Hitting Outside Pitches and 2007 Top Hitting Prospects

In a previous post, I looked at how some elite hitters were pitched when they first came up to the big leagues. I found that they were pitched low and away with heavy frequency. In this post, I will look at the 1st real season frequency of hitters in the Majors, and compare it to their TAV zones and their career frequency zones. In this post, all data is right-handed hitter normalized, all using Brooks Baseball's heat maps again. I want to test the thesis that hitters are pitched low and away more than average when they first come up, and then add another thesis. The secondary thesis is that one of the key differences between hitters that prove to be successful versus some that aren't is the ability to handle the low and away pitch in strike zone.

Here I think is a good example of a successful hitter showing that the thesis is correct as the hitter showed that they can hit the pitch on the outside part of the strike zone and low. Pitchers then have to go inside, or at least quit throwing in these zones as much, in the future. Here is Justin Upton's 2008 map, where we see that pitchers threw a lot of pitches on the mid outside part of the plate, and off the plate in general:

Now, let's fast foward to now, looking back at his career so far, in which he has accumulated 66 runs more than an average player (according to BR's RBAT):

Notice that Upton is a good hitter no matter where in the zone, but that he is actually better (when compared to other right-handed hitters) on low and outside pitches than inside pitches. Thus, Upton's frequency map now looks like this:

Pitchers mainly try to throw it to him low and away, but outside of the zone, as he gets about an average amount of pitches low and away in the strike zone. I think this argument gets stronger when we look at Andy Laroche. Laroche was a big bust, worth -45 runs with the bat in his career. Because the sample sizes for 2007 and 2008 are small in themselves, I included maps from both of those years below:

Up and Away was also a spot pitchers tried to challenge Laroche, but low and away was common as well. Laroche proved to be okay in his career on up and away balls, but low and away was his worst zone:

Therefore, pitchers continued to exploit the hole:

So in the rest of the post, I will look at the rest of the right-handed hitters on the top 100 prospects in 2007 according to Baseball America (I didn't include Brian Barton because he had just one real year in the Majors) and see if my thesis holds weight on a larger scale. To cut down on the amount of maps and amount of words you have to view (and I have to insert), I am only going to look at two zones for each hitter, the low and away part of the zone and away middle part of the zone, that is, the one in the strike zone that is on the bottom right and the one just above that, and I'll just use a numbers format.

Delmon Young: -15 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 67.94, 79.25

Career TAV: 115, 108

Career Frequency: 99.22, 104.76

Support Thesis: No

Evan Longoria: 128 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 106.94, 117.01

Career TAV: 119, 117

Career Frequency: 104.08, 101.05

Support Thesis: Yes

Brandon Wood: -55 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 98.23, 97.43

Career TAV: 53, 68

Career Frequency: 103.02, 96.39

Support Thesis: Mostly

Cameron Maybin: -23 rBAT

2009 Frequency: 98.93, 115.73

Career TAV: 95, 93

Career Frequency: 91.95, 102.86

Support Thesis: No

Chris Young: -33 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 122.36, 90.67

Career TAV: 103, 92

Career Frequency: 111.91, 103.95

Support Thesis: Not Really

Andrew McCutchen: 109 rBAT

2009 Frequency: 111.86, 96.08

Career TAV: 100, 100

Career Frequency: 104.52, 104.44

Support Thesis: Not Really

Troy Tulowitzski: 80 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 126.56, 76.5

Career TAV: 122, 119

Career Frequency: 100.99, 99.13

Support Thesis: Not Really

Billy Butler: 99 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 116.36, 86.92

Career TAV: 116, 98

Career Frequency: 89.25, 92.28

Support Thesis: Yes

Ryan Braun: 245 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 69.04, 101.08

Career TAV: 135, 132

Career Frequency: 88.06, 98.12

Support Thesis: No

Jose Tabata: -8 rBAT

2010 Frequency: 106.43, 94.97

Career TAV: 110, 93

Career Frequency: 99.08, 85.23

Support Thesis: No, in the sense that he isn't a good hitter. He did improve in that space and get pitched less there.

