Padres and Athletics Trade Evaluation: A.J. Kirby-Jones

Here I am continuing my breakdown of the trade between the A's and Padres that involved Tyson Ross, A.J. Kirby-Jones, Andy Parrino, and Andrew Werner. This post will focus on A.J. Kirby-Jones, who is going from the Athletics to the Padres. He was drafted in the 9th round by the A's in 2010. Kirby-Jones is a first baseman/DH, so obviously the value is tied up in his bat as he doesn't really have any other tools (he runs a pretty laughable 4.92 to first). He is short (5-10) but stocky (listed at 215) and recently turned 24 years old.

Kirby-Jones played the entire year in the California League, which inflates offensive statistics. However, his team, the Stockton Ports, play in a park that is less hitter friendly than most in the league (95 one year Park Factor). This is why it isn't surprising that he hit much better on the road. It doesn't explain the .173 point difference in BABIP (!), or why he walked more and hit less ground-balls on the road though. His road statistics were crazy, as he walked over 20 % of the time, with a .232 ISO in 56 games on the road (although he hit 1 more homer at home). Overall, in 114 games, Kirby walked 17.5 % of the time (nearly 9% above league average) while striking out 25.9 % of the time (5.8% of the time more than average). His ISO was .061 above league average and he had a 110 wOBA + and 120 OPS + (121 wRC +). This is right in line with how he hit in 2011 in A-ball (113 wOBA +, 126 OPS +, 125 wRC +) after he destroyed A- in 2010 (125 wOBA +, 155 OPS +, 156 wRC +).

Kirby-Jones is much better against lefties than righties (the split was worse in 2012 than it was 2011) but it isn't like he is completely incapable of hitting without the platoon advantage (which is important from right-handed batters, as left-handed platoon bats are more valuable than right-handed platoon bats).

In college, he made a run for the national lead in homers, though Perfect Game liked fellow slugger Paul Hoilman better. Hoilman was picked in the 19th round by the Cubs in 2011 and after a good 2011 in A -, he was only about league average in A-ball in 2012.

Kirby-Jones' swing seems pretty quick, but it is not the prettiest. He uses somewhat of a leg kick to get the swing started (which isn't a big deal, it is a timing technique, stating that he does so is more descriptive than anything else) and it seems long. It looks like that perhaps a pitcher could jam him inside, not because of bat speed, but because it is just a long swing in general. It can also be extremely violent at times and he doesn't necessarily start it on time occasionally, which can make him late. Whether this is plate discipline, timing, eye, or a hitch in his swing, I am not entirely sure. He does have good plate coverage though, which is perhaps a little surprising since he isn't exactly tall, but evidently his arms are long enough (or perhaps his swing is long enough) to go get low pitches away.

He is the kind of guy who can have some success in a bench role on a NL team (which is obviously what the Padres are) as a pinch hitter. He could also turn out to be a minor league slugger that doesn't translate to the Majors. He could be anyone from 2009-2011 Eric Hinske or Mike Cervenak. I think AA next year will tell us a lot, as he won't be older than the competition like he has been in the lower levels.

Scouting Reports on Texas Wesleyan and Texas College

On Saturday March 17th 2012, I saw Texas Wesleyan play against Texas College at Legrave Field.

Derek Vaughn started for Texas Wesleyan. The junior right hander is not real big at 6-0 190, and was drafted by the Rays in the 47th round last year. He spent his freshman year at Arkansas-Fort Smith, where he struck out 10.71 batters per 9 innings and had an ERA of 2.87. He then went to Oklahoma where he was redshirted and never played. He seemed to have a pretty hard fastball and it was about 89-90 MPH (although I have read reports where he has thrown 93-94 MPH). He worked his fast-ball both inside and outside, mostly middle height (although he threw a very nice low fastball, but I really only counted one). The pitch was a nice pitch when it was on the high outside corner. He really seemed very happy for the most part, like he wanted to be a power pitcher. He did show a 73 MPH breaking pitch, but for the most part it was staying too high. He hung the pitch for a hard liner, and really seemed to be having problems with it. He threw a nice harder breaking pitch, most likely a slider, for a swinging strikeout. He showcased this pitch a little, but it wasn't a pitch he had much control or feel for it seemed. His best breaking pitches actually seemed to come in warm-ups. Overall, he had no location on his breaking pitches, and really lacked control overall. In the 2nd he had a walk and a hit by pitch back to back. He ended up throwing 114 pitches overall, and was really laboring from the 5th on it seemed.

