Chiba Lotte and CWAR

In Japan, Chiba Lotte has resigned both Hayden Penn and Carlos Rosa, both will make the equivalent of 750,000 American dollars in 2012 (thanks again to Yusuke Ueno @inter_ueno on Twitter). In 2011, Chiba Lotte had a payroll was 2,237 million yen, or 29 million dollars. This means Chiba Lotte has exactly 1 million dollars to spend per Win Above Replacement, using the formula we used in the Lastings Milledge article. This means they need about a .67 WAR from each Rosa and Penn. However, since they are both pitchers, so we have no simple WAR. Since no Simple WAR calculators for pitchers exist (at least as far as I could find), it made a lot of sense to design one.

So I decided to use a formula that contains of FIP (ERA when FIP is not available), PE, Innings, and Fangraphs WAR. What we will do to determine a WAR ratio is add a pitchers PE and FIP, add 100 to that number (so we don't have to deal with negative numbers) divide by innings pitched, and divide that number by Fangraph's WAR. The average ratio we get will be the number we use for CWAR (since BWAR is Baseball Reference WAR and FWAR is for Fangraphs, CWAR will be Clint WAR). For example, Justin Verlander in 2011 had a PE + FIP of -.74, get 99.26 when you add 100, and divide by 251 innings pitched to get about a .395 number. We divide that number from his Fangraphs WAR of 7, to get a 17.7. We will use the average of Verlander's and other's to determine a ratio for WAR.


I used the 2011 Brewers, which you can view by clicking on the image:

The Second picture here is some notable Japanese pitchers whose WARs were calculated here: http://img.ly/brmL thanks to @yonada on Twitter.

As you can see, the Brewers yielded about a 1.75 average ratio, while the top NPB pitchers registered a 1.93 average ratio. We will take the middle ground and use 1.84. This means that when calculation CWAR, take the initial number, which is FIP+PE divided by Innings Pitched, and have it divided by the ratio like this: 1.84/Initial Number.

So back to the pitchers in question. Carlos Rosa had a PE+FIP of 2.8 (you can find the FIPs for most NPB pitchers here. He threw 73.2 innings, giving him (after you add 100 to the PE+FIP) a 1.40 initial number, which translates to a 1.31 CWAR. This means he is certainly worth the 750,000 dollar contract. Rosa also had 31 appearances in the MLB, and earned a 3.912 PE (.4 WAR), or expected 1.866 PE in the NPB. This means that Rosa has just pitched better than expected in Japan, or that the 2011 success was fluky. Either way, I still like this deal for Chiba Lotte.

Hayden Penn has had a 5.84 PE+FIP in 2 years in Japan, earning a 1.25 CWAR over his 2 years, or .625 CWAR per year. This means he is probably slightly overpaid according to his new deal. In the MLB, he had a PE of 4.926 (-4.1 WAR), or a 2.88 Expected PE in NPB. So he is pitching as about expected in the NPB.

Series Preview: Tigers vs. Rangers

Pre-statistics (somewhat of a misnomer, just before I go over all the numbers like I did in original previews), I had the Rangers going to the World Series, so I have to stick with them for the pre-statistic pick. The Rangers are going to look like this in the starting rotation: Wilson (.148 WAR per start, -1.87 PE), Holland (.55 PE, .081 WAR per Start), Lewis (.061 WAR per start, .51 PE), and Harrison (.13 WAR per Start, 1.17 PE) as starting pitchers. Their projected bullpen looks like this Ogando (3.4 WAR, .3 PE), Feliz (-1.8 PE, .8 WAR), Gonzalez (-.55 PE, .2 WAR) , Adams (-5.24 PE, 1.7 WAR), Uejara (1.2 WAR, -7.09 PE), Oliver (-2.01 PE, 1.2 WAR), and Feldman (.98 PE, .2 WAR). Their lineup will probably look like (in no particular order): Hamilton (.03 WAR per game, 1.723 PPG, 2.42 PAPP), Cruz (.011 WAR per Game, 1.52 PPG, 2.74 PAPP), Murphy (2.74 PAPP, .966 PPG, Negative WAR), Napoli (2.13 PAPP, .045 WAR per game, 1.504 PPG), Kinsler (2.39 PAPP, 1.67 PPG, .035 WAR per Game), Andrus (.024 WAR per game, 1.32 PPG, 2.68 PAPP) Beltre (1.76 PPG, .043 WAR per game, 2.63 PAPP), Torreabla (.006 WAR per game, .75 PPG, 3.14 PAPP), and Young (.015 WAR per game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.33 PPG).

The Tigers, will use 4 starters it looks like: Verlander (-3.73 PE, .253 WAR a start), Scherzer (.44 PE, .073 WAR per start), Fister (.16 PE, .26 WAR a start), and Porcello (3.9 PE, .032 WAR a start). Detroit's lineup will probably look like this (in no order): Jackson, Young, Raburn, Cabrera, Martinez, Aviles, Ordonez, Peralta, and Inge. This adds up to a .127 WAR a game, 10.06 PPG, 25.864 PAPP. Their bullpen will include: Valverde, Coke, Benoit, Perry, Alburquerque, Schlereth, and Pauley. Their stats add up to -13.6 PE, and a 8.1 WAR.

This means that statistically, the Rangers have the better lineup (in fielding and hitting), and better bullpen. However, the Tigers (assuming the series goes 7 games) win 4 out of the 7 starting pitching match-ups (with Holland versus Scherzer twice going a draw statistically, Harrison versus Porcello is the only one the Rangers have a clear advantage on). Having the advantage in the other 3 areas put the numbers fully behind the Rangers.

