Behind the Improvement of Josh Donaldson

One of the dumbest baseball articles I ever wrote was last year when I wrote that Luke Hughes was an improvement over Josh Donaldson. Hughes would play all of 4 games for the Athletics, and then be demoted to AAA, then AA, then released. He would finish the year with the Blue Jays AAA, and as far as I know, is out of baseball. Donaldson however, has emerged into a really nice player. He would finish 2012 with acceptable numbers, though still below average. In 2013, Donaldson has become a well above average player, even if you don't believe the defensive numbers. While BABIP has helped, his walk and strikeout numbers have legitimately improved.

So far this year, he is seeing a lower velocity than he was before 2013,  87.5 MPH versus the 2013 86.81 MPH on average. His swinging strikes are coming on harder pitches (86.96 MPH before 2013, 87.85 MPH in 2013), but there isn't a real difference in the average velocity of the pitches he is swinging at (87.58 MPH before 2013, 87.24 MPH in 2013). The average pitcher he is seeing, by release point, is about the same, though slightly shorter (5.88 v, -6 h before 2013, 5.83 v, -.57 h in 2013), and he is swinging at missing at pitchers that are more out right-handed than before this year (5.84 v, -.84 h before 2013, 5.84 v, -1.07 h in 2013). This would seem to be an improvement, as it is more likely that far out right-handers are the ones that are making him miss rather than more standard pitchers. However, he is swinging at pitches that are more likely to be shorter and further out right-handed before this year (5.89 v, -.6 h before 2013 and 5.84 v, -.66 h in 2013).

As far as location goes, here is Donaldson's average strike zone, broken down between 2013 and before 2013:

The big difference is the whiffs. Donaldson is now swinging through pitches further outside and further up than he had in the past. Donaldson is whiffing a lot less in 2013, going from a hitter who was whiffing more than average, to below average, becoming a better contact hitter (which is another reason the success is most likely real rather than a hot streak). Since the average pitch he swings at is no more or less horizontal, it suggests that a change in approach isn't helping him avoid swinging and missing, that he is just able to make more contact.

With that said, it does seem that the approach is better, not just because of his improved BB% and lessened O-Swing %, but because he is being pitched a little further out on average, and yet his average swing is staying the same horizontal, and on pitches more up in the zone as well. He is making pitches come up more, giving him a chance to drive the ball better.

Out of the 44 pitches he has seen at 95 MPH or more (as of the time I was writing this article), with 8 swinging strikes (18.2 %) with just 5 contact plays (11.4 %). Before 2013, he saw 68 pitches 95 MPH or over, whiffing at 14 of them (20.6 %) with 9 contact plays (13.2%). So he hasn't improved against plus fastballs, and that is probably the best way to get him out, so it seems hard to argue that his bat speed has improved. Instead, the average velocity data above shows that it is more likely he has improved on slow stuff. So I looked at the 100 slowest pitches he has seen in 2013 and before 2013. He is whiffing less at the slow pitches, almost all curveballs, (9 whiffs before 2013 and 6 whiffs in 2013), but is making slightly less contact as well (19 contact plays to 17 contact plays). This suggests that he just isn't swinging at as many slow pitches as he was (but also suggests that he is a good breaking ball hitter).

More than anything, it seems that Donaldson's skill set hasn't really changed, he is just being more discriminate at what pitches he is swinging at, making them come more inside on him. This seems to be why he has improved both in walks and power.

Kentucky and Mississipi Draft Notes: Mayers, Grundy, and Bailey

Here are notes on three of the pitchers that were drafted in the 2013 MLB draft from the Universities of Mississippi and Kentucky based on the SEC network broadcast gun in a SEC tournament matchup.

Mike Mayers is a right-handed pitcher drafted by the Cardinals in the 3rd round (93th overall) out of Ole Miss. He has two successful years as a starter, with basically identical seasons in 2012-2013.

Fastball with armside tail that he can sink: 87-93 MPH, 89.5 MPH.

As far as breaking balls and off-speed pitches, he threw pitches from anywhere from 76 to 82 MPH. It appeared to me that he had 3 different pitches besides his fastball, with a change that seemed to be harder than the other pitches (about 80-82 MPH), a slider that seemed to be a tick slower (78-80 MPH), and a curveball that was a little slower. The movement did appear to be different, but one could make the argument that the slider just got somewhat slurvy at times. Without looking at grips or interviewing the pitcher, I don't know how to be sure.

Jerad Grundy is a short senior lefty picked in the 10th round by the Oakland Athletics (311st overall). He was taken by the Twins in the 27th round in 2012, and the Rangers in the 46th round out of high school in 2009. He originally went to the University of Miami, but only threw 17.2 innings and spent the next year at Heartland Community College before two years at Kentucky. He wasn't a strikeout pitcher, but lowered his walk rate in his senior year (though he did see a home run rate increase).

Grundy was a little more difficult to classify. He maxed out at 88 MPH, and probably threw more glove side than arm side. The only real off-speed pitch he showed was a changeup he threw 75-79 MPH (about 76.5 MPH average). He would throw the pitch to both lefties and righties, it wasn't a pitch with usage that was dictated by platoon (the radar gun registered a few 65-67 MPH readings, but I don't really trust those).

Outside of that, he threw pitches from 84 MPH to 88 MPH. It would seem that he had a 2-seam or sinker, along with the harder 4-seam fastball, as he would sit 84-85 MPH at times and 87-88 MPH times.

Tanner Bailey is a 6-7 right-handed reliever that was picked by the Tigers out of Ole Miss in the 32nd round (966th overall). He is a senior that spent his first two years at Texarkana College. Strikeout and walk ratios actually went down from his junior year to his senior year at Mississippi. He has already signed and pitched in a game in the New York Penn League.

Used as a closer by Ole Miss, but very unlikely to have that role in professional baseball as his fastball was 88-91 MPH (89.36 MPH average). He was fastball heavy in his one outing, but he appeared to have 2 different breaking pitches, a slider at 83-84 MPH and a curveball at 81 MPH.

Darwin Perez Scouting Report

Darwin Perez is a middle infielder that signed with the Athletics as a minor league free agent after 6 seasons in the Angels system. While Nathaniel Stolz loved the signing, I didn't find him that exciting statistically, since he repeated the most offensively friendly AA in 2012 and got worse by about .100 OPS points. He is just 23, and did have a positive FRAA at SS, but he didn't have a great FRAA and played a lot of 2nd base as well. He also was pretty good statistically in the Venezuelan Winter League, but there isn't a great reason to trust those numbers. 

With all this said, his name came up again when I noticed that he ranked 38th out of the 475 players in the odds system I created once you add defense and baserunning. That was right behind Leury Garcia, another middle infielder, but one that is considered a real prospect and is someone I really liked when I watched him. So this caught my eye, and I decided I needed to see a little more of Perez and take a better look at him.

A switch hitter, Perez is still small, listed at 5-10 160, and he looks even smaller when you watch him play. His bat seems pretty quick, and he seems to have at least decent bat control. He will show an uppercut swing on low pitches as a left-hander but looks almost like a completely different hitter from the right side. As a lefty, his stance is more open, but on the right side, it is more closed. Statistically, he has been slightly better with a lefty, with almost exact same power numbers on both sides, but better average and walks as a lefty. His swing as a lefty is a little better, as he seems a little stiff as a right-hander and doesn't have the body and bat control he showcases as a left-hander. Obviously with both his body type and career slugging numbers, there isn't much reason to think he will suddenly develop into a power hitter.

