Tuesday, September 13, 2011

How much should CJ Wilson make?

C.J. Wilson, the Left-handed Ace for the Texas Rangers, looks to be the top pitching free agent this season. He is expected to get really big money, and I want to take a look at how much he is worth statistically. I'll start by assuming that Roy Halladay is the standard for performance and pay (baseballplayerssalaries.com has him at "worth it", with a slightly better percentage of performance than team salary according to their metrics). He is making 20 million dollars this year with a RAR of 59 and a WAR of 6.5. This gives him a WASP of 3076. C.J. Wilson's WASP is currently 1562 (with a salary of $7.5 million and a WAR of 4.8). While WASP can't really help calculate the amount of years a player deserves (and that is a big sticking question in baseball, especially pitchers, because of guaranteed contracts), but using the Halladay standard on WASP, C.J Wilson is worth about twice as much as he is making. A $15 million dollar deal would be reasonable, remember that number when we get to the Winter Meetings.

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