Hitting Outside Pitches and 2007 Top Hitting Prospects

In a previous post, I looked at how some elite hitters were pitched when they first came up to the big leagues. I found that they were pitched low and away with heavy frequency. In this post, I will look at the 1st real season frequency of hitters in the Majors, and compare it to their TAV zones and their career frequency zones. In this post, all data is right-handed hitter normalized, all using Brooks Baseball's heat maps again. I want to test the thesis that hitters are pitched low and away more than average when they first come up, and then add another thesis. The secondary thesis is that one of the key differences between hitters that prove to be successful versus some that aren't is the ability to handle the low and away pitch in strike zone.

Here I think is a good example of a successful hitter showing that the thesis is correct as the hitter showed that they can hit the pitch on the outside part of the strike zone and low. Pitchers then have to go inside, or at least quit throwing in these zones as much, in the future. Here is Justin Upton's 2008 map, where we see that pitchers threw a lot of pitches on the mid outside part of the plate, and off the plate in general:

Now, let's fast foward to now, looking back at his career so far, in which he has accumulated 66 runs more than an average player (according to BR's RBAT):

Notice that Upton is a good hitter no matter where in the zone, but that he is actually better (when compared to other right-handed hitters) on low and outside pitches than inside pitches. Thus, Upton's frequency map now looks like this:

Pitchers mainly try to throw it to him low and away, but outside of the zone, as he gets about an average amount of pitches low and away in the strike zone. I think this argument gets stronger when we look at Andy Laroche. Laroche was a big bust, worth -45 runs with the bat in his career. Because the sample sizes for 2007 and 2008 are small in themselves, I included maps from both of those years below:

Up and Away was also a spot pitchers tried to challenge Laroche, but low and away was common as well. Laroche proved to be okay in his career on up and away balls, but low and away was his worst zone:

Therefore, pitchers continued to exploit the hole:

So in the rest of the post, I will look at the rest of the right-handed hitters on the top 100 prospects in 2007 according to Baseball America (I didn't include Brian Barton because he had just one real year in the Majors) and see if my thesis holds weight on a larger scale. To cut down on the amount of maps and amount of words you have to view (and I have to insert), I am only going to look at two zones for each hitter, the low and away part of the zone and away middle part of the zone, that is, the one in the strike zone that is on the bottom right and the one just above that, and I'll just use a numbers format.

Delmon Young: -15 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 67.94, 79.25

Career TAV: 115, 108

Career Frequency: 99.22, 104.76

Support Thesis: No

Evan Longoria: 128 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 106.94, 117.01

Career TAV: 119, 117

Career Frequency: 104.08, 101.05

Support Thesis: Yes

Brandon Wood: -55 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 98.23, 97.43

Career TAV: 53, 68

Career Frequency: 103.02, 96.39

Support Thesis: Mostly

Cameron Maybin: -23 rBAT

2009 Frequency: 98.93, 115.73

Career TAV: 95, 93

Career Frequency: 91.95, 102.86

Support Thesis: No

Chris Young: -33 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 122.36, 90.67

Career TAV: 103, 92

Career Frequency: 111.91, 103.95

Support Thesis: Not Really

Andrew McCutchen: 109 rBAT

2009 Frequency: 111.86, 96.08

Career TAV: 100, 100

Career Frequency: 104.52, 104.44

Support Thesis: Not Really

Troy Tulowitzski: 80 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 126.56, 76.5

Career TAV: 122, 119

Career Frequency: 100.99, 99.13

Support Thesis: Not Really

Billy Butler: 99 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 116.36, 86.92

Career TAV: 116, 98

Career Frequency: 89.25, 92.28

Support Thesis: Yes

Ryan Braun: 245 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 69.04, 101.08

Career TAV: 135, 132

Career Frequency: 88.06, 98.12

Support Thesis: No

Jose Tabata: -8 rBAT

2010 Frequency: 106.43, 94.97

Career TAV: 110, 93

Career Frequency: 99.08, 85.23

Support Thesis: No, in the sense that he isn't a good hitter. He did improve in that space and get pitched less there.

Adam Jones: 34 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 87.49, 85.68

Career TAV: 120, 103

Career Frequency: 95.51, 97.9

Support Thesis: Strangely, even though he proved to be really good in those zones (and a good hitter), he gets pitched there more now.