In the field, he shows plenty of athleticism and range and his arm seems to be solid as well. John Sickels suggested that he is better suited for 2nd base, which would make him a lot less interesting. His throwing motion is a little odd (he drops down sidearm), but I think that the arm is not bad.

I got him at about 4.16 to 4.24 to 1st base from the left side, which is roughly average (he was predictably a little quicker bunting). For the type of player he is, that is not overly impressive. Speed Score has him as a better than average runner, but not really elite or anything special. With the questions that come with his bat (and perhaps even positionally), it would be really nice if he was a better
 runner.

Overall, it is pretty hard to see Perez being an impact player in the big leagues. He isn't good with the bat anyway, and I think there is a chance he will only be even workable on just the left side of the plate. He can play some defense in the middle infield, which should eventually get him in the big leagues (and considering all the shortstops they have lost, the Angels could have used him), but he isn't an elite enough defender or a good enough runner to start in the big leagues. While his career minor league 11.9 BB % is impressive, he hasn't hit for much average and I would expect it to drop in the upper levels as pitchers just throw more strikes to him. We have already seen this somewhat, as his peripherals really dropped in 2012. Assuming that he doesn't suddenly start hitting for an extreme average, Perez is basically going to be a utility player that may hang around for a few years thanks to decent defense up the middle.

Blake Treinen and Age Adjustments

The Washington Nationals acquired Blake Treinen from the Oakland Athletics as part of the deal that sent Michael Morse to the Mariners and John Jaso to the A's. Treinen was a 7th round pick out of South Dakota State in 2011 (a year after being a 23rd round pick by the Florida Marlins) by the A's

In 2012, he spent the entire year in the California League as a 24 year old in which league average age was 23.2 for pitchers and 22.5 for hitters. He threw 103 innings, mostly as a starter with a 3.43 SIERA, 3.55 kwERA, and 95 FIP - (using both league and one year park factor). Of course, common prospect wisdom tells us (if not to just ignore minor league, especially pitchers, numbers altogether) that numbers put up by pitchers too old for a league mean nothing really.

To test this, I looked at pitchers that were too old (at least 1 full year above league average) for their league in the Cal League from 2005-2009 (giving them time to reach the Majors or fail). For ones that made the Majors, I put the average Cal League FIP - from that year in the parenthesis. I also added their average velocity as another informative variable.

2009 Cal League:
2 out of 38 (77 FIP -), 90.4 MPH
2008:  2 out of 23 (98 FIP -) 91.2 MPH
2007: 4 out of 38 (77 FIP -), 90.4 MPH
2006: 2 out of 27 (88 FIP -), 89.55 MPH
2005: 7 out of 41 (76 FIP -), 88.62 MPH

So it seems that the older pitchers that made the Majors were better than Treinen was in A+ statistically, but they didn't throw very hard. They could have been old for the level because the teams didn't believe in the pitchers because they threw so soft but overwhelming numbers somewhat forced them to give them a look. Just from a cursory look, they didn't appear to be very good in the Majors (which is expected because of the velocity), but I didn't factor that in.

Now what about 25 year olds in AA, since that is what Treinen will be next year (I am assuming)? Since he will be pitching in the Eastern League for the Nationals organization, I looked there from 2006-2009 (giving the players plenty of time to sort out their careers). Since there were a large number of them older than 24, I only included 25-26 year olds and this time, I looked at how they did it in the Majors.

2009: 6 out of 26 made the Majors with a total of -1.5 WAA. Average FB of 91.15
2008: 11 out of 27 made the MLB and had a -5.5 WAA with Average FB of 90.04
2007: 12 out of 32 made the MLB and had a -6 WAA with Average FB of 89.32
2006: 4 out of 24 made the MLB and had a -2.3 WAA with Average FB of 88.15

Almost without exception, these pitchers were unsuccessful in the big leagues and had weak to slightly below average fastballs (it is interesting that it went up every year). So what about Treinen? He doesn't seem to fit fully in this group, as he has hit 95 MPH on his fastball. So one the one hand, he wasn't as dominant for his league despite his advanced age as we have seen other older pitchers that ended up making the big leagues. However, he throws harder, and we know fastball velocity is more important than minor league statistics. So I went back and watched Treinen on MiLB.TV. His delivery reminds me of Scott Patterson somewhat as a really tall pitcher with a noisy delivery that seems really jerky (this seems to be a reason why most view Treinen as a reliever long term). The comparisons stop there though as Treinen's fastball is better (he was around 93 MPH on June 26th) and he has a high leg kick, unlike Patterson. He seems to get some decent sink as well

He is said to have a cutter, but it looked like his moving fastball as it moved more arm side than glove side (which is what you would expect a cutter to do).
He also reportedly throws a curve, but it must not be a big part of his repertoire, as I didn't see it, which is a big difference between him and Patterson obviously. 
His change fades arm side and he seemed to have problems getting it down. He seemed to throw it a lot, but I would expect him to ditch it if he ever goes to the bullpen. If he goes there, I expect him to be a guy who throws hard, hard, and harder. In the rotation, I don't really expect him to miss many bats, and instead having to rely on command and ground-balls.

Dariel Alvarez Scouting Report

Dariel Alvarez (along with Aledmys Diaz) appears to be the latest Cuban native that has defected to pursue a MLB career. The 24 year old (soon to turn 25) right-handed outfielder reportedly stands at 6-2 190. He is currently playing winter ball in Mexico (not the official MLB version, but the Vera Cruz league) where he has been rather mediocre. While he is second in doubles, he only has 3 homers (to be in the top ten you need 9) and a mediocre OBP. 

He mainly played left-field in the Cuban Serie Nacional, with some center and right. According to Clay Davenport's ratings, he was below average defensively. His speed was also rated slightly below average according Davenport's formula. If you use traditional speed score ratings, Alvarez obviously rates below average with 13 steals over 5 seasons, with 21 caught stealings. Reports do seem to say that he has an above average arm, which may help him profile in right-field.

With the bat, when he first jumped into the league, he predictably struggled at age 19. He got incrementally better each year offensively until his last year in 2011 where he would hit .363/.404/.613. According to Clay Davenport's projections (which basically treats the CSN like A-ball), that year projects to a .303/.327/.494 season. If the statistics I am seeing are correct, he has insanely low walk and strikeout rates, and his 2011 would translate to just 12 walks and 33 strikeouts over 611 at-bats (when you include the previous years, there are many more strikeouts). This is something you would normally see in a slap hitting middle infielder, not a corner outfielder. It seems that Davenport conservatively projected Yeonis Cespedes in 2012, as he was a 3 win player in 2012 with the A's, with a .356 OBP and .505 SLG. Davenport had both his OBP and SLG lower by about .050 each. Cespedes did have a somewhat high BABIP, but he also played in a pretty pitcher friendly park (and as far as I know, the Davenport projection was neutralized, not taking into account Oakland's ballpark), so one could say those roughly even out. If you still want to neutralize the BABIP, assuming that Cespedes is not a naturally high BABIP player, and see how Cespedes would have hit with a .300 BABIP, we get a .260 batting average with a .324 OBP. This is still a little better than league average (and doesn't factor in his above average power), and still about .010 points of batting average higher than Davenport projected and nearly .025 points of OBP better. He walked a little more than expected, but he also hit for a slightly higher batting average. Now, it would most likely be foolish to just add those extra points onto Alvarez' projection, or even to scrap Davenport's projections altogether. Instead, lets look at the differences statistically between Cespedes and Alvarez. While Alvarez had solid but low K/BBs, Cespedes actually walked more than he struck out the last three years he was in Cuba (and he was criticized, by me as well, for his plate discipline). Cespedes pretty consistently hit for more power than Alvarez as well, though Alvarez' SLG in 2011 was very comparable to Cespedes' last three seasons. Defensively, Cespedes' was ranked as a very solid defender (with a couple of really awesome seasons) by Davenport, but UZR, DRS, and FRAA all thought he was below average defensively in the Majors. From just personal observations from watching Cespedes throughout the year, it seemed he had enough athleticism to be a good defender, but really struggled with jumps and reads (though it seems that he did get better throughout the year). If Cespedes was rated positively by Davenport then negatively by the traditional defensive metrics when with the Athletics, it is probably not to much of a leap to assume that Alvarez will be rated very poorly as a defender in the MLB. 

