Free Agent Watch: Chad Qualls

The San Diego Padres decided to decline Chad Qualls' mind-boggling 6 million dollar 2012 option (he made 1.5 million in 201). The buyout cost 1.05 million dollars. In his career, he has a 3.8 WAR, .475 WAR per year, which deserves  1.425 million per year. In 2011, he had a .6 WAR, which would be worth 1.8 million according to the Halladay Standard, meaning the Padres got a slightly good deal on him. However, if they got the same production at 6 million dollars it would be a 10000 WASP. The 1.05 million at a 0 WAR is a 3150 WASP. It always sucks to have dead money, but this buyout made sense. In 2010 he had a horrible -3 WAR with the Diamondbacks and Rays. What is the difference between 2010 and 2011? In 2010, his PE was 4.94, and in 2011 it was 2.1. The former is horrible, while the latter isn't very good either. Strangely, he struck out less in 2011. In 2010, his ERA was 7.32, but his FIP was only 4.13! That would be a mediocre ERA instead of his terrible one. Remember he spent most of the year with the Diamondbacks, who let Mark Reynolds "grace" the infield. His BABIP was .386 (compared to .316 for his career). He only left 53% of runners on base in 2010, 72% in his career. It wasn't all luck, he gave up more homers than usual. In 2010, his TR was 6.99, not very good. In 2011, it was 10.78, very solid. However, not to the extent of his bad luck in 2010, he was pretty lucky in 2011. His BABIP was lower than career average, at .280, he left more people on base than usual, and his FIP was .39 higher than his ERA. Fangraphs actually gives Qualls a positive WAR in 2010, and a negative WAR in 2011. I think this is overboard. It seems to be the case that he is somewhere between his terrible 2010 season and his decent 2011 season. The career WAR of .475 sounds about right, and if I am right on that, then it seems hard to justify bringing in a veteran, and paying him 1.5 million for that little production. According to WAR (assuming 95 wins makes the playoffs, and a "replacement team" of 0 war wins 51.84 games), you would need 91 Chad Qualls' to make the playoffs (On a 25 man roster, you need everyone to average a 1.72 WAR to win 95 games. If every player is paid according to the Halladay Standard, you would need a payroll of 130 million to make the playoffs. This shows the necessity of pre-arbitration players contributing to make the playoffs).

Free Agent Watch: Josh Bard

Bard registered a .2 WAR in 2011, worth $600,000. Because of his terrible 2009 season (Nationals), his WAR for the past 3 years is a negative. Horrible seasons put up by a player shouldn't be ignored. Bard has a career .320 OBP, 705 OPS, 2.99 PAPP, and .72 PPG. In 2011, he had a 3.58 PAPP, .256 OBP, .589 OPS, and .69 PPG in less than a 100 PA. In his career, he has a 84.6 Pitches per Starter, a mediocre Secondary Average of .227, and a pretty awful Isolated Slugging of .130. An offense with 9 Josh Bards would score 4.2 runs a game and win about 68 games (assuming average pitching). He swings at the first pitch about 10 percent more than the average bear, but still sees an average amount of 3-0 counts. There definitely have to be questions about his eye at the plate as 44% of his strikeouts are looking (league average is 26%). As a catcher, he grounds into a lot of double plays, but one would expect that. The problem is that he hits more groundballs than average, which wipes out his slightly above average walking percentage. Match that with very little power, and you have a very mediocre hitter (and not a good defender at -1.9 WAR in his career). I wouldn't expect him to be more than a third catcher AAAA type, or maybe a backup catcher for one of the leagues best. I don't see how anyone can pay him more than minimum salary.

