Will Aroldis Chapman be worth it?

Aroldis Chapman has come over with a lot of fan fare. He throws very very hard, and has reached around 103 rather consistently. Chapman had a .3 WAR in 2010, and a .6 WAR in 2011, when he made 3.835 million dollars. This is a pretty terrible WASP of 6392. In 2012-2013, he will make 2 million a year, meaning he will just need to register .67 WAR a year to meet the Halladay Standard (He will make 3 million in 2014, meaning he will have to register a 1 WAR). However (his 2010 salary was not released according to Baseball reference, so we will assume it was 2 million), for the Reds to meet the Halladay Standard for his contract, he will need to amass a 4.28 WAR overall. To do that, he needs to get about 1.13 WAR each year for the final 3 years. There is two ways to look at this: 1. That was a lot of salary and expectation to put on one unproven Cuban (where there are certainly no reliable metrics)-defecting player, or 2. The above WAR expectation is very realistic. Just as a reliever, Brandon League, who hardly has the hype of Chapman, registered a 1.2 WAR in 2011, and Mike Adams registered a 2.9 WAR in 2011 and 2.2 WAR in 2010. In 63.1 career innings, Chapman has a stunning -6.703 PE, Adams had a -5.033 PE in 73.2 innings, and League had just a -.344 PE. So there is no reason Chapman cannot put up that kind of season. Chapman is currently in the Arizona Fall League trying to convert into a starter. This is important, because they throw so much more innings, starters are much more valuable. For example, Bruce Chen, despite having a very pedestrian 2.083 PE, had a 2.6 WAR in 2011, and Joe Saunders had a 3.147 PE and a 2.4 WAR. For Chapman, it is admittedly a small sample, but his TR is really good at 11.39. It is hard to tell how exactly the transition to starter will work, but it is certainly the right decision. He has pitched 101 innings in AAA for the Reds in the International League, so we can perhaps use the metric to help project how he will do. In AAA he had a -4.328 PE, according to the International League metric I mapped out, Chapman would have a -1.789 PE. Of course, so far in the Majors his PE has been much better. There are two ways to react to this, it could be because Chapman made some starts in AAA, or we can argue that his success in the Majors will not be what we can expect for the long haul (or the metric could be faulty, or Chapman has above average success in the Majors over his AAA numbers). Either way, it would be a big disappointment and surprising if Chapman can't live up to his contract for the Reds.

Free Agent Watch: Grady Sizemore

Grady Sizemore has been not only bitten by the injury bug in recent years, but it may have actually swallowed him whole. Over the past 3 years, he has a WAR average of .87, worth about 2.6 million according to the Halladay Standard. In 2011, he had just a .5 WAR and actually has a -.4 WAR over the last two years. Despite his name getting a lot of play in free agency talk, this can't be attractive. When he has gotten to play, he has been pretty good with a 1.52 PPG, 2.52 PAPP, .357 OBP, and .830 OPS. However, his 2011 stats, in 71 games, are much less impressive, .285 OBP, .706 OPS, 3.43 PAPP, and 1.07 PPG. Even the more steady statistics of Secondary Average and ISO show that there is a big difference between the Sizemore of several seasons ago and the Sizemore of the past 3 years. One doesn't need to really look at any other statistics to reinforce that point. The only question is whether you believe that it is worth taking the chance that Sizemore will return back to his pre-2009 form. To me, that doesn't make any sense. There is no way a sensible organization gives Sizemore than like 2 million dollars. If he breaks out and returns to form, that is awesome, but you just can't rely on it.

Free Agent Watch: Jason Botts

Jason Botts (playing for the Mets organization), earned a .383 OBP (14th in the International League), 2.48 PAPP, .73 PPG, and .788 OPS in AAA in 2011. This translates to a Simple WAR of 3.2. According to the International League metric, he would have a .337 OBP, 3.05 PAPP, .33 PPG, and 1.71 Simple WAR. He did have a big time .347 BABIP in 2011, and if that was adjusted to a Major League average .300, his OBP would be .311 in the metric. In his 6 seasons played in AAA (although not all in the International League), Botts has a .338 OPS, .896 OPS, 1.41 PPG, and 2.4 PAPP. In Botts' Major League Career (all with Texas, hasn't played in the majors since 2008), he registered a 1 WAR (-.3 O-WAR, 1.3 D-WAR) in 326 Plate Appearances, with a .325 OBP, .72 PPG, and 2.99 PAPP. His Secondary Average was .252, an ISO of .113, and a offensive winning percentage of .378. He walked way more than average at 11.7%, but was an under-average extra base hitter and home run hitter. He also saw an amazing 4.4 pitches per plate appearance, giving him a great 104.94 PPS. He also spent a small sample (66 games) in Japan, posting a .328 OBP, .763 OPS, .7 PPG, and 3 PAPP. This would obviously not translate well (I don't think there is a reason to run him through the metric), but with the AAA numbers being promising and some metrics actually being good in the Majors, we may be able to toss them. Even with Botts being 31, I think there are good reasons to bring him on a minor league basis or minimum salary contract. I don't think he got a fair shake in the Majors, he walks and forces a bunch of pitches to be thrown, and most importantly, he gets on base.

NFL Picks: Week 9

Big D in Bold, I in Italics

Cowboys versus Seahawks
Patriots versus Giants
Broncos versus Raiders
Ravens versus Steelers
Eagles versus Bears

Should the Braves trade Prado and Jurrjens?

