Friday, September 9, 2011
Why it is ridiculous to say that a great hitter is more valuable than a great pitcher
As the season gets close to ending, the MVP talk is starting to heat up. With the awesome year Justin Verlander is having there has been some talk about whether he should not only win the Cy Young Award, but perhaps the MVP as well. Now I don't want to discuss whether he deserves it as not (I like having separate awards for position players and the pitchers, but that is just my little opinion), but there has been one interesting critique that I want to smash. Some have said that a pitcher can't be as valuable as a position player, because the position player is on the field everyday, while the pitcher is only on the field every 5 days (or on the Yankees and White Sox, 6 days). Before we look at some statistics, lets just reason this out. In a 5 day span a batter (in a good offense) would get about 20 plate appearances. In a start, most pitchers will face at least that many batters (not to mention, a pitcher can shut down the entire lineup for the entire game, ensuring a win, a hitter can only drive in a bunch of runs, which doesn't necessarily have the same value. For example, a hitter can get 5 rbis but the pitcher could give up 6 runs. If a pitcher shuts out the opposing team, they can't lose). As far as fielding, most defensive chances are routine plays that every major leaguers could make, with probably one sparkling opportunity (rough estimate) in 5 days (except Sam Fuld and Asdrubal Cabrera, who seemed to make 1 a game in the first half of this season). Not to mention that a great pitcher can be pitched around, if not pitched to. You can't "hit around" a pitcher (besides maybe bunting). But now to statistics (mainly Sabermetrics), we will look at 4 players: Cliff Lee, Curtis Granderson, Verlander, and Jacoby Ellsbury (all Cy Young and MVP candidates). Because most statistics between pitchers and hitters cannot really be compared (the only really other thing we have is comparative standards, like a .300 batting average is the standard of good, as is an ERA of under 4, etc. That wouldn't be helpful), we will have to rely almost exclusively on the statistic WAR (Wins after Replacement, which measures how many wins the player gives you over a regular player). For many people, Curtis Granderson is a favorite for the AL MVP, and his WAR is 5.2 (its actually negative on defense, meaning he is an under-average fielder for the first time since he became a full time player in the big leagues. Verlander's WAR is a shocking 7.7. Ellsbury's is 6.5, making him more valuable than Granderson, but still not as valuable as Verlander (all this is according to how Baseball Reference, one of the most respected places for baseball stats rates the WAR). Cliff Lee has thrown himself in the ring as well, with a 6.1. Unless one believes that WAR (and sabermetrics in general) is just bogus, then it appears that great pitchers are at least as valuable as great hitters.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Blake Davis and the old right under your nose trick
The Orioles designated Blake Davis for Assignment earlier in the week, placing him on waivers where any team in the league could claim him. No one did, so the Orioles were able to send him to Triple-A. This is curious, both that the Orioles risked this, and that no one claimed him. In the majors, he played 2nd, Short, and 3rd, and in the minors played all three of those positions, and every outfield position (he struggled with errors early on with his minor league career, with 41 in his first two years, but has since cut down on the errors). In 64 Major League plate appearances this year, he had a mediocre average (254) and OBP (323) and a decent OPS (713). In the minors, his numbers are a bit strange, he had a batting average of .280, but the same OBP. He was actually better at working walks in the Majors. He is already 27 and his WAR was in the negative (-.3, but that was because of a -.4 defensive WAR. He was slightly positive on offense) and he hasn't shown much power (only 19 minor league home runs), but he seems to be an improving developing player that can play anywhere on the field, hit a little bit, and steal an occasional base. Surely some team could have used this guy (I am talking about you Giants, Mariners, and Astros)
The Rafael Soriano problem
In 2010 Soriano had a pretty magical year for the Tampa Bay Rays, he posted a 1.73 ERA, a stunning .802 WHIP (Walks,Hits per Innings Pitched). He won 2 and a half games all by himself for the Rays (a 2.5 Wins above Replacement). So the inevitable happened, the Rays couldn't keep him, so he joined the Yankees to be the 8th inning man. Before today (in which he gave up the tying-run against the lowly Orioles), he had just a .4 WAR, an ERA of 4.30, and a WHIP of 1.3, and has battled injuries. For comparison, the 8th inning man for the Rangers (Mike Adams) already has a WAR of .6 and he has only been on the team for a little over a month. One of the set-up men for already 95-loss Astros (as of September 8th) Sergio Escalona has a WAR of .4, and Red Sox setup man Daniel Bard has a WAR of 2. Soriano also makes more money than all these guys (a 3 year $35 million deal). So far this year, he has earned about $402,000 per IP (more than many young players make in a season). Sometimes the Yankees look like geniuses (see my Aaron Laffey post), and sometimes they throw money at the wrong person. The latter (see A.J. Burnett) is why the Yankees will have quite a few pitching questions going into the post-season.