The starter for Texas College was Chris Blackmon who ended up throwing a complete game. Even though the fences were way in at Legrave Field compared to other college stadiums, there was only one home run in the 11 innings I saw (it was a double-header and I watched the first game and the first two innings of the second game) and it was Alex Padilla homering off Blackmon off of a hanging breaking ball. Blackmon is a 6'4" senior, but threw a very soft fastball at about 81-82. However, he threw more breaking pitches than fastballs, showcasing mainly a 71 MPH looping curveball (he threw a 64 MPH breaking ball once, but it seemed to be just an even slower curve) that he was throwing both inside and outside. His location really isn't as precise as it needs to be for such a finesse pitcher, as his curveball was really staying high in the 5th on. He really lost effectiveness in the middle of the game and the manager kept him out there. If nothing else, the hitters were falling for that breaking ball and were having all kinds of problems with timing. It seemed that it says more about the hitters than the pitcher. He really seemed to be a right-handed Barry Zito (the Giants version of course), as I saw Zito pitch a few days before with a 70 MPH curveball that was staying up and an 83-85 MPH fastball. We have seen how many problems Zito has had the past few years.

Patrick Stanley was the only reliever I saw pitch, and he is a right handed side armer. He was throwing 82-85 MPH with not a ton of movement and not much low. In warm-ups, everything was on the right side of the plate, but his first pitch was inside to a right hander. In other words, it appears he can work both sides of the plate. When he threw the ball in the middle of the plate low, it turned into a line drive single, and the ball was staying in the middle of the plate too much. He also sailed a pickoff throw, but had a very nice 9th with a ground-ball, infield foul fly-out, and a strikeout looking.

In the 2nd game, the starter for Texas Wesleyan was Dillon Wilson, a 6-7 225 lefty. The senior clearly has much bigger size than you see in most lefties, and he was throwing about 88-90 MPH (he hit 91 MPH, and I am told this is a little bit harder than he usually throws). He got two nice looking strikeouts with the fastball on the outside corner (he tended to like to throw the ball in the dirt). He also broke out a 71 MPH curve on the 3rd batter, and it was a pretty solid pitch (with definite speed differential). 

David Kipp was the starter for Texas College in the second game. He is not real big at 6 feet even 205 pounds. He was throwing about 84-86 MPH on his fastball with a 74 MPH breaking pitch. The breaking ball wasn't all that impressive, and ended up getting creamed by Justin Barnes.

Texas Wesleyan's lineup:

Brian White was the starting catcher, and the Junior had a nice arm behind the plate. However, the rather small catcher didn't look good at the plate, falling for breaking balls, and striking out looking in his final at-bat in the first game. Christian Soberanes started at shortstop and the senior didn't have very good pitch recognition, and swung at the first breaking ball he saw for an infield pop-up. He did pull a nice double, but didn't have much range at shortstop. Taylor Jockers was the senior center-fielder, who had a nice arm. Offensively, he showed a little power potential, and had a long at-bat. However, he also struck out swinging on a high fastball.Alex Padilla played 3rd base, even though the junior is listed as a catcher. I mentioned his homer earlier, but he also hit a ground-ball on a breaking pitch that was hung in the strike zone that I thought he should have really hit hard. Joseph Lassiter played 2nd base, although it is listed he can play in the outfield. He didn't show much range out in the field, but he hit a low breaking ball pretty nicely. Jake Howeth played in right field, and the freshman has a nice arm and gunned a runner down at the plate. He also hit a fastball to the wall. Vincent Winter made a nice play in left field, and the junior struck out swinging on a fastball and fell for a breaking pitch for an infield pop-up. Stephen Niedwiecki DH'ed and was really slow and didn't look his listed size of 6-2 200. Andrew Coleman came in the game as a pinch-runner.
Justin Barners played 1st base (he is listed as a 1B/OF, but I can't imagine him playing in the outfield with his 6-3 240 build), and definitely has power potential. He isn't slow, but he is an awful base-runner and doesn't move that well in the infield. The senior has to recognize breaking balls better, and with his age, he should be more advanced than he is.

