Nationals sign Tyler Herron: Scouting Report

The Washington Nationals have signed Tyler Herron according to Baseball America. Herron, 26 years old, was a 1st round (46th overall) pick by Cardinals in 2005. He was released after reaching AA in 2009 and pitched a little for the Pirates in AA. Herron spent 2010 in the Frontier League, pitching mostly as a reliever in 36 innings with a 3.73 FIP (in a league with a 3.92 FIP and 4.84 ERA. I'm guessing defense was the reason for the big difference. Whether it was because of park, bad defense, or just poor pitching, Herron's team had a league worst 6.42 ERA, so all things considered, including small sample size, Herron was very solid), but didn't pitch at all in 2011, then spent all of 2012 with Fargo-Moorhead of the American Associaton. Herron was mainly a starter (but also made 6 relief appearances), throwing 123 innings with a 3.07 FIP. League average ERA was 4.62, with 5.31 runs per game, and 3.93 FIP. The team was the best offensively and in pitching, so it is really hard to say anything about their park factors.

He is currently pitching in the Puerto Rican Winter League. As far as I know, they don't have any streams or anyway to watch the games, but FanGraphs' "Scout" has him rated as the 10th best pitcher in the league (I will be honest, while the data that goes into "Scout" is pretty straight forward, I simply don't know how predictive it is, especially with Winter League statistics. If anyone knows of a good evaluation of it, send it to me or leave it in the comments). In Puerto Rico, he has a 1.38 GO/AO in 6 starts, with a 2.84 FIP in 6 starts. That FIP, if it was his ERA, would be the 5th best in the league, but the crowd above him is mixed. One is a guy who has been out of affiliated baseball since 2010, a guy who has been out of affiliated ball since 2008, a Mexican Leaguer, and
Hector Santiago, who had success out of the White Sox bullpen in 2012. Especially considering the sample size, it is hard to put much stock in these numbers.

Since all Winnipeg Goldeyes (an American Association team) games (or at least home games) are available on YouTube, that is where I am getting the empirical observations from.

He is still listed at 6-3 190, but it seems that he is heavier than that now. Reportedly, Herron still has a fastball of 89-93 MPH, along with a change-up and a soft curveball doesn't have exceptional loop or break. It registered as low as 66-70 MPH on the radar gun, but didn't have the dramatic loop you see in most slow curves. Nothing he throws is straight, as his fastball has some pretty dramatic arm-side tail (though occasionally it would cut inside to left-handed hitters). When I saw him, he was mainly 87-89 MPH according to the broadcast radar gun, and was very fastball heavy. He didn't seem to have the best command either. The changeup didn't provide much speed differential, as it sat between 82-85 MPH (and it seemed he threw it more against righties than lefties for some reason, perhaps because of the cutter). It doesn't move a lot and his command of it was iffy at best.

Obviously this latter empirical data doesn't suggest a big league pitcher, and the statistics in the American Association and winter ball are not concrete enough to overrule the lack of stuff. At his age, the Nationals could use him as an old AA pitcher, or more likely, give him a shot in AAA. It is just really hard to see him ever making a MLB impact, as he doesn't have the breaking pitches or deception to live with a below average fastball. I believe he will go where his fastball takes him.

MLB Draft Talk: High Schoolers or College Players?

College and High School baseball is about to start. So even though we are several months away from the baseball draft, teams are already sending out scouts across the nation to look at prospects. So yeah, its time to start thinking about the draft. Here, I wanted to see which players are usually better choices, high school players or college players.
Since 1965:
1st overall picks (rated according to WAR):
The top 6 Players are out of high school. Only 3 out of top 10 were out of college. 19.5 WAR was "average" for each player selected first overall. Excluding 2008, 2010-2011, the 3 players drafted first overall that did not make the majors were all out of high school. Out of the 8 with negative WAR, 4 were out of college, 4 were out of high school. Out of the 27 (that's excluding the 2008, and 2010-2011 picks) "under-average" 1st overall picks, 14 were out of high school, so about split.

2nd overall
4 out of the best 5 went to college. Excluding the 2010-2011 picks, 13 players either had negative WARs or didn't play in the Majors. 8 of them were drafted straight out of high school. The 2nd overall pick averaged just 12.4 WAR. That is a big drop off from the 1st overall pick, so in 2012 there will be a big expected difference from the player the Astros get opposed to the one the Twins get at number 2 overall.

In the first round of the "Moneyball" draft of 2002, the top 4 players all came out of high school. Only 3 of the top 10 came out of college, and 2 of them were drafted by the Athletics. Only 5 out of the 14 that never made the MLB were drafted straight out of high school. Every single player, except 1, that reached the Majors and had a 0 or negative WAR was out of college. In the 2003 draft, 3 of the top 5 were out of college, while 11 of the 18 players that didn't make the Majors or had negative WARs were out of high school. However, in 2004-2006, 4 of the top 5 were college players each year.

When we look at all the pitchers drafted in the first round since '65, 51% of high school pitchers made the Majors. Those players averaged a 5.9 WAR. When you add Junior College players into this list, the same amount make the Majors, but the average WAR goes up to 6.1. When College players are added, we go up to 58% of players making the Majors. However, the average WAR for those players is 5.8. In round 2, 42% of all draftees make the Majors, and those average a 5.2 WAR. High schoolers in the 2nd round made the Majors 36% of the time, but had an average WAR of 6. Junior College players reached the Majors just 28% of the time and those players had a WAR of just 4.6 on average. So it seems that high school players have much higher ceilings, while college players are less risky, but provide less reward (and Junior College players are hit and miss).

The Awesomeness of Andrew McCutchen

Last night (Wednesday Sept. 7) the pitcher J.A. Happ and catcher Humberto Quintero of the Astros met at the mound for a lengthy conversation on the mound to discuss how to pitch to CF Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates. McCutchen represented the tying man, and put the very first pitch he saw in the stands (his second homer of the day). The Pirates went on to win the game. Even though the Pirates have faded drastically in the second half, the value of McCutchen to this team cannot be overstated. With a little less than a month to play, he has hit 22 homers, 85 rbis, (the average is low at .269, but the OBP is very respectable at .372), and 20 stolen bases. His WAR (wins above replacement player, measures how many more or less games a team would win with an "average" bubble player playing instead of the player in question) is 5.4, most on offense, but his defense has certainly improved. For comparison, last year's AL MVP Josh Hamilton's war was 7.2 (this year it is only 2.9). McCutchen was selected 11th (in the first round) in the 2005 draft, 1 behind Cameron Maybin (now playing for the Padres but selected by the Tigers). Maybin played just 24 games for the team who drafted him, and hit .143. In his career, all added up, his WAR is just 5, which is less than McCutchen's total just this year (Maybin is having his best year though, with a WAR of 3).