From watching video of Alvarez, it is clear that he has a large and somewhat violent stride to start his swing. He holds his bat up high and seems to uppercut his swing. The bat seems plenty quick and he seems to have good control of it (note that most of what I saw was just batting practice). 

His lack of apparent tools and positional value makes it imperative that he really hits. While for some reason I was under the impression that offensive statistics took a big jump from 2010 to 2011 in Cuba, this doesn't actually seem to be the case. So, at least statistically, there seems to be reason to believe that Alvarez has developed as he has aged and that his last year in Cuba was at least somewhat real. Using Davenport's methods, he would be an above average hitters in the Majors, with a low walk rate, but good average and power. This might be enough to make up for a lack of speed or defense and have him as a traditional corner outfielder with a big arm and big power. I thought somewhat of Nelson Cruz as a lazy comp, but if you only look at Cruz' road numbers (neutralizing the Ballpark in Arlington factor), Alvarez projects as a better hitter. While his mechanics as described above aren't necessarily pretty or perfect, he has the bat speed in my opinion, and could be a legitimate big league starter.

Padres and Athletics Trade Evaluation: Andrew Werner

This is the 3rd article breaking down the trade between the Padres and Athletics that included Tyson Ross, A.J. Kirby-Jones, Andrew Werner, and Andy Parrino.

Andrew Werner is a 25 year old undrafted lefty that was signed out of the Independent ball in 2010 where he was good (though not great statistically) after a good career at the University of Indianapolis.

Werner made 8 starts at the end of the year for the Padres, making his big league debut. 5 of those starts were in the friendly PETCO park, but they were still pretty mediocre, with a 113 FIP -, struggling with homers (1.12 HR/9IP) with 4 of the 5 homers coming at home. The 40.1 innings is obviously a small sample size, but he did have a decent strikeout rate and a solid K/BB. He was a pretty extreme ground-baller and had a good infield fly-ball percentage. He was horrible against righties, with a .372 wOBA against, while he was very good against lefties, with a 2.51 FIP, including no homers allowed.

He actually has more MLB innings than AAA innings, as he spent most of the 2012 season in AA (103 innings). He pitched in a really friendly pitcher park there, but was extremely effective, with a SIERA of 1.10 better than league average and a FIP about 25% better than league average. If you estimate (with a home park factor of 92) that he was getting about 8% of help from his park, he was still 17% better than league average, or roughly a 83 FIP - or 3.28 adjusted FIP. This still puts him (he was the FIP leader before the adjustment) as the 2nd best pitcher in the Texas League with a minimum of 100 innings (Jose Cisnero as the leader, who was okay in Lancaster in 2011 and decent in the PCL in a short sample size in 2012. Cisnero pitched in an extreme pitcher park, which makes his results somewhat more interesting, at least statistically). In AA, he showed the same tendencies he showed in the Majors. as far as ground-ball rate, decent strikeout rate, relatively low walk rate, but without the infield fly-balls and without the homers. While he was better against lefties in AA, he was still very solid against righties. In fact, he faced a ton of them, as he faced just 79 lefties versus 348 righties! In fact on July 9th, he faced NW Arkansas who ran out an entire starting lineup full of right-handed batters. It wasn't his sharpest outing, but Werner proved to be serviceable nevertheless, with a 45 game score but 1.80 FIP in a place that has a 110 Park Factor.

Whatever he was doing to get righties out in AA, it wasn't working in the Majors. Without real pitch selection data in the minors, we will look instead at how he attacked right-handed batters in the Majors using Brooks Baseball:

Against lefties, he is very heavy with his fastball and starts a lot of counts with the curveball, but throws the slider and change about equally. He doesn't have a "go-to strikeout pitch" against either lefties or righties, but he throws his fastball the most against lefties in those situations and his change against righties. His curve is not a pitch he gets strikeouts with, as he simply doesn't throw it with 2 strikes, which I find odd. Compare this to another "pitchability lefty" in Patrick Corbin, who uses his curveball as a finisher against both lefties and righties:

It is weird that Werner doesn't rely heavily on his curveball since he has a well below average fastball at 88.1 MPH (average in his MLB stint). Out of the 30 qualified starters in 2012 with the lowest average fastball velocity, 26 of them throw curveballs (All more than 4% of the time. R.A. Dickey, a knuckleballer does not throw a curveball), and 18 of them throw it more than 10 % of the time (3 over 20% of the time). Corbin was not a qualified starter, but he averaged 90.6 MPH on his fastball in 107 innings, and threw his curveball (misidentified as a slider by FanGraphs) 17% of the time. Perhaps it isn't fair to compare the two curveballs, as Corbin's is 7 MPH faster.

Instead, Werner relies instead on a mix of pitches, throwing a sinker (according to Fangraphs), splitter, change, curve, and slider. He mainly throws the sinker (or fastball) and change, with 72.7% of his pitches being one or the other (and the slider being 13.2% of the time). In velocity, his change is most similar to those of James McDonald (a relatively effective starter that previously threw his change a lot, but according to FanGraphs, has almost ditched the pitch. As far as opponents hitting it, it has actually been a good pitch, with a 71 wRC + against) and Jeremy Sowers (out of the Majors since 2009 after an okay career, he threw his change more than any other off-speed pitch, but it wasn't effective as opponents had a 119 wRC + against it). In horizontal movement, Werner's change is most similar to the changeups of to Greg Smith and Kevin Hart. Smith was pretty poor in his 229.1 innings in the Majors, especially his time with the Colorado Rockies. He spent 2012 with the Angels' AAA in the PCL and wasn't very good with a FIP .039 worse than league average and a SIERA .035 worse than league average. His change was his most used off-speed pitch and his most consistently effective in his MLB time. Kevin Hart got 119.2 innings in the Majors, splitting between the bullpen and the rotation. It didn't go very well and he hasn't pitched in affiliated ball since 2010 (he had shoulder surgery in 2011). His changeup was thrown only rarely and was extremely ineffective. In vertical movement, Werner's change compares to Edinson Volquez and Rubby De La Rosa. Edinson Volquez being compared to Werner in any way is humorous, but the serviceable (if not extremely frustrating) now former teammate of Werner throws his changeup over 25 % of the time and his change is one of his more effective pitches (his fastball and sinker are his pitches that have not been good). De La Rosa has had arm problems and has been okay at best (below league average according to FIP - and ERA -) in 61.1 career big league innings. His change has been his worst pitch according to batted ball data.

