2012 Super Bowl Prediction

Big D in Bold, I in Italics
(note: in the past 2 years, I have picked the Super Bowl correctly, while Big D has been incorrect).

Giants versus Patriots

How we did: Divisional Round

Big D in bold. I in italics.

49ers dunk over Saints
Excuse: Obviously didn't see the Saints turning over the ball 5 times. Alex Smith looks like a totally new guy.
Patriots destroy Broncos
Ravens knock off Texans
Giants shock Packers
Excuse: Wow. This was my second most sure pick this week. Horrible secondary play, fumbles, and bad line play made the Packers look like a very pedestrian team. We probably should have saw this coming, but 15-1 made it hard to take those flaws seriously.

Big D: 2-2, 3-5 in Playoffs, 60-42 overall
I: 2-2, 3-5 in Playoffs, 62-40 overall

NFL Picks: Week 19 Divisional Round

Big D in Bold. I in Italics

Saints versus 49ers
Patriots versus Broncos
Ravens versus Texans
Packers versus Giants

How much does QB success depend on the team?: Part 1

Unlike baseball, success for a player in football depends a lot on the success of the players around the player. For example, Justin Verlander's strikeout totals have nothing to do with how his teammate Brad Penny pitched. Ichiro Suzuki's terrible 2011 defense had nothing to do with the Mariner's anemic offense or problems on the infield. I wanted to see if I could measure how much a quarterback's success had to do with him or the team he was on. To do this, you have to some how isolate the quarterback from the team. The best way to do this, that I can think of, is to use quarterbacks who switched teams during their careers. So I included the last year's passer rating with the previous team, and then either the first year with the new team or his total numbers with the first team. I used 200 Attempts as a rough requirement (I did make some exceptions). I only wanted to use consecutive years so people like Vick and Grossman are thrown out. I did this because a lot can change in two years for a player (same reason I didn't do baseball write-ups on people like Jamie Moyer and Manny Ramirez for the 2012 season).I including Russell Wilson in the spreadsheet because I found the difference between his 2010 season with NC State (where he was a solid quarterback) and his 2011 season with Wisconsin (where he was one of the best in the nation). I then included some notable running backs that have played with multiple teams and compared their average yards per carry.

Average difference in passer rating (excluding Russell Wilson) is 6.59. Just to give you an idea, that is about the difference between Tony Romo and Matt Schuab in 2011 (as well as the difference between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tim Tebow). The biggest difference was McNabb's 15.8, which is about the difference between Phillip Rivers and Kevin Kolb. So it would seem, at least in the sample we have, that there is a difference, but for the most part not a huge difference for quarterbacks depending on what quality of a team they play on.

Runningbacks had an average difference of .65 yards per carry. This is a huge difference. So, at least it would seem according to these samples, that things like offensive line affect a running back much more than a quarterback. In Part 2, I will use college statistics for quarterback and try to see which statistics best translate from NCAA division 1 to the NFL.

Thoughts on the NFL labor dispute

For those not familiar with the situation, there may not be a NFL season this fall because of a labor dispute. Simply, the contract between the players and owners is up, and they have to write a new one. They can’t agree to what should be in the new contract, so the owners may end up locking the players out. I am a football fan, I enjoy the sport, so obviously I want to see them play. The main argument seems to be (while at one point it seemed to be as to whether there should be an 18 game schedule instead of a 16 game schedule, talk of this seems to have died down) as to how to share 9 billion dollars in revenue. How can they not share 9 billion dollars? The players want a bigger piece of the pie than what they have been getting, while the owners want to keep their much larger piece and perhaps expand it. The greed is indicative of the capitalistic system we find ourselves in. Its hard to be sympathetic with players who make millions of dollars (the big reps and union defenders have been Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, two of the highest paid players in the league, how come millionaires can have unions but not teachers? I am waiting for Republican lawmakers to go after these unions), but the owners are even greedier. They are billionaires.

Alternatives.
This system is a joke, the fans are not thought of, only the greed of millionaires and billionaires is considered. I suggest that each city, that has a team in it, owns their team, or people are allowed to buy stocks in the team like the Green Bay Packers already allow (they do not have a real owner, instead people can own part of the team). In this system, the greedy billionaire is replaced, and players would get paid between 100,000 dollars to 250,000 dollars a year, depending on their talent level, get retirement packages (that comes from the league) of half their average salaries for the rest of their lives and would of course be free to work after they retire from football if they liked (and could pay into and draw from social security like the rest of us). For city owned teams, any profits made off the team goes to the city, which will hold ballot initiatives to decide how to spend the money. After all, the teams make money by people spending their money by going to the games, and buying memorabilia, so shouldn’t the people get back that money in some way? Or should the money go to billionaires and millionaires?



I originally posted this article on my political blog in April.