Why we shouldn't really be surprised with Kelly Shoppach's performance

Kelly Shoppach became just the second catcher in MLB playoff history to hit 2HRs and 5RBIs in one playoff game (Johnny Bench was the other one). In game two, he walked with bases loaded, driving in a run. What is perhaps more amazing is that he was lifted for a pinch hitter later in that game. When you look at statistics, none of this should surprise you. Despite having a very unflattering .176 BA and .268 OBP, Shoppach had a .344 OBP, 2.71 PAPP, and a homer every 15 at bats against lefties. Against righties, he had a .115 BA and .192 OBP and a .32 PPG. He is simply a platoon catcher, I have no idea why he ever plays against righties, but he can hit lefties decently well (and both C.J. Wilson and Derek Holland, the game 1 and 2 starters, are lefties). While probably not the most likely thing to happen in the series, his success in the first two games shouldn't really surprise anyone. Just don't expect him to have any success in game 3 against Lewis, a right hander.

Moneyball Review: Is Johnny Damon really overrated?

After the 2001 season, the Athletics had to replace, as emphasized in Moneyball, Jason Giambi, Jason Isringhausen, and Johnny Damon. After Billy Beane hires Jonah Hill's character, we learn that Johnny Damon is "overrated" and not worth the money the Red Sox gave him. Now regular readers of the blog know that I am very much on the Johnny Damon bandwagon, so we will see if the numbers side with Moneyball's assessment, or what I have said in previous articles on Damon. First let's tackle the claim that Damon was not worth what the Red Sox paid him. In his 4 years in Boston, Damon's WASP's were as follows: 1542, 12500, 1818, 3437. So two years, he was very much worth it, had one really bad season, and was slightly overpaid his final year. This makes the claim that he is not worth it shaky at best. In Damon's one year in Oakland, his WASP was a very solid 2629, and he only made $150,000 less than he did in his first year in Boston. According to the main statistic of Sabermetrics, Wins after Replacement, he was very much worth his salary, contrary to the claims of Moneyball. The main problem Moneyball raised with Damon was On Base Percentage. In Oakland, it wasn't that good, at just .324. However, as you learn in statistics there are always outliers. Damon's Oakland season was certainly an outlier as far as OBP goes. His career OBP is .353. In Boston, it was .362, New York was .363, Kansas City .351, and Detroit .355. In his career, he has had a nice 1.4 PPG and a pretty good 2.52 PAPP in his career. I think this is one of the (few things really) things that Billy Beane's Moneyball A's got wrong (to be clear, they didn't resign Damon because they couldn't, not because they didn't want to. I am just referring to the notion that Damon isn't worth it).

Free agent watch: Matt Palmer

As MLB Trade Rumors reports, 22 AAA players (21 one of them played some in the Majors this year) opted for release today. One of those was Matt Palmer of the LA Angels. In his major league career, he has an okay 2.26 PE as a reliever and a pretty poor 5.038 PE as a starter. Weirdly, the strikeout ratio is the same as both a reliever and starter (4.7 per 9). He has a decent groundball to flyball ratio at 3:2. He is not arbitration eligible, even though he is 32. This means that he will cost nothing. He can't be a long term solution in the bullpen, and shouldn't be used as a starter (unless its just an emergency) but he could be a long reliever for some team, and that can be valuable. Expect someone to pick this guy up and I expect him to be pretty successful if kept in the bullpen.

Nfl Picks: Week 4

Big D in bold, Me in Italics

Lions over Cowboys
Buccaneers over Colts
Packers over Broncos
Ravens over Jets

More Rays awesomeness: the Jason Bartlett Trade

The Rays faced a first round exit against the Texas Rangers in 2010. During the offseason, they lost their entire bullpen, traded one of their starting pitchers, lost their left-fielder and first basemen (both All-Stars) to free agency, as well as trading their short-stop (another All-Star caliber player) Jason Bartlett. They sent Bartlett, along with some cash, to the San Diego Padres for pitchers Adam Russell, Brandon Gomes, Cesar Ramos, and infielder Cole Figueroa. Bartlett put up just a .1 WAR for the last place Padres, with a .90 PPG and 3.11 PAPP. These aren't good numbers obviously. Worst of all, he made $4 million, giving him a putrid WASP of 40000. Cole Figueroa has still not reached the majors for the Rays, but the 3 pitchers have. Russell threw 32.2 innings in relief for the Rays in 2011, with a .2 WAR  and a 3.531 PE. Even though that is not real good pitching efficiency, according to WAR, they have already won the trade this year. Not to mention Russell only was paid $421,000 this year. Brandon Gomes threw 37 innings of relief (along with a 3 up 3 down, 2 strikeout inning in game 1 of the 2011 ALDS) for the Rays, giving them a .4 WAR and a -1.069 PE. Cesar Ramos threw 43.2 innings in '11 for the Rays, posting a 0 WAR, and a 1.157 PE. So in the trade, the Rays got 3 relievers that cost nothing, give them decent production, and they control them for a long time. The Padres got an overpaid, struggling offensively, shortstop.