Playoff Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees

This is the final series of the first round to be previewed. Before looking at the statistics, I had the Tigers winning the series because I felt they had better starting pitching depth and the lineups are similar.

It appears that the Yankees will go with just 3 starters, using Sabathia (.203 WAR per Start, -1.98 PE), Nova (2.24 PE, .129 WAR per start), and Garcia (.13 WAR a start, 1.7 PE). Their bullpen will probably include: Rivera, Robertson, Ayala, Colon, Laffey, Valdes, Soriano, and Logan. Their stats add up to a -8.37 PE and a 9.8 WAR. Their lineup will probably include (in no particular order) Granderson, Swisher, Martin, Texiera, Cano, Jeter, Rodriquez, and Chavez. Their stats add up to a .173 WAR per game, 13.344 PPG, 23.608 PAPP. The Tigers, will use 4 starters it looks like: Verlander (-3.73 PE, .253 WAR a start), Fister (.16 PE, .26 WAR a start), Scherzer (.44 PE, .073 WAR per start), and Penny (9.87 PE, negative WAR). Detroit's lineup will probably look like this (in no order): Jackson, Young, Raburn, Cabrera, Martinez, Aviles, Ordonez, Peralta, and Inge. This adds up to a .127 WAR a game, 10.06 PPG, 25.864 PAPP. Their bullpen will include: Valverde, Coke Benoit, Porcello, Perry, Alburquerque. Schlereth, and Pauley. Their stats add up to -9.7 PE, and a 10.8 WAR.

So while the Tigers have a better bullpen, the Yankees have a better lineup and better starting pitching. That is not good news for the Tigers and so I pick the Yankees after statistics.

Looking back at the Josh Hamilton-Edinson Volquez Trade

Its always fun to look back at old trades and see which team "won" the trade. Just on the surface of it, it appears that the Rangers won this trade with the Reds. After the 07 season, the Rangers sent Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera to the Reds for Josh Hamilton. Herrera (currently a member of the Mets, after beginning the season with the Brewers) spent 3 years with Cincinnati and recorded an even 0 WAR (Wins above Replacement), meaning he was no more than a replacement player or an average backup player. He made about $1,212,500 in salary in his time as a Red, making his WASP (War and Salary Per) 2,425. Volquez (still a member of the Reds, but has been up and down between AAA and the Majors this year, after being the Game 1 starter in the ALDS last year) has posted a 4.3 WAR in his 4 seasons as a Red (for comparison, Cliff Lee has a 6.1 just this year, and Verlander has a 7.7 this year, and WAR is not an average, it can and should be added up). In that time, he has made $2,897,500 in salary. This gives him a WASP (WASP works like an average, unlike WAR) of about 673 overall, which is actually very nice (his WASP for this year is 5346 though). Since Josh Hamilton has been a Ranger, he has made $11,451,830, much more than Volquez and Herrera combined. However, he has compiled a 16.8 WAR (along with an AL MVP and MVP of the ALCS), giving him a WASP of 681 overall (almost the exact same as Volquez). So it appears with both WAR and WASP (mainly because of Herrera's failure) the Rangers won this trade.

Why it is ridiculous to say that a great hitter is more valuable than a great pitcher

As the season gets close to ending, the MVP talk is starting to heat up. With the awesome year Justin Verlander is having there has been some talk about whether he should not only win the Cy Young Award, but perhaps the MVP as well. Now I don't want to discuss whether he deserves it as not (I like having separate awards for position players and the pitchers, but that is just my little opinion), but there has been one interesting critique that I want to smash. Some have said that a pitcher can't be as valuable as a position player, because the position player is on the field everyday, while the pitcher is only on the field every 5 days (or on the Yankees and White Sox, 6 days). Before we look at some statistics, lets just reason this out. In a 5 day span a batter (in a good offense) would get about 20 plate appearances. In a start, most pitchers will face at least that many batters (not to mention, a pitcher can shut down the entire lineup for the entire game, ensuring a win, a hitter can only drive in a bunch of runs, which doesn't necessarily have the same value. For example, a hitter can get 5 rbis but the pitcher could give up 6 runs. If a pitcher shuts out the opposing team, they can't lose). As far as fielding, most defensive chances are routine plays that every major leaguers could make, with probably one sparkling opportunity (rough estimate) in 5 days (except Sam Fuld and Asdrubal Cabrera, who seemed to make 1 a game in the first half of this season). Not to mention that a great pitcher can be pitched around, if not pitched to. You can't "hit around" a pitcher (besides maybe bunting). But now to statistics (mainly Sabermetrics), we will look at 4 players: Cliff Lee, Curtis Granderson, Verlander, and Jacoby Ellsbury (all Cy Young and MVP candidates). Because most statistics between pitchers and hitters cannot really be compared (the only really other thing we have is comparative standards, like a .300 batting average is the standard of good, as is an ERA of under 4, etc. That wouldn't be helpful), we will have to rely almost exclusively on the statistic WAR (Wins after Replacement, which measures how many wins the player gives you over a regular player). For many people, Curtis Granderson is a favorite for the AL MVP, and his WAR is 5.2 (its actually negative on defense, meaning he is an under-average fielder for the first time since he became a full time player in the big leagues. Verlander's WAR is a shocking 7.7. Ellsbury's is 6.5, making him more valuable than Granderson, but still not as valuable as Verlander (all this is according to how Baseball Reference, one of the most respected places for baseball stats rates the WAR). Cliff Lee has thrown himself in the ring as well, with a 6.1. Unless one believes that WAR (and sabermetrics in general) is just bogus, then it appears that great pitchers are at least as valuable as great hitters.