Times to First: Part 21

1. Jason Bay  7.79 (on a double)

2. Raul Ibanez (Mariners): 4.38

3. Tony Wolters (Indians): 4.14

4. Will Middlebrooks (Red Sox): 12.72 (on a triple)

5. Jason Bourgeois (Rays): 3.84 (on a bunt)

6. Travis Jankowski (Padres): 4.2

7. Emmanuel Burris (Reds): 4.09

8. Joey Butler (Rangers): 6.87 (2nd to home)

9. Michael McKenry (Pirates): 4.41

10. Adam Greenburg (Orioles/Free Agent): 4.15

11. Josh Harrison (Pirates): 4.19

12. Chris Coghlan (Marlins): 7.87 (on a double)

13. Felix Perez (Reds): 11.76 (on a triple)

14. Ryan Howard (Phillies): 4.59

15. Geraldo Parra (Diamondbacks): 4.19

16. Jason Kubel (Diamondbacks): 8.59 (on a double)

17. Aaron Hill (Diamondbacks): 4.16

18. Carlos Pena (Astros): 4.29

19. Lyle Overbay (Yankees): 4.71

20. Brian Goodwin (Nationals): 4.18

All the times so far:

Rays AA Scouting Reports: Morrison and Kang

Here are scouting reports on two outfielders that played in the Rays' AA this year 2012:

Ty Morrison was picked in the 4th round out of high school in 2008. He was left off of Baseball America's Rays' top 10, but was named the best defensive outfielder in the system. Morrison was one of four 21 year olds in the Southern (AA) league to have a qualified amount of plate appearances (fellow Ray Hak-Ju Lee was another). Despite this, in 102 games, he hit a little above league average with a 103 wRC +. His BABIP was perhaps a little high at .337 (league average was .304), but it isn't bad nevertheless for someone a little young for the league. He struck out about league average and walked below average (just a touch under Junior Lake) and hit a ton of ground-balls (55.7%!). This obviously limits his power. He definitely has a ground-ball swing and is somewhat of a slap hitter. It is really an ugly swing and he doesn't make as much contact as you would like for a guy who doesn't get a hit for any power. His swing is either not quick enough, or he isn't recognizing the ball quick enough because he was swinging late a lot. Here is a look at his swing:

Despite the offensive concerns, he is a good athlete, with Speed Scores in the 7.3-7.5 range, which seems to match the stopwatch, as I got roughtly 4 seconds to first for the left-handed hitter. You can see how this would translate into a good centerfield (although CF defense is rather trick to evaluate).

Kyeong Kang was somewhat of a strikeout machine in 2012, possessing one of the highest strikeout rates in the Southern League. The 24 year old was actually repeating AA, but saw his strikeout rate jump 11 %. The left-handed batter had some really bad whiffs on breaking balls way out of the zone against LHP when I saw him. He has some of the most extreme platoon splits I have ever seen, making Carlos Pena blush. In 2011, he had a .500 OPS against left-handers. In 2012, it dropped to .311. His ISO was .259 against right-handers, but just .033 against lefties. He struck out against 47% of the lefties he faced! At some point, rattling off the numbers is more about fun than it is informative, but the point is that these problems do not seem fixable and are obvious to even the most casual observers. When he is ahead, especially against RHP, he seems pretty patient. He is still going to strikeout, but he has a pretty quick swing. It is inconsistent, as sometimes it is controlled, and sometimes he seems to be swinging out of his shoes:

Kang is a corner outfielder, who actually played most of his games at DH. Because of this, he isn't going to bring the defensive value that the Rays usually value. The strikeouts are certainly a problem, and he will certainly get a shot in AAA before he sniffs the Majors, but he could be a platoon bat to hit RHP as a DH and occasional outfielder in the Majors within the next couple of years.

Moneyball Review: The 3 Unsung Heroes

A big reason the Moneyball A's of 2002 (and even the 2001 A's) were successful was because of their pitching. The movie focuses mainly on the bullpen when it comes to pitching, but the Athletics had an extremely talented starting staff, headlined by 3 young pitchers: Zito, Mulder, and Hudson. 2001 and 2002 were the first full seasons for Barry Zito (the first round pick in the 1999 draft), and he threw well over 200 innings both years. In 2001 he posted a 4.3 WAR and -1.578 PE. In 2002, he had a -1.036 PE and a 6.5 WAR. Because minimum salary was less than it is now, he posted a mind-blowing 49 WASP (you could even double his salary to adjust for salary changes and its still 99, which would make him one of the top in the league). Mark Mulder was the first round pick for the A's in 1998, and 2001 and 2002 were also his first two full years in the Majors. He was really impressive too, posting a 9.5 WAR, 109 WASP, and 1.129 PE over that time. Tim Hudson was the 6th round pick of the A's in 1997, and had already started 53 games by the time 2001 rolled around. In 2001 and 2002, Hudson was spectacular, posting an 11 WAR, 127 WASP, and -0.494 PE. The story of Moneyball is great, and Billy Beane changed the way many teams operate and forever revolutionized the way we evaluate baseball, but we aren't even talking about Pena over Hatteberg, Chad Bradford, and Rincon if the A's didn't have Zito, Mulder, and Hudson. They were high round draft picks that the Athletics hit on, giving them great starting pitching (and as the Rays are showing), that is how to best build a team with no money. You have to draft well, and you have to have starting pitching.

