Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Too Many Words on Rhiner Cruz

Statistically, Rhiner Cruz has been one of the worst pitchers in the Majors this year. Selected by the Astros in the Rule 5 draft, Cruz threw 59.1 innings in AA with the Mets last year and was not very unimpressive at all in relief with a 4.58 FIP. This year, he has a 143 FIP - and 4.89 SIERA. He is walking 13.2 % of the batters he faces (exactly the same as David Wright's walk rate this year) and striking out less than 16% of them.

On Tuesday, he nearly drilled Andrew McCutchen in the head. He has hit 2 batters this year (3 if you count his rehab assignment in AAA), but there have been several times this year where he has been a serious safety hazard, drawing dirty looks from opposing teams.

Something I've noticed is that the Astros have been fiddling with his release point all year. He is coming in more sidearmed than he was earlier in the year. These release point charts kind of help point that out:

There is some difference there, but it isn't big, at least not as big as I thought it was.

Either way, he is interesting because he is averaging 95.47 MPH on his fastball (the good kind of interesting, as one could say his extreme wildness and potential to seriously injure people is interesting in a sadistic sort of way). Already at 25, it would take a really drastic change for him to harness the fastball, but you can see why the Astros took a chance on him in the Rule 5 draft. 

Monday, September 3, 2012

Soft Tossing Lefties Scouting Reports: Bywater and Locke

Matt Bywater made his AA debut on Monday, pitching against the Harrisburg Senators. He was the Orioles 7th round pick in 2010 out of Pepperdine University. The lefty has a a sidearmed delivery, so I don't see how he is a starter. I hate to stereotype someone as soon as they throw their first pitch, but I can't really think of any sidearmed starters in the Majors (Bruce Chen probably counts, perhaps Paul Maholm as well, although his platoon splits have always been terrible). His career splits have been about what you would expect. He is pretty dominant against lefties (2.46 FIP, 2.51 SIERA), but mediocre to bad against righties (4.58 FIP, 4.32 SIERA). He threw a lots of changeups. They had decent downward movement and dip (it was a pitch he was more concerned about locating low the zone than throwing them in the dirt). He was missing a lot to his arm side.
It also looks like he has a low moving fastball. The pitch was hit pretty hard by righties, but could be a ground-ball pitch against lefties. He got some weak ground-ball swings from lefties. He has been a good ground-ball pitcher in the minors, with a ground-ball rate of 52.1% over the last two years. While I don't think he is a pitcher that will get a lot of swings and misses in the upper levels, his K% has been good over the last two years as well.
I could see him as a guy you bring in to throw a full inning when the lineup is lefty-righty-lefty and he can just throw all changeups to the righty in the middle. He threw mainly changes to righties, and threw quite a bit to lefties as well. He could also be a LOOGY or a AAA all-star, but I do think he would provide some relief value to a big league club in the future.

Jeff Locke made his first MLB start in 2012 on Monday against the Astros and wasn't bad (6/1 K/BB, 60% GB, 3.91 FIP). He started four (horrible) games for the Pirates last season and had pitched in 2 games as a reliever earlier this year. In AAA as a starter (24 starts), he was solid, with a 3.24 FIP.

Locke was pretty off-speed heavy (I won't use a lot of Pitch F/X since everything is so small sample size and I will be done with this post before the data from this game become available),especially to righties.
He has a curve at about 78-81 MPH (called a slider sometimes by Pitch F/X) that has some good bite. However, it has a tendency to stay up and turns into a batting practice pitch when it does.
His change is the pitch that scouts always liked about Locke and it sits at about 81-82 (averaged 81.4 MPH according to Fangraphs).The lefty's Fastball was only at 90 MPH (90.1 average) and was best when he threw it down. I think he has the tools to get right-handers out enough to be a starter, but he certainly won't be a dominating one. If he turns out to be a league average starter, I would be mildly surprised and the Pirates should be thrilled.