For Texas College, Agustin Enriquez played shortstop. He looked good in the field, and at the plate he went the other way on a breaking ball for a hit. He also chased another breaking ball. D.J. Fisher played DH as a freshman, and is a real bad body type at 5-11 220. To add that, he is slow on the base paths. Offensively, he cut late on a fastball, and while he looked like he may have some power but I didn't see it. Corey Heidebrecht started at second base, and the sophomore showed some pop and drove a breaking ball pretty well. Jose Hernandez had a nice arm out in left-field (he is listed as a center-field), but the freshman is just 5-8 155. With the bat, he wasn't ready for the fastball. Tristen Neal played in center-field and the senior had all kinds of problems with the bat. He was late and having problems with the fastball, and he chased breaking pitches. He did have a long at-bat in which he grounded out to pitcher. Matthew McEuen played a good 3rd base, and the small junior didn't show an impressive bat (seemed to be a ground-ball hitter) but did hit a hard liner. Jared Seal started in right field as a sophomore, and walked but didn't have any hard contact in the game. He had a couple swing and misses on outside fastballs. He is a pretty slow runner. Jose Serna is the super slow junior catcher. I think there was something wrong with his arm as he wouldn't throw the ball.

Kasey Vogel started at first and the 6-0 200 junior hit a hard line drive on a hanger:

He did have an ugly hack though, even though he walked twice.

Blaine Shackelford made a nice play at catcher, even though he is listed as a pitcher. Tanner Shaffer was brought in as a pinch hitter to bunt. Cody Stifle was the courtesy runner for the catcher, and he is a nice baserunner. Artie Lopez pinch hit, and the listed 1st baseman looked like a bad build (6-1 230) power hitter. The junior is the only switch hitter on the team but wasn't starting, and I can only speculate that he isn't a good defender.

Scouting Reports on Abilene Christian and Southern Arkansas

On Sunday February 19th, we watched Southern Arkansas at Abilene Christian (we watched the first game of the double header, but didn't stay for the 2nd). Abilene's starting pitcher was Brady Rodriquez. He is a lanky 6-1 180 LBS pitcher, who didn't throw real hard and seemed to fit the bill "crafty lefty" quite well. Here is a video of him warming up (he threw harder than he did warming up, we weren't actually quite concerned when we saw him warming up):

Rodriquez had a loopy breaking ball that he could throw for strikes, but it also seemed to stay up, and that problem got worse as the game moved along. He did have problems throwing strikes at times, with two walks and a HBP. He struck out just 2, and only had 1 swinging strike (but 11 looking). Neither starting pitcher had swing and miss stuff, and it produced a ton of foul balls. Rodriquez was hit pretty hard too, giving up 3 line drives, 5 fly-balls, and just 3 grounders. He gave up 5 hits and 5 runs, with a balk in 3 and 2/3rds. Rodriguez originally went to Ball State but transfered after he was red-shirted, and was awful in his Freshman year at Abilene, giving up nearly 2 hits an inning with an ERA of 9.99.

Souther Arkansas' starting pitcher was Janson Carr, a 6-4 225 LBS Sophomore, who also plays 3rd base. He threw harder than Rodriquez, but had some kind of "shot put" like delivery. His pitches, unlike Rodriquez's, stayed up very high. He didn't strike out any one and hit 1 batter (but walked no one). Abilene was pretty patient and made pretty good contact, fouling off a bunch of pitches and hitting 4 line drives off Carr. He only got 1 swinging strike and 9 looking strikes. He got 3 ground-balls to 2 fly-balls. He end up giving up 5 runs off 6 hits in 2 and 2/3rds:

Abilene's relievers were much more impressive, beginning with Jordon Herrera a 6-3 200 LBS JR. who went to Wharton College where he had a 3.71 ERA in 2011, better than his team average of 4.52. In high school as a senior, Herrera a 1.69 ERA and was on the Houston area all-star team. Against Southern Arkansas, he gave up no fly-balls or line drives, and got 5 grounders (4 of which snuck by for hits, the defense was awful in the game as a whole, more on that later). He had nasty breaking stuff that led to 7 swinging strikes and 6 looking (it also led to 2 wild pitches). He struck out 4 batters, but let 2 inherited runs score in 1 2/3rd. No one on either team was chasing pitches out of he zone before Jordan Herrera came in and he had Southern Arkansas chasing.

Austin Palmer was brought in as a lefty specialist and faced just one batter, walking him and getting one strike looking. He had a strange deceptive delivery that tried to hide the ball. Palmer is a junior who spent 2 years at American River College. He was 6-4 but didn't seem to get a whole lot of velocity on the ball. At American River, they tried to use him as a starter, and it was a disaster, with an ERA near 7 in 2010 and a 6.74 ERA in 2011. He had exactly as many walks as strikeouts in those two years. He is certainly a LOOGY, but one that doesn't seem to over power or have much control:

Sam Malchar was another junior from Wharton College, at 6-1 and 200 LBS. He had a big stride in his delivery and had a 3.79 ERA as a Sophomore in 2011. His biggest problem was that he left his breaking ball up quite a bit. He got one ground-ball and one fly-ball, with one walk and no strikeouts (2 looking strikes):