Hunter Pence: 92 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 103.08, 69.36

Career TAV: 113, 127

Career Frequency: 92.79, 109.99

Support Thesis: Same as Jones

Josh Fields: -17 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 77.45, 76.43

Career TAV: 106, 83

Career Frequency: 86.12, 91.29

Support Thesis: Not Really, he was never especially good there, but pitchers threw in on him his whole career.

Carlos Gomez: -46 rBAT

2008 Frequency:  102.77, 109.62

Career TAV: 94, 126

Career Frequency: 98.49, 110.56

Support Thesis:  Not really, despite showing he can hit there (and not being successful overall), he has continued to be pitched there.

Elvis Andrus: -45 rBAT

2009 Frequency: 89.62, 90.11

Career TAV: 81, 84

Career Frequency: 92.01, 93.75

Support Thesis: No, he struggles there, but isn't pitched there a lot.

Elijah Dukes: 7 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 107.23, 75.04

Career TAV: 139, 84

Career Frequency: 97.46, 105.99

Support Thesis: Mixed really.

Drew Stubbs: -30 rBAT

2010 Frequency: 83.32, 123.62

Career TAV: 114, 77

Career Frequency: 91.77, 115.26

Support Thesis: Sort of, though it is not definite.

Kurt Suzuki: -45 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 111.75, 84.11

Career TAV: 94, 91

Career Frequency: 101.22, 97.84

Support Thesis: Again, sort of.

Chris Iannetta: 2 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 142.65, 68.64

Career TAV: 108, 74

Career Frequency: 106.21, 97.6

Support Thesis: Same, sort of.

Brent Lillibridge: -35 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 117.38, 124.19

Career TAV: 68, 80

Career Frequency: 112.22, 100.62

Support Thesis: No. Even though he proved to be bad, and terrible in the zones, he was actually pitched less in the zones for his career.

So when the twenty hitters profiled, when they first came up, they had an average normalized frequency in the specified zones of 102.37 and 93.12. So they don't actually seem to be pitched low and away more than an average right-handed hitter when they first came up. For their careers, they have a 103.66 and 100.45 normalized frequency, meaning that on average, they were pitched more in that zone after their first year in the Major. If we break it down by successful and unsuccessful hitters (above average being successful), the unsuccessful hitters have a 98.92 and 100.23 frequency in those zones, while the successful hitters had a 97.65 and 100.72, no real difference between the two.

It would seem that my thesis is incorrect, or at least too simplistic. There doesn't seem to be any relationship between success and frequency in the low and away strike zone.

Is Josh Hamilton Overrated?

Over the past 3 years, including his MVP year, Josh Hamilton has a 4.03 WAR average, worth 12.1 million. He will make 13.75 million in 2012. Hamilton has a career .366 OBP. To give you an idea of how that fits in with the league, there were 29 players (that had the minimum amount of plate appearances) with equal or better than .366 OBP in 2011. This list includes the ones you might expect like Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, but also includes guys like Alberto Callaspo and Casey Kotchman. However, it is not as if Hamilton sucks at getting on base, as one assumes that each of the 30 teams have 13 hitters, Hamilton would still be in the top 8%. Hamilton was also the OPS leader in 2010, and has a career OPS of .909, which would have been 16th in the Majors in 2011. His PAPP is very solid at 2.4, and his PPG is really nice at 1.61. Known for exciting defense of plays and disregard for his own safety, he has an under average fielding percentage and slightly above average range factor. In 2011, he cost the Rangers at least 3 runs with his fielding overall, and in his career is actually worth -1 run defensively, meaning he slightly hurts his team in the field. His 2010 MVP season should have alarmed some people, as he had an absolutely unrealistic .390 BABIP. It should have been pretty obvious that he could not repeat that season in 2011. His Secondary Average and ISO are both pretty good at .336 and .234 (these two were both about the same in 2010 and 2011, perhaps showing that these statistics are more reliable and less fluky). His career Runs Created per game is impressive at 7.5, giving him an Offensive Winning Percentage of .688. Certainly everyone would like to have him in their offense. There are certainly flaws in Hamilton's offense game though, as he walks slightly less than league average and sees less pitches per plate appearance than average. This is concerning because not only do you think a dangerous power hitter should be able to walk and make a pitcher work more than normal, but it also means inconsistency. Players that are able to walk and see more pitches are almost always more consistent hitters, and for Hamilton consistency seems to be somewhat a problem. One year he is one of the leagues best, the next, he is just above average. So to answer the question, yes Josh Hamilton is a bit overrated. There is no question he is an exciting player, and that he is an above average player, but he simply does not belong in the class of Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols, and the leagues best players.

