Mike Leake Scouting Report

With reports of the Reds re-signing Jonathan Broxton, reporter John Fay believes that it will be easy for the Reds to move Mike Leake, as this most likely signals that Aroldis Chapman is finally moving to the rotation. Fay believes that Leake still has decent trade value despite having a rough season.

When you actually look at Mike Leake's advanced metrics, he was really no different in 2012:

2010: 115 FIP -, 104 xFIP -, 4.33 SIERA

2011: 108 FIP -, 95 xFIP, 3.76 SIERA

2012: 111 FIP -, 98 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA

Along with his career ERA - of 106, it appears that Leake is a slightly below average starter. It does seem, if his xFIP and SIERA are any indications, that he has some pretty major home run issues and would benefit from a more pitcher friendly park. The Reds' park has a 107 park factor over the last 3 years, and Leake has a career 1.26 HR/9IP and 14.6 HR/FB %, certainly supporting that point. Since the HR/FB % spiked in 2012, it made his ERA worse and got him left off of the playoff roster. When Johnny Cueto injured himself in the first start of the post-season, Leake was added to the roster and started game 4. At the Great American Ballpark against the Giants, the start didn't go well, as Leake gave up a homer on the 2nd pitch of the game and gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings, striking out just one and walking 2 (2 homers in all).

Leake was drafted 10th overall by the Reds in 2009 out of Arizona State as an advanced pitcher that didn't have a high ceiling, but didn't need to pitch in the minors either (making his MLB debut before his MiLB debut, and pitching in just 2 MiLB games so far). The 25 year old right-hander's stuff is certainly below average, with an average fastball under 90 MPH, using more cutters and sinkers than 4-seam fastballs. It seems that he is relying less and less on his slider that averages a little more than 81 MPH (dropping from nearly 18% usage to 8-9% usage in 2012), along with a change and a (not slow) curve. In going back and reading old scouting reports, it seems that it was unclear as to what was his best pitch. His sinker is really similar in velocity to pitchers like David Pauley, Wandy Rodriguez, and Ian Kennedy. The horizontal movement on it is similar to those like Cliff Lee, Jarrod Washburn, and Ryan Vogelsong. Vertically, his sinker breaks a lot like the sinkers of Roy Halladay and Jerome Williams. His cutter breaks horizontally like former teammate's Travis Wood and the Houston Astros' Lucas Harrell. Vertically, it is like Matt Harrison's and Chris Carpenter's. These are some pretty good names. The curve breaks like the curves of Stephen Strasburg and A.J. Griffin (two curves I like) horizontally, and Anibal Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy, and Paul Maholm vertically. The slider's horizontal movement is similar to Zach Greinke and Jake Arrieta and vertically like Ricky Nolasco, Brandon Beachy, and Johnny Cueto. His change is also similar to Beachy horizontally, as well as Gil Meche and John Danks. Vertically, it is like Barry Zito's and Roy Oswalt's.

Just from times I have seen him, it seems that his sinker occasionally drifts up and that is why he gives up so many homers. The lack of stuff makes the occasional mistake more costly. When he throws it down and away at the bottom of the strikezone against righties, it is a really nice pitch. However, when it gets up, it is straight and pretty hittable. Because of his stuff and lack of a real 4-seamer, he really can't live high in the zone, though he sometimes does (ineffectively), which limits his ability to move the hitters eyes and makes him less dangerous when it comes to missing bats (which is one of the reasons that his strikeout totals are so low). The closest he comes to throwing a pitch high is when he throws his cutter (to right-handed hitters especially) in the somewhat middle of the plate (height-wise, it usually stays off the plate, and even though the velocity is usually a little lower, it seems like a less hittable pitch). It seems that he would rather go away from both lefties and righties, not wanting to go inside.
The slider is somewhat of a frisbee slider, almost knuckling with some pretty soft (but dramatic and sweeping) break to the left-handed batters box (it is so soft that Pitch F/X often confuses it for the curves when it dips to 80 MPH or lower). His curveball is a pretty hard curveball that drops quickly without big loop.

There is a little evidence from his overall release point chart that he has raised his release point slightly since coming into the Majors, but from looking at a bunch of individual game date, it seems he has actually just been more consistent (something you would expect to see as a pitcher matures and develops. An alternative explanation would be, something I saw in at least one report, that he used to occasionally drop his arm angle, whether unintentional or intentional. He could simply no longer be doing this, which would make the release point data pretty noisy). Because he is "just" 6 foot tall, he doesn't quite get the downward plane that most pitchers do (although he releases the ball higher than Johnny Cueto) because he lets go of the ball below 6 feet high.