The 9th inning man was junior Josh Stone, who was a power type pitcher that threw reasonably hard. He previously went to Richland College as a freshman, where he had a 7.88 ERA. However, as a Sophomore at Midland College, he was pretty good, striking out 7.56 per 9 innings (you would like for him to strike out more) with an ERA of 1.75 and striking out 3 times as many as he walked. He got 1 swinging strike, 4 looking strikes, and 2 strikeouts. The only contact he gave up was a fly-ball:

For Southern Arkansas, the bullpen was not impressive, as Joey Cifuentes was the first pitcher out of the bullpen, and the senior had control issues with a wild pitch and just struggled to throw strikes. He walked 1, got 2 ground-balls with 1 line drive, and 3 strikes looking. In 2/3rds of an inning, he gave up 1 hit and no runs:

Devin Avery had a violent delivery, and left his breaking ball up in the zone. This led to the ball really getting smacked around as he gave up 2 hits, 3 runs in 1/3rds of an inning. He gave up 2 line drives and hit a batter, getting 3 strikes looking but no ground-balls or swinging strikes:

Justin Parsons wasn't any better, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits in 2 innings. He had a wild pitch, but he got 3 swinging strikes with a strikeout (5 looking strikes). He gave up 2 ground-balls and 2 fly-balls.

Sheldon O'Dell was the best Southern Arkansas pitcher, but still walked 2 and only struck out 1. He had a delivery that started slow with a pause and then fast. He got 4 looking strikes and 3 swinging. He had 2 wild pitches, with a fly-ball as his only contact given up.

The most impressive position player by far was Rodge Macy, who is listed as a catcher but played right field. He has a good build as a junior at 6-2 210, playing previously at Vernon College. In 2011, in 94 AB, he had a .362 BA and .419 OBP with 6 SB and 8 CS (0 HRs). He certainly had the best at-bats in the game, with a 6 pitch line drive, 6 pitch HBP, 5 pitch line drive, and 5 pitch HBP (he also made a pretty controversial, at least the call was, out on the base paths). If he can catch (as we will see later, the Abilene catcher was good behind the plate and that is probably why we didn't see Macy there) and hit for some more power, he could be pretty valuable. Here is Macy:

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Abilene's 1st Baseman was Duncan Blades, an extremely small first baseman at 5-10 180 LBS. The senior made a good throw home that got a runner, but also dropped a very easy fly-ball. He had a Sac Bunt, a 2 pitch liner, a 7 pitch walk, and a 7 pitch line drive. Obviously the 3 real at-bats were good, but the size is really concerning, the roster has him listed as an infielder and not exclusively as a 1st baseman. He has hit over .300 in all 3 years in college with a .343 average in 2011 as a junior. You do need more than just 3 homers in slightly over 100 at bats though. 

Luke Mejia played in the infield, and the junior bunted for a hit, and had 2 ground-balls averaging 3.5 pitches per a plate appearance in those at bats. On defense he showed a lack of range. Here are a couple of videos of him that were already on Youtube (as you can see there is not much going on with the bat):

                

                                                              Emmett Niland was the catcher, who also pitches (but didn't pitch in the game). He showed why with a good arm, and he threw out a base runner. He bunted himself out by hitting himself with the ball outside of the batting box, had a 6 pitch ground-ball, a 6 pitch walk, and a 3 pitch ground-ball. He really is small as a catcher at 5-10 and 180 LBS, and one would imagine that lack of height doesn't help him with velocity as a pitcher. He hit .316 and .288 with 2 home runs in his 2 years in junior college. It is a shame that he doesn't really project as a hitter, because he does have a nice arm behind the plate. 

Tyler Eager played center field, but is also listed as being able to play first (although he is also small for that position, it is bizarre that Abilene seems unable to find a big 1st basemen). He is just a freshman out of a high school in Fort Worth, Texas. He hit 3 fly-balls (averaging 4 pitches per plate appearance in those at-bats) and a line drive. He may be someone to watch out for in the future:

 

Chuck Duarte was another infielder that didn't show much range, partly because he is really slow (as he showed on the base paths). He had a sac bunt, a 1 pitch line drive, and a 3 pitch ground-ball. So not impressive with the bat, but he had a .457 OBP at Western Texas College in 2011 as a Sophomore, but made 10 errors with a fielding percentage of .962. He will have to hit the cover off the ball at Abilene to really make up for lack of tools.

