Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Keon Broxton Scouting Report

Keon Broxton got a very late season call-up from class A+ to AAA to play in the play-offs and had a good game in the AAA championship game. He was the Diamondbacks 3rd round pick in 2009 (the same round as Kyle Seager, Wil Myers, and Joe Kelly) out of community college after being a 29th round pick by the Phillies the year before.

Broxton looks like a good athlete. When he was drafted, all the reports were that he was very raw but talented. I could see a solid defender at the corner and the scouting reports I've seen say he should stick in centerfield. He is certainly fast, as I timed him at 4.04 to first base (slightly faster than Lorenzo Cain and slightly slower than Cameron Maybin). Reports on his arm are also really good. So the tools are definitely there.

Offensively, he has a quick bat but sort of cheats on pitches outside. He starts with open stance to see the ball better but closes it by the time the pitch gets there (but it could be why he cheats on pitches outside). He has power and appeared to have an advanced eye for just jumping up to AAA (Nelson Figueroa couldn't trick him, for whatever that is worth. Figueroa was sitting in the high 80s with his fastball but threw a lot of breaking balls. These are the kind of hitters that give talented raw prospects some problems).

Despite the talent, Broxton has not actually hasn't hit that well in the minors. After posting a 94 wOBA+ 83 OPS + in High A last year, he repeated the level this year and hasn't been much better this year with a 99 wOBA + and 98 OPS + (meaning he was very slightly below average). He struck out a lot this year, and actually saw his walk rate (and OBP) go down. He hit for more power though, improving his ISO by .060 despite hitting more grounders.

He looks like a really good talent, and he is just 22 years old, but the hitting statistics are somewhat concerning. I think he has the tools to turn it around and produce at the plate. If he doesn't, he could still be a 5th outfielder type with the talent he has both defensively and as a baserunner.

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