13 % of the time, and is just below average at extra base hits and homers. He hits more line drives than average and has more flyballs than grounders. His PPS is a very solid 95.5. He is also a good defender with a career D-WAR of 3.0. This is a very good pickup for the Angels.

Hurley has very little Major League experience. In AAA, he has a 2.66 PE as a starter. This translates to a 5.19 PE in the Majors. He has struggled mightily with homers, there doesn't seem to be anything here.

Diaz also has meager MLB playing time. He does however, have tons of AAA time. There he has just a .296 OBP, and .664 OPS. He doesn't help himself defensively by being a very poor catcher. At least 1 of these signings will help the Angels, but I don't see how the last two will, but they are just minor league contracts.

Toronto trades for Valbuena

Toronto has traded for Luis Valbuena from the Cleveland Indians for cash considerations. Valbuena has a -.7 WAR in parts of 4 seasons (806 PA). He is a bad defender, with a -1.1 D-WAR for his career. His career offensive statistics look like this: .286 OBP, 72 OPS +, and 1.488 O4S. He isn't arbitration eligible yet, so he will play for the new minimum salary of $ 480,000. Just 25, so he could still improve as he hasn't hit his prime yet. Secondary Average of just .197. 3.3 Runs Created per Game and .326 Offensive Winning percentage. One could point out that he has just a .272 and could be due for a progression. He is a below average walker at 7.3%, as well as a below average home run hitter and extra base hitter. His Pit/PA is at league average, and with his dismal OBP, he has a PPS of just 88.66. However he does have good minor league numbers. In 2011, with Cleveland's AAA team, a International League team, he played 113 games, getting a .372 OBP, 2.45 PAPP, 1.43 PPG, and 3.35 Simple WAR. Through the AAA metric, we can expect Valbuena's numbers to be something like this in the Majors: .326 OBP, 3.02 PAPP, 1.03 PPG, and 1.86 WAR. These aren't overly impressive, but these numbers are much better than what he has shown in the pros so far. Since he is not quite in his prime yet, someone could argue rather convincingly that we can expect those numbers. However, he does have over 800 PA, so there is at least a good chance that he is a AAAA type player. Toronto didn't give up hardly anything for him, so this could actually turn out to be a good depth move. Even if turns out that Valbuena can't play, its not as if they have poured a big investment into him. So certainly this is a low risk low reward move.

Free Agent Watch: Adam Kennedy

Adam Kennedy had just a .4 WAR in 2011 with Seattle and a .83 WAR Average in the past 3 years. This is worth 2.5 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard, but with such a low WAR, he could only really be considered as a bench player, because you need about 1.4 WAR per player to make the playoffs, so Kennedy would be way below average needed. In 2011, he had a .277 OBP, .632 OPS, 3.33 PAPP, and .78 PPG. His career line is better but not impressive at .92 PPG, 2.9 PAPP, .326 OBP, and .711 OPS. He has been a serviceable offensive player in his career, but he wasn't even that in 2011. At 35 years old, it is tempting to argue that Kennedy is just washed up. BABIP is certainly a big factor though. For his career, he has a .306 BABIP, but in 2011 his BABIP was just .266. So was he hitting the ball less hard or was he just unlucky in 2011? His ISO was actually slightly above his career average at .121 and he homered at a slightly better rate than his career, but still below league average. He hit slightly less groundballs than usual, and had more extra base hits than usual. However, there are a couple of things that give a different story, he hit less line drives than usual, and he had a shocking 15% of his flyballs stay in the infield. So one could certainly make the argument either way on whether his BABIP was earned. Which ever way you fall on this argument (I believe that it is luck and you can expect some rebound in 2012), it is not like Kennedy is some offensive force. He is a below average walker, below average power hitter, and has a career Secondary Average of just .206. He has a PPS of just 89.5, and I really don't see the benefit of having Kennedy in your lineup unless your just dying for defense (6.5 D-WAR for his career).

Wait. Why did the Diamondbacks resign Willie Bloomquist?

