Talking About R.A. Dickey's Knuckleball Locations

R.A. Dickey has not been able to repeat his Cy Young season after being traded to the Blue Jays. Even adjusting for league change (that is, facing tougher competition on average), Dickey has regressed to a level that is closer to how he pitched with the Twins than the one he pitched at with the Mets.

I hadn't touched Dickey yet because I knew I would have nothing to add to the great research already done on knuckleballs. However, I had found no good articles talking about and trying to quantify Dickey's pitch locations from this season. The best articles I have read on Dickey's 2013 have been about movement (and release point) and velocity. There was some thought that maybe he was back, but his horrible start against the Twins on Saturday suggests otherwise.

Even Dickey himself said his dominant start against the Rays was more about location (though nearly all pitchers say that). So,. using average locations, I thought it would be helpful to take a look at how he is locating the knuckleball, and whether that gives us a better look and understanding as to why Dickey is struggling. When it comes to location, I am only going to look at the knuckleball in this post, as that is his feature pitch and what everyone talks about when discussing Dickey. First, let's compare his average knuckleball location in 2012 and 2013 (entire graph is the strike zone):

Dickey is throwing the knuckler slightly more arm side and lower on average than he was in 2012. I originally got the idea for this post because of how high the average knuckler swinging strike was on average. I thought that the knuckler being higher would be a bad thing, but his dominant 2012 had an average knuckler very high in the zone. Just to make sure that the higher knuckler is a better knuckler, the following graphs break down his average knuckleball locations sorted by result. First, here is 2013

Dickey's whiffs this year come when he gets the knuckler glove side on average and keeps the ball high. When he gives up contact (no real difference in average location between contact and homers for him this season), it is on pitches lower in the zone and more arm side. We get similar results when looking at 2012

So it would appear that a high knuckler is a good thing. I was curious to see if this was unique to Dickey, so I looked at the other pitcher with a high volume of knucklers in the Pitch F/X era

While getting it glove side was better for Wakefield (just like Dickey), he succeeded more when he got the knuckler low. So perhaps this is more unique to Dickey's "hard" knuckleball. However, Dickey is still having success up despite the velocity drop. The problem is that he just isn't getting it up quite as much.

Despite the location changes, his actual release point change has been very minor

One would expect (at least I would expect), that if he was hurting, he would have a harder time getting the ball down. Instead, the problem is that he is not getting the ball up. It is not as if a softer knuckler can't stay up, as Wakefield's appears to have stayed up on average, throwing it in the top half of the strike zone. Perhaps there is a slight mechanical issue I am missing, as it does not appear to be Rogers Centre, as he is locating the knuckleball higher at home (2.6 feet on average versus 2.45 feet on the road).

Playoff Preview: Tigers vs. Yankees

This is the final series of the first round to be previewed. Before looking at the statistics, I had the Tigers winning the series because I felt they had better starting pitching depth and the lineups are similar.

It appears that the Yankees will go with just 3 starters, using Sabathia (.203 WAR per Start, -1.98 PE), Nova (2.24 PE, .129 WAR per start), and Garcia (.13 WAR a start, 1.7 PE). Their bullpen will probably include: Rivera, Robertson, Ayala, Colon, Laffey, Valdes, Soriano, and Logan. Their stats add up to a -8.37 PE and a 9.8 WAR. Their lineup will probably include (in no particular order) Granderson, Swisher, Martin, Texiera, Cano, Jeter, Rodriquez, and Chavez. Their stats add up to a .173 WAR per game, 13.344 PPG, 23.608 PAPP. The Tigers, will use 4 starters it looks like: Verlander (-3.73 PE, .253 WAR a start), Fister (.16 PE, .26 WAR a start), Scherzer (.44 PE, .073 WAR per start), and Penny (9.87 PE, negative WAR). Detroit's lineup will probably look like this (in no order): Jackson, Young, Raburn, Cabrera, Martinez, Aviles, Ordonez, Peralta, and Inge. This adds up to a .127 WAR a game, 10.06 PPG, 25.864 PAPP. Their bullpen will include: Valverde, Coke Benoit, Porcello, Perry, Alburquerque. Schlereth, and Pauley. Their stats add up to -9.7 PE, and a 10.8 WAR.

So while the Tigers have a better bullpen, the Yankees have a better lineup and better starting pitching. That is not good news for the Tigers and so I pick the Yankees after statistics.

Ian Kennedy and the Cy Young

I don't think pitching records matter at all. They are just decorative and fun, but Arizona Diamondback pitcher Ian Kennedy is 21-4! Kennedy's WAR is 5.5 (Clayton Kershaw is clearly more deserving for the Cy Young at 6.8 WAR). Remember that the Yankees had this guy, and traded him in that 3 team deal that sent Austin Jackson to Detroit and Curtis Granderson to New York. His career in New York was marred by several different injuries. In 3 starts in 07, he had an ERA of 1.89, WHIP of 1.158, and a WAR of .6. This is a WAR per start of .2, Cliff Lee has a .219 WAR per start. Of course for Kennedy in 07, this was a small sample size, but the statistic potential was definitely there. In 2010, his first year in Arizona, he posted a 2.7 WAR in 32 starts. This was only .084 WAR a start, but he had a 3.80 ERA with a WHIP of 1.2, nothing to sneeze at all. This doesn't even mention that he was only making 403 thousand dollars last year, giving him a great WASP of 149.3. I have heard some analysts say that no one could have seen Kennedy's season coming, and I find that quite hard to believe. Only people with their heads in the sand, or people that don't pay attention to numbers could have not saw this coming. In AAA in 09, Kennedy made 4 starts and posted a 1.59 ERA, had more strikeouts than innings pitched, and a WHIP of 1.103. There was a reason the Yankees took him in the first round. Kennedy has put it all together this year, posting a 2.88 ERA, a .17 WAR per start, a WHIP of 1.086, and 8 strikeouts per 9 innings. It has been a very special year, but it should have been expected.

