Saturday, October 8, 2011
Free Agent Watch: Felix Pie
Another player that has opted for free agency is the former Cub/Oriole Felix Pie. Pie has a career .298 Major-League OBP, posting just a .264 in 85 games in 2011. In AAA in the Cubs organization, he had a .410 OBP in 55 games, but this seems to be more of an aberration. His career PPG is .66, and his career PAPP is 3.12. His career OPS is just .673, while the league average has been .758 in that time. His career best was in 09, where he was slightly above average at .763. He has only 109 Runs Created in 398 games, only .27 a game (don't confuse this metric with RC/G, which measures runs created per 27 outs made). For comparison, Andres Blanco has a .255, Lucas Duda a .5, and Dee Gordon also has a .5. He has only seen 3.61 pitches per plate appearance in his career, below the league average of 3.82. He actually had a lower pitches per plate appearance in his decent year in 09, (at 3.51) which further shows that 09 may have been luck or a fluke. His GB/FB ratio was .68 in 09, but 1.08 in 10, and 1.36 in 11. He had a 1.4 WAR in 09, but a -1.5 in 2011. In his 5 years, he has a career WAR of 1.3. This is .0035 WAR a game, which it would be a .57 WAR in 162 games. That would be worth 1.7 million according to the Halladay Standard, but all this assumes he doesn't play as terribly as he did in 11. Even in Pies' 09 year, a team with 25 Pies' would only win 35 more games than a "replacement team" (a "replacement team" would win 49 games, as I have previously calculated). This would be 84 wins. In his average year, a 25 Pie team would win just 14.25 games over a "replacement team". That is only 63 wins, just short of 100 losses. Baseball reference scores him with guys like Ruben Mateo and Tsuyoshi Shinjo. That says all you need to know, I would run far away from Pie.