Thursday, October 27, 2011
Free Agent Watch: Erik Bedard
Erik Bedard had a 1.7 WAR in 2011, in which he split with the Mariners and Red Sox. He has a 1.67 WAR average in the past 3 years he has played in (he did not appear in the 2010 season), and has always had injury problems. He had an incredible PE of -1.4 in 2011, and with his FIP basically identical to his ERA, it is hard to call it fluky. His TR was less impressive, but still solid at 9.61. In his career, he has a -1.33 PE, and has been a consistent strikeout pitcher in his entire career. His career TR is 9.82, almost identical to his 2011 TR. Along with his high strikeout totals, he has an average BABIP of .300, a very good combination. He gives up less than a homer every 9 innings, doesn't walk too many batters, has a pretty good groundball ratio, and has a career FIP of 3.65. This all adds up to a very valuable starting pitcher. Because of his injury problems, he may be undervalued in free agency. There are not very many differences between his lefty/rightie splits, and he is basically a fastball-curveball pitcher. I like Bedard, and the metrics like Bedard, and he doesn't throw especially hard, which means more teams will ignore him than should. He is certainly worth the 5+ million that WASP suggests he is, but I wouldn't give much more because of his lack of ability to stay on the field.