World Series Preview: Rangers and Cardinals

So its time for the World Series. Here is the statistical preview:

The Rangers are going to look like this in the starting rotation: Wilson (.148 WAR per start, -1.87 PE), Lewis (.061 WAR per start, .51 PE), Harrison (.13 WAR per Start, 1.17 PE), Holland (.55 PE, .081 WAR per Start),  as starting pitchers. Their  bullpen looks like this Ogando (3.4 WAR, .3 PE), Feliz (-1.8 PE, .8 WAR), Gonzalez (-.55 PE, .2 WAR) , Adams (-5.24 PE, 1.7 WAR), Uejara (1.2 WAR, -7.09 PE), Oliver (-2.01 PE, 1.2 WAR), Lowe (.3 WAR and -.56 PE) and Feldman (.98 PE, .2 WAR). Their lineup will probably look like (in no particular order): Hamilton (.03 WAR per game, 1.723 PPG, 2.42 PAPP), Cruz (.011 WAR per Game, 1.52 PPG, 2.74 PAPP), Murphy (2.74 PAPP, .966 PPG, Negative WAR), Napoli (2.13 PAPP, .045 WAR per game, 1.504 PPG), Kinsler (2.39 PAPP, 1.67 PPG, .035 WAR per Game), Andrus (.024 WAR per game, 1.32 PPG, 2.68 PAPP) Beltre (1.76 PPG, .043 WAR per game, 2.63 PAPP), Young (.015 WAR per game, 2.5 PAPP, 1.33 PPG), and with the DH Torreabla (.006 WAR per game, .75 PPG, 3.14 PAPP).

 For the Cardinals, the starting rotation should look like: Carpenter (.11 WAR per Start, .07 PE), Lohse (.083 WAR per start, 1.66 PE), Garcia (.028 WAR per start, .34 PE), and Jackson (1.38 PE, .067 WAR).  Their bullpen maps out with these guys: Rhodes (2.95 PE, -.6 WAR), Rzepczynski (1 WAR, -2.07 PE), Dotel (-4.04 PE, .9 WAR), , Salas (-3.93 PE, 1 WAR), Westbrook (3.91 PE, Negative WAR), Mclellen (3.23 PE, negative WAR), Motte (-3.15 PE, 1.6 WAR), and Boggs (.3 WAR, .43 PE). They will probably run out this lineup (in no order): Jay (.01 WAR per game, 2.92 PAPP, .63 PPG), Berkman (.036 WAR per game, 1.5 PPG, 2.21 PAPP) , Holliday (.033 WAR per game, 1.48 PPG, 2.4 PAPP), Pujols (.037 WAR per game, 2.33 PAPP, 1.7 PPG), Freese (1.1 PPG, .019 WAR per game, 2.71 PAPP), Furcal (.028 WAR per game, 2.855 PAPP, 1.12 PPG), Schumaker (.005 WAR per game, 3.05 PAPP, .63 PPG), Molina (2.71 PAPP, .99 PPG, .028 WAR per game), and when DH Craig (2.33 PAPP, 1.19 PPG, and .039 WAR per game).

As far as starting pitching goes, The Rangers have advantage in game 1 (and in turn, gave 5), and in games 2 and 6 it is a split as Lewis has a better PE, while Lohse has a better WAR. Basically the same happens in game 3 and 7 between Harrison and Garcia. In game 4, Holland is better than Edwin Jackson, so the Rangers have the clear advantage in starting pitching. The Rangers bullpen has a much better WAR, and a much better than PE. It is not even close, the Rangers have the better bullpen. With or without the DH, the Cardinals have the better lineup according to WAR, but the Rangers have the better Production Per Game (with or without the DH). The Cardinals also have the higher Plate Appearances per Positive Play, which is bad, you want the lower number. Something similar happened in the Tampa Bay and Ranger series, as the Rangers were better at PPG and PAPP but worse at WAR. This is most likely because of defense. So the Rangers have the better offense and pitching. The Cardinals are only better at defense. So the statistics show a clear advantage for the Rangers in this series.