So it seems that the data on his change seems to be mixed and his slider doesn't seem to be even an average pitch (when compared to other sliders). With that said, it seems that at worst he is a LOOGY. The Athletics were .50 points of FIP worse against left-handed hitting than right-handed hitting in 2012. He could fill in the role of Brian Fuentes, who was released in the middle of the season and then retired, as a lefty specialist and allow Sean Doolittle to take the more high leverage situations (and use Travis Blackley in a more swing man role). One could say he is the kind of guy the A's need as a low ceiling (he is most likely a 5th starter/emergency at best) but high floor (he has some MLB role) as they try
to put together another contending team. It seems that Tyson Ross could possibly have a bigger role in the Majors before it all shakes out, but Werner is a more secure piece.

Padres and Athletics Trade Evaluation: A.J. Kirby-Jones

Here I am continuing my breakdown of the trade between the A's and Padres that involved Tyson Ross, A.J. Kirby-Jones, Andy Parrino, and Andrew Werner. This post will focus on A.J. Kirby-Jones, who is going from the Athletics to the Padres. He was drafted in the 9th round by the A's in 2010. Kirby-Jones is a first baseman/DH, so obviously the value is tied up in his bat as he doesn't really have any other tools (he runs a pretty laughable 4.92 to first). He is short (5-10) but stocky (listed at 215) and recently turned 24 years old.

Kirby-Jones played the entire year in the California League, which inflates offensive statistics. However, his team, the Stockton Ports, play in a park that is less hitter friendly than most in the league (95 one year Park Factor). This is why it isn't surprising that he hit much better on the road. It doesn't explain the .173 point difference in BABIP (!), or why he walked more and hit less ground-balls on the road though. His road statistics were crazy, as he walked over 20 % of the time, with a .232 ISO in 56 games on the road (although he hit 1 more homer at home). Overall, in 114 games, Kirby walked 17.5 % of the time (nearly 9% above league average) while striking out 25.9 % of the time (5.8% of the time more than average). His ISO was .061 above league average and he had a 110 wOBA + and 120 OPS + (121 wRC +). This is right in line with how he hit in 2011 in A-ball (113 wOBA +, 126 OPS +, 125 wRC +) after he destroyed A- in 2010 (125 wOBA +, 155 OPS +, 156 wRC +).

Kirby-Jones is much better against lefties than righties (the split was worse in 2012 than it was 2011) but it isn't like he is completely incapable of hitting without the platoon advantage (which is important from right-handed batters, as left-handed platoon bats are more valuable than right-handed platoon bats).

In college, he made a run for the national lead in homers, though Perfect Game liked fellow slugger Paul Hoilman better. Hoilman was picked in the 19th round by the Cubs in 2011 and after a good 2011 in A -, he was only about league average in A-ball in 2012.

Kirby-Jones' swing seems pretty quick, but it is not the prettiest. He uses somewhat of a leg kick to get the swing started (which isn't a big deal, it is a timing technique, stating that he does so is more descriptive than anything else) and it seems long. It looks like that perhaps a pitcher could jam him inside, not because of bat speed, but because it is just a long swing in general. It can also be extremely violent at times and he doesn't necessarily start it on time occasionally, which can make him late. Whether this is plate discipline, timing, eye, or a hitch in his swing, I am not entirely sure. He does have good plate coverage though, which is perhaps a little surprising since he isn't exactly tall, but evidently his arms are long enough (or perhaps his swing is long enough) to go get low pitches away.

He is the kind of guy who can have some success in a bench role on a NL team (which is obviously what the Padres are) as a pinch hitter. He could also turn out to be a minor league slugger that doesn't translate to the Majors. He could be anyone from 2009-2011 Eric Hinske or Mike Cervenak. I think AA next year will tell us a lot, as he won't be older than the competition like he has been in the lower levels.

Padres and Athletics Trade Evaluation: Tyson Ross

The Padres have traded Andy Parrino and Andrew Werner to the Oakland Athletics for Tyson Ross and A.J. Kirby-Jones. What I believe I am going to do is break this trade into 4 parts, one post for each player. It may not turn out that way (I could combine a couple, or I could give up before I am done with all of them), but I am going to try to write scouting reports on each player (and then maybe we will be able to make a judgment on the trade).

Last year, I thought Tyson Ross was a good comparison for Rangers' rookie reliever Robbie Ross 

Robbie Ross in 2012: 77 FIP -, 62.4 GB %, 2.04 K/BB

Tyson Ross in 2012: 119 FIP -, 49.6 GB %, 1.24 K/BB

..Oops

To be fair, Robbie did all of his work in the bullpen while Tyson was used mainly as a starter. Tyson Ross has now pitched in 53 games in the Majors, starting 21, totalling up to 148 innings. It hasn't gone real well so far, with a 106 FIP -. His problems has not been homers (.73 HR/9IP, .56 HR/9IP on the road). His problem has been his K/BB. He has not struck out a lot of batters (just 15.6 %) and he has walked quite a bit of batters (10.7 %). His problem is specifically against left-handed batters, as he has been awful against them, striking out just one more batter than he has walked. Against righties (he has faced both about 50% of the time), he at least strikes out 2 per every walk (though both rates are really still below average). With that said, he has gotten a better GB % and HR/FB % against lefties. In AAA this year, those traits mostly held, as he had a better GB % against lefties but his FIP/SIERA and K/BB was better against righties. The difference was that he was better at limiting home runs against righties. This is probably more predictive. If we lazily assume that the Padres use him in the bullpen and have him face 2 righties for every lefty, we can project a 4.15 FIP. Of course, this should go down a little thanks to PETCO, but that still isn't very good for a reliever. Mark Buerhle had a 4.18 FIP (obviously as a starter) in a park that played neutral (100 Park Factor) and that translated to a 107 FIP -. This would put him about 106th out of 136 qualified relievers in 2012 (with Kameron Loe, Jose Arredondo, Jared Hughes). Statistically, it is really hard to love Ross. What about from a scouting or (more accurately) Pitch F/X standpoint?

Ross brings an above average fastball to the table, averaging anywhere from 92.5 MPH to 93.47 MPH (touching up to 97.7 MPH). He is very fastball heavy, throwing the 4 seamer 40 % of the time and his sinker 28% of the time. His main breaking pitch is a slider at 24% of the time while throwing a changeup just 9% of the time mainly against lefties. While it is still hard to judge off-speed pitches using Pitch F/X data (I usually compare movement data, but that doesn't take into account the control of a pitch. Using batted ball data can be useful over large sample sizes, but it is also noisy. For instance, is a high or low BABIP on a pitch just randomness or luck, or is it because the pitch is being hit especially hard or especially soft? While GB/LD/FB is helpful, it doesn't differentiate between a hard ground-ball and soft ground-ball. Using batted ball distance from Baseball Heat Maps is useful, but can be misleading if you have a bad infield and ground-balls are going 150-200 feet because no one in the infield gets to them before the outfielder gets to ball), considering that Ross is so bad against lefties, it is probably safe to say it isn't a great pitch. The small sample size doesn't really allow us to gather anything from batted ball data, but the ground-balls he gets against lefties (more than right-handers as stated above) is not from the changeup. His best ground-ball pitch is, as you would expect, his sinker. For a sinker/slider guy, which is what Ross is, the slider has to be the out pitch (or you have to have really good command and avoid walks, which is something Ross obviously doesn't have). Small Sample Size alerts apply (605-624 pitches thrown), but it seems to be that kind of pitch for him, at least according to GB/FB/LD/K. It is the pitch that he likes to throw the most when he is ahead and the pitch that he gets the most strikeouts with by far. It is the pitch he gets the most swings and swings and misses with, and he throws strikes with it (not necessarily in the zone obviously) about 64% of the time, a good percentage.

