Breaking down Takayuki Kishi's No-Hitter

On Friday, Seibu Lions right-hander Takayuki Kishi threw a no-hitter against the Chiba Lotte Marines, completing the shutout in 117 pitches. For this week's look at a NPB pitcher, with Yuki Matsui still in the Ni-gun, I thought it would make sense to look at his no-hitter and see how he was so successful in his outing.

First, let's take a look at his pitch velocities, labelled with the Yahoo tags, along with his pitch count.

He did an okay job of holding his velocity throughout, though his fastest fastballs came at the very beginning of the game. He then fell a couple of ticks down for a while before a short spike. He then slowed down again before his last couple of fastballs when he got his fastball up to about where it was at the very beginning of the game.

While Kishi has been a good NPB pitcher for quite sometime now, he is not a household name, especially for those who do not follow the NPB with regularity. So I think it might be helpful to see what the average velocity of his pitches were in the game, just to give a better idea of what his average stuff is like. The bar itself is based on KMH, while the number in the parenthesis is in MPH:

He is not a hard thrower by MLB standards, and only really average at best when compared to NPB standards. He has a slow hook, and a change that is under 80 MPH, but his slider has a respectable velocity of 81-82 MPH. 

In an attempt to see how Kishi was successful in the game on Friday, let's look at how often he used the four pitches he showed off:

He used his fastball a relatively normal amount, and didn't seem to fall in love with any of his off-speed pitches. His slider was his least used pitch, while his change was his second most used pitch. This may have to do with the platoon of the opposing batters.

Obviously Kishi didn't give up any hits, but a further look at his pitch results may reveal exactly why he didn't give up hits:

Notice that he was much more of a flyball pitcher than a groundball pitcher, and his whiff percentage was only slightly above average. He gave up a lot of contact and didn't strike out a lot of hitters. However, this shows that he threw a lot of strikes.

Where exactly did he throw these pitches? This graph should give us a good idea:

Overall, Kishi was pretty balanced, not ignoring a location, or focusing on just one. Low in the strike zone seemed to be the norm, as glove low and arm low were his two favorite locations. However, middle low was his least frequent, meaning that he threw it to one side when he threw it low, which matches what we see on high pitches. He also stayed out of the very middle of the plate.

What is impressive about this last fact is that Kishi threw a large amount of pitches in the strike zone:

The above graphs suggest that he lived on the corners of the strike zone very well.

The last four graphs will be about his fastball, with the first two showing his fastball results by velocity and pitch count, and then by percentage.

Strangely, many of his hardest thrown fastballs were either fouls or balls. Most of the flyballs came on the middle velocity fastballs or the slowest fastballs, not surprising. He also seemed to get whiffs with his fastball earlier in the game than later in the game. The graph seems to show the uptick in velocity back to where it was at the beginning of the game late that I noted in the first graph.

Oddly, his fastball was a more efficient whiff pitch than his other pitches, but it also ended up being foul balls a lot as well. His strike percentage was exceptionally high with the pitch, as was his flyball percentage.

Now, let's look at how he located the fastball, first by velocity and pitch count:

Now by percentage:

He really liked to throw it high, and he balanced keeping it arm side, glove side, and middle while doing so. When he threw it low, it was usually arm side. He almost never kept it arm side and in the middle of the plate.

Free Agent Watch: Armando Galarraga

This was the pitcher that was robbed of a no-hitter by a bad call at first base last year. Since then, things haven't gone as well. His ERA in 2011 with the Arizona Diamondbacks was 5.91 and he had a 4.36 PE. Obviously these numbers are way too high. He has a career ERA of 4.69 and a PE of 2.91. In 2011, he had a 60% strike percentage (his career number is 62%), and struck out 6 batters per 9 innings (his career number is 5.72). In addition to his terrible major league year, he also had 5 terrible AAA starts where he struggled with the long ball in 2011. In his major league career, he has given up 1.53 HR/9IP, which is way too much. No matter what, he is going to give up a lot of bombs. He has shown the ability to be a back of rotation starter, but his ugly 2011 season should really concern people. In 08, he posted a 3.1 WAR, which would be a 129 WASP at "minimum wage", and would be one of the tops in the league. However, the rest of the years, he isn't worth more than a minor league/minimum wage contract. At 29, he is too young to be "washed up", but he should have peaked physically, and last years' horrible year becomes even more concerning. He has the ability to do well, and he has at times, one just wonders about his mental state and whether he will ever develop consistency. Time is absolutely running out. Some metrics, such as the percentage of strikes and strikeouts (see above), have stayed the same, so one wonders if he was lucky in 08, or unlucky now? If you can bring him in on a nonroster invitation or minor league contract, it seems worth it to bring him to spring training and see how he does.

Why it is ridiculous to say that a great hitter is more valuable than a great pitcher

As the season gets close to ending, the MVP talk is starting to heat up. With the awesome year Justin Verlander is having there has been some talk about whether he should not only win the Cy Young Award, but perhaps the MVP as well. Now I don't want to discuss whether he deserves it as not (I like having separate awards for position players and the pitchers, but that is just my little opinion), but there has been one interesting critique that I want to smash. Some have said that a pitcher can't be as valuable as a position player, because the position player is on the field everyday, while the pitcher is only on the field every 5 days (or on the Yankees and White Sox, 6 days). Before we look at some statistics, lets just reason this out. In a 5 day span a batter (in a good offense) would get about 20 plate appearances. In a start, most pitchers will face at least that many batters (not to mention, a pitcher can shut down the entire lineup for the entire game, ensuring a win, a hitter can only drive in a bunch of runs, which doesn't necessarily have the same value. For example, a hitter can get 5 rbis but the pitcher could give up 6 runs. If a pitcher shuts out the opposing team, they can't lose). As far as fielding, most defensive chances are routine plays that every major leaguers could make, with probably one sparkling opportunity (rough estimate) in 5 days (except Sam Fuld and Asdrubal Cabrera, who seemed to make 1 a game in the first half of this season). Not to mention that a great pitcher can be pitched around, if not pitched to. You can't "hit around" a pitcher (besides maybe bunting). But now to statistics (mainly Sabermetrics), we will look at 4 players: Cliff Lee, Curtis Granderson, Verlander, and Jacoby Ellsbury (all Cy Young and MVP candidates). Because most statistics between pitchers and hitters cannot really be compared (the only really other thing we have is comparative standards, like a .300 batting average is the standard of good, as is an ERA of under 4, etc. That wouldn't be helpful), we will have to rely almost exclusively on the statistic WAR (Wins after Replacement, which measures how many wins the player gives you over a regular player). For many people, Curtis Granderson is a favorite for the AL MVP, and his WAR is 5.2 (its actually negative on defense, meaning he is an under-average fielder for the first time since he became a full time player in the big leagues. Verlander's WAR is a shocking 7.7. Ellsbury's is 6.5, making him more valuable than Granderson, but still not as valuable as Verlander (all this is according to how Baseball Reference, one of the most respected places for baseball stats rates the WAR). Cliff Lee has thrown himself in the ring as well, with a 6.1. Unless one believes that WAR (and sabermetrics in general) is just bogus, then it appears that great pitchers are at least as valuable as great hitters.