Moneyball Review: Jeremy Giambi

One of the key players in the movie Moneyball is Jason Giambi's little brother, Jeremy Giambi. In honor of Jeremy's birthday yesterday, it is time he got an article. The movie, while mostly accurate, was misleading on the Jeremy Giambi front. The movie sort of inferred that Je. Giambi was brought in at the beginning of the 2002 season to the dismay of scouts. This isn't really true. He played for the A's in both 2000 and 2001 as well. In those two years, he gave them a total of 1.3 WAR. As portrayed in the movie (it is highly unlikely that he was so whimsical on the trade, and it didn't make sense in the movie because Jonah Hill's character was against the trade), he was traded in the middle of the 2002 season for John Mabry. In the 2002 season, Je. Giambi posted a .4 WAR before the trade, and a 1.21 PPG and 2.4 PAPP, solid numbers. When John Mabry came in for Je. Giambi to finish the 2002 season, he posted a 2 WAR, a 2.71 PAPP, and a .89 PPG. These weren't near the numbers Je. Giambi put up, but he was better defensively (something that Beane declared he didn't care about in the movie). Mabry was making less at 500,000 (to Je. Giambi's 1 million), meaning the A's got better overall value from Mabry. However, according to the principles of Beane's Moneyball philosophy, this move didn't make a great amount of sense.

Free Agent: Clint Barmes

Astros Shortstop Clint Barmes is a now a free agent. Should the Astros resign him? They originally acquired Barmes in a trade for pitcher Felipe Paulino before the 2011 season from the Colorado Rockies. This turned out to be on the more quiet lopsided trades of the year. Paulino didn't win any games (and lost 4) for Colorado, posting a 7.36 ERA (all in the bullpen). This posted a -.3 WAR. He was then traded to Kansas City for cash. He figured out things in Kansas City, starting 20 games, an ERA of 4.11, and a WAR of 1.9. This means, according to the Halladay Standard (see Page on WASP above), he was worth 5.7 million. Colorado received much much less than that from Kansas City. This year for the Astros, Clint Barmes posted a .82 PPG and 3.07 PAPP. These aren't real good numbers, fitting in with the Astros anemic offense. However, mainly because of his defense, he posted a 2.9 WAR (1.5 WAR on defense). This equals a nice 1351 WASP. This means the trade was an easy win for the Astros and a disaster for the Rockies (the Rockies had to trade for Mark Ellis during the year to replace Barmes). Now on to the question as to whether the Astros should re-sign Barmes. According to the Halladay Standard, he deserved 8.7 million for his production last year. However, his WAR was better in 11 than it was in 09, and 10. It is always risky, and rarely smart to give a player money because of one year of production. In the past 3 years, he has averaged a 2.3 WAR. According to that metric, he is worth 6.1 million dollars. In his career, he has actually posted a .99 PPG, meaning (if track record means a thing) you can actually expect better offense than he produced last year. However, the track record also shows you can't expect the defense you got from him this year. There are reports that the Astros could send Jimmy Paredes to Shortstop, and start Chris Johnson at third next year and not re-sign Barmes. Paredes was a liability at 3rd (-.2 Defensive WAR) and its hard to expect he would be better at SS, but he was decent on offense (.5 Offensive WAR in 46 games) with a .89 PPG (1.6 PPG in AA). Chris Johnson has been terrible on defense (-2.3 defensive WAR in 212 games), and mediocre at best on offense (2.0 O-WAR in his career, .9 PPG). This is certainly a big drop off from Clint Barmes. It seems that if you can get Barmes for 4 or 5 million, you should keep him if you are the Astros. If he is going to cost more, I would pass and pursue other options. Carlos Lee is on his final year of his massive deal and should be moved, and getting a SS prospect (along with pitching) could/should be part of the package.