A Pitch F/X Look At Carlos Martinez

Carlos Martinez got an unexpected call up to the big leagues from the Cardinals last week. The 21 year old right-hander has been a starter in the minors, but they have brought him up as a reliever, a curious move from a development perspective. With that said, let's look at what he has shown in relief so far, and see if we can use tools to project how he might pitch as a starter in the big leagues.

First, let's look at his release point, which has been 5.39 vertically and -1.32 horizontally. Obviously that short of a height makes it hard to make comparisons for him. I count only 3 starters in our release point comparisons that had a 5.3 vertical release point, Tim Hudson, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Chad Gaudin (there are two 5.2 and 5.1 pitchers). Those pitchers have all had injury issues, though two of them are very successful MLB starters.

As a reliever Casey Janssen is really close and the best comparison. I count 10 different relievers that have a 5.3 vertical release point, several of them very successful or hard throwing (Marmol, Romo, League, Camp, Heilman, and Miller for example).

He is just 6 foot, so this explains part of it, but it still shouldn't be this low, especially since he isn't coming out sidearm as well. I took this screenshot that I think illustrates why it is so low:

It is not good posture, which makes you wonder if he can stay healthy as a starter or have good control. His head is in an okay place, but most of his body is moving away from his arm.

Let's take a look at his pitches, as always, starting with the spin and speed chart:

I see two different kind of fastballs and a curveball:

98.33 MPH Fastball
94.71 MPH Moving Fastball
80.79 MPH curve

Since the average regression from the bullpen to the rotation is 1.29 MPH, here is how Martinez' pitches would theoretically look like in the rotation:

97.04 MPH Fastball
93.42 MPH Moving Fastball
79.5 MPH Curve

Stephen Strasburg has the highest average fastball for a right-handed starter in the Pitch F/X era and it averages 96.88 MPH. Strasburg's curve is harder than Martinez' projects to be (and even is as a reliever), but the fastball is better for Martinez, though the sinker (or the more moving fastball) isn't as hard.

When I watched Martinez in the minors last year (and wrote about it on the blog), his problems stemmed from breaking ball and offspeed command. As a reliever, all he has shown is 3 curveballs, with no sliders or changeups. With his plus plus fastball that reaches 100 MPH, he doesn't need those off-speed pitches out of the bullpen. It is basically Nathan Jones or Trevor Rosenthal stuff. He can clearly be an elite reliever, but can he be a successful starter? With the data we have, we can't say, and there seems to be some serious command questions when looking at his delivery.

Will Aroldis Chapman be worth it?

Aroldis Chapman has come over with a lot of fan fare. He throws very very hard, and has reached around 103 rather consistently. Chapman had a .3 WAR in 2010, and a .6 WAR in 2011, when he made 3.835 million dollars. This is a pretty terrible WASP of 6392. In 2012-2013, he will make 2 million a year, meaning he will just need to register .67 WAR a year to meet the Halladay Standard (He will make 3 million in 2014, meaning he will have to register a 1 WAR). However (his 2010 salary was not released according to Baseball reference, so we will assume it was 2 million), for the Reds to meet the Halladay Standard for his contract, he will need to amass a 4.28 WAR overall. To do that, he needs to get about 1.13 WAR each year for the final 3 years. There is two ways to look at this: 1. That was a lot of salary and expectation to put on one unproven Cuban (where there are certainly no reliable metrics)-defecting player, or 2. The above WAR expectation is very realistic. Just as a reliever, Brandon League, who hardly has the hype of Chapman, registered a 1.2 WAR in 2011, and Mike Adams registered a 2.9 WAR in 2011 and 2.2 WAR in 2010. In 63.1 career innings, Chapman has a stunning -6.703 PE, Adams had a -5.033 PE in 73.2 innings, and League had just a -.344 PE. So there is no reason Chapman cannot put up that kind of season. Chapman is currently in the Arizona Fall League trying to convert into a starter. This is important, because they throw so much more innings, starters are much more valuable. For example, Bruce Chen, despite having a very pedestrian 2.083 PE, had a 2.6 WAR in 2011, and Joe Saunders had a 3.147 PE and a 2.4 WAR. For Chapman, it is admittedly a small sample, but his TR is really good at 11.39. It is hard to tell how exactly the transition to starter will work, but it is certainly the right decision. He has pitched 101 innings in AAA for the Reds in the International League, so we can perhaps use the metric to help project how he will do. In AAA he had a -4.328 PE, according to the International League metric I mapped out, Chapman would have a -1.789 PE. Of course, so far in the Majors his PE has been much better. There are two ways to react to this, it could be because Chapman made some starts in AAA, or we can argue that his success in the Majors will not be what we can expect for the long haul (or the metric could be faulty, or Chapman has above average success in the Majors over his AAA numbers). Either way, it would be a big disappointment and surprising if Chapman can't live up to his contract for the Reds.

So you have saved 600 have you? Mariano Rivera

Last night, Yankee's closer Mariano Rivera saved his 600th game. He did this around midnight Central time in Seattle, on a, bizarrely, failed Ichiro (I am really starting to question whether this season is just an aberration for Ichiro, he may be done) stolen base attempt, with little fanfare and no celebration. Rivera, who is now just 1 save behind all-time leader Trevor Hoffman, is still pitching great, with a 2.05 ERA, .930 WHIP, nearly a strikeout per inning pitched, only 1 walk per 9 innings, 21 RAR (Runs Above Replacement), and 3.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). For his career, Rivera has a 55.9 WAR (basically meaning he has single handedly won 60 games for the Yankees, when you add up all his accomplishments), and this doesn't even mention the post-season success. Saber-metrically, his career compares to Dennis Eckersley who compiled a 59 WAR in his career. However, it is quite silly to call (as I have been hearing lately) Rivera "the most valuable Yankee" or "greatest pitcher ever, as Greg Maddux had a WAR of nearly 100 for his career, and C.C. Sabathia more than doubles Rivera's WAR on the season with a 6.5. Relief pitchers, no matter how great, cannot be as valuable as good starting pitchers (this explains how Brandon League's, clearly having the better year, WAR is lower than Brandon Morrow's, who has struggled for the most part). As far as Rivera salary to performance (measured by WASP, which is discussed in previous postings here) he is well above (above is bad, below is good) the "Halladay Standard", posting a WASP of nearly 5000. But one could correctly make the point that the Yankees do not need to worry about efficiency because they are able to spend so much money. During his career, Rivera has made an eye popping $144 million and change. However, his career WASP is under the "Halladay Standard" of 3000 at 2585.51, so even for moneyball teams, Rivera would have been worth it. An obvious hall of famer, Rivera will become the all-time leader in saves with in the next few days, and its always fun seeing old guys do great