Saturday, October 29, 2011
Jerome Williams: Arbitration
.2 WAR (worth $600,000) in 2011 in 6 starts and 10 appearances (44 innings). Given a 150 innings, he would register a .68 WAR, which would be worth 2 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. He has a 3.5 WAR in 6 career seasons, a .58 WAR average, worth 1.7 million. However, he was -.7 WAR in 2007 (in just 30 innings) so it has to be kept in mind that he can have flat tire seasons. In his career, he has a 2.59 PE, and in 2011 his PE was 1.99. His career TR is 7.88, in 2011 it was 8.76. So clearly 2011 was better than his career norms, but they still aren't very good numbers. This should quell any talk of a good stretch by Jerome Williams. FIP doesn't help him either as his 2011 FIP was almost identical to his career FIP (4.62-4.69). In fact, his career ERA is 4.20, while his career FIP is 4.69. That is really the difference between a serviceable pitcher and a nonserviceable pitcher. He doesn't strikeout many batters (5.48 per 9 innings), but he does get groundballs (1.42 GB/FB ratio), which can be an offset. He offsets this by giving up a ton of home runs (1.23 per 9 innings in 2011), and walks too many people. His BABIP was below league average (.291), but higher than his career average (.274). It is hard to interpret how that will play out. However, the Angels have to hope he doesn't receive anything in arbitration. If he is anything more than like $600,000, they should try to dump him. They probably won't get anything for him, but he is not worth keeping on the payroll.