Known for his pitchability, Leake doesn't discriminate when it comes to who he throws his cutter to, and still throws his change to righties about 6% of the time (just short of half the time he throws it to lefties). If he has a pitch he really likes to go to for a strikeout, it is the slider against both lefties and righties. Interestingly, he throws the curve more against lefties than he does against righties. It is the only pitch that he throws for strikes less than 60 % of the time, with the cutter being the pitch he throws for strikes the most (perhaps the reason that there isn't much variation when he throws it, throwing it somewhere around 20-24% of the time regardless of the situation). The slider, which makes sense considering that he throws it so much two strikes, is the only pitch he gets many whiffs with. He gives up more contact than league average and gets far less swings and misses than average. So his game has to be weak pop-ups (it isn't) or ground-balls (48.9 GB % in his career, very solid). This is why he throws so many sinkers and cutters (his slider also gets a lot of ground-balls). These pitches have also helped him have basically no platoon splits, about equally effective against both lefties and righties.

So far, Leake has not reached 200 innings in a season, setting a career high in 2012 with a 179. To be a valuable mid-rotation starter, one needs to be a good innings eater, something Leake has not been so far. He was put on the DL in 2010 thanks to shoulder fatigue, but I am not convinced that is something to be concerned about. It also doesn't look he wears down a the end of the year, at least as far as effectiveness goes. At his age, I think his new team has to let him really eat up innings in 2013. As mentioned above, the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark has really hurt Leake, as he has an ERA of almost a full run higher at home in his career. One of the less friendly home run parks would make Leake a significantly better pitcher. Especially if the team has a good infield (which would seem to be what he had with the Reds) that would turn a lot of Leake's ground-balls into outs. I think he can be a guy in the middle of the rotation and pitch at a league average rate with a new team. He is first year arbitration eligible this off-season, and according to MLB Trade Rumors, he is projected to make 2.9 million for 2013 (not to mention two more years of control after that). That is a bargain for a middle of the rotation pitcher, especially considering what Scott Feldman got (6 million), an injured Scott Baker (5.5 million) got, and especially what Jeremy Guthrie got (3 guaranteed years for 20 million. This doesn't mention that Bartolo Colon got 3 million and he is coming off a suspension and is 39). I think Leake has quite a bit of trade value (even if he is a slightly below average pitcher because of his lack of stuff) and the Reds should get a good package for him.

Arismendy Alcantara Scouting Report

Arismendy Alcantara is a small middle infielder (listed at 5-10 160) that was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Chicago Cubs in 2010. 

He has been used almost exclusively as a pinch runner/pinch fielder in the Dominican Winter League, but did get an at-bat on Wednesday night (in which he grounded out to end an extra inning game). Even with the platoon advantage (he is a switch hitter who was hitting right-handed against a left-handed pitcher), he didn't seem to have very good plate discipline and he sometimes come out of his swing.

He is not a player that ever really appears in Cubs' prospect lists but he played in A + as a 21 year old (actually he was 20 for the whole actual season). The average age in the Florida State League was 22.7 years old. Despite this, he had a good year with the bat, with a 110 wOBA + and 124 OPS +. This was good for 30th in the league in wOBA (out of hitters with at least 300 plate appearances). More impressively, Alcantara was younger than 26 of the 29 above him. The Cubs Florida State League affiliate Daytona played basically neutral in 2012 (99 one year Park Factor), but he was much more effective at home than he was on the road (the ISO was basically the same, the difference was mainly BABIP). His switch hitting is paying off as well, as he was equally effective from both sides according to OPS in 2012, with better peripherals as a right-hander and more power as a left-hander. He seems to be an average/BABIP dependent hitter, as he doesn't walk much (doesn't have a big strikeout rate, but it is too high for his walk rate) and doesn't hit for much power. He is a ground-ball hitter, though his ground-ball rate did drop in 2012. At the plate, it seems like he has some work to do mechanically. Despite taking no real stride, he loads up with a front leg kick. This isn't the best way to start and he doesn't have a swing that would make any opposing player jealous. I actually saw some video of him before 2012, and it seems that he did not have this load. Perhaps it is ironic that he had a better season with it, or perhaps it is a timing mechanism that works for him. 

After stealing just 8 bases and being caught 8 times in 2011, Alcantara was much more efficient in 2012, stealing 25 bases and was caught just 4 bases. Part of the struggles in 2011 may have to do with leg injuries, as he has had DL stints in each of the past 2 years. However, one would not have expected him to have had the success on the bases he had in 2012 if they were bothering him. Overall, you are seeing improvements in his overall game, as his ISO, Stolen Base success, and Speed Score have all went up over his 3 years (without repeating levels), and he has been dropping his strikeout rate as well (I am not counting 2009, as he spent the year in the Dominican Summer League, which is somewhat of a different animal statistically). His speed score was 8.1 in 2012, which was 2nd to only teammate Matt Szczur in the Florida State League (it was also in the top 40 in the minor leagues as a whole, tied with Brett Jackson and Jimmy Paredes). Basically, he is fast, and a good baserunner as well (Baseball Prospectus gives him a positive baserunner and the Baseball Cube gives him a 85 out of 100 on speed).