So without 3 real MLB pitches, it is hard to see Ross as anything but a reliever. But could the fastball/sinker/slider (I realize that is 3 pitches, but he doesn't have two off-speed pitches that he can really throw, which is usually considered a prerequisite to starting) work in a relief role? Comparing his slider to other relievers, it's velocity (85.99 MPH on average) sits between Michael Wuertz and Ryan Perry in the Pitch F/X era. Wuertz slider was considered the hardest pitch in baseball to hit when he was on. Perry has not had much MLB success, but his slider was ranked high in the minors by scouting sites. In horizontal movement, his slider most compares to Luke Gregerson and Denny Bautista. Gregerson, a career reliever, has carved out quite a career with the San Diego Padres so far by throwing his slider nearly 60 % of the time (68.5 % of the time in 2012!). Bautista had a pretty poor MLB career, but was once ranked a high prospect. I believe the slider is what Bautista is throwing here (he pitched in Korea this year and thanks to Dan of @mykbo for the video):

In vertical movement, Ross' slider most compares to Jonathan Papelbon and Robert Parnell. Papelbon, one of the top relievers in baseball, mainly relies on his plus fastball, but the slider has been effective for him when he has used it. Parnell is a fastball heavy pitcher, and seems to have ditched his slider for a curveball, if Pitch F/X is to be believed. So the vertical movement is less impressive than the horizontal movement or velocity.

However, I think this is what the Padres see in him. Ross' best hope may be to turn into Josh Kinney, or even new teammate Luke Gregerson and become an extremely slider heavy reliever. His fastball velocity is above average, but it doesn't seem to be helping him. This can come with injury problems and he has a history of problems with his UCL, but if you are asking me what the Padres see in him, it is clearly the fastball/slider combo. The stuff should play in the bullpen, but I think his days as a starter should be over. 

Times to First: Part 18

1. Angel Castillo (Angels AA): 3.82 (on a bunt)

2. Angelys Nina (Rockies AA): 4.20

3. Carlos Ramirez (Angels AA): 7.09 (2nd to home)

4. Braeden Schlehuber (Braves A +): 4.59

5. Dan Black (White Sox A +): 12.62 (on a triple)

6. Denis Phipps (Reds): 11.30 (triple)

7. Shane Peterson (Athletics AAA): 4.16

8. Brad Miller (Mariners AA): 4.24

9. Odubel Herrera (Rangers A +): 4.05

10. Cheslor Cuthbert (Royals A +): 4.47

11. Tucker Barnhart (Reds AA): 4.43

12. Dwight Smith (Blue Jays A-): 4.45

13. Jonathan Garcia (Dodgers A +): 4.31

14. Nick Franklin (Mariners AAA): 11.43 (on a triple)

15. Joe Panik (Giants A+): 4.22

16. Jaff Decker (Padres AA): 4.35

17. Kentrail Davis (Brewers AA) 11.27 (on a triple)

18. Mikie Mahtook (Rays AA): 4.26

19. Gary Brown (Giants AA): 4.12

20. B.A. Vollmuth (Athletics A +): 4.48

Times to First: Part 8

1. Joaquin Arias (Giants): 4.20

2. Gregor Blanco (Giants): 3.58 (on a bunt)

3. Xavier Paul (Reds): 4.14

4. Robert Andino (Orioles): 4.33

5. Hanley Ramirez (Dodgers): 4.11

6. Juan Rivera (Dodgers): 4.55

7. Joe Mather (Cubs): 4.35

8. Kyle Hudson (Phillies AAA): 4.17

9. Leonys Martin (Rangers): 3.52 (on a bunt)

10. Brett Wallace (Astros): 4.40

11. Jimmy Rollins (Phillies): 4.18

12. Chase Utley (Phillies): 4.02

13. Luis Sardinas (Rangers Class A): 4.05

14. Jose Vinicio (Red Sox Class A): 3.7 (on a bunt)

15. David Murphy (Rangers): 4.25

16. Adam LaRoche (Nationals): 4.51

17. Jason Werth (Nationals): 4.08

18. Dayan Viciedo (White Sox): 4.23

19. Chris Carter (Athletics): 4.35

20. Allen Craig (Cardinals): 4.54

Times to first: Part 5

1. Jose Lobaton (Rays): 4.66

2. Francisco Peguero (Giants): 4.05

3. Jimmy Paredes (Astros): 4.12

4. Brandon Crawford (Giants): 4.15

5. Ben Zobrist (Rays): 4.27

6. Ian Kinsler (Rangers): 4.18

7. Brandon Barnes (Astros): 4.28

8. Jason Donald (Indians): 4.22

9. Jay Bruce (Reds): 4.22

10. Jason Kipnis (Indians): 4.15

11. Anthony Allioti (Athletics AA): 4.60

12. Guilder Rodriquez (Rangers AA): 4.24

13. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals): 4.37

14. Danny Espinosa (Nationals): 4.15

15. Omar Infante (Tigers): 4.14

16. Gerald Laird (Tigers): 4.16

17. Steve Lombardozzi (Nationals): 4.01

18. Byron Buxton (Twins RK): 4.15

19. Carlos Santana (Indians): 4.58

20. Matt Downs (Astros): 4.38

Minor League Pitchers Notes

Here are some short notes on just a few random minor league pitchers I have watched recently:

Brooks Brown in the Tigers AAA is a former 1st round pick. The righty has a 90 MPH fastball with a little bit of movement and a curveball. He throws too many pitches in the middle of the plate, but can get a lot of grounders if he can get it down. When I saw him, there wasn't much evidence he can. Brown has some real control issues, which is not a good combo with his mediocre stuff.

Helpi Reyes for the Jamestown Jammers can throw a curveball for a strike and get swings and misses on it when it is in the dirt. He throws pretty hard with a good fastball that he can locate low. Reyes also has a slider, but has less control over it. When I saw him, he got in trouble with walks.

Cody Wheeler of the Yakima Bears is a short lefty with a curveball, change (pretty good late movement, got whiffs), and fastball. Wheeler has a slow arm action and works pretty low with his fastball (you can probably can call it a sinker).

Victor Capellan is a drop down sidearmer from the Dominican Republic pitching for the Yakima Bears. He has good numbers even though he has no real idea where the ball is going. The pitches have good movement, both downward and sideways, and righties don't really stand a chance. It obviously doesn't look like he will be able out lefties.

Erik Jokisch for the Cubs AA is a lefty with a solid swing and miss changeup. He keeps the ball low, throws a ton of breaking pitches(looks like a curveball)/off speed. The fastball seems good enough, especially when he throws it high after starting low with off speed (pitching backwards).

Chris Manno of the Reds AA (came over in Johnny Gomes trade from Nationals) is a lefty reliever with a quirky delivery, in which he hides the ball behind his back and then throws sidearmed. It makes fastball look faster but I'm not sure how he will be able to get righties out (he did get one to fly-out on a fastball down the middle). The fastball stays high and I would like to see a breaking ball. He wasn't missing bats or getting many grounders.

Brady Wager in the Orioles New York Penn League affiliate is a righty at 91-93 MPH. He has no real secondary pitch though. Nathaniel Stolz of Beyond the BoxScore noted that he landed on a stiff leg and tended to rush his delivery.