Times to first: Part 5


1. Jose Lobaton (Rays): 4.66

2. Francisco Peguero (Giants): 4.05

3. Jimmy Paredes (Astros): 4.12

4. Brandon Crawford (Giants): 4.15

5. Ben Zobrist (Rays): 4.27

6. Ian Kinsler (Rangers): 4.18

7. Brandon Barnes (Astros): 4.28

8. Jason Donald (Indians): 4.22

9. Jay Bruce (Reds): 4.22

10. Jason Kipnis (Indians): 4.15

11. Anthony Allioti (Athletics AA): 4.60

12. Guilder Rodriquez (Rangers AA): 4.24

13. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals): 4.37

14. Danny Espinosa (Nationals): 4.15

15. Omar Infante (Tigers): 4.14

16. Gerald Laird (Tigers): 4.16

17. Steve Lombardozzi (Nationals): 4.01

18. Byron Buxton (Twins RK): 4.15

19. Carlos Santana (Indians): 4.58

20. Matt Downs (Astros): 4.38

Friday, August 31, 2012

Notes on Durham Bulls and Charlotte Knights

For no particular reason, I watched the Charlotte Knights (White Sox AAA) and Durham Bulls (Rays AAA) on MiLB.TV (a lot of it has to do with the quality of broadcast they have). I then decided to write a little bit about a few of the players I saw in the game.

Durham Bulls:

Jim Paduch was the right-handed (spot) starter. He was at 91-92 MPH and very hittable. He threw some 89-90 MPH fastballs with a little more movement and sink. His change was inconsistent in movement and location at 82-83 MPH. He mixed in an occasional 73 MPH curveball. Paduch had a lot of grip problems in the game and it made it really hard to make a read on his command/control. He is not a strikeout type guy, but could and probably should be a ground-ball guy. I am not sure why he throws that fastball high at really any time.

Cole Figueroa struggled at 3rd base in the game. He is listed as a 2nd baseman and is usually considered a good defender. He is a little guy that was acquired from Padres in Jason Bartlett trade with a little pop (not really a home run threat, but could hit some line drives and doubles).

Tim Beckham is probably the top prospect on either team. He has speed, athleticism, arm, and can hit the low pitch with some authority.  He hit the ball hard and on a line every time he made contact. His plate discipline is not very good though, and probably the weakest part of his game.

Henry Wrigley has been an interesting player statistically, but had some ugly chases on breaking balls. Both his numbers and his age suggest that he is something like a "mistake" AAAA hitter, and the empirical evidence seems to confirm that.

Leslie Anderson's swing was not pretty and he was chasing just about everything. He was able to make quite a bit of contact, but it was with below average foot speed.

Dane De La Rosa sat at 91-93 MPH with his fastball but didn't have much control of it at all. It is somewhat flat, but goes in on right-handed hitters. His breaking pitch looks like a curve at 81-82 MPH (it is either that or a terrible soft slider). It hangs there and doesn't have great or big break. He threw one good one, and it was the last pitch of his outing.

Charlotte Knights:

Josh Phegley is a former 1st round pick. Of course he doesn't run well, he is a catcher. You can see some power though, as he pounded the ball off the wall when he looked a little fooled on a changeup. There is some swing and miss in his game, but he got a breaking ball from Josh Lueke (who was 93-94 MPH but had no control over his off-speed pitches and was getting hit hard) and pulled it over the fence. Defensively, he didn't look that great, having some problems catching and blocking the breaking ball. His overall receiving skills just do not appear to be very good.

Scott Carroll was the starter for the Knights. The veteran RHP has a 88-91 MPH moving fastball. He has plenty of size at 6-4, so you think he will be able to get on top of the ball. He has a 82 MPH slider, that seems a little softer than its velocity. In other words, it doesn't "bite" hard. He can't really throw it for strikes.While Carroll can get AAA hitters to swing at it, I don't see how he could get MLB hitters out with it with any kind of consistency. He has no real 3rd pitch.

Jhan Marinez hit 95 MPH on his fastball and can locate it low. His command was shaky and he didn't show off a 2nd pitch, but the velocity is fun and he is still young.

Scouting Report on Sioux Falls Pheasants


Joe Anthonsen is a career independent ball player and is the small lead-off hitter for the Pheasants. He put a good swing on a breaking ball but doesn't seem to have much power or bat speed (mistake pitch batting average hitter). Cory Morales was the shortstop and is another career indy ball player. He botched an easy play and offensively, his swing/size doesn't give him much power. He chased a slider to strikeout. Jared Bolden was picked in the 9th round by the Texas Rangers in 2008, and even played 6 games in AAA in 2009. He played 21 games in AA last year (and 94 in A+, hitting .271/.314/.418). He had some really ugly at-bats, with a not good left-handed swing. He runs okay but is not a burner. His best tool is his arm, as it was excellent.