Moneyball Review: Scott Hatteberg or Carlos Pena?

The face of Moneyball is Scott Hatteberg. Who can replace Jason Giambi? Hatteberg. Why? Because he can get on base. "Play Hatteberg" becomes the mantra of Billy Beane, much to the dismay of Art Howe, who wanted to play Carlos Pena. So who was right? Despite being one of the big decisions, if not the key decision of Billy Beane's moneyball A's, some have suggested that the move is actually antithetical to the principle of moneyball. In 2002, Carlos Pena was making just $202,000, while Hatteberg was making $900,000. Pena was also a much younger player, although this doesn't really matter to Beane. The first question is whether Hatteberg or Pena was better in 2002 for the Athletics. The answer is easily Hatteberg. Hatteberg posted a 2.7 WAR (he bizarrely had a .7 WAR on defense, when the big question was whether he could play first base, he obviously could), while Pena posted just a .4 WAR in his time with the Athletics. Carlos Pena played in 40 games, giving him a WAR per game of .01, while Hatteberg (played in 136 games) had a .02 WAR per game. Hatteberg post a 333 WASP (if you are unsure what any of these statistics mean, check the tabs above), while Pena had a 505. While both numbers are great, Hatteberg was better value, despite having a bigger salary. For what it is worth, Hatteberg was also better in his Athletic career than Pena's Tiger (Pena was traded to Detroit by the A's) career. The big number for Beane and the A's though was OBP (on base percentage), and in 2002 it wasn't even close. Hatteberg had a .374 OBP, and Pena had just a .302. Pena had a PAPP of 2.88, while Hatteberg had a better PAPP of 2.57. Pena's PPG was a bad .875, while Hatteberg's was a better, but still not great .99. So yes, it seems that Beane was right, the stats were on his side in the Pena versus Hatteberg fight.

Moneyball Review: Carlos Pena

Art Howe loved Carlos Pena in Moneyball

A point of contention during the whole movie of Moneyball is Carlos Pena. Manager Art Howe wanted to play Pena because he claimed that he was a better first baseman, while Beane wanted Hatteberg to play because he "got on base" (I will address Pena versus Hatteberg in another article). Beane ends up trading Pena away so Howe couldn't play him anymore. In reality, the Athletics sent Pena, Jeremy Bonderman, and Franklyn German to the Tigers, and got Ted Lilly, John-Ford Griffin and Jason Arnold from the Yankees, and much needed cash from the Tigers. In 4 years as a Tiger, Pena posted a 1.3 WAR. In his final year as a Tiger, he made 2.75 million and posted a 0 WAR, giving him a bad WASP of 5500. Jeremy Bonderman (who was originally the "player to be named later") spent 03-10 with the Tigers, posting a 5.6 WAR. However, he made 41 million in his time there, giving him a horrible WASP of 7380. Franklyn German spent 4 years with Detroit, but couldn't figure it out at a -.2 WAR. As far as the players the Athletics received, Ted Lilly played a year and a half with the A's, pitching 201.2 innings. He earned a 2.3 WAR in this time while making just $453,575 in that time (and part of that could be offset with the money the A's got in the trade), giving him a phenomenal WASP of 197.2. Griffin and Arnold never played for the A's in the Majors, but Lilly alone seems to tilt this trade to the Athletics. The Tigers got better overall WAR in the trade, but the Athletics got much more value.