Trying to establish a college metric

There are about 350 players in the Majors that played Division 1 College Baseball. As college baseball drafting has become more important in the past decade (thanks to things like Moneyball), it seems crucial to develop a metric to measure the difference between Division 1 and the Major Leagues. I used Baseball Cube for the statistics, and they did not have most college stats before 2000, which is fine (I could have found them elsewhere), because we can stick to basically a decade of college baseball. I also did not include players that had a small number of at-bats at either the Majors or College. I excluded Rickie Weeks because his crazy numbers (3.9 PPG, .94 ABPP) would have skewed the data, and if anyone puts up those kinds of stats in college, of course you draft them. Anyone else missed is due to human error.
Alex Avila: In College: 1.95 ABPP (same as PAPP except using ABs instead of PAs for convenience purposes), 1.92 PPG, and 947 OPS. In Majors: 2.2 ABPP, .96 PPG, 815 OPS.
Matt Downs: In College: 2.25 ABPP, 1.7 PPG,and 822 OPS. In Majors: 2.68 ABPP, .65 PPG, and 741 OPS.
Trevor Crowe: In College: 1.75 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1016 OPS. In Majors: 2.85 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 625 OPS
Nick Hundley: In College: 1.87 ABPP, 1.8 PPG, and 1004 OPS. In Majors: 2.71 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 734 OPS
Travis Buck: In College: 1.74 ABPP, 2.2 PPG, and 981 OPS. In Majors: 2.65 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 727 OPS.
Brooks Conrad: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 928 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .54 PPG, and 733 OPS.
Ike Davis: In College: 1.91 ABPP, 2.38 PPG, and 1015 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.19 PPG, and 817 OPS
Andre Ethier: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 1035 OPS. In Majors: 2.28 ABPP, 1.16 PPG, and 843 OPS.
Dustin Pedroia: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 2.1 PPG, and 1010 OPS. In Majors: 2.17 ABPP, 1.37 PPG, and 837 OPS
Brett Wallace: In College: 1.5 ABPP, 2.71 PPG, and 1197OPS. In Majors: 2.82 ABPP, .61 PPG, and 677 OPS.
Craig Gentry: In College: 2.09 ABPP, 1.57 PPG, and 846 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .75 PPG, and 620 OPS. 