Roger Abercrombie was a 23rd round pick by the Dodgers way back in 1999. He played in 180 MLB games between the Marlins and Astros from 2006-2008. In that time, he had a -.3 FWAR, with a negative UZR (and an even 0 DRS), positive baserunning rating, and wRC+ of just 61. He spent 2009 in AAA Round Rock (Rangers) and had a wOBA + of 95. He has since been in Independent ball. He has good size, but he really seems to lack some bat speed. He has an open stance but closes it before the ball gets there. He hit the ball off the end of the bat, but it looked like there is some raw power though. There was just a lot of bad swings.In centerfield, his arm is strong enough, but he made a really wild throw. He has good range in the field despite being 31.

Jake Taylor was picked in the 35th round by the Marlins in 2005, but went to college instead. After putting up some big numbers at Missouri Southern State University, he went straight to independent ball, where he has struggled. He runs okay, and it looks like he can drive the ball the other way pretty well. He chased out of the zone to strikeout though, and seems prone to do so.

Cesar Nicolas was a 5th round pick by the Diamondbacks back in 2004. He got to AA and put up decent numbers but found himself in independent ball before getting a short stint in the Tigers organization (even getting a few games in AAA, but he is obviously back in independent ball again). He has no real speed at all and the plate discipline is a question. He can pull the ball well though.

Al Quintana was picked in the 40th round in 2005, and unlike most 40th round picks, Quintana made it to AAA. He played in just 17 games at that level though. He has a good looking arm behind the plate, but he was chasing pitches out of the zone.
Cristian Guerrero was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Brewers in 1997. In a long minor league career, he spent some time with Seattle, Washington, and Angels affiliates before going into independent ball in 2008. He looked just lost at the plate. His plate discipline was awful.

Mark Michael got a relatively short run in the Pirates system as a UDFA in the mid-2000s, but has been an Indy Ball veteran since then (and not a particularly good one). The starting right-handed pitcher was sitting at just 85-86 MPH on his fastball, getting up to 87-88 MPH later, and touching 89-90 MPH once each. He threw a rare changeup at 78 MPH with no real movement and it stayed up. His curveball was 75-76 MPH when he could throw it for strikes, and 71-72 MPH when it was in the dirt. It doesn't have loopy downward break, but it was his feature pitch. He was grunting throughout the entire outing, indicating some effort in his delivery. It may account for some of the variances in his velocity, although it doesn't look like a messy delivery with the eye.

Kyle Mertins is a RHP with an interesting delivery in which it looks like his foot is already down by the time his arm comes over the top. He threw a lot of mediocre sliders that were 82-84 MPH. His fastball was 89-91, hitting 92 MPH. It is straight and stays high, but at least with his slider he works both eye levels. Command/control is an issue for him. After being an okay reliever at Cal State Fullerton, Mertins was drafted in the 28th round by the Braves in 2010. He never had a good strikeout rate, but didn't walk too many batters and kept the ball in the park, putting up decent numbers but his career with the Braves ended after spending all of 2011 in Rome (A).

Alan Deratt is a beefy right-handed reliever who made it to AA with the Rockies (17th round pick in 2008). His overall K/BB in the minors was not bad, but he really wasn't given much of a chance in AA, pitching in just 3 outings. He hit 90 MPH on his fastball, with a 80-82 MPH slider with some sharp break. He can throw it for strikes or bury it.

Grand Prairie Air Hogs Scouting Reports

I saw the Grand Prairie Air Hogs of the American Association League twice (I got stuck with two tickets basically), once against the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks (who I already wrote about) and once against the Sioux Falls Pheasants (who I will write about next). Here are the scouting reports:

Andres Rodriquez is the 1st baseman and one of the largest human beings I have ever seen take a baseball field. The monster is 6-6ish 260ish and is just intimidating at field level. He has enough athleticism to not embarrass himself. He has some power and some bat skills.