Both the data (RTZ, FRAA, and Range Factor) and the scouting reports say he needs to work on his defense. However, he played almost exclusively shortstop in 2012 (after splitting time better short/2B/3B in previous seasons). While athleticism obviously does not always translate to good defense, both his age and speed at least give you a reason to think that he will improve.

Whether or not his defense develops determines whether or not he is a MLB player for me. If he becomes at least a decent to average defender, he could be a slap hitting utility infielder that you could use late in games on the bases. Because his plate discipline needs so much work, I have to imagine that he is going to find AA in 2013 pretty tough. 

Soft Tossing Lefties Scouting Reports: Bywater and Locke

Matt Bywater made his AA debut on Monday, pitching against the Harrisburg Senators. He was the Orioles 7th round pick in 2010 out of Pepperdine University. The lefty has a a sidearmed delivery, so I don't see how he is a starter. I hate to stereotype someone as soon as they throw their first pitch, but I can't really think of any sidearmed starters in the Majors (Bruce Chen probably counts, perhaps Paul Maholm as well, although his platoon splits have always been terrible). His career splits have been about what you would expect. He is pretty dominant against lefties (2.46 FIP, 2.51 SIERA), but mediocre to bad against righties (4.58 FIP, 4.32 SIERA). He threw a lots of changeups. They had decent downward movement and dip (it was a pitch he was more concerned about locating low the zone than throwing them in the dirt). He was missing a lot to his arm side.
It also looks like he has a low moving fastball. The pitch was hit pretty hard by righties, but could be a ground-ball pitch against lefties. He got some weak ground-ball swings from lefties. He has been a good ground-ball pitcher in the minors, with a ground-ball rate of 52.1% over the last two years. While I don't think he is a pitcher that will get a lot of swings and misses in the upper levels, his K% has been good over the last two years as well.
I could see him as a guy you bring in to throw a full inning when the lineup is lefty-righty-lefty and he can just throw all changeups to the righty in the middle. He threw mainly changes to righties, and threw quite a bit to lefties as well. He could also be a LOOGY or a AAA all-star, but I do think he would provide some relief value to a big league club in the future.

Jeff Locke made his first MLB start in 2012 on Monday against the Astros and wasn't bad (6/1 K/BB, 60% GB, 3.91 FIP). He started four (horrible) games for the Pirates last season and had pitched in 2 games as a reliever earlier this year. In AAA as a starter (24 starts), he was solid, with a 3.24 FIP.

Locke was pretty off-speed heavy (I won't use a lot of Pitch F/X since everything is so small sample size and I will be done with this post before the data from this game become available),especially to righties.
He has a curve at about 78-81 MPH (called a slider sometimes by Pitch F/X) that has some good bite. However, it has a tendency to stay up and turns into a batting practice pitch when it does.
His change is the pitch that scouts always liked about Locke and it sits at about 81-82 (averaged 81.4 MPH according to Fangraphs).The lefty's Fastball was only at 90 MPH (90.1 average) and was best when he threw it down. I think he has the tools to get right-handers out enough to be a starter, but he certainly won't be a dominating one. If he turns out to be a league average starter, I would be mildly surprised and the Pirates should be thrilled.

Will Aroldis Chapman be worth it?