Why the Yankees win Pennants and the Mariners do not
Well first off money. The Yankees always outspend everyone in the major leagues (the Mariners are 18th in payroll).
But also: Last week the Mariners cut Aaron Laffey, a 26 year old lefty pitcher who has both started and relieved in the major leagues. His crime: having a 4.01 ERA in 36 relief appearances with a 1-1 record. His WAR was .3 as a Mariner (their all-star closer League has a Wins Above Replacement of .9, Mariano Rivera has a 2.8). He was helping them more than he was hurting them, is young, and could be a starter for them in the future. Not to mention, they cut him right before rosters expanded. The Yankees of course, gobbled him up and are more than happy to have the lefty in the bullpen. This doesn't have anything to do with money either. Laffey's contract:
1 years / $431.60k
But also: Last week the Mariners cut Aaron Laffey, a 26 year old lefty pitcher who has both started and relieved in the major leagues. His crime: having a 4.01 ERA in 36 relief appearances with a 1-1 record. His WAR was .3 as a Mariner (their all-star closer League has a Wins Above Replacement of .9, Mariano Rivera has a 2.8). He was helping them more than he was hurting them, is young, and could be a starter for them in the future. Not to mention, they cut him right before rosters expanded. The Yankees of course, gobbled him up and are more than happy to have the lefty in the bullpen. This doesn't have anything to do with money either. Laffey's contract:
1 years / $431.60k
Wakefield, 200, and comparisons
On Wednesday, Red Sox Pitcher Tim Wakefield failed for the 7th straight time to get his 200th win (when he finally does, he will become the 111th pitcher to do so, quite an accomplishment considering how many people have been in the majors in the past century plus). I am biased towards the knuckleball, so I think Wakefield is the best thing ever, but lets look at some stats. Here I will compare him to the two pitchers who won exactly 200 games (Chuck Finley) and 201 games (Charlie Root). Wakefield has a career ERA of 4.41, Finley 3.85, and Root 3.59. They all have winning records, but in my opinion, wins and losses are extremely unhelpful in rating a pitcher (take Matt Cain, who has a career era of 3.35, but has a losing record). Wakefield also has a lower wins above replacement player (31.8, with negatives the past two years. I would be shocked if he pitches for the Sox next year) than Root (37.9), and Finley (55). Wakefield does have a better WHIP than Finley, but Root's is better.
The Awesomeness of Andrew McCutchen
Last night (Wednesday Sept. 7) the pitcher J.A. Happ and catcher Humberto Quintero of the Astros met at the mound for a lengthy conversation on the mound to discuss how to pitch to CF Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates. McCutchen represented the tying man, and put the very first pitch he saw in the stands (his second homer of the day). The Pirates went on to win the game. Even though the Pirates have faded drastically in the second half, the value of McCutchen to this team cannot be overstated. With a little less than a month to play, he has hit 22 homers, 85 rbis, (the average is low at .269, but the OBP is very respectable at .372), and 20 stolen bases. His WAR (wins above replacement player, measures how many more or less games a team would win with an "average" bubble player playing instead of the player in question) is 5.4, most on offense, but his defense has certainly improved. For comparison, last year's AL MVP Josh Hamilton's war was 7.2 (this year it is only 2.9). McCutchen was selected 11th (in the first round) in the 2005 draft, 1 behind Cameron Maybin (now playing for the Padres but selected by the Tigers). Maybin played just 24 games for the team who drafted him, and hit .143. In his career, all added up, his WAR is just 5, which is less than McCutchen's total just this year (Maybin is having his best year though, with a WAR of 3).
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
College Football Predictions: The MAC
The MAC
The MAC is probably the worst conference in the FBS (the Sun Belt is the only other conference that compares). Most of the teams in the conference are really really bad. However, they have always been one of my favorite conferences to watch (I am still shocked that Garrett Wolfe hasn't turned into a very good NFL runningback). The conference does boast former players like Big Ben of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Greg Jennings of the Green Bay Packers.
