Friday, October 7, 2011

Series Preview: Tigers vs. Rangers

Pre-statistics (somewhat of a misnomer, just before I go over all the numbers like I did in original previews), I had the Rangers going to the World Series, so I have to stick with them for the pre-statistic pick. The Rangers are going to look like this in the starting rotation: Wilson (.148 WAR per start, -1.87 PE), Holland (.55 PE, .081 WAR per Start), Lewis (.061 WAR per start, .51 PE), and Harrison (.13 WAR per Start, 1.17 PE) as starting pitchers. Their projected bullpen looks like this Ogando (3.4 WAR, .3 PE), Feliz (-1.8 PE, .8 WAR), Gonzalez (-.55 PE, .2 WAR) , Adams (-5.24 PE, 1.7 WAR), Uejara (1.2 WAR, -7.09 PE), Oliver (-2.01 PE, 1.2 WAR), and Feldman (.98 PE, .2 WAR). Their lineup will probably look like (in no particular order): Hamilton (.03 WAR per game, 1.723 PPG, 2.42 PAPP), Cruz (.011 WAR per Game, 1.52 PPG, 2.74 PAPP), Murphy (2.74 PAPP, .966 PPG, Negative WAR), Napoli (2.13 PAPP, .045 WAR per game, 1.504 PPG), Kinsler (2.39 PAPP, 1.67 PPG, .035 WAR per Game), Andrus (.024 WAR per game, 1.32 PPG, 2.68 PAPP) Beltre (1.76 PPG, .043 WAR per game, 2.63 PAPP), Torreabla (.006 WAR per game, .75 PPG, 3.14 PAPP), and Young (.015 WAR per game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.33 PPG).

The Tigers, will use 4 starters it looks like: Verlander (-3.73 PE, .253 WAR a start), Scherzer (.44 PE, .073 WAR per start), Fister (.16 PE, .26 WAR a start), and Porcello (3.9 PE, .032 WAR a start). Detroit's lineup will probably look like this (in no order): Jackson, Young, Raburn, Cabrera, Martinez, Aviles, Ordonez, Peralta, and Inge. This adds up to a .127 WAR a game, 10.06 PPG, 25.864 PAPP. Their bullpen will include: Valverde, Coke, Benoit, Perry, Alburquerque, Schlereth, and Pauley. Their stats add up to -13.6 PE, and a 8.1 WAR.

This means that statistically, the Rangers have the better lineup (in fielding and hitting), and better bullpen. However, the Tigers (assuming the series goes 7 games) win 4 out of the 7 starting pitching match-ups (with Holland versus Scherzer twice going a draw statistically, Harrison versus Porcello is the only one the Rangers have a clear advantage on). Having the advantage in the other 3 areas put the numbers fully behind the Rangers.

No comments:

Post a Comment