Thursday, July 18, 2013

Control and Delivery Repitition in the Futures Game

Continuing our look at the Pitch F/X data from the Futures Game, I wanted to get a further look at the pitchers' command. By my count, about 55.6 % of pitches in the Futures Game were thrown in the traditional strike zone, while in the MLB All Star game, 51.4 % of pitches were thrown in the strike zone. So, if I am counting right, there were more pitches in the strike zone (and a lot more) in the Futures game than in the MLB All Star Game, which is somewhat surprising. What it exactly means probably isn't worth speculating about, but it is notable when talking about the command of the Futures Game's pitchers.

I wanted to look at some of the worst commanded pitches in the game, and see which pitchers' names keep popping up. Here are the worst pitches in the game, by height (both lowest and highest) and by horizontal location (left to right):

Ynoa had two of the worst pitches, a fastball that he clearly didn't finish his delivery on, and then a curve he spiked. 

The following are the worst pitches (defined by the furthest out of the strike zone) broken down by pitch type, starting with fastballs

Ynoa's fastball shows up obviously, but we also get a very high pitch from Walker, and another pitch from Andre Rienzo.


Some different names on this list, though I guess it shouldn't be surprising Romero appears considering his gets so much movement. 


 Some more familiar names.


Carlos Contreras shows up again, Archie Bradley makes his only appearance.

To get a further look at possible command, I wanted to look at how well the pitchers' repeated their deliveries by release points. I also put their walk rates from their career in the minor leagues for reference. Sorted by horizontal difference per pitch:

Almonte's appearance at the top is no surprise, considering what may be a Pitch F/X error (at least that is the assumption I have been operating under). 

Neither horizontal or vertical standard deviation when it comes to release points in the Futures Game correlate very well to the minor league walk rates, with horizontal standard deviation correlating a little better (-.1 to -.16). It probably doesn't help that there is a pitch number bias (the more pitches you throw, the more likely the standard deviation will be higher), which is probably why Riefenhauser rated so well.

No comments:

Post a Comment