Thursday, November 3, 2011
Winter League Update: Brian Bogusevic
The Houston Astro's Brian Bogusevic is currently leading the Dominican Winter League in OBP (.433 in 15 games) and is 6th in OPS (.893). His PPG is not very impressive at 1.13, but his ABPP is at 1.79. He is walking 18% of his At-Bats, and has just one more strikeout than walk. So while not a dangerous power hitter, he is being very efficient. Bogusevic has played 106 games with the big league team, and has 1.1 WAR (.6 O-WAR and .5 D-WAR, a great bargain at a little over $400,000). He has an OBP of .335, and OPS of .767, with a PAPP of 2.8. None of this is impressive, but its not bad either. He has an above league average Range Factor for the outfield at 2.54 and the eyeball test has already shown some spectacular defensive plays. However, one has to be extremely cautious of his positive offensive numbers, as his BABIP is .350. It cannot be expected for this to keep up. His Secondary Average is .266, his ISO is .166, and he walks about league average at 8.5%. Not only is he an under-average home run hitter, he is also a groundball hitter, which makes the high BABIP even more unsettling. He sees a lot of pitches and has a 95.64 PPS, which is somewhat comforting. However, because of the small sample size and data-skewing BABIP, it seems helpful to look at his minor league numbers. In 7 seasons (his first couple minor league seasons were as a pitcher), he had a .363 OBP, .770 OPS, 1.08 PPG, and 2.43 PAPP. Again, he isn't a power hitter or "productive" hitter, but he is pretty efficient, has a knack for walking and getting on base, which can be valuable at the bottom or top of the order.