David Murphy: In College: 1.89 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 967 OPS. In Majors: 2.37 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 786 OPS
Kelly Shoppach: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 2 PPG, and 1047 OPS. In Majors: 2.71 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 732 OPS.
Nolan Reimold: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 1.96 PPG, and 1127 OPS. In Majors: 2.322 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 779 OPS
Brent Morel: In College: 2.28 ABPP, 1.65 PPG, and 892 OPS. In Majors: 3.03 ABPP, .82 PPG, and 657 OPS.
Kurt Suzuki: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 1.88 PPG, and 1090 OPS. In Majors: 2.78 ABPP, .99 PPG, and 706 OPS
Justin Turner: In College: 2.2 ABPP, 1.65 PPG, and 823 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, .85 PPG, and 666 OPS
John Baker: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.31 PPG, and 939 OPS. In Majors: 2.4 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 757 OPS.
Brennan Boesch: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 936 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, 1.16 PPG, and 766 OPS.
Allen Craig: In College 2.11 ABPP, 1.56 PPG, and 867 OPS. In Majors: 2.34 ABPP, 1.03 PPG, and 842 OPS.
Conor Jackson: In College 1.71 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 1031 OPS. Majors: 2.38 ABPP, 1.01 PPG, and 757 OPS.
Xavier Nady: In College: 1.7 ABPP,  2.55 PPG, and 1074 OPS. Majors: 2.67 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 766 OPS
Tony Campana: In College: 1.84 ABPP, 1.97 PPG, and 784 OPS. Majors: 2.1 ABPP, .58 PPG, and 603 OPS.
Kevin Youkilis: In College: 1.19 ABPP, 3.14 PPG, and 1264 OPS. Majors: 2.07 ABPP, 1.4 PPG, and 883 OPS.
Jeff Baker: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 2.56 PPG, and 1048 OPS. In Majors: 2.63 ABPP, .78 PPG, and 758 OPS
Brett Gardner: In College: 1.64 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 963 OPS. In Majors: 2.08 ABPP, 1.14 PPG, and 721 OPS
Brian Bixler: In College: 1.65 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 1024 OPS. In Majors: 3.79 ABPP, .29 PPG, and 495 OPS.
Mark Ellis: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 914 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.05 PPG, and 728 OPS.
Matt LaPorta: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 2.25 PPG, and 1140 OPS. In Majors: 2.75 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 701 OPS
David Ross: In College: 2.05 ABPP, 1.41 PPG, and 916 OPS. In Majors: 2.44 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 768 OPS.
Stephen Drew: In College: 1.54 ABPP, 2.91 PPG, and 1177 OPS. In Majors: 2.54 ABPP, 1.09 PPG, and 773 OPS
Buster Posey: In College: 1.6 ABPP, 2.41 PPG, and 1113 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, 1.18 PPG, and 815 OPS
Casey McGehee: In College: 2.16 ABPP, 1.59 PPG, and 883 OPS. In Majors: 2.63 ABPP, 1.08 PPG, and 746 OPS.
Gordon Beckham: In College: 2.29 ABPP, 2.36 PPG, and 1048 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, .99 PPG, and 704 OPS.
Jeff Keppinger: In College: 1.68 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1074 OPS. In Majors: 2.73 ABPP, .85 PPG, and 720 OPS
Mark Teixeira: In College: 1.21 ABPP, 3.26 PPG, and 1319 OPS. In Majors: 2.10 ABPP, 1.62 PPG, and 904 OPS.
Matt Wieters: In College: 1.58 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1071 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 743 OPS.
Jason Bay: In College: 1.43 ABPP, 2.6 PPG, and 1150 OPS. In Majors: 2.06 ABPP, 1.48 PPG, and 863 OPS
Michael Bourn: In College: 1.67 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 802 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 694 OPS.
Rob Johnson: In College: 2.22 ABPP, 1.75 PPG and 868 OPS. In Majors: 3.17 ABPP, .57 PPG, and 573 OPS.
Chris Snyder: 1.68 ABPP, 2.04 PPG and 1035 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, .87 PPG, and 727 OPS.
Daniel Murphy: 1.91 ABPP, 1.64 PPG, and 917 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .93 PPG, and 784 OPS
Emmanuel Burris: 1.83 ABPP, 1.91 PPG, and 797 OPS. In Majors: 2.74 ABPP, .64 PPG, 592 OPS.
Danny Espinosa: In College: 2.32 ABPP, 1.49 PPG, and 850 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.15 PPG, and 735 OPS.
