Free Agent Watch: K-Rod

Francisco Rodriquez registered a 2.4 WAR in 2011, which is worth 7.2 million according to Halladay Standard. Bullpen pitchers have proved to be pretty expendable and vastly overpaid, as the Rays proved this year. 1.57 WAR average over the past 3 years. Worth about 4.7 million. In 2011 he had a PE of -3.58. In his career he has a -5.54. In 2011, he had a very nice TR of 13.11, as his career TR is 11.89. So in 2011, with the Brewers and Mets, he was more efficient, even though his results weren't quite as good. This would probably be good for his prospective teams, and if it were a different name, it might create a market inefficiency and K-Rod could worth more than he is paid. However, he is a big name pitcher, and has Scott Boras as an agent, meaning that won't happen. He actually had an extremely high BABIP in 2011 (.321) compared to his career (.275). It is tempting to argue that he was unlucky in 2011, but that is not what FIP suggests, as his ERA and FIP are almost identical. The big thing, and that is why the PE isn't as low as it usually is for Rodriguez, is that he struck out less batters. Striking out more than a hitter an inning is nothing to sneeze at, but it is not as good as his career K/9IP of over 11. He did give up slightly less home runs, and home runs do not show up on BABIP. This could explain the difference in BABIP. In the end, he will be a highly paid, controversial reliever. He has had off the field issues and "team" issues, and it is difficult to calculate what they means or affects their worth. For example, the one mistake the Tampa Bay Rays made previous to the 2011 season was sign Manny Ramirez. That proved to be a disaster and a waste of money. Their are a few other examples you can think of as well, such as the Cubs giving all that money to Carlos Zambrano. I wouldn't take the bait on K-Rod, but it has more to do with relievers being overvalued that the off the field issues.

Jason Giambi, and the big veteran pitch hitter.

Every National League team needs (and every American League team could use) someone like Jason Giambi. Giambi, 40 years old, once the top slugger in baseball (and an admitted steroid user), is no longer a player that can play 150 games a year, or hit 50 homers and drive in 100. However, he isn't making 20 million dollars a year anymore. He can still hit too, and hit it hard. In 123 At-Bats, he has 13 homers, meaning he homers every 9.5 At-Bats. Albert Pujols homers once in about every 15 At-Bats (this season). His OBP is a very respectable .368, an OPS at 1.022 (!), and he has driven in 32. This is a guy that the Rockies can bring off the bench to hit for the pitcher (or in a key situation) and expect real results. Not to mention that he gives the Rockies a formidable DH in interleague play, something many NL teams simply do not have. He has a WAR (wins above replacement player) of 1.2 and an 13 RAR (runs above replacement player). Making a million dollars, his WASP (Wins above Replacement player and Salary Per) a very nice 833. He has also shown that he can play the occasional first base, as he did last night, with a .1 WAR on defense.

Got 'Roids?: Eliezer Alfonzo

Rockies catcher Eliezer Alfonzo has been suspended for 100 games for failing his second test for "performance enhancing drugs". When talking about steroids in baseball, we usually mean the stars like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmerio, and Sammy Sosa. However steroids are not just used by very good players to put them over the top, but also by minor league players to put them in the big leagues. Lets bring in Alfonzo now, he has a career WAR (wins above replacement player) of -1 at the big league level (with a -.4 this season), a career RAR (runs above replacement, or in this case, he has produced 9 less runs than a replacement player) of -9, a horrific OBP of .271, and just 17 homers since coming up with the Giants in 06. And this is him with steroids! To play a fun, very unscientific game, lets look at Barry Bonds' stats. Its generally believed that he was not on steroids with the Pirates, but was with the Giants (or that is just how we will simplify it). This may give us a gauge of just how much steroids (allegedly) helped his performance, and how terrible Alfonzo would be without them. In his 7 years with the Pirates, Bonds recorded a 50.2 WAR (which is quite awesome). Since he spent 15 years with the Giants, we multiply that number by 2.14(285714...) and get 107.6. In reality, his Giants WAR was 121.6, giving a difference of 14 over 15 years (there are other factors that could also account for the difference, but we don't really know what they are, so lets just have fun and assume this is accurate), giving him a .93 extra WAR a year. If we assume that steroids have given Alfonzo the same .93 WAR a year extra, he would have gained 5.6 extra WAR in his 6 year career. So if we subtract that from his already -1 WAR, he would have a career -6.6 WAR in the big leagues without steroids. If he was this bad, he would never have seen the big leagues. This is how steroids and performance enhancing drugs really screw with the numbers.