Ben Snyder of the Rangers AAA was originally a 4th round pick in 2006. He is a little old to be considered a prospect and has a AAA lefty delivery (3/4 type with a LOOGY type release point). He  doesn't throw hard, with a lot of breaking balls (one of them being a slow curve). When he threw his change in the dirt (especially to lefties) it was a pretty good pitch, but he was getting hit pretty hard.

Bryan Mitchell of the Charleston Riverdogs (Yankees affiliate) is a skinny right-hander with a good looking straight fastball and a big curve. He can miss some bats with it. Mitchell will also throw a rare changeup. It is pretty good stuff for a 16th rounder but the fastball command is why he isn't getting good results.

Chad Pierce of the Brewers class A can throw a soft slider type pitch for a strike. The fastball is not all that impressive for the righty but he got swings and misses on the curve in dirt. It is a pretty slow pitch and Pierce can also throw it for strikes. Pierce has a moving fastball that he can throw to both sides of the plate, although it usually doesn't get down. This could be dangerous, especially if it moves into lefties with power . The straight fastball also got him in trouble, he needs to keep that pitch high above the zone.

Chris Lamb is a big lefty with a good looking changeup that can get him whiffs from righties. He also has a moving fastball/sinker with a curve. The curve is his swing and miss pitch and he can throw it for strikes (and has confidence throwing it with 3 balls). Along with the straight fastball, it is a pretty deep array of pitches.

Drew Granier pitches for the Burlington Bees (A's class A) with Lamb. He has a big curve ball with 2 plane break (meaning it moves both horizontally and vertically). It is the right-hander's feature and favorite pitch. He likes to throw it in the dirt, but can also throw it for a strike. Granier can locate his fastball on the corners and really appears to have swing and miss stuff. His moving fastball can both tail in and tail away to hitters from both sides.

Su-Min Jung was on Rehab (that was his official roster status, he has pitched as high as class A Peoria) in Boise, a shortseason affiliate for the Cubs. He has a low 90s fastball, a big curveball and a moving fastball. Can throw the curve for strikes but doesn't hang it. It is certainly his best pitch. It has some nice late bite, especially when he throws it low. Jung was basically pitching backwards when I saw him. The moving fastball was more of a sinker type pitch in movement. He didn't have much control of it.

Scouting Reports on the Midland Rockhounds and Frisco Roughriders

I went and saw the Frisco Roughriders (Rangers AA) play against the Midland Rockhounds (Athletics AA) play on Tuesday June 12th. It was a fun 14 inning game, on to the scouting reports:

Midland

Connor Crumbliss was the lead-off hitter for Midland and the small 5'8 170 player was what you want in your basic lead-off hitter. He had long at-bats. He was fooled on a 2-1 slider and fouled it in his first at-bat. He ended up walking though, laying off a high fastball. He had another long at-bat, where he struck out chasing a breaker. The 3rd time he worked a full count before fouling off a low 95 MPH fastball and then walked. He also had another walk. The patience is great, but he is so small that he certainly doesn't project to hit for much power, which is a problem if he is a corner outfielder. Anthony Aliotti chased a curve in the dirt to strikeout the first time, and then took 2 fastballs for strikes in his 2nd at-bat before meekly grounding out. Michael Choice is a big man with a big hack. He got jammed for an infield fly-ball in his first plate appearances. He also drove a ball in the gap and had another line drive for a single. He looks like a guy who will hit for a ton of power but swing and miss a lot. Jeremy Barfield (i.e. Baseclogger on Twitter) hit the ball pretty hard too, as he hit a fastball to reasonably deep left field after being late on 2. He hit another one hard to center field. In left field, he made a horrible read, but he has a good arm and can run too. I really like him, especially if his exploits out in the field are usually better than what I saw. Josh Horton had some mixed results out in 2nd before being taken out early for some reason.



Murphy Smith was the starter for Midland and he had weirdly inconsistent velocity. He was sitting 88-89 MPH at times, and then 92-93 MPH at other times. Obviously, he is much more interesting with the latter velocity. At first, I thought he just had a 2 seamer to go along with the 4-seamer, but it didn't look like there was any difference in the movement. He was really lacking in command of the pitch too, with a lot of balls. He also had a rare 86 MPH slider. That is not much speed differential. He was really fastball heavy, but he also threw a 79-81 MPH changeup. Both of his breaking pitches have some dip, but it doesn't seem like he can throw them for strikes. He was getting a lot of grounders, including one that was smoked for a run. He had a dominant 1-2-3 inning to the top of the order in the 3rd where he got 2 foul infield outs along with a comebacker. That was followed by a rough 4th inning with some bad luck and bad defense (some of it by himself).
James Simmons came in as a reliever and was throwing 89-91 MPH with a wild 78 MPH breaking ball. Paul Smyth immediately gave up a line drive shot by Mike Olt, but it was turned into an out. He was throwing 91 MPH with a 83 MPH slider. He walked 2 in a row and has sort of a low arm slot.
Arnold Leon wasn't showing much command but was 95-96 MPH on his fastball. Mike Olt was late 3 times in a row on it. He then struck out Profar on a slow curve, followed by another strikeout and another strikeout. He was downright dominant. He had a 82 MPH breaking pitch that was pretty wild. He has big league stuff, it is pretty obvious.

Carlos Hernandez had a 77 MPH pitch that moved like a 2-seamer, was probably a change. He once hit 84 MPH on a pitch that was straight, but the change looking pitch was his feature pitch, and it has some movement and deception and reached 80 MPH. He also showed a 69-71 MPH curve.



Frisco:
Roy Oswalt pitched, and you can find my analysis of him here. I will also have something on Frisco's Justin Grimm on fantasycpr.com.

Fabio Castillo came out of the bullpen and started out wild at 91-92 MPH. He then got up to 93-94 MPH and got a weak grounder which he made a play on. He then reached 95 MPH with good movement but not much control. He finally broke out a breaking pitch, an 84 MPH slider with decent movement. He blew away Aliotti with a 93 MPH fastball and then got a swinging strike for a strikeout on a slider. He got a nasty strikeout on a swinging strike on a moving 92 MPH fastball down and in. He along with Midland's Leon has big league stuff if he can ever harness it.

For Frisco's lineup, Leury Garcia showed off some nice range at 2nd base. He was pitched inside in his first at-bat, and stole a base after reaching. He had a 1 pitch infield out in his 2nd at-bat. Jurickson Profar is the real super prospect on Frisco, so I didn't feel the need to write a lot about him. In his first at-bat, he got ahead 3-1 before a big whiff on a moving fastball. He ended up walking on an outside pitch. The next at-bat started with a couple of fouls to get him behind 0-2. He took 2 breaking pitches before fouling back to the catcher on a high fastball. He then had a long at-bat where he battled back from 0-2 to get to a full count and he ended up hitting a deep fly-ball. Defensively, he booted the only ball hit hard to him. He also did 1st baseman type splits on a ball thrown to him by the pitcher but he couldn't come up with a low throw.
Mike Olt hit a hard ground-ball for a double play. In the 4th, he got to a 2-2 count and chased a slider but fouled it off. He ended up hitting a hard ground-ball up the middle. He hit another really hard grounder. Defensively, he is exceptional at 3rd base. The talk is moving him to third because of Adrian Beltre anchoring down 3rd. That would be a real shame. He also runs okay. Chris McGuinness played 1st and made a really brutal play defensively. However, he absolutely smoked 2 balls offensively.
Engel Beltre was a guy that I was interested in seeing. He has always been really toolsy but hasn't matched it with success at the plate. In his first at-bat, he took outside/middle for strike 1 on a fastball. He fouled off the next pitch, an inside fastball was taken before he fouled off a breaking pitch. He then chased one in the dirt for a strikeout. In at-bat 2, he took a low fastball, fouled off one the other way that was in the zone before popping up another fastball to the pitcher in foul territory. The next at-bat ended quickly, he grounded into a fielder's choice. The next time, he got up 2-0 before taking a strike and then grounding out. In his final at-bat, he fouled a bunt off before grounding out to first.
Defensively, he took a really poor route but used his speed to get to a ball. He used his speed to get to another ball that an average speed player probably wouldn't have caught. He also flashed off a good arm, but had weird mechanics, making him inaccurate at times. He fell down as he threw a ball to home. His arm in the game didn't seem to be as good as it was in between innings, as weird as that sounds.