Evan Longoria: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.56 PPG and 924 OPS. In Majors: 2.13 ABPP, 1.58 PPG, and 874 OPS.
Troy Tulowitzki: In College: 2.33 ABPP, 1.58 PPG and 873 OPS. In Majors: 2.19 ABPP, 1.51 PPG, and 869 OPS
Jonathan Lucroy: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.98 PPG and 1028 OPS. In Majors: 2.83 ABPP, .83 PPG and 674 OPS
Aaron Hill: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 2.14 PPG, and 1007 OPS. In Majors: 2.74 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 737 OPS.
Dan Uggla: In College: 1.74 ABPP, 2.14 PPG, and 1041 OPS. In Majors: 2.31 ABPP, 1.43 PPG, and 824 OPS
Ryan Braun: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.75 PPG, and 1121 OPS. In Majors: 2.01 ABPP, 1.78 PPG, and 933 OPS
Jon Jay: In College: 1.66 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 996 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, .72 PPG and 773 OPS
Gaby Sanchez: In College: 2.12 ABPP, 1.94 PPG, and 881 OPS. In Majors: 2.36 ABPP, 1.07 PPG, and 786 OPS.
Danny Valencia: In College: 2.19 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 864 OPS. In Majors: 2.77 ABPP, .97 PPG, 720 OPS
Jemile Weeks: In College: 1.76 ABPP, 2.15 PPG, and 1000 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 761 OPS.
Chris Getz: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 1.72 PPG, and 877 OPS. In Majors: 2.59 ABPP, .86 PPG, and 622 OPS.
Michael McKenry: In College: 1.85 ABPP, 1.86 PPG, and 1016 OPS. In Majors: 3.3 ABPP, .47 PPG, and 577 OPS.
Mitch Moreland: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 955 OPS. In Majors: 2.46 ABPP, 1.03 PPG, and 758 OPS.
Craig Tatum: In College: 2.4 ABPP, 1.64 PPG, and 859 OPS. In Majors: 3.06 ABPP, .46 PPG and 554 OPS
Ian Kinsler: In College: 1.98 ABPP, 1.78 PPG, and 849 OPS. In Majors: 2.12 ABPP, 1.57 PPG, and 824 OPS
Alex Gordon: In College: 1.5 ABPP, 2.4 PPG, and 1140 OPS. In Majors: 2.38 ABPP, 1.18 PPG and 777 OPS
Chris Gimenez: In College: 2 ABPP, 1.77 PPG, and 1061 OPS. In Majors: 2.92 ABPP, .53 PPG, and 551 OPS
Brett Hayes: In College 2.1 ABPP, 1.99 PPG, and 903 OPS. In Majors: 2.95 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 701 OPS.
Dustin Ackley: In College: 1.54 ABPP, 2.45 PPG, and 1137 OPS. In Majors: 2.33 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 766 OPS.
Chris Iannetta: In College: 1.9 ABPP, 1.89 PPG, and 971 OPS. In Majors: 2.23 ABPP, 1.10 PPG, and 788 OPS.
Kyle Seager: In College: 1.91 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 968 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .77 PPG, and 691 OPS.
Nick Swisher: In College: 1.57 ABPP, 2.11 PPG, and 1064 OPS. In Majors: 2.16 ABPP, 1.3 PPG, and 826 OPS.
Jason Bartlett: In College: 2.29 ABPP, 1.54 PPG, and 776 OPS. In Majors: 2.51 ABPP, 1 PPG and 710 OPS.
Greg Dobbs: In College: 1.7 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 1145 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 713 OPS
Luke Scott: In College: 1.57 ABPP, 2.22 PPG and 1095 OPS. In Majors: 2.26 ABPP, 1.1 PPG, and 843 OPS.
Chris Coghlan: In College: 1.94 ABPP, 1.9 PPG, and 899 OPS. In Majors: 2.47 ABPP, 1.12 PPG, and 764 OPS.
Alex Presley: In College: 2.17 ABPP, 1.49 PPG, and 880 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, .89 PPG, and 784 OPS.
Seth Smith: In College: 2.02 ABPP, 1.59 PPG, and 883 OPS. In Majors: 2.29 ABPP, .92 PPG and 833 OPS.
Matt Tolbert: In College: 2.26 ABPP, 1.29 PPG, and 758 OPS. In Majors: 3.01 ABPP, .61 PPG, and 607 OPS.
Darwin Barney: In College: 2.06 ABPP, 1.73 PPG, and 803 OPS. In Majors: 3.01 ABPP, .77 PPG, and 656 OPS.
Jacoby Ellsbury: In College: 1.66 ABPP, 2.16 PPG, and 985 OPS. In Majors: 2.13 ABPP, 1.58 PPG, and 807 OPS.
Eric Thames: In College: 1.78 ABPP, 2.19 PPG, and 1030 OPS. In Majors: 2.76 ABPP, 1.15 PPG, and 769 OPS
Danny Worth: In College: 2.42 ABPP, 1.39 PPG, and 803 OPS. In Majors: 3.11 ABPP, .43 PPG, and 648 OPS
Will Venable: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.96 PPG, and 906 OPS. In Majors: 2.37 ABPP, 1.08 PPG and 731 OPS
Mark Teahen: In College: 1.72 ABPP, 1.6 PPG, and 980 OPS. In Majors: 2.58 ABPP, 1 PPG, and 736 OPS
Tony Gwynn Jr. In College: 1.94 ABPP, 1.9 PPG, and 843 OPS. In Majors: 2.54 ABPP, .59 PPG, and 643 OPS
David Freese: In College: 1.71 ABPP, 2.4 PPG, and 1072 OPS. In Majors: 2.5 ABPP, 1.05 PPG, and 780 OPS.
