World Series Preview: Rangers and Cardinals

So its time for the World Series. Here is the statistical preview:

The Rangers are going to look like this in the starting rotation: Wilson (.148 WAR per start, -1.87 PE), Lewis (.061 WAR per start, .51 PE), Harrison (.13 WAR per Start, 1.17 PE), Holland (.55 PE, .081 WAR per Start),  as starting pitchers. Their  bullpen looks like this Ogando (3.4 WAR, .3 PE), Feliz (-1.8 PE, .8 WAR), Gonzalez (-.55 PE, .2 WAR) , Adams (-5.24 PE, 1.7 WAR), Uejara (1.2 WAR, -7.09 PE), Oliver (-2.01 PE, 1.2 WAR), Lowe (.3 WAR and -.56 PE) and Feldman (.98 PE, .2 WAR). Their lineup will probably look like (in no particular order): Hamilton (.03 WAR per game, 1.723 PPG, 2.42 PAPP), Cruz (.011 WAR per Game, 1.52 PPG, 2.74 PAPP), Murphy (2.74 PAPP, .966 PPG, Negative WAR), Napoli (2.13 PAPP, .045 WAR per game, 1.504 PPG), Kinsler (2.39 PAPP, 1.67 PPG, .035 WAR per Game), Andrus (.024 WAR per game, 1.32 PPG, 2.68 PAPP) Beltre (1.76 PPG, .043 WAR per game, 2.63 PAPP), Young (.015 WAR per game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.33 PPG), and with the DH Torreabla (.006 WAR per game, .75 PPG, 3.14 PAPP).

 For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Jackson (1.38 PE, .067 WAR).  Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), , Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game), and when DH Craig (2.33 PAPP, 1.19 PPG, and .039 WAR per game).

As far as starting pitching goes, The Rangers have advantage in game 1 (and in turn, gave 5), and in games 2 and 6 it is a split as Lewis has a better PE, while Lohse has a better WAR. Basically the same happens in game 3 and 7 between Harrison and Garcia. In game 4, Holland is better than Edwin Jackson, so the Rangers have the clear advantage in starting pitching. The Rangers bullpen has a much better WAR, and a much better than PE. It is not even close, the Rangers have the better bullpen. With or without the DH, the Cardinals have the better lineup according to WAR, but the Rangers have the better Production Per Game (with or without the DH). The Cardinals also have the higher Plate Appearances per Positive Play, which is bad, you want the lower number. Something similar happened in the Tampa Bay and Ranger series, as the Rangers were better at PPG and PAPP but worse at WAR. This is most likely because of defense. So the Rangers have the better offense and pitching. The Cardinals are only better at defense. So the statistics show a clear advantage for the Rangers in this series.

How much pitches per plate appearance matters

NL OBP leaders
1. Joey Votto 4.01
2. Prince Fielder 3.79
3. Lance Berkman 3.78
4. Matt Kemp 3.91
5. Ryan Braun 3.93

AL OBP Leaders
1.Miguel Cabrera 3.71
2. Jose Bautista 4.28
3. Adrian Gonzalez 3.83
4. David Ortiz 4.03
5. Alex Avila 4.03

Small sample, and it doesn't seem to be a necessity, but there is a correlation. The players that take more pitches, usually get on base more. Miguel Cabrera seems to be an aberration by being below the league average. Certainly no one is very far below the average however, and several are very far above average.

The new Berkman contract

The Cardinals have announced that they are giving Lance Berkman a contract for next year worth 12 million dollars. At a 8 million dollar salary this season, Berkman has a 1633 WASP. If he can put together another 4.9 WAR season next year, he will still be a 2449 WASP, still a very solid number. However, in 2010, when he battled injuries, with both the Yankees and Astros put up only a 1.2 WAR. The big question is whether last year was the outlier or this year is the outlier. Or, are they both outliers and the real result is somewhere in the middle? For his career, this year is actually pretty normal, and maybe a little under average. He has had 4 seasons of above 6 WAR, in 2008 he had a OOP of 663 and a PPG of 1.68 (compared to an OOP of 565 and a PPG 1.51 this year). He is walking at the same ratio he did last year (at about 16%), and striking out at a slightly smaller ratio. He clearly wasn't as strong last year as he is this year (he had a .166 Isolated Slugging last year, and a .255 ISOS this year).  The main issue seems to be health, and thats nearly impossible to predict injuries other than looking at the track record. Other than last year, he has been pretty healthy throughout his career. Astros' TV color guy Jim Deshaies said something I hadn't thought of, this is their insurance policy at first base in case they don't resign Albert Pujols (which I have argued the Cardinals should not resign). This deal makes sense for where the Cardinals are at right now, but it could really blow up in their face.

Why Didn't the Astros move these guys?

The pitiful Astros have been involved in 4 major trades (and another substantial  one in trading Jeff Keppinger to the Giants this year) in the past 2 seasons, all at the deadline. Last year, they dumped both Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman for prospects, rather obvious moves. This year they traded Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, both rather young players, for lots of good prospects. However, I was really surprised they didn't make more moves. I am thinking of 3 guys in particular. Firstly Wandy Rodriquez is making 7 million dollars this season and will make 10 million next year. He has a WAR of 2.1, giving him a WASP (this season) of around 3300 (making him over the Halladay Standard. He is also 32 years old. There are/were teams in the hunt that needed starting pitching (there were rumors about Wandy going to the Yankees, but it never materialized). There is really no excuse for the Astros not moving him for prospects. Similarly, Outfielder/First baseman Carlos Lee should have been moved, and was not. He is in the middle of an absurd 100 million dollar contract, and is making 18.5 million dollars. Even with his 4.4 WAR, he still has a WASP of 4204. His 475 OOP (39 SOOP) and 1.14 PPG (16228 PPGS) are hardly worth the big salary (if you are unsure what any of these statistics mean, check the pages above) and he is 35. Surely someone could have used this guy and would have given up a couple of prospects and freed up money for the 'Stros. Starting pitcher Brett Myers is the third guy on this list. He is 31, has a WAR of just .6, and a salary of $ 7 million (10 million dollars next year). Holding anybody with a 11666 WASP when you are a rebuilding team is inexcusable. The Astros' management sure have provided some head scratchers.