The Astros top prospect: Jarred Cosart

The Astros have had a miserable farm system for the past few years (their AA team in Corpus had one of the worst minor league seasons in history in 2011), but they have been able to bring in a few prospects by dealing some of their better major league players the past couple of years. Among these is Jarred Cosart, now listed as the Astros' top prospect for 2011 by MLB.com. Cosart was part of the Hunter Pence trade, and had never pitched past A ball for the Phillies. With 3 different levels of A ball for Philly, his PE was a very nice -6.42, mainly as a starter. His FIP (Fielder Independent ERA) was excellent in '09 and '10 (2.13 and 2.47), but wasn't as good in 2011 with the Philly organization (4.00). He gave up less than a homer every 18 innings in A ball, and left around 63% of runners on base. When the Astros acquired Cosart, he went straight to AA, and every start was summarized and discussed on the big league broadcast. He made 7 of these starts, and had a PE of 2.82, less than impressive. There are two ways to look at his time in AA. His FIP was lower than his normal ERA, meaning that bad fielding by his teammates inflated his ERA. However, his FIP was still higher than it had ever been in A ball, and he struck out less than he had struck out in A. Also, his BABIP was lower than t had been in A in 2011. This is probably luck, since his other numbers don't show he was impressive. This means that next year in AA could be worse, unless he makes significant improvements. He also gave up about a HR about every 9 innings, and had two flat tire starts where he gave up at least 7 runs in 4 innings or less (including giving up 4 homers in his final start). Cosart is rated high, but he is still very far away before he is ready to pitch for the Major League team.