Adam Lind: In College: 1.88 ABPP, 2.09 PPG, and 1039 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, 1.25 PPG, and 782 OPS
Steve Pearce: In College 1.82 ABPP, 2.29 PPG, and 1098 OPS. In Majors: 2.8 ABPP, .63 PPG, and 668 OPS
Landon Powell: In College: 1.9 ABPP, 1.85 PPG, and 956 OPS. In Majors: 2.95 ABPP, .8 PPG, and 612 OPS
Justin Smoak: In College: 1.62 ABPP, 2.35 PPG, and 1105 OPS. In Majors: 2.53 ABPP, .94 PPG, and 701 OPS
Chris Carter: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 1.4 PPG, and 951 OPS. In Majors: 2.84 ABPP, .47 PPG, and 689 OPS
Jason Castro: In College: 2.13 ABPP, 1.5 PPG, and 857 OPS. In Majors: 3.05 ABPP, .54 PPG, 573 OPS.
Sam Fuld: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 1.81 PPG, and 874 OPS. In Majors: 2.45 ABPP, .6 PPG, and 685 OPS
Jed Lowrie: In College: 1.77 ABPP, 1.97 PPG, and 994 OPS. In Majors: 2.58 ABPP, .97 PPG, and 732 OPS
John Mayberry: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 1.84 PPG, and 908 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .92 PPG, and 846 OPS
Carlos Quentin: In College: 1.95 ABPP, 2.08 PPG, and 1004 OPS. In Majors: 2.41 ABPP, 1.37 PPG, and 836 OPS
Chris Johnson: In College: 1.88 ABPP, 2 PPG, and 1030 OPS. In Majors: 2.91 ABPP, .9 PPG, and 725 OPS.
J.P. Arencibia: In College: 2.02 ABPP, 1.98 PPG, and 965 OPS. In Majors: 2.9 ABPP, 1.13 PPG, and 706 OPS.
Chase Headley: In College: 1.61 ABPP, 1.7 PPG, and 1024 OPS. In Majors: 2.42 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 735 OPS.
 Omar Quintanilla: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 915 OPS. In Majors: 3.39 ABPP, .45 PPG, and 552 OPS.
Drew Stubbs: In College: 1.76 ABPP, 2.2 PPG, and 923 OPS. In Majors: 2.3 ABPP, 1.35 PPG, and 731 OPS.
Cliff Pennington: In College: 1.81 ABPP, 1.87 PPG, and 899 OPS. In Majors: 2.55 ABPP, .92 PPG, and 695 OPS.
Justin Ruggiano: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.71 PPG, and 897 OPS. In Majors: 3.2 ABPP, .55 PPG, and 621 OPS.
Mitch Maier: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.54 PPG, and 1118 OPS. In Majors: 2.61 ABPP, .68 PPG, and 678 OPS.
Casper Wells: In College: 1.86 ABPP, 2.1 PPG, and 1106 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .81 PPG, and 801 OPS.
Brian Bogusevic: In College: 2.03 ABPP, 1.72 PPG, and 896 OPS. In Majors:2.53 ABPP, .51 PPG, and 767 OPS.
Daniel Delscalso: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 1.63 PPG, and 932 OPS. In Majors: 2.73 ABPP, .48 PPG, and 683 OPS
Skip Schumaker: In College: 1.8 ABPP, 1.61 PPG, and 914 OPS. In Majors: 2.57 ABPP, .75 PPG, 724 OPS.
Ryan Spilborghs: In College: 1.78 ABPP, 2.02 PPG, and 960 OPS. In Majors: 2.4 ABPP, .83 PPG, and 768 OPS
Drew Butera: In College: 2.21 ABPP, 1.39 PPG, and 800 OPS. In Majors: 4.37 ABPP, .5 PPG, and 481 OPS
Brandon Crawford: In College: 2.08 ABPP, 1.84 PPG, and 891 OPS. In Majors: 3.06 ABPP, .71 PPG, and 584 OPS
Ben Francisco: In College: 1.93 ABPP, 2.32 PPG, and 903 OPS. In Majors: 2.51 ABPP, .93 PPG, and 762 OPS.
Chase Utley: In College: 1.83 ABPP, 2.62 PPG, and 1039 OPS. In Majors: 2.12 ABPP, 1.55 PPG, and 882 OPS.
Lucus Duda: In College: 2.23 ABPP, 1.18 PPG, and 784 OPS. In Majors: 2.42 ABPP, .98 PPG, and 815 OPS.
Hunter Pence: In College: 1.92 ABPP, 1.93 PPG, and 1006 OPS. In Majors: 2.39 ABPP, 1.33 PPG, and 828 OPS
Ryan Roberts: In College: 1.56 ABPP, 2.41 PPG, and 1182 OPS. In Majors: 2.35 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 748 OPS
Scott Sizemore:  In College: 1.86 ABPP, 2.04 PPG, and 948 OPS. In Majors: 2.48 ABPP, 1 PPG, and 711 OPS.
Mark Reynolds: In College: 2.04 ABPP, 2.07 PPG, and 900 OPS. In Majors: 2.25 ABPP, 1.46 PPG, and 815 OPS.
Ryan Zimmerman: In College: 2.1 ABPP, 1.76 PPG, and 942 OPS. In Majors: 2.31 ABPP, 1.35 PPG, and 834 OPS.
Brent Lillibridge: In College: 1.72 ABPP, 2.18 PPG, and 1028 OPS. In Majors: 2.78 ABPP, .72 PPG, and 671 OPS.
Adam Rosales: In College: 1.89 ABPP, 1.75 PPG, and 875 OPS. In Majors: 2.98 ABPP, .65 PPG, and 630 OPS.
Andy Dirks: In College: 1.67 ABPP, 2.22 PPG, and 970 OPS. In Majors: 2.88 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 703 OPS.
The 117 players averaged a 1.87 ABPP, 2.01 PPG, and 982 OPS in College. In the Majors: 2.59 ABPP, .95 PPG, and 732 OPS. On average, players add .72 to their ABPP and lose -1.06 PPG and .250 from their OPS from Division 1 to the Majors. I will use this metric to grade current college players.