A reminder of how great Cy Young was

The 100th anniversary of Cy Young's last win (he hasn't won a game in a 100 years? What a slacker.) was this past week. When you look at Cy Young's numbers, you realize just how special he was. One thing I find interesting, and this probably has to do with how many pitches he had to throw, was that he was not a strikeout pitcher (only 3.84 strikeouts per 9 innings). He very much pitched to contact, walking just 1 per 9 innings in his career. His career ERA was 2.36, and his FIP (fielder independent ERA) was just 2.57. His career WHIP was a very nice 1.130. Then there is the sheer fact that this guy pitched for 22 seasons! 5 of those years he threw over 400 innings (no one really throws 250 any more), and 16 years he threw at least 300 innings.

The (kind of) Efficient Tigers

They are ranked 10th in payroll, so they have money and are able to spend it, but they can't miss as much as teams like the Phillies or Yankees.They have shown to be Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to salary efficiency. They have really missed bad on some big money players, or they have just been having down years, while some young players being paid almost nothing are huge contributors for the recently  clinched AL Central Champions.
Alex Aliva has an amazing WASP of 78.7, even better than Mike Stanton's. He was the starting catcher in the All-Star game for the American League at age 24. He has an OBP of .388, an OPS of .902, a .220 Isolated Slugging (for comparison, David Ortiz has a .265, Evan Longoria a .250, and Carlos Lee a .180), .367 average on balls put in play, and has created 86.5 runs for the Tigers.
Their ace, Cy Young favorite, and MVP candidate Justin Verlander is at a very good 1593 WASP. I have already written about Doug Fister and his amazing WASP, and Austin Jackson has an awesome 440 WASP.Their high paid slugger Miguel Cabrera is around the Halladay Standard at 3174.
Valverde the closer who has been perfect in save opportunities has a Halladay Standard WASP of around 3000 as well.
Some of their big disappointments have been Magglio Ordonez who has a terrible 39000 WASP, Victor Martinez is also overpaid at 4800 and Brandon Inge's is a horrific 14850.
Good trades and development, along with some extra cash, have outweighed the Tigers bad free agent contracts.

Why it is ridiculous to say that a great hitter is more valuable than a great pitcher

As the season gets close to ending, the MVP talk is starting to heat up. With the awesome year Justin Verlander is having there has been some talk about whether he should not only win the Cy Young Award, but perhaps the MVP as well. Now I don't want to discuss whether he deserves it as not (I like having separate awards for position players and the pitchers, but that is just my little opinion), but there has been one interesting critique that I want to smash. Some have said that a pitcher can't be as valuable as a position player, because the position player is on the field everyday, while the pitcher is only on the field every 5 days (or on the Yankees and White Sox, 6 days). Before we look at some statistics, lets just reason this out. In a 5 day span a batter (in a good offense) would get about 20 plate appearances. In a start, most pitchers will face at least that many batters (not to mention, a pitcher can shut down the entire lineup for the entire game, ensuring a win, a hitter can only drive in a bunch of runs, which doesn't necessarily have the same value. For example, a hitter can get 5 rbis but the pitcher could give up 6 runs. If a pitcher shuts out the opposing team, they can't lose). As far as fielding, most defensive chances are routine plays that every major leaguers could make, with probably one sparkling opportunity (rough estimate) in 5 days (except Sam Fuld and Asdrubal Cabrera, who seemed to make 1 a game in the first half of this season). Not to mention that a great pitcher can be pitched around, if not pitched to. You can't "hit around" a pitcher (besides maybe bunting). But now to statistics (mainly Sabermetrics), we will look at 4 players: Cliff Lee, Curtis Granderson, Verlander, and Jacoby Ellsbury (all Cy Young and MVP candidates). Because most statistics between pitchers and hitters cannot really be compared (the only really other thing we have is comparative standards, like a .300 batting average is the standard of good, as is an ERA of under 4, etc. That wouldn't be helpful), we will have to rely almost exclusively on the statistic WAR (Wins after Replacement, which measures how many wins the player gives you over a regular player). For many people, Curtis Granderson is a favorite for the AL MVP, and his WAR is 5.2 (its actually negative on defense, meaning he is an under-average fielder for the first time since he became a full time player in the big leagues. Verlander's WAR is a shocking 7.7. Ellsbury's is 6.5, making him more valuable than Granderson, but still not as valuable as Verlander (all this is according to how Baseball Reference, one of the most respected places for baseball stats rates the WAR). Cliff Lee has thrown himself in the ring as well, with a 6.1. Unless one believes that WAR (and sabermetrics in general) is just bogus, then it appears that great pitchers are at least as valuable as great hitters.