Adam Jones: 34 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 87.49, 85.68

Career TAV: 120, 103

Career Frequency: 95.51, 97.9

Support Thesis: Strangely, even though he proved to be really good in those zones (and a good hitter), he gets pitched there more now.

Hunter Pence: 92 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 103.08, 69.36

Career TAV: 113, 127

Career Frequency: 92.79, 109.99

Support Thesis: Same as Jones

Josh Fields: -17 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 77.45, 76.43

Career TAV: 106, 83

Career Frequency: 86.12, 91.29

Support Thesis: Not Really, he was never especially good there, but pitchers threw in on him his whole career.

Carlos Gomez: -46 rBAT

2008 Frequency:  102.77, 109.62

Career TAV: 94, 126

Career Frequency: 98.49, 110.56

Support Thesis:  Not really, despite showing he can hit there (and not being successful overall), he has continued to be pitched there.

Elvis Andrus: -45 rBAT

2009 Frequency: 89.62, 90.11

Career TAV: 81, 84

Career Frequency: 92.01, 93.75

Support Thesis: No, he struggles there, but isn't pitched there a lot.

Elijah Dukes: 7 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 107.23, 75.04

Career TAV: 139, 84

Career Frequency: 97.46, 105.99

Support Thesis: Mixed really.

Drew Stubbs: -30 rBAT

2010 Frequency: 83.32, 123.62

Career TAV: 114, 77

Career Frequency: 91.77, 115.26

Support Thesis: Sort of, though it is not definite.

Kurt Suzuki: -45 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 111.75, 84.11

Career TAV: 94, 91

Career Frequency: 101.22, 97.84

Support Thesis: Again, sort of.

Chris Iannetta: 2 rBAT

2007 Frequency: 142.65, 68.64

Career TAV: 108, 74

Career Frequency: 106.21, 97.6

Support Thesis: Same, sort of.

Brent Lillibridge: -35 rBAT

2008 Frequency: 117.38, 124.19

Career TAV: 68, 80

Career Frequency: 112.22, 100.62

Support Thesis: No. Even though he proved to be bad, and terrible in the zones, he was actually pitched less in the zones for his career.

So when the twenty hitters profiled, when they first came up, they had an average normalized frequency in the specified zones of 102.37 and 93.12. So they don't actually seem to be pitched low and away more than an average right-handed hitter when they first came up. For their careers, they have a 103.66 and 100.45 normalized frequency, meaning that on average, they were pitched more in that zone after their first year in the Major. If we break it down by successful and unsuccessful hitters (above average being successful), the unsuccessful hitters have a 98.92 and 100.23 frequency in those zones, while the successful hitters had a 97.65 and 100.72, no real difference between the two.

It would seem that my thesis is incorrect, or at least too simplistic. There doesn't seem to be any relationship between success and frequency in the low and away strike zone.

Keon Broxton Scouting Report

Keon Broxton got a very late season call-up from class A+ to AAA to play in the play-offs and had a good game in the AAA championship game. He was the Diamondbacks 3rd round pick in 2009 (the same round as Kyle Seager, Wil Myers, and Joe Kelly) out of community college after being a 29th round pick by the Phillies the year before.

Broxton looks like a good athlete. When he was drafted, all the reports were that he was very raw but talented. I could see a solid defender at the corner and the scouting reports I've seen say he should stick in centerfield. He is certainly fast, as I timed him at 4.04 to first base (slightly faster than Lorenzo Cain and slightly slower than Cameron Maybin). Reports on his arm are also really good. So the tools are definitely there.


Offensively, he has a quick bat but sort of cheats on pitches outside. He starts with open stance to see the ball better but closes it by the time the pitch gets there (but it could be why he cheats on pitches outside). He has power and appeared to have an advanced eye for just jumping up to AAA (Nelson Figueroa couldn't trick him, for whatever that is worth. Figueroa was sitting in the high 80s with his fastball but threw a lot of breaking balls. These are the kind of hitters that give talented raw prospects some problems).


