Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Free Agent Watch: Gustavo Chacin

Gustavo Chacin registered a 3.5 WAR in his first full season in the majors in 2005. He never repeated that success though, as in 2006 he dropped down to .6 WAR, then -.1 WAR in 2007. In 2010, he made it back to the Majors, only to register a -.1 WAR. In his good year in 2005, his PE was not very good at 2.43, and his adjusted PE was even worse at 2.97. His TR was 8.44, and his FIP - (FIP adjusted for ballpark factors etc.) was slightly under average (of course, you want lower numbers) at 96. His SIERA was awful though at 4.76. Even though SIERA kills him, he had a BABIP of .296 which is about average, and he gave up less than a homer every 9 innings at .89. He got more groundballs than flyballs, but the biggest complaint, and this is why the metrics hated him, was that he didn't strikeout many batters. So lets fast forward past his melt down in Toronto and his stint with the Phillies organization (and they never felt compelled to use him in the Majors) and look at his 2010 season in Houston. He was used only as a short inning reliever, averaging less than an inning an appearance. He had a PE of 2.34, and an adjusted PE of 1.68. His TR was just 7.45. However, he was the victim of a horrible Astro team and that really screwed with the metrics. He suffered through a .364 BABIP (giving him a BAA of .301 and WHIP of 1.85. Those who claim WHIP usually stays the same for a pitcher over a career are at the very least simplifying things, because BABIP can screw with that too), so even with the pedestrian TR and PE, he still had a just above average 103 FIP -. SIERA was still not impressed, as he had a 4.42. Again, he didn't give up the longball, at .7 HR/9IP, but he no longer got the groundball at .82 GB/FB. He also had major walk problems at a 4.7 BB/9IP. He didn't pitch in the majors in 2011, and pitched for the Astros and Mets AAA teams. He pitched just 15 innings for the Mets, so we will throw that out and instead look at his Astro AAA numbers, where he threw 66.2 innings as both a reliever and starter. He was miserable there, with a 4.67 PE and 4.5 adjusted PE. Uncharacteristically, he struggled with the long ball, with 1.08 HR/9IP. Even though his BABIP was a little high, at .319, that wasn't the problem. He didn't pitch well, and that was in AAA. Chacin really doesn't have any value, I don't see the point of bringing him in even to Spring Training.

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