Ryan Luckie came in as a pinch hitter, and plays the infield. The senior had a 6 pitch strikeout and a 2 pitch fly-ball.

Travis Schuetze played some brutal 3rd base by missing a ground-ball, making an error on another easy play, and missing another line drive. He compounded this by being a pretty bad base-runner. He hit two grounders, walked and struck out. 

Mike Keegan had a nice size, at 6-2 215 as an outfielder who also catches according to the team roster. He hit a liner on a 4 pitch at bat and a grounder on a 3 pitch at bat. Last year at American River College, he did a good job of getting on base, but didn't slug much, with an OPS of .937. One would expect his size to improve his slugging, but we will have to see. 

Finally, Abilene's DH was Kyle Conwell, and he was listed at 6-1 200 LBS, but appeared lanky. One would have to count on the junior filling out. He hit .330 with 6 homers at Western Nevada as a freshman, and had a .491 OBP at Western Nevada as a sophomore. He was drafted in the 22nd round of the draft out of high school, but obviously didn't sign. He saw 13 pitches in 3 AB, and had two grounders and a line drive. He didn't particularly stand out to us, but he has hit in JUCO, and is obviously a prospect. He evidently cannot field, as he has played DH every where he has been.

For Southern Arkansas, Rafael Thomas had 2 errant throws, and was not fast (at least as fast as he thought he was) as he was caught stealing and then thrown out at home. As a senior, he is 5-8 180 LBS. He had a 5 pitch walk, a line drive and a 2 pitch ground-ball.Here is a picture of his batting stance, I still can't figure out who it reminds me of: 

Jody Spain played 2nd base, and is a 5-11 175 LBS senior. He had a 3 pitch FB, a ground-ball and 2 strikeouts. 

Ryan Bell had problems at third, as he should of caught a foul ball and made an ugly throwing error. He had 2 ground-balls and a line drive:

 

Trey Buck played some of the worst shortstop I have ever seen. He had a bad dive on a ball up the middle that gave him no chance, had a terrible arm, and made 3 fielding errors on balls hit right to him. I thought basic baseball wisdom was that you play your best infielder at shortstop. Southern Arkansas is in some serious trouble if Buck is their best infielder. He is listed at 5-7, but that is very generous. He had 3 ground-balls (in which he say 15 pitches), and a 5 pitch walk. Unless he was a world class bat, which he's not, it wouldn't make up for his bad defense. 

Kyle Fillier had two long at bats, averaging 7.5 pitches per plate appearance, but they both ended with strikeouts, 1 looking and 1 swinging. The senior was pinch hit for by a junior: Philip Menou. Menou had one of the worst bat speeds you will ever see. He is 6-6 and listed at 220 LBS (probably a bit smaller), so good size, but he had two awful at bats where he had a 3 pitch strikeout and a check swing ground-ball. 

David Allday played 1st base, and made a nice stretch play but made a bad throw. The senior swung at low pitches, and had 2 ground-balls and 2 fly-balls averaging 3.75 pitches per plate appearance. Jason Dahl played RF with not much range, and hit 3 fly-balls and struck out. Outfielder Gavan McCauley played center and missed a ball on a dive and has a pretty weak arm. He had 2 ground-balls (averaging 4 pitches per plate appearance in those two PA), with a walk. Catcher Ryan Dardenne saw 12 pitches in 3 plate appearances with a line drive, strikeout, and a fly-ball.

Thanks again to David Withers (Big D from Football picking), who is on Twitter at @davidwithers18.

Jason Giambi, and the big veteran pitch hitter.

Every National League team needs (and every American League team could use) someone like Jason Giambi. Giambi, 40 years old, once the top slugger in baseball (and an admitted steroid user), is no longer a player that can play 150 games a year, or hit 50 homers and drive in 100. However, he isn't making 20 million dollars a year anymore. He can still hit too, and hit it hard. In 123 At-Bats, he has 13 homers, meaning he homers every 9.5 At-Bats. Albert Pujols homers once in about every 15 At-Bats (this season). His OBP is a very respectable .368, an OPS at 1.022 (!), and he has driven in 32. This is a guy that the Rockies can bring off the bench to hit for the pitcher (or in a key situation) and expect real results. Not to mention that he gives the Rockies a formidable DH in interleague play, something many NL teams simply do not have. He has a WAR (wins above replacement player) of 1.2 and an 13 RAR (runs above replacement player). Making a million dollars, his WASP (Wins above Replacement player and Salary Per) a very nice 833. He has also shown that he can play the occasional first base, as he did last night, with a .1 WAR on defense.