Despite the talent, Broxton has not actually hasn't hit that well in the minors. After posting a 94 wOBA+ 83 OPS + in High A last year, he repeated the level this year and hasn't been much better this year with a 99 wOBA + and 98 OPS + (meaning he was very slightly below average). He struck out a lot this year, and actually saw his walk rate (and OBP) go down. He hit for more power though, improving his ISO by .060 despite hitting more grounders.

He looks like a really good talent, and he is just 22 years old, but the hitting statistics are somewhat concerning. I think he has the tools to turn it around and produce at the plate. If he doesn't, he could still be a 5th outfielder type with the talent he has both defensively and as a baserunner.

Times to First: Part 6

1. Tony Abreu (Royals): 4.27

2. Jeff Keppinger (Rays): 4.23

3. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) 4.49

4. Chris Stewart (Yankees): 4.21

5. Matt Joyce (Rays): 4.28

6. Chris Dickerson (Yankees): 4.07

7. Jose Tabata (Pirates): 4.25

8. Carlos Quentin (Padres): 4.64

9. Shane Victorino (Dodgers): 4.27 (3.93 on a bunt)

10. Cameron Maybin (Padres): 4.02

11. Matt Kemp (Dodgers): 4.24

12. Jose Iglesias (Red Sox): 4.09

13. A.J. Ellis (Dodgers): 4.57

14. Mark Kotsay (Padres): 4.40

15. Josh Willingham (Twins): 4.32

16. Evereth Cabrera (Padres): 3.80 (on a bunt)

17. Jay Bruce (Reds): 4.43

18. Desmond Jennings (Rays): 3.80 (on a bunt)

19. Luke Scott (Rays): 4.38

20. Elliot Johnson (Rays): 3.78 (on a bunt)

A bright spot in the dark White season

It has been a really frustrating season for the White Sox. They have the 5th highest payroll in baseball at about a 130 million dollar payroll (at 76 wins, $1,710,526 a win, and a WASP of 5000). Big money failures like Adam Dunn (who is putting up a historically bad season) and Alexis Rios have fueled the failure. However, as in most cases, there are some shining lights. Recently, the biggest has been Alejandro De Aza. At the end of the 09 season, the White Sox claimed De Aza off waivers from the Marlins. His salary for this year has not been released (and it was 390,000 in 09) and he is arbitration eligible at the end of the year, so it is safe to say he is making about $400,000 this year. Despite being called up late and only playing in 47 games, he has been very valuable, with a 1.9 WAR and playing every outfield position. This gives him a great WASP of 210.5. His OOP is a nice 419 (not too far behind Cameron Maybin), and a PPG of 1.34 (better than both Cameron Maybin and Starlin Castro). He is another guy who strikes out a lot (about 1/5th of his at-bats, he also walks 8% of the time, a 2 strikeouts to 1 walk ratio is a nice ratio), but is still pretty productive, because when he hits the ball, magic happens (a .400 Batting average on balls put in play). It is very possible that the White Sox will use De Aza to replace Juan Pierre or Alexis Rios as they attempt to rebuild this team.

The Awesomeness of Andrew McCutchen

Last night (Wednesday Sept. 7) the pitcher J.A. Happ and catcher Humberto Quintero of the Astros met at the mound for a lengthy conversation on the mound to discuss how to pitch to CF Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates. McCutchen represented the tying man, and put the very first pitch he saw in the stands (his second homer of the day). The Pirates went on to win the game. Even though the Pirates have faded drastically in the second half, the value of McCutchen to this team cannot be overstated. With a little less than a month to play, he has hit 22 homers, 85 rbis, (the average is low at .269, but the OBP is very respectable at .372), and 20 stolen bases. His WAR (wins above replacement player, measures how many more or less games a team would win with an "average" bubble player playing instead of the player in question) is 5.4, most on offense, but his defense has certainly improved. For comparison, last year's AL MVP Josh Hamilton's war was 7.2 (this year it is only 2.9). McCutchen was selected 11th (in the first round) in the 2005 draft, 1 behind Cameron Maybin (now playing for the Padres but selected by the Tigers). Maybin played just 24 games for the team who drafted him, and hit .143. In his career, all added up, his WAR is just 5, which is less than McCutchen's total just this year (Maybin is having his best year though, with a WAR of 3).