How we did: Week 6 NFL Picks

Big D in bold. Me in Italics

Eagles threw less picks than Redskins
Pats disappoint Cowboys
Giants down Bills
Excuse: Close game, the ever inconsistent Giants showed up this week. It still looks like the Bills are for real, but Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two ugly picks.
Bears embarrass Vikings
Jets suck less than the Dolphins

Big D: 4-1, 21-9 overall
Me: 4-1, 20-10 overall

Free Agent Watch: Chein-Ming Wang

It is now rumored that the Nationals are discussing an extension with Starting Pitcher Chein-Ming Wang. In 62.1 innings with the Nats, Wang had an even 0 WAR. This is after losing the entire 2010 season to injury. In 5 seasons with the Yankees, he posted a 10.9 WAR, making about 10 million dollars in that time (a 917 WASP for a franchise that is notoriously inefficient). His best year was when he put up a 5.4 WAR, but in 2009 he had a terrible -2.1 WAR season. WAR seems either unhelpful, or condemning because he has put up a -2.1 WAR over the past 3 calendar years. Before dissecting his Nationals numbers, it seems helpful to look at his 2011 minor league numbers as he worked his way back to the Majors. In 4 different levels of minor leagues, he threw 28.2 innings. He gave up 2 homers, walked just 4, and had a pretty underwhelming 1.52 PE. In 2011 for the Major League club, he had an extremely poor PE of 4.39 and his TR was a pretty mediocre 8.29. The Nationals defense made him look better than he actually was with a low BABIP and difference of over .50 in FIP. I just don't see how Wang is worth any more than minimum salary, and the Nationals' management is proving to be pretty silly with money.

Free Agent Watch: Jeremy Accardo

Orioles reliever Jeremy Accardo elected free agency earlier today. In 2011 (which he split between the majors and AAA) he registered a -.1 WAR. In 2010, he had a -.2, and a .6 WAR in 2009. In his AAA stint, he threw 33.1 innings (all in relief), and posted a -1.89 PE. This is a good number for a relief pitcher before you factor in that this is AAA. He was also helped out by a low BABIP (.266) and his FIP was almost a full run higher than his ERA, meaning he got some help from his fielders. In the Majors, he was pretty bad, with a PE of 4.76, and a TR of 5.92 which is simply not good at all. He struggled with walks, walking 4.3 batters every 9 innings (this is despite throwing strikes 62% of the time, this suggests he had periods where he just couldn't throw strikes to save his life). He managed the worse combination with the walks as well, struggling with the long ball, giving up 1.19 HR/9IP. In AAA, he only gave up .27 HR/9IP, which suggest that maybe his skills aren't translating between levels. However, the Mark Reynolds infield wasn't exactly helping him out, as his FIP was about .70 below his ERA, making you question the .317 BABIP as well. It doesn't help that he gave up more flyballs than groundballs though. Accardo may be the definition of a "replacement player", with good AAA numbers, but bad major league numbers. He may just be an  AAAA guy. He can be a guy to come in and fill up a spring training roster or a AAA roster filler, and an extra arm to bring up when needed, but I wouldn't invest much money in him, especially if I am in a home-run friendly park.

Free Agent Watch: Ramon Santiago

Ramon Santiago put up 1.3 WAR in 2011. That would be worth 3.9 million according to Halladay Standard. Over the past 3 years, he has averaged a 1.67 WAR, worth 5 million according to Halladay Standard. It is clearly his defense that is carrying him though, he had a pathetic 3.3 PAPP, .63 PPG, .311 OBP, .695 OPS in 2011. In his career, the numbers are about the same: 3.3 PAPP, .67, .316 OBP, .658 OPS. He has a career 81.96 pitches per starter (a metric that measures how many pitches he would cause a starter to throw through 6 innings if he was every single plate appearance), hits more groundballs than major league average, and 17% of his flyballs were in the infield in 2011 (way more than league average). Of course, he doesn't walk much, gets less extra base hits than most major leaguers, and has over twice as many at-bats per home runs as average. His career secondary average is a pretty putrid .176, and an offense full of Santiago's would win just 38% of its games (assuming average pitching and fielding). Whatever he is going to be paid, it is going to be too much. The only positive statistic he has every led the league in is sacrifice hits. That says it all.