Yasutsugu Nishimoto was the shortstop in game 1. He showed patience at the plate, but the left-handed hitter has no power and a slap swing. He seemed to struggle against lefties. Defensively, he doesn't have the best range, and he really needs to have plus defense. Bryan Frichter was the shortstop in the 2nd game I saw. His defense overall is blah, with an okay but not great arm. Offensively, he was chasing breaking balls.

Brian Myrow really cranked a ball into the alley and can run pretty well too. At the plate, he shows off a decent eye. However, he really lacks range at 3rd. John Alonzo was burned on the breaking ball. Jairo Perez doesn't have great range at 2nd and you would like to see him run better for someone with his size and style. He is a contact guy, and had a nice hit the other way. He was actually taken out of the 2nd game with an injury.

Jonny Kaplan can run a little bit, but is short, which is a weird profile for left field. He does have a nice arm out there though. Alberto Espinoza showed off a big but inaccurate arm in the first game, in the 2nd game, it just wasn't very good overall. He wasn't very good at blocking pitches either. He seems to have some decent power, especially for a catcher. He chased a really horrible pitch though. Trent Lockwood is a pretty big right fielder. The lefty hitter has a decent eye and a little pop but not pretty swing mechanics. Keanon Smith had a lot of problems on fastballs, even ones that were not that good. He showed off a nice arm in center field though and runs well.

Josh Strawn is scrawny and has somewhat of a messy delivery. The right-hander was sitting at 88-90 MPH and when it stayed straight, he was in trouble. He has a breaking ball at 81-82 MPH and a curve at 74 MPH with decent downward break. His outing started really strong and was certainly better than his stuff as he gave up a few really hard outs. He fields his position really well.

Somehow, he also started the 2nd game I went to as well. He sat at 89-91 MPH with a lot of fastballs early, and showed the ability to sink it. It almost works like a splitter, and when it does, it is his best pitch. He wasn't getting many whiffs and wasn't getting grounders, and gave up a lot of hard hit line drives. His slider didn't provide much speed differential at 87-88 MPH and doesn't have great movement as it goes into lefties. The fastball has some arm side tail and he hit 92-94 MPH in the 4th and hit 93 MPH in the 6th. I didn't see the curve, but I was more impressed the 2nd time I saw him.

Adam Miller wasn't very good overall early but threw a few 89-90 MPH fastballs that exploded late. He also broke a bat with his slider at 82-83 MPH.

Ronnie Morales is a sidearming lefty out of the bullpen. He breaks low with his body, almost like a submarine pitcher, but his arm angle is straight sidearm. His fastball was just 84-86 MPH (hit 88 MPH but didn't control it) but it can't be fun for lefties. He has a sweeping slider at 76 MPH that he showed in warmups but not in the game. He struck out a righty, but it wasn't a very good hitter. He showed a 78 MPH change. His command was solid, and I could see him being useful for an organization, especially if he shows a breaking ball. 

Justin Dowdy is a lefty reliever at 89-92 MPH. He has an interesting strikeout rate but too many walks. He has starter like velocity but his mechanics may not let him be one (and his control certainly won't). He showed an overhand curve in warmups at around 72 MPH.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Times to 1st: Part 4


1. Jorge Soler (Cubs A): 4.40

2. Jason Heyward (Braves): 4.10

3. Freddie Freeman (Braves): 4.51

4. Andruw Jones (Yankees): 4.41

5. Russell Martin (Yankees): 4.55

6. Tyler Greene (Astros): 4.04

7. Brian Bogusevic (Astros): 4.28

8. Mike Baxter (Mets): 4.33

9. Vernon Wells (Angels): 4.32

10. Bryce Harper (Nationals): (about) 4.00 (thanks to Kevin Goldstein)

11. Erik Kratz (Phillies): 4.58

12. Denard Span (Twins): 3.60 (on a bunt)

13. Hunter Pence (Giants): 4.10

14. Hector Sanchez (Giants): 4.47

15. Reed Johnson (Braves): 4.22

16. Chipper Jones (Braves): 4.54

17. Ben Revere (Twins): 4.06

18. Mike Olt (Rangers) 4.39

19. Joe Mauer (Twins): 4.30

20. Chris Herrman (Twins AA): 4.67