Aroldis Chapman has come over with a lot of fan fare. He throws very very hard, and has reached around 103 rather consistently. Chapman had a .3 WAR in 2010, and a .6 WAR in 2011, when he made 3.835 million dollars. This is a pretty terrible WASP of 6392. In 2012-2013, he will make 2 million a year, meaning he will just need to register .67 WAR a year to meet the Halladay Standard (He will make 3 million in 2014, meaning he will have to register a 1 WAR). However (his 2010 salary was not released according to Baseball reference, so we will assume it was 2 million), for the Reds to meet the Halladay Standard for his contract, he will need to amass a 4.28 WAR overall. To do that, he needs to get about 1.13 WAR each year for the final 3 years. There is two ways to look at this: 1. That was a lot of salary and expectation to put on one unproven Cuban (where there are certainly no reliable metrics)-defecting player, or 2. The above WAR expectation is very realistic. Just as a reliever, Brandon League, who hardly has the hype of Chapman, registered a 1.2 WAR in 2011, and Mike Adams registered a 2.9 WAR in 2011 and 2.2 WAR in 2010. In 63.1 career innings, Chapman has a stunning -6.703 PE, Adams had a -5.033 PE in 73.2 innings, and League had just a -.344 PE. So there is no reason Chapman cannot put up that kind of season. Chapman is currently in the Arizona Fall League trying to convert into a starter. This is important, because they throw so much more innings, starters are much more valuable. For example, Bruce Chen, despite having a very pedestrian 2.083 PE, had a 2.6 WAR in 2011, and Joe Saunders had a 3.147 PE and a 2.4 WAR. For Chapman, it is admittedly a small sample, but his TR is really good at 11.39. It is hard to tell how exactly the transition to starter will work, but it is certainly the right decision. He has pitched 101 innings in AAA for the Reds in the International League, so we can perhaps use the metric to help project how he will do. In AAA he had a -4.328 PE, according to the International League metric I mapped out, Chapman would have a -1.789 PE. Of course, so far in the Majors his PE has been much better. There are two ways to react to this, it could be because Chapman made some starts in AAA, or we can argue that his success in the Majors will not be what we can expect for the long haul (or the metric could be faulty, or Chapman has above average success in the Majors over his AAA numbers). Either way, it would be a big disappointment and surprising if Chapman can't live up to his contract for the Reds.

Winter League Update: Brian Bogusevic

The Houston Astro's Brian Bogusevic is currently leading the Dominican Winter League in OBP (.433 in 15 games) and is 6th in OPS (.893). His PPG is not very impressive at 1.13, but his ABPP is at 1.79. He is walking 18% of his At-Bats, and has just one more strikeout than walk. So while not a dangerous power hitter, he is being very efficient. Bogusevic has played 106 games with the big league team, and has 1.1 WAR (.6 O-WAR and .5 D-WAR, a great bargain at a little over $400,000). He has an OBP of .335, and OPS of .767, with a PAPP of 2.8. None of this is impressive, but its not bad either. He has an above league average Range Factor for the outfield at 2.54 and the eyeball test has already shown some spectacular defensive plays. However, one has to be extremely cautious of his positive offensive numbers, as his BABIP is .350. It cannot be expected for this to keep up. His Secondary Average is .266, his ISO is .166, and he walks about league average at 8.5%. Not only is he an under-average home run hitter, he is also a groundball hitter, which makes the high BABIP even more unsettling. He sees a lot of pitches and has a 95.64 PPS, which is somewhat comforting. However, because of the small sample size and data-skewing BABIP, it seems helpful to look at his minor league numbers. In 7 seasons (his first couple minor league seasons were as a pitcher), he had a .363 OBP, .770 OPS, 1.08 PPG, and 2.43 PAPP. Again, he isn't a power hitter or "productive" hitter, but he is pretty efficient, has a knack for walking and getting on base, which can be valuable at the bottom or top of the order.

So What Happened to J.A. Happ?

The Houston Astros' starting pitcher J.A. Happ had the distinction of being one of the worst pitchers in the majors in 2011. He posted a -1.4 WAR in 28 starts. When looking at his past, we realize that this is really bizarre. In 2009, with the Phillies, he posted a 4.1 WAR. After being shipped to the Astros in the middle of the 2010, he put up a 1 WAR in 72 innings. So was 2011 a strange misnomer year or is this the new unimproved Happ. He is not even 30, so we will throw age being a major factor out. In 2009, he had a very solid for a starting pitcher .1 PE. His TR was a decent number but by no means great at 9.78. In 2011, he had a 1.74 PE, which is not good, but its not completely terrible for a starting pitcher. His TR was absolutely miserable, at a 6. TR tries to explain exactly what happened to a pitcher, while PE simply shows the pitchers' main results. He threw less strikes in 2011, and it led to a worse K/BB ratio. According to FanGraphs, he had a cutter he threw 15% of the time in 09. He did not throw this pitch in 2011. He also threw his curveball 3 times as much in 2011. He seems to be a slightly different pitcher than he was in 2009. There was not a big difference in FIP in 09 and his FIP in 2011 (4.33-4.64). The Astros defense clearly hurt him in 2011, while the Phillies' defense made him look a lot better than he actually was in 09 (this is also shown by the BABIP). There was also a huge difference in LOB % (20 % difference!) between the 2 years. For whatever reason (a slightly worse HR/9IP ratio in 11 could have contributed), he wasn't able to keep the runners on base from scoring. He was always a fly-ball pitcher, and I have a theory on fly-ball pitchers. The theory goes like this: unless you have a huge ballpark, if you have a fly-ball pitcher, trade him to your rival. He has always walked too many hitters, which makes his fly-ball pitching even worse. The stats seem to say that he is not quite as bad as he was in 2011, but he was not near as good as 2009 suggested. Playing for the terrible Astros won't help him either.