Moneyball review: Part 1

Over the next few days (or weeks, who knows) I will be posting about Moneyball the movie. Most of the posts will be about the actual trades Billy Beane made at the time, and will try to use some of the same methods (along with some of my own) they used to see if the moves actually worked. However, I would like to give a short review. I am no movie critic, and have no skill grading acting, so I am just giving an opinion. With that said, if you consider yourself a baseball fan, you need to watch this movie. It is now my favorite baseball movie. They used a nice mixture of actual game-footage and simulated acting for game moments, and its the best I have seen in a sports movie. Because it's based on real life events, we don't get the crummy storylines included in many sports movies. The players are real, and the story-line is (mostly, at least) real. Great job on research to not only know all the players involved with the A's but also the players on other teams (I was caught in quite a few "o yeah, I forgot about that" moments, such as that Raul Ibanez played with the Kansas City Royals for a time). For those not baseball fans, it is a good underdog story, with slight political overtones, its the rich versus the poor, the fortunate versus the not so much. Whether sportsy or not, its a good story-line, the good guy doesn't necessarily win, and life is complicated. Of course, the cast is very good as well, headlined by Brad Pitt (for the female viewer, there are many scenes of him working out, and probably one two many closeups of his chest area) and Jonah Hill. A minor complaint might be that Carlos Pena looks nothing like Carlos Pena in the movie, although that is really hard to cast (Jeremy Giambi didn't look like Giambi either). Other than that, there is not a lot to complain about. There are some kind of soft, mushy moments, but they don't over do it, and they seem appropriate. I think everyone should at least give this movie a chance, and I will give it an A-.

The obligatory Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder article

Everyone who follows baseball knows, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder will be free agents at the end of the season. In the past 4 years, Pujols has registered a 31.8 WAR, a 27.4 offensive WAR and a 3.8 defensive WAR. That means his average year (in the past 4 years) is 7.95 WAR, 6.85 O-WAR, .95 D-WAR. He is making 16 million dollars this year (with a 5.3 WAR) and has a WASP around the Halladay Standard at 3018. However, if he made 16 million in his average year, his WASP would be a solid 2013. His average year merits a 23.8 million dollar a year contract according to the Halladay Standard. Prince Fielder is a slightly different story. His WAR in the past 4 years is 15.9, 17.9 O-WAR, -2 D-WAR. He is making 15.5 million this year, (and with a WAR of 4.7) making his WASP pretty bad, at 5741 (Carlos Pena of the rival Cubs is slightly more efficient). His average WAR is 3.975, 4.475 O-WAR, -.5 D-WAR. According the Halladay Standard, his average season deserves 11.925 million dollars. Back to Pujols, since the minimum wage for Major League players is at $400,000, if he ends up making 23.850 million dollars, that would be equal to 60 minimum wage players. It would be nearly impossible to argue that Albert Pujols is worth 60 players, even minimum wage bubble players. Think about it, would you rather bring Albert Pujols to spring training, or 60 pre-arbitration major and minor league players?  The 60 players would only have to equal a .1325 WAR a piece to equal Pujol's production. Unless your a big money team with no worries about money or efficiency (especially because of injuries, can you imagine paying Pujols 23 million to sit on the DL because he tore up his knee in spring training?), it would be just goofy to sign Pujols to what he is worth.

Big Time Slugger or Speedster who doesn't strikeout? Which would you rather have?

A theoretical debate in baseball has always gone something like this: "Would you rather have a guy that strikes out a lot and is slow, but hits tons of home runs, or a guy who is fast and rarely strikes out, but can't hit the long ball?". We have seen this in criticism of Ichiro Suzuki (before this lackluster year), as critics insist he is overrated because he only cares about hits (his next one will tie him with Mickey Mantle, and this doesn't count any of his hits in Japan) and doesn't hit home runs. So I wanted to take 4 real examples of current players' best seasons (2 sluggers and 2 speedsters) and see what the key saber-metric statistic, WAR (Wins after Replacement Player), had to say on the debate. For Brett Gardner of the Yankees (clearly in the speedster category), his best year was 2010, when he had a .383 OBP, 47 RBIs, 47 steals, with 101 strikeouts. His offensive WAR (we are going to ignore defense for this post) was 3.3. The other speedster I picked was, of course, Ichiro. His best offensive season was his first year in America, where he had a OBP of .381, 56 stolen bases, 69 RBIs, 8 homers, and 53 strikeouts. This gave him a WAR of 6.2 on offense. The first slugger I picked is pretty obvious, Ryan Howard. He has some of the highest single season strikeout totals in National League history. His best year was in 2006, when he had a .425 OBP, 181 strikeouts OPS of 1.084, with 58 bombs, and 149 RBIs. His WAR was 5.6. The second slugger I picked was Carlos Pena. His best year was in 2007, when he had an OBP of .411, 142 strikeouts, 46 homers, 121 RBIs, and a OPS of 1.037. His offense WAR was 5.9. There are plenty of more sluggers and speedsters that we could evaluate, but looking at just these 4 seem to show that both the slugger and the speedster are equally valuable.