Willie Bloomquist was given a two-year deal worth $3.8 million dollars. Bloomquist had a -.2 WAR in 2011, -.1 WAR in 2010, and .1 WAR in 2009. This hardly warrants the kind of contract the Diamondbacks gave him. In his career, he has a .317 OBP and .654 OPS (those numbers were basically identical in 2011). This means he is below average at getting on base, and a terrible slugger. More basic metrics show this as well with a 2.85 PAPP and .74 PPG. His offensive winning percentage is a measly .384 with a 3.8 Runs Created per game. His Secondary Average is .185 and ISO of just .073. He is a groundball hitter with basically no power. He is also under average at seeing pitches at just a 87.48 PPS. Add to this, he is a bad defender, with a -.8 D-WAR in his career. This really leads us to ask what the hell this is all about. Bloomquist is, at best, a replacement player (WAR suggests he is worse). IF (!) he deserves anything, it is a minor league contract. Instead, the Diamondbacks insist on giving Bloomquist multiple million dollars. I really don't understand this one.

Free Agent Watch: Ryan Rowland-Smith

Ryan Rowland-Smith spent 2011 with the Astros organization, and as bad as the Astros were, he was never brought up. In his Major League career (all with Seattle), he has a -.2 WAR. This is all because of his awful 2010 season where he had a -3.5 WAR. Previous to that, he had a 3.3 WAR in 253.1 innings. In 2010, his PE was as putrid as his WAR at 7.582. In his 3 previous seasons, he had a PE of 1.353, not great but not bad. So what was the difference? Many baseball stats people will say that ERAs will change, but strikeout totals and WHIP usually doesn't change much for a pitcher year to year. With Rowland-Smith, that isn't true, as he had a 1.303 WHIP in his first 3 seasons and then changed to a 1.692 in 2010. Similarly, he went from a 6.1 K/9IP in his first 3 seasons, and then dropped to a 4 K/9IP in 2010. This, and the fact that his BABIP (.304) was around league average in 2010, points to something fundamentally changing in Rowland-Smith. For his career,  his TR is a pitiful 6.86, and in 2010 it must have set some kind of record for futility at 2.84. This really leaves us to throw up our hands and ask what kind of pitcher Rowland-Smith actually is. Just looking at his overall Major League numbers, it seems that he really wasn't all that great anyway, and the house of cards all came crashing down. However, it does make some sense to look at his AAA PCL numbers with the Astros organization in 2011. He threw 104.2 innings, so it is a good sample size. His PE was 3.38, and his adjusted PE was 2.03. Both of these numbers are pretty bad. His ERA was 6.19, and even though he suffered from a .350 BABIP, his FIP was still 4.84. So even if the world was fair, his AAA ERA would still nearly be 5, absolutely unacceptable. Incidentally, his SIERA (skill independent ERA, mainly just another formula for FIP) is 4.84 for the Majors (his FIP is 4.97). This isn't very good, but the eternal optimist would argue it is not irredeemable. Certainly it is worth bringing guys like this in to spring training on a low risk type basis, but I don't think you can really expect much of anything from Rowland-Smith.

Free Agent Watch: Erik Bedard

Erik Bedard had a 1.7 WAR in 2011, in which he split with the Mariners and Red Sox. He has a 1.67 WAR average in the past 3 years he has played in (he did not appear in the 2010 season), and has always had injury problems. He had an incredible PE of -1.4 in 2011, and with his FIP basically identical to his ERA, it is hard to call it fluky. His TR was less impressive, but still solid at 9.61. In his career, he has a -1.33 PE, and has been a consistent strikeout pitcher in his entire career. His career TR is 9.82, almost identical to his 2011 TR. Along with his high strikeout totals, he has an average BABIP of .300, a very good combination. He gives up less than a homer every 9 innings, doesn't walk too many batters, has a pretty good groundball ratio, and has a career FIP of 3.65. This all adds up to a very valuable starting pitcher. Because of his injury problems, he may be undervalued in free agency. There are not very many differences between his lefty/rightie splits, and he is basically a fastball-curveball pitcher. I like Bedard, and the metrics like Bedard, and he doesn't throw especially hard, which means more teams will ignore him than should. He is certainly worth the 5+ million that WASP suggests he is, but I wouldn't give much more because of his lack of ability to stay on the field.