Toledo
These guys won 8 games last year, a dramatic turnaround from just a few years ago. They return 9 starters on both sides of the ball from last years team. They ran the ball really well last year, and return their star running back. The line has some changes but should be okay. The defense looks to be really good as well.
Final Prediction: New Hampshire is followed by Ohio State and Boise State. Its never fun to get lit up two weeks in a row, but its going to happen. However, they could skate through the rest of the schedule and win 10 games and the conference.
Northern Illinois
They were top 15 in the country in both offense and defense last year. However, they were shocked in the MAC championship game by Miami (OH). Dave Doeren takes over as head coach, and he doesn't need to make many changes it appears. They return a very nice quarterback in Harnish, but lost their leading rusher from last year. The line all returns, meaning that this will be a very good offense. However, their defense does look shaky. They only return two starters on that side of the ball and the secondary may be really bad, and with a couple of really good passing teams in this conference, that spells big trouble.
Final Prediction: They start the year with Army, Kansas, and Wisconsin. That is a pretty tough stretch. I think these guys will be good and win 8 or 9 games, but with the secondary problems, I believe they will come up just short of the conference championship again.
Miami (OH)
One of College Football's best stories last season, as they had an awful 1-11 season in 09, and then won the MAC championship and 10 games in 2010. However, there is a coaching change, and with that brings, well, change. There are 8 returning starters on offense, including both quarterbacks they used last year. They did lose star runningback Merriweather, and he was one of my favorite players in college football last season, he won't be easy to replace. They do have 9 defensive players returning from last year's solid defense.
Final Prediction: They start the year against Missouri and Minnesota, and also have to play Cincinnati and Army. This year won't be like last year, and don't expect them to repeat, but they should still be good and win about 7.
Ohio
They went 8-4 last year before losing to an exciting Troy team in the New Orleans Bowl. They have been very competitive in the MAC the past few seasons, and they bring back the best offense in the conference. The whole offensive line returns and it all starts up front. The defense only returns just two starters and appear to be the weak spot on this team. The secondary could cost this team some games.
Final Prediction: New Mexico State and Gardener-Webb is how the season starts. They do have to play Rutgers later on though. 7 wins seem pretty reasonable for these guys, anything less than another bowl game would be disappointing.
Western Michigan
They went 6-6 last year, but weren't picked by a bowl. They have quite a quarterback in Alex Carder, and are able to throw the ball really well. Their defensive is really solid upfront and can control a game in this conference. The only real questions this team has is what their running game will do, and how their offensive line (that is replacing 3 starters) will hold up.
Final Prediction: Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut are the toughest teams on the schedule. Expect another 6 win season, and its easy to see how the bowls will ignore them again.
Central Michigan
Despite going 3-9 last season, they threw the ball all over the field last year. This program had competed in the MAC for the past several years, before the big flop of last year. Dan Enos is entering his second year, and he better turn things around pretty quick. He does return 8 starters on offense, and several on defense. The season will seem to hinge on whether they can run the ball, and thats not good news.
Final Prediction: Michigan State, North Carolina State and Kentucky are tough games, while South Carolina State is not. 5 wins seem reasonable, an improvement from last year.
Temple
They lost Al Golden to Miami (which may have turned out to be a mistake for Golden). They won 8 games and still managed to somehow not be invited to a bowl. The offense was mediocre last year but they are coming back experienced and will probably be better (though one wonders how the new coach will affect this team). Three starters on the line return, but the two that left were two of the best in the MAC. The defense has been key for this team in recent seasons, and this year they have to replace most of the players that helped them secure winning records.
Final Prediction: Villanova, Akron, and Penn State is how they begin the year. Toledo and Army will provide interesting match-ups later in the season. I don't like all the changes and I don't really believe in this team. Expect about 5 wins.
Kent State
In comes in a new coach, but they return 14 starters. They were 5-7 last year, and so the question of this off-season was whether to rebuild, or whether to just try keep the same system. They haven't made a bowl game since 1972, so its not like there is a winning tradition to use to recruit. They have a linebacker that is a NFL prospect, but not a whole lot else on defense.
Final Prediction: They start the year with Alabama, and will be absolutely destroyed in that contest. They also play Kansas State, another game they don't have any business winning. 4 or 5 wins again for this team.
Ball State
After a really terrible season last year, they have a new coach. They really couldn't throw the ball last year. On the other hand, their running game looks to be pretty good. Their defense was pretty bad last year, but they are expecting some improvement.
Final Prediction: Indiana, Army, and Oklahoma will be challenging to say the least. South Florida and Northern Illinois won't be easy either. They haven't been to a bowl game since 08, and its doubtful that they will make one this year as they will probably go through another 4-8 season.
Akron
They won a grand total of one game last year, and went winless in the MAC. They were one of the worst offenses last year, combined with a really really bad defense. Don't expect it to get any better either as they just don't have any talent.
Final Prediction: Akron always insists on playing Ohio State, and it never goes very well for them. They must do it for money. The only other really tough game on the schedule is Cincinnati. 2-3 wins is what you can expect from these guys.
Bowling Green
2-10 was the record last year. Perhaps the biggest reason this happened was that they were the worst in the country at running the ball last year. Experts say that they are building a good program and will good soon, but its really hard to see them improving too much on either side of the ball this season.
Final Prediction: West Virginia is the only ranked team on the schedule, and Idaho and Morgan State aren't very good. That may be their only two wins. But those aren't necessarily guaranteed.
Buffalo
They were the worst offense in the country last year and were another 2-10 team last season. They return 8 starters from that terrible offense and only 3 from the mediocre defense. The O-line is supposed to be bigger and better, but by how much is the real question.
Final Prediction: Tennessee and Pittsburgh are teams that Buffalo has no business playing. Stony Brook is on the schedule and may be their only win.
Eastern Michigan
15 straight losing seasons! 15! They were awful on both offense and defense last year. Head Coach Ron English is 2-22 in his two seasons.
Final Prediction: Howard and Alabama State are easy ways to start. But then they turn around and play Michigan and Penn State. Its really hard to pick who is going to be last in this conference because the cellar is really low, but I am giving that honor to these guys. Be happy with 1 win.
The MAC is probably the worst conference in the FBS (the Sun Belt is the only other conference that compares). Most of the teams in the conference are really really bad. However, they have always been one of my favorite conferences to watch (I am still shocked that Garrett Wolfe hasn't turned into a very good NFL runningback). The conference does boast former players like Big Ben of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Greg Jennings of the Green Bay Packers.
Toledo
These guys won 8 games last year, a dramatic turnaround from just a few years ago. They return 9 starters on both sides of the ball from last years team. They ran the ball really well last year, and return their star running back. The line has some changes but should be okay. The defense looks to be really good as well.
Final Prediction: New Hampshire is followed by Ohio State and Boise State. Its never fun to get lit up two weeks in a row, but its going to happen. However, they could skate through the rest of the schedule and win 10 games and the conference.
Northern Illinois
They were top 15 in the country in both offense and defense last year. However, they were shocked in the MAC championship game by Miami (OH). Dave Doeren takes over as head coach, and he doesn't need to make many changes it appears. They return a very nice quarterback in Harnish, but lost their leading rusher from last year. The line all returns, meaning that this will be a very good offense. However, their defense does look shaky. They only return two starters on that side of the ball and the secondary may be really bad, and with a couple of really good passing teams in this conference, that spells big trouble.
Final Prediction: They start the year with Army, Kansas, and Wisconsin. That is a pretty tough stretch. I think these guys will be good and win 8 or 9 games, but with the secondary problems, I believe they will come up just short of the conference championship again.
Miami (OH)
One of College Football's best stories last season, as they had an awful 1-11 season in 09, and then won the MAC championship and 10 games in 2010. However, there is a coaching change, and with that brings, well, change. There are 8 returning starters on offense, including both quarterbacks they used last year. They did lose star runningback Merriweather, and he was one of my favorite players in college football last season, he won't be easy to replace. They do have 9 defensive players returning from last year's solid defense.
Final Prediction: They start the year against Missouri and Minnesota, and also have to play Cincinnati and Army. This year won't be like last year, and don't expect them to repeat, but they should still be good and win about 7.
Ohio
They went 8-4 last year before losing to an exciting Troy team in the New Orleans Bowl. They have been very competitive in the MAC the past few seasons, and they bring back the best offense in the conference. The whole offensive line returns and it all starts up front. The defense only returns just two starters and appear to be the weak spot on this team. The secondary could cost this team some games.
Final Prediction: New Mexico State and Gardener-Webb is how the season starts. They do have to play Rutgers later on though. 7 wins seem pretty reasonable for these guys, anything less than another bowl game would be disappointing.
Western Michigan
They went 6-6 last year, but weren't picked by a bowl. They have quite a quarterback in Alex Carder, and are able to throw the ball really well. Their defensive is really solid upfront and can control a game in this conference. The only real questions this team has is what their running game will do, and how their offensive line (that is replacing 3 starters) will hold up.
Final Prediction: Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut are the toughest teams on the schedule. Expect another 6 win season, and its easy to see how the bowls will ignore them again.
Central Michigan
Despite going 3-9 last season, they threw the ball all over the field last year. This program had competed in the MAC for the past several years, before the big flop of last year. Dan Enos is entering his second year, and he better turn things around pretty quick. He does return 8 starters on offense, and several on defense. The season will seem to hinge on whether they can run the ball, and thats not good news.
Final Prediction: Michigan State, North Carolina State and Kentucky are tough games, while South Carolina State is not. 5 wins seem reasonable, an improvement from last year.
Temple
They lost Al Golden to Miami (which may have turned out to be a mistake for Golden). They won 8 games and still managed to somehow not be invited to a bowl. The offense was mediocre last year but they are coming back experienced and will probably be better (though one wonders how the new coach will affect this team). Three starters on the line return, but the two that left were two of the best in the MAC. The defense has been key for this team in recent seasons, and this year they have to replace most of the players that helped them secure winning records.
Final Prediction: Villanova, Akron, and Penn State is how they begin the year. Toledo and Army will provide interesting match-ups later in the season. I don't like all the changes and I don't really believe in this team. Expect about 5 wins.
Kent State
In comes in a new coach, but they return 14 starters. They were 5-7 last year, and so the question of this off-season was whether to rebuild, or whether to just try keep the same system. They haven't made a bowl game since 1972, so its not like there is a winning tradition to use to recruit. They have a linebacker that is a NFL prospect, but not a whole lot else on defense.
Final Prediction: They start the year with Alabama, and will be absolutely destroyed in that contest. They also play Kansas State, another game they don't have any business winning. 4 or 5 wins again for this team.
Ball State
After a really terrible season last year, they have a new coach. They really couldn't throw the ball last year. On the other hand, their running game looks to be pretty good. Their defense was pretty bad last year, but they are expecting some improvement.
Final Prediction: Indiana, Army, and Oklahoma will be challenging to say the least. South Florida and Northern Illinois won't be easy either. They haven't been to a bowl game since 08, and its doubtful that they will make one this year as they will probably go through another 4-8 season.
Akron
They won a grand total of one game last year, and went winless in the MAC. They were one of the worst offenses last year, combined with a really really bad defense. Don't expect it to get any better either as they just don't have any talent.
Final Prediction: Akron always insists on playing Ohio State, and it never goes very well for them. They must do it for money. The only other really tough game on the schedule is Cincinnati. 2-3 wins is what you can expect from these guys.
Bowling Green
2-10 was the record last year. Perhaps the biggest reason this happened was that they were the worst in the country at running the ball last year. Experts say that they are building a good program and will good soon, but its really hard to see them improving too much on either side of the ball this season.
Final Prediction: West Virginia is the only ranked team on the schedule, and Idaho and Morgan State aren't very good. That may be their only two wins. But those aren't necessarily guaranteed.
Buffalo
They were the worst offense in the country last year and were another 2-10 team last season. They return 8 starters from that terrible offense and only 3 from the mediocre defense. The O-line is supposed to be bigger and better, but by how much is the real question.
Final Prediction: Tennessee and Pittsburgh are teams that Buffalo has no business playing. Stony Brook is on the schedule and may be their only win.
Eastern Michigan
15 straight losing seasons! 15! They were awful on both offense and defense last year. Head Coach Ron English is 2-22 in his two seasons.
Final Prediction: Howard and Alabama State are easy ways to start. But then they turn around and play Michigan and Penn State. Its really hard to pick who is going to be last in this conference because the cellar is really low, but I am giving that honor to these guys. Be happy with 1 win.
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