Wilfredo Boscan was wild. He walked the first hitter and was 89-92 MPH. He got a strikeout on a fastball and also showed a 76-79 MPH slider looking pitch. He fooled Choice with it to get a whiff. It is slow, but it doesn't look like a curve at all. It does provide some good speed differential. He got 2 double plays.

Joseph Ortiz is short, but it doesn't really matter. He throws 91-92 MPH with an 84-85 MPH slider with some good movements. He got a couple swings and misses and got Aliotti to strikeout swinging
Ryan Rodebaugh had a 88-91 MPH fastball with a 79-80 MPH breaker that he could throw for strikes. He had a lead-off walk but got Choice to chase in the dirt for a strikeout. He also mixed in a 73 MPH pitch to get a strikeout of Crumbliss. He got another strikeout on it on a check swing. Barfield had a long at-bat after taking 2 fastballs down the middle. He really earned that single. He got Luke Hughes to swing through for a strikeout. As he had to keep pitching, his velocity dipped and he gave up a lot of fouls, but his breaking stuff was still good.
Carlos Pimentel was an almost sneaky 91-92 MPH, touching 93. He walked Crumbliss, but also had a 81-82 MPH slider with some decent drop and late break. He couldn't throw strikes with it really, but he got some chases and whiffs with it. He had a lot of control issues, especially in his 2nd inning.

Athletics sign Jonny Gomes

The Athletics signed Jonny Gomes to a one year 1.1 million dollar deal. He split 2011 between the Nationals and Reds and posted a .7 WAR, worth 2.1 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. Over the past 3 years, Gomes has averaged a .3 WAR (worth 900,000 dollars) with a .297 BABIP in that time. Offensively, he has a .329 OBP, 106 OPS +, and .330 Secondary Average. He is an above average home run hitter, with an ISO of .209, walks slightly above average, and has a 3.84 Pit/PA. So basically in every offensive category Gomes is slightly above average. Defensively, its a whole other story. His fielding percentage and range factor are both way under average. Depending on which metric you trust more, Gomes has cost his teams 46-40 runs more than an average fielder would in his career. Using runs created, we can measure (we did this in the Jack Cust article) how many runs and wins Gomes will be worth for the Athletics. According to Runs Created per Game metric, Gomes is worth .59 runs per game (technically he has a 5.3 Runs Created per game metric, but that assumes an offense of 9 Gomes', here I am isolating it to 1 Gomes'). Since he has played 428 games in the outfield, he will cost his team a run more than average about every 10 games. An average offensive player would create 65.3 runs in 140 games, while Gomes would create about 82.6 runs, or 17.3 runs more than an average player. Defensively in this time (assuming he never plays DH), he will cost his team 14 runs more than average. This is all a long way of saying that Gomes is worth 3.3 more runs a year than an "average player". There are two ways to look at this, I believe. One way makes Billy Beane and the Swinging A's look like geniuses, and one way makes Gomes' agent look like a genius. First, Beane might point out that the average MLB player salary is 3.1 million. Gomes is slightly better than average, and yet will be playing for a third of that salary. Gomes needs a new agent. Gomes' agent might try to save his job by pointing out that according to the Halladay Standard (a standard we have relied on heavily in this blog), Gomes is worth just $900,000, and so he is making 200 thousand extra dollars. It all depends on which metric you rely on more.

A's Acquire Seth Smith

The Rockies traded Seth Smith to the A's for Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman.

Smith agreed to a 2.145 million dollar deal the day before being traded. Smith had a 0 WAR in 2011, and has averaged a 1 WAR over the past 3 years, worth 3 million dollars. Terrible on defense (-1 WAR in his career, and a -1.4 WAR in 2011), he has a below average fielding percentage and range factor in the outfield. He has a career OBP of .348 and 110 OPS +. He has a very good 6.3 Runs Created per Game metric, with a .636 Offensive Winning percentage. He has good power at .209 ISO, and is reasonably efficient with a .330 Sec Average. The above average walker sees 3.95 pitches per plate appearance, giving him a PPS of 95.84.

Moscoso had a 2.2 WAR in his first season with significant pitching time. As mostly a starter, he has a PE of 1.227 with an Adjusted PE of 1.977. His FIP - is 105, with a SIERA of 4.96. He had a horrible groundball rate of .50, and gives up just under 1 HR/9IP. These statistics, combined with Coors (the horrible groundball rate really makes you scratch your head), makes me believe he won't repeat his 2011 success.

Outman, besides having an awesome pitching name, has a career 2.7 WAR in 3 seasons (although it is just 151.1 innings, mostly as a starter, so it is about a season). His FIP - is 97, but his SIERA is a 4.51. He also gives up more flyballs than groundballs.

I really don't understand this deal from the Rockies side. It really shows a lack of understanding by the organization of their own ballpark and advanced pitching statistics. For the A's, they get a much needed bat, although it comes with defense baggage, and trade 2 pitchers that appear to be products of the ballpark. 

Evaluating the Andrew Bailey trade

The Oakland Athletics sent Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney to the Red Sox for Josh Reddick, Miles Head, Raul Alcantera

Andrew Bailey has a 7.2 WAR over his 3 year career, a 2.4 WAR average. He will be in his first year of arbitration in 2011. He has a sparkling -4.096 PE and -3.426 adjusted PE.  He has a spectacular TR of 13.52, and FIP - of 67. So for the past 3 years, Andrew Bailey has been one of the elite relief pitchers in the game. There is some cause for concern though. It seems there has been some regression. In 09 he had a WAR of 3.9, then a 2.4 in 10, and just a .9 in 2009. His PE was -2.37 in 2011, -2.75 Adjusted, and a FIP - of 73, and a SIERA of 2.99. These numbers are hard to complain about, and as long as the regression doesn't continue, they are still really good. There is also the point of small sample sizes, he pitched just over 40 innings in both 2010 and 2011.

Ryan Sweeney had a .8 WAR in 2011, with a 1.53 WAR average over the past 3 years. He is also arbitration eligible. In his career, he has a 1.5 D-WAR, with an above average Range Factor and Fielding Percentage. He did struggle in 2011, costing his team 3-5 runs above average. Offensively, he has a .342 OBP, 1.746 O4S, 95 OPS +, .196 Secondary Average, and .096 ISO. He has 4.5 Runs Created per Game and a .461 Offensive Winning Percentage. He made 1.4 million dollars in 2011.

Josh Reddick has a 1.9 WAR in 403 PA, not quite a full season. Adjusted for 600 PA, it is a 2.86 WAR. He isn't arbitration eligible yet, so he will make around half a million dollars in 2012. While proving to be an excellent defender, his offensive statistics are very poor so far. He has an O4S of 1.576, OPS + of 86, and .464 Offensive Winning Percentage. However, he has better Secondary Average and ISOs then Sweeney, at .227 and .168. This certainly gives you hope (along with his WAR projection) that he will be better than Sweeney. On the other hand, his AAA statistics are very unimpressive in over a full season of work, with just a .748 OPS, projecting to a poor .682 OPS in MLB.

