Thursday, October 6, 2011

Series Review: Yankees and Tigers

A-Rod, while not rated high statistically this season and therefore was not a reason the statistics picked the Yankees, was an absolute disaster.  He struck out 6 times and went 2 for 18 in the series. In now big samples, it is apparent that A-Rod is not a very good postseason player, and he is still on the hook for a lot of money and a long time. It was the Tigers, not the Yankees, that took advantage of the short right porch, with multiple barely shouldn't be homers in that should-be illegal ballpark. C.C. Sabathia's performance in the series was disappointing and disrupted, and Ivan Nova had to pitch twice, and the statistics were clear, Fister is better than Nova. It showed in game 5. Verlander only pitched once (twice if you count that horrible first inning in game 1), and wasn't his best (5.00 ERA), but out-pitched Sabathia (6.23 ERA). Both bullpens, which the statistics basically called equal, pitched really well. Max Scherzer was lucky if not good for the Tigers, giving up tons of flyballs in his start, but still only having a 1.09 WHIP and 1.23 ERA for his two appearances. Also unexpected was Rick Porcello starting game 4, not Brad Penny (which I had written in the series preview). Not to mention that the 4th pitcher was supposed to face Sabathia and not Burnett. This really messed with the statistical preview. For the Yankees, Texiera had another mediocre playoff series, walking rarely and not coming with hardly any hits. For the Tigers, Delmon Young, an extremely overrated player with low statistical ratings, had a very big series with 3 homers and hitting over .300 despite chasing all kinds of bad pitches, Miguel Cabrera hit just .200 in the series, but as batting average is very overrated, he was very solid in the series and the Yankees had to repeatedly pitch around him. Maggolio Ordonez and Brandon Inge, both veterans who had terrible seasons, were very productive, and many of the holes the lineup had this year were at least taped up in this series. Again, metrics and statistics show what has happened over a period of time, but in a period of 5 games (1-2 for most pitchers, not to mention how the suspended game altered the pitching match-ups) things that statistical averages say will happen, may not happen. It is a small sample. I expect the statistics to do better in the 7 games series's and much better when I use the metrics to construct a season preview next year.
My Pre-Statistics picks: 2-0
My statistics picks: 0-2
Teams with higher payroll: 1-1

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