How much pitches per plate appearance matters

NL OBP leaders
1. Joey Votto 4.01
2. Prince Fielder 3.79
3. Lance Berkman 3.78
4. Matt Kemp 3.91
5. Ryan Braun 3.93

AL OBP Leaders
1.Miguel Cabrera 3.71
2. Jose Bautista 4.28
3. Adrian Gonzalez 3.83
4. David Ortiz 4.03
5. Alex Avila 4.03

Small sample, and it doesn't seem to be a necessity, but there is a correlation. The players that take more pitches, usually get on base more. Miguel Cabrera seems to be an aberration by being below the league average. Certainly no one is very far below the average however, and several are very far above average.

Series Review: Diamondbacks vs Brewers

If you remember, I had the Brewers winning before statistics, and then picked the Diamondbacks to win the series after the statistics. I said in the article that the numbers didn't pick a clear winner, but since the Diamondbacks had the better lineup (which sort of surprised me, and they had equal starting pitching), I leaned towards them. It seems that I should have stuck with the Brewers. This was a very close, exciting series with the exclamation mark put on by a walk-off hit in the 10th inning by Morgan in game 5. Perhaps the biggest tilt in the Brewers favor was the Gallardo/Kennedy match-up. Kennedy was a slightly better pitcher this year says the numbers, yet Gallardo outdueled him in the series (4.26 ERA for Kennedy, and 1.29 for Gallardo in the series). The Brewers had the better bullpen, and it showed. For the Diamondbacks, Putz was pretty mediocre and gave up the series winning hit, Ziegler was awful, Hernandez was alright, while Shaw was really good. For the Brewers, everyone was pretty much lights out, even Axford was good overall. When looking at the lineups, the first thing you notice is that Ryan Braun hit out of his mind (4 doubles, with OBP of over .500) He even out performed his awesome statistics. Fielder had a key homer in game 1, and walked a few times. Surprises were Betancourt and Hairston, with low statistical ratings but huge series's. This more than made up for Rickie Weeks' lackluster series. Arizona's lineup didn't do too bad, other than Parra was pretty miserable (even with a good performance in game 5).The Brewers had better pitching overall, in both starters and bullpen. That is why they won the series.

Pre-Statistics picks: 3-0
Statistic picks: 0-3
Teams with bigger payroll: 2-1