Miles Head has never been above A ball, and has decent but not over impressive statistics at a .351 OBP, 1.85 O4S, and .172 ISO. He does walk almost 10 percent of the time. At first base, he is about average, perhaps a little bit better according to Range Factor.

Raul Alcantara is a similar story, he hasn't played above A-ball, but he is a starting pitcher. In 26 starts, he has an unspectacular .0369 PE, although his FIP is lower than his ERA. But even if his PE is an even 0, that doesn't translate well, and his lack of strikeouts (6 K/9IP) is concerning. However, his ERA is nice, and his K/BB ratio is a very very good 4.2. He is just a contact pitcher. Some have been very successful, and he can be if his HR/9IP stays at .1.

I give the nod to the Red Sox in this trade, it appears that Reddick is the best player in the trade according to WAR, but his poor offense concerns me for the A's. Sweeney is almost certainly a downgrade (especially with declining defense) from Reddick, but they add Bailey, who is a (although declining) solid closer. Although prospect gurus seem to like Alcantara and Head, their numbers make it hard for me to fall in love with them. Of course, who wins the trade will depend on how they do, but I still think the Sox have a slight edge.

Analyzing the Gio Gonzalez trade

The Athletics traded Gio Gonzalez to the Washington Nations for A.J. Cole, Brad Peacock, Derek Norris, and Tom Milone. Gio had a 5 WAR in 2011 (despite making just $420,000) and a 4.6 WAR average in his 2 full seasons. His career PE is -.86, with an adjusted PE of -.73. However, his career FIP - is average at 100, and his SIERA is 4.05, hardly impressive. His TR was similarly unimpressive at 8.74. In fact, the only really good thing you can say about Gio is that he has a very good strikeout rate for a starter. Other than that, he seems pretty average.

Cole has never pitched above A ball, but was phenomenal there, earning a -3.16 PE as a starter. To give you an idea of just how good that was, in the league he pitched in (the South Atlantic League), the average PE was .281. Even better was his adjusted PE at -4.63. He didn't walk many batters and he didn't give up many homers either. Even better, he is just 19, when the average pitcher in the league was 22. He is certainly AA ready.

Peacock has 9 AAA starts under his belt, and earned a -2.54 PE. This projects to about an even 0 PE in the Majors, pretty good for a starter. However, his adjusted PE is a full run higher, meaning he would adjust to a 1 PE, which would be solid but nothing special. However, since it is only 9 starts, it makes sense to look at his AA numbers as well. There (mostly as a starter) he registered a -4.7 PE. Even though we don't yet have a pitcher's AA metric, we can assume that a regression for a pitcher from AA to AAA would be very similar to a hitters. According to Simple WAR, hitters put up just 67.7% of the numbers in AAA than they do in AA. This would lower Peacock's PE to -3.18, better than he actually pitched in his 9 starts in AAA. This would adjust to a -.65 Major League PE, almost as good as Gio.

Norris spent 2011 in AA, playing in 104 games. There he had a .367 OBP, .813 OPS, 2.4 PAPP, 1.48 PPG, adding up to a 3 Simple WAR. This means that already, at age 22, he projects to be a .64 O-WAR player. This is while being a catcher who throws out 40% of base runners, and an above average range factor. It is not crazy to believe that he could already step into the Majors and put up a 2 WAR if given enough playing time.

Milone spent 2011 in AAA, posting a -2.75 PE as a starter. This projects to a -.22 PE in the Majors. In 2010, he spent the year in AA, and had a PE of -2.2. This obviously doesn't project near as well.There are a couple ways to explain it, he could have improved, and his FIP is better than his ERA in both AA and AAA. For what it is worth, the Bill James projections have him earning a very nice -1.22 PE.

I think it is pretty obvious that the Athletics won this trade. Even though Gio is a decent starter with a low salary, the A's got 4 players who project to be good in the Majors.

Free Agent Watch: David DeJesus

David DeJesus was a big disappointment for the Athletics in 2011. He came into the year having a .360 OBP, with a .384 OBP in 2010. He rewarded the Athletics by posting a .323 OBP for his 6 million dollar salary. Despite having a WAR average of 3.27 from 08-10, he had a WAR of just .6 in 2011 (a horrible WASP of 10000). So what happened? His walk rate stayed about the same (actually a slight improvement) at 8.9%, but he hit less extra base hits than usual (just 6.9%). One could say he made up for that by homering 2 % of the time (instead of his normal 1.7%). As one would expect, he was a pretty big victim of BABIP, as it sat at .274 instead of his normal .316. Even though he hit more flyballs, he hit a lot less line drives. He saw exactly the same amount of pitches per plate appearance he  saw in 2011. This is all leads me to believe that 2012 should be a bounce back season for DeJesus. This usually means, although free agency season has been pretty wacky so far, that he will be undervalued. DeJesus Secondary Average and Isolated Slugging are both pretty terrible, as his career numbers are .233 and .137 respectively. With that said, he has 5.3 Runs Created per Game and a .528 offensive winning percentage. He has a career PPS of 93.73, and could be valuable in any lineup. The way he played in 08-10 was worth over 9 million dollars, and while I would hesitate to pay that much, he is a free agent worth considering.

Athletics hire Chili Davis

The Athletics have hired Chili Davis as hitting coach. The Athletics offense has been pretty anemic the past couple of seasons. There is no way to tell if someone will be a good hitting coach or not besides looking at past experiences (and that can be misleading, give me the Yankees and I will look like an excellent hitting coach). However, Chili Davis was just the kind of hitter sabermatricians love. Despite an unimpressive batting average of .274, he had a career .360 OBP and 120 OPS +. He sported a .320 Secondary Average and 5.6 Runs Created per game. He saw a decent amount of pitches at 3.79 Pit/PA, and walked 11.9% of the time. Of course, just because one is good at a craft (and Chili Davis was good at the craft of hitting) doesn't mean he can teach it.

Japanese Moneyball?

The Athletics have reportedly shown interest in Norichika Aoki, playing for Yakult in Japan. In 2011, Aoki had a .358 OBP, .718 OPS, .9 PPG, 2.8 PAPP. This all adds up to a 1.34 simple WAR. In his 4 seasons before 2011, he had a .421 OBP, 1.44 PPG, 2.23 PAPP, and .918 OPS. So there are two different sets of statistics. Which is more accurate? Certainly the 4 year career is a bigger sample, but what does BABIP say? One would think his 2011 BABIP would be low, but it was still .316. His career BABIP was .358, so while both are high (probably because he is hitting the ball hard for that level of play), his 2011 certainly was lower. Especially with the bigger sample, it seems more likely that the pre-2011 career numbers are the most accurate. According to the metric laid out on the difference between hitting in Japan and hitting in the Majors, Aoki would have a .388 OBP, .95 PPG, 2.97 PAPP, and a simple WAR of roughly 3.64. That would be worth nearly 11 million dollars. However, his 2011 numbers run through the metric would be very poor, and there is that danger. The good thing is that because of that relatively poor 2011 season, he will probably be undervalued. I would not pay 11 million for him, but he has shown an ability to get on base that is very valuable, and 5 or so million makes perfect sense, and could be a steal.