Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Rangers' prospect Tommy Mendonca
In the Pan-American games, the leader in RBIs for the USA team was Tommy Mendonca, a member of the Texas Rangers' organization. He went to Fresno State and was drafted in the 2nd round in 09. He had a 1.99 PPG, 2.13 ABPP, and 961 OPS. The College metric suggests he may have been drafted too high at: 2.85 ABPP .93 PPG, and 711 OPS. In 3 seasons at A and AA Mendonca has a .335 OBP, and .790 OPS, certainly not impressive. He has a relatively solid 1.26 PPG, but his PAPP was poor at 2.92, giving him a Simple WAR of .7. He only walks 6 percent of the time, but homers 3% of the time (MLB average is about 2.7%). There are two ways to look at this. The optimistic option is that because of his power he will be pitched more carefully, and will get more walks and get on base more. The pessimistic view is that because of his power, he will be pitched more carefully and he doesn't have the discipline to draw walks and will become a terrible hitter. It should also be noted that a homer % of 3 is not amazing, it is just above average. There have been tons of guys that have good power that didn't turn out to be major league players because they didn't have the plate discipline. Mendonca plays 3rd and has a low fielding percentage, and below average range factor. Fielding statistics matter, but they aren't always reliable. With that said, it is hard to imagine that a team wants a impatient hitter with low fielding metrics.