The Braves have now let it leak that they are interested in trading both Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens. Prado has a 2.1 WAR average over the last 3 years (worth 6.3 million) and is going to arbitration this off-season (he made 3.1 million dollars in 2011, a 1476 WASP). Despite injury problems, Jair Jurrjens has still managed to put a 3 WAR average together over the past 3 years, which is worth 9 million dollars. He too will be in arbitration and he made 3.25 million in 2011. With the Braves payroll, they can afford about 2 million dollars per ever Win Above Replacement. This means that Jurrjens is worth about 6 million dollars to the Braves, and Prado is worth about about 4 million. I am not an arbitration expert, so I don't know how much they will probably get, but this metric makes the idea of the Braves trading these two less absurd than I thought when I originally heard the news. Prado has a slightly above average OBP of .341, PPG of 1.03, 2.83 PAPP, and OPS of .775. All these numbers are above average or replacement, but not amazing. Prado's well known flexibility defensively is overrated, as he has a -.3 D-WAR for his career. His Secondary Average (.212), and ISO (.141) are very pedestrian and concerning. While his Runs Created per Game is 5.1 and his Offensive Winning Percentage is .540, he walks less than average. His PPS is nothing real impressive at 92.69. As for Jurrjens, even though he was heralded as one of the best pitcher's in the league while healthy, he had a 1.3 PE and 2.33 Adjusted PE, hardly one of the league's best. His career PE is .98, with an Adjusted PE of 1.46. As bizarre as it sounds, he has obviously been helped out by the Braves defense (with perhaps some luck as well). His career TR is 9.68, and in 2011 it was 10.23. This is pretty good, and Jurrjens seems to be a relatively valuable pitcher. I think for either one it depends on how much they get in arbitration, if they go above the numbers listed above, it makes sense to trade them. With that said, it is imperative they don't miss on the trade and get real value back.

Is Josh Hamilton Overrated?

Over the past 3 years, including his MVP year, Josh Hamilton has a 4.03 WAR average, worth 12.1 million. He will make 13.75 million in 2012. Hamilton has a career .366 OBP. To give you an idea of how that fits in with the league, there were 29 players (that had the minimum amount of plate appearances) with equal or better than .366 OBP in 2011. This list includes the ones you might expect like Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, but also includes guys like Alberto Callaspo and Casey Kotchman. However, it is not as if Hamilton sucks at getting on base, as one assumes that each of the 30 teams have 13 hitters, Hamilton would still be in the top 8%. Hamilton was also the OPS leader in 2010, and has a career OPS of .909, which would have been 16th in the Majors in 2011. His PAPP is very solid at 2.4, and his PPG is really nice at 1.61. Known for exciting defense of plays and disregard for his own safety, he has an under average fielding percentage and slightly above average range factor. In 2011, he cost the Rangers at least 3 runs with his fielding overall, and in his career is actually worth -1 run defensively, meaning he slightly hurts his team in the field. His 2010 MVP season should have alarmed some people, as he had an absolutely unrealistic .390 BABIP. It should have been pretty obvious that he could not repeat that season in 2011. His Secondary Average and ISO are both pretty good at .336 and .234 (these two were both about the same in 2010 and 2011, perhaps showing that these statistics are more reliable and less fluky). His career Runs Created per game is impressive at 7.5, giving him an Offensive Winning Percentage of .688. Certainly everyone would like to have him in their offense. There are certainly flaws in Hamilton's offense game though, as he walks slightly less than league average and sees less pitches per plate appearance than average. This is concerning because not only do you think a dangerous power hitter should be able to walk and make a pitcher work more than normal, but it also means inconsistency. Players that are able to walk and see more pitches are almost always more consistent hitters, and for Hamilton consistency seems to be somewhat a problem. One year he is one of the leagues best, the next, he is just above average. So to answer the question, yes Josh Hamilton is a bit overrated. There is no question he is an exciting player, and that he is an above average player, but he simply does not belong in the class of Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols, and the leagues best players.

Should the Giants trade Jonathan Sanchez?

Jonathan Sanchez made 4.8 million in 2011, and arbitration will decide how much he will make in 2012. In 2011, he had a WAR of just .1 in 101 innings. Over the past 3 years, Sanchez has a 1.63 WAR average, worth 4.89 million according to the Halladay Standard. However, according to the Giants payroll (8th in the MLB), Sanchez's production would be worth about 4.46 million. According to this metric, Sanchez will certainly be overpaid in 2012. So it certainly seems that he would be worth trading away. In his career, Sanchez has a great -1.44 PE (-1.4 Adjusted PE), but a very pedestrian 8.17 TR. When PE and TR disagree on the quality of a pitcher, I am more inclined to agree with TR because it is more encompassing, not to mention that WAR sides more with TR. He is a very good strikeout pitcher, which is why his PE is so good, but he basically cancels it out with all the free passes he gives up. His best year in 2010 was colored by a very low BABIP .252 and a FIP of almost a full run over his ERA. His career FIP is very unimpressive and very average at 4.30. He doesn't give up many home runs (about .9 per 9 innings), and gives up as many groundballs and flyballs. He just isn't very impressive and isn't worth the salary he will get in 2012 (and will be a free agent after the season) so it makes